MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

Tom Cruises Left Nut

butt1 wrote: »

should be banned from this site,such rubbish,no real truth or basics

I see a bridge... with a troll under it

:rolleyes:

Su Campu

t|nt|n wrote: »

I see a bridge... with a troll under it

:rolleyes:

He's on a yellow....

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

He's on a yellow....

I actually googled what you typed cause I thought it was a troll song

irish1967

t|nt|n wrote: »

I actually googled what you typed cause I thought it was a troll song

Submarine ?

up for anything

The Daily Mash

Britain to be hit by entirely typical weather
17-10-11
TEMPERATURES in the UK are going to fall sharply over the coming weeks because that is what happens at this time of year, it has been claimed.

During winter snow can often reach the ground
Meteorologists believe that winter, a spell of short, cold days commonly defined as a season, will be more or less exactly what you would expect.

Professor Henry Brubaker of the Institute for Studies said: "Household fuel costs will rise considerably as families try to increase the temperature of their homes.

"People on the verge of death may die.

"Ice and snow will create icy, snowy conditions.

"Your car will refuse to start.

"Because it's winter.

"It's really nothing to freak out about, unless you're a pre-Neanderthal cave dweller who believes sunsets are caused by Gark, the angry moon god."

He added: "There's a high probability that this winter will be followed by another sudden, weather-related phenomenon known as spring."

Housewife Nikki Hollis said: "The important thing is to stay inside, carry a flaming torch at all times and don't be sentimental about eating your plumpest child."

:D

M.T. Cranium

Ha ha, this got edited out of the Daily Mash story:

Dr Heinz Crackoffer from the Institute for Theoretical Postulating said "the Sun is in a particularly solar phase and could be the unknown quantity in all of this; we greatly suspect it has a role in weather," and showed me a diagram of an instrument he calls a temperaturemeter which shows a mysterious correlation between the Sun and temperature variations. "This could change everything we know about everything," he added.

hellboy99

Reports of snow falling in Monaghan now?

tzfrantic

on moutains thought

davidsr20

I'm off to the alps in December for some proper snow

Forum Monkey

When Is the snow meant to hit Meath?

Speak Now

Forum Monkey wrote: »

When Is the snow meant to hit Meath?

December maybe not until January.

Blizzard 2010

a.k.a Roger Smith on Net Wrather also.:eek:

Duiske

MT, do ENSO forecasts have much bearing on your long range forecasting ? And if they do, what are your thoughts on the latest NINO Ensemble Forecast, which seems to suggest a much "deeper" La Nina than last year. The ensemble mean actually seems to go off the chart in late Feb - early March.

butt1

anymore bad weather on its way,dont think so

delw

butt1 wrote: »

anymore bad weather on its way,dont think so

thanks for the forecast

gbee

From a starting point in mid-October, we consider the five month period November to March, with "climatological winter" defined as being the months of December, January and February, whereas "meteorological winter" can, as we saw last year, fall in any of the five months in the Irish climate. [/unquote]

Ireland follows the equinox:
Winter: November, December, January.
Spring: February, March, April
Summer: May, June, July
Autumn: August, September, October.

England are one month adrift forward with August firmly as a Summer Month etc. Parts of Europe may drift more.

We get several threads on boards arguing the seasons, last year I said we get six months of winter and one of those months is in June or July. I hope every one who comes to the weather forum reads your post.

Thanks.

thetonynator

February in Ireland can usually be considered winter in fairness, it is generally almost as cold as January, and often colder than December.

M.T. Cranium

As to La Nina, and it does look like a strong episode is on the way ... have to think that its correlations with European weather are generally weak but the approach that I am taking would sweep up any cause and effect ... if La Nina has the same general explanation as other weather phenomena, then the methodology would draw on more than random number of La Nina analogues. In fact I checked the analogue sets and found almost no El Nino cases, just a mixture of neutral and La Nina cases. So this indicates that the methodology, while not driven by Pacific factors in particular, is not running at cross purposes to them at present time either.

I suppose the simplified explanation of La Nina effects on climate upstream from Europe would be preference for cold/trough conditions western North America, mild/ridge eastern North America. The question however then becomes wavelength and amplitude because that pattern with slight variations can coexist with a number of different outcomes for Europe.

bb1234567

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

As to La Nina, and it does look like a strong episode is on the way ... have to think that its correlations with European weather are generally weak but the approach that I am taking would sweep up any cause and effect ... if La Nina has the same general explanation as other weather phenomena, then the methodology would draw on more than random number of La Nina analogues. In fact I checked the analogue sets and found almost no El Nino cases, just a mixture of neutral and La Nina cases. So this indicates that the methodology, while not driven by Pacific factors in particular, is not running at cross purposes to them at present time either.

I suppose the simplified explanation of La Nina effects on climate upstream from Europe would be preference for cold/trough conditions western North America, mild/ridge eastern North America. The question however then becomes wavelength and amplitude because that pattern with slight variations can coexist with a number of different outcomes for Europe.

so will this winter end up like the last because of the strong la nina?

gbee

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

How are the natural signs looking this autumn?

We feed the Starlings, and a few doves and a family of Magpies all year round.

Yesterday they were feeding at usual as I went out the back to hang up my thermometer, they did not fly away as they usually do, as I walked closed to them [in my surprise] they did, in bits and one stayed.

As I was hanging my gear on the line they came back, I looked at them and they ignored me, I walked back in passing [again] close to them and one still stayed as the others flew or hopped away and were already back at the feeding station as I entering the door.

My normal observation is that once disturbed they flock off and may not be seen again until the next day or even a couple of days later.

Musicman2000

gbee wrote: »

We feed the Starlings, and a few doves and a family of Magpies all year round.

Yesterday they were feeding at usual as I went out the back to hang up my thermometer, they did not fly away as they usually do, as I walked closed to them [in my surprise] they did, in bits and one stayed.

As I was hanging my gear on the line they came back, I looked at them and they ignored me, I walked back in passing [again] close to them and one still stayed as the others flew or hopped away and were already back at the feeding station as I entering the door.

My normal observation is that once disturbed they flock off and may not be seen again until the next day or even a couple of days later.

and what dose it mean? they are stocking up:) there is a serious amount of red berrys on Holly bushes if that means anything:D

gbee

Musicman2000 wrote: »

and what dose it mean? they are stocking up:) there is a serious amount of red berrys on Holly bushes if that means anything:D

Yes, it was said to be the sign of a severe winter ~ stocking up as you say, except more like laying on fat ~ but the same thing essentially ~

The Berries should be very much brighter too.

NIALL D

nearly all the trees around are just about leafless .. with the last few weeks there is brown leaves everywhere , makes it worse when its wet if driving , makes the roads really slippy..

a good few trees/hedge at home , cant think of the name , died because of the cold last year , they never grew any leaves this year at all , branches are all withered and everything....

Musicman2000

gbee wrote: »

Yes, it was said to be the sign of a severe winter ~ stocking up as you say, except more like laying on fat ~ but the same thing essentially ~

The Berries should be very much brighter too.

As you mention that they are very bright looking, thoese birds must know something we dont:)

gbee

NIALL D wrote: »

they never grew any leaves this year at all , branches are all withered and everything....

This year was a very bad year for growth because of the incessant wind, it was great year for temperature and mild conditions but there were several dies backs due to the aforementioned continuous wind which blew for almost six months non stop.

Lots of distress and whilst other conditions were beneficial, when the winds stopped, there was just not enough time left.

maquiladora

Musicman2000 wrote: »

As you mention that they are very bright looking, thoese birds must know something we dont

Now I have this image of a bird in a prison cell being interrogated by Kiefer Sutherland.

butt1

maquiladora wrote: »

Now I have this image of a bird in a prison cell being interrogated by Kiefer Sutherland.

nice one

Riskymove

maquiladora wrote: »

Now I have this image of a bird in a prison cell being interrogated by Kiefer Sutherland.

Jack meets MT




"Last Chance......What time will the goddam Snow kick off???"

butt1

is it snowing there m.t.

dermiek

Thanks for reminding me to put out bird seed. I'll do that tomorrow.
I have noticed that the birds tend to stock up on peanuts and seed about 10 days or so before a cold snap.
Also, I had carpal tunnel surgery 2 years ago. That "plays up" in cold weather.
Have to go, my wrist is itchy.....