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MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast
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Thanks for reminding me to put out bird seed. I'll do that tomorrow.
I have noticed that the birds tend to stock up on peanuts and seed about 10 days or so before a cold snap.
Also, I had carpal tunnel surgery 2 years ago. That "plays up" in cold weather.
Have to go, my wrist is itchy.....
not sure if serious or taking the mick:eek: 0 -
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I would just like to say that in M.T's preliminary winter forecast for last year he did go for a mild Feb. This was posted on Sept 25th 2010 and had the winter very nailed.
This is my preliminary winter forecast ... I will issue a final forecast around mid-November.
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Where can i get info on joes earlier thoughts?
a guy on another forum has been emailing joe and telling us what joe replied back with- here are some of the things joe bastardi sent to the guy-
this is quote from guy on other forum not me ''well, I tend to listen to Joe Bastardi. Although he hasn't released his winter forecast yet, I e mailed him and asked what he thought was likely to happen to the NAO and AO during winter. He e mailed back and said they are both expected to go negative from late November, then into December and January.
and also, on various articles on weatherbell, Joe B and Joe D have been saying that they expect the QBO to go increasingly negative through winter as well. Though I don't knpw much about the QBO I understand from weatherbell that when it goes to a strong negative, it goes into a strongly easterly phase, which together with a negative AO and NAO makes colder weather for the UK.
Joe B said in his e mail to me that he expects December to be less severe than last year, with the core of the cold coming in Jan/ Feb.
I know others like James Madden and Piers Corbyn disagree, and think December could be severe cold, but I really like Joe Bastardi as a meteorologist, and for me, he is by far the most accurate at long range. I know he makes mistakes sometimes, but weather forecasting is hard for anyone, so that is to be expected, but for me this winter, I would go with Joe's idea of a less severe December, but colder Jan and Feb.
another email from joe to the guy-Joe B and Joe D indicated in their e mail that the AO and NAO are expected to go negative from late November. Joe B also said that they should be negative for December and Jan, and here is the e mail"
Hi David
I think this positive NAO and AO trend will reverse by late November and December. It should be negative into January.
I have done a more specific European winter outlook.And I will send you my thoughts. We will give Europe and Asia coverage this winter as we think weather will ne newsworthy.
Thanks David.
he said joe said-In his initial thoughts, he was going for a december not as severe as last year, with the cold more spread out in each month, with the real cold to come in Jan / feb.. Overall though, he said he still expected a colder than normal winter for the UK.
and a few other emails too- joe b clearly thinks this winter will be very cold yay:D0 -
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Thanks, redsunset, I realized that later upon reading a thread on Net-weather.
This long-range forecasting game is getting very crowded and there's no real telling how many people are making independent forecasts and how many are repeating blends of what they hear from others. I suspect there is somewhat of a herd mentality involved but even so, I think most of these sources, perhaps not all, are independent and do their own research and forecast development, then of course it's hard to avoid hearing what others are saying but there's also enough of a spread to prove that it isn't just a case of monkey see, monkey do.
I'm optimistic that progress will be made, and in fact believe it already has been made to some extent but I am very realistic about where this project is located on the "discovery" curve -- early days, and whatever the various enthusiastic people say, this remains demonstrably true for all involved. Some seem to think, if I just sound positive enough, it will by magic processes unknown to mortal human beings create a stunning result. Of course, being positive is not a bad thing, but the stunning results will come in five or ten or perhaps more years when somebody's research starts to narrow errors down to manageable leftover quantities. That's what I've said for the past five years and continue to believe, that this is a war of attrition, progress comes about one or two per cent at a time per year of work on the research. This is what makes it a very daunting challenge and turns some away. It is not easy work, once you decide on your methodology, I assume it works this way for all concerned, you find that the main problem you face is sheer complexity.
Just taking my own research as an illustration, I need to consider dozens of factors and do the same research for many different points on a grid, not necessarily everywhere, but certainly two or three dozen sample points on a grid, to get even close to a comprehensive solution. At the moment, I tend to do this by index values rather than any kind of complicated computer programs. I could say realistically that about 10% of error or variance is contained within the problem of subjective interpretation of output, in other words, even if your research model does the right thing, there is that last step of calling the results because otherwise it's just a chart or a map filled with numbers. Anyone who has done any scale of forecasting will realize that having an accurate forecast map is about 90% of the challenge, the other 10 per cent is interpretation. But on top of that, by no means is the research complete so the available guidance is not tremendously better than random noise. I do think there has been progress. Various forecasts have at least called parts of the past few winters reasonably well, despite the prevailing conventional wisdom that cold winters would not return. This in itself was an accomplishment.
But I wouldn't be expecting any "eureka" moments in this science, it is more like a new technology than your classic e equals mc squared sort of physics. It will progress like aviation or rocket technology did, in fits and starts with the occasional big problem. At least with these explosions, everyone can watch without getting hurt. 0 -
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M.T. Cranium wrote: »Cold has failed to take much advantage of limited opportunities so far, I've noted that when cold was expected from my research findings, the actual outcome was more of a swelling up of the Euro high resulting in somewhat lower temperatures in the eastern part of the U.K. and nearby central Europe but almost no effect on Ireland's temperature trends at all.
As I was expecting perhaps more of a long battle eventually leading to cold winning out in January, this is more like a problem with detail than a completely different outcome. You'll recall that I said that early December should become stormy, anticipating at that point a tightening of the gradient, then cold mid-month, milder towards the end, and finally a longer cold spell in January (mild Feb).
I still think that's the general pattern ahead, and have seen nothing to indicate a major adjustment required, from the general set-up around the northern hemisphere which is probably working out quite well on the larger scale. One thing I note and draw your attention towards is that the extent of arctic air masses around the subarctic regions is quite well advanced. If heights rise at some point in western North America then some of this well-established arctic air is going to get pushed across the pole towards Siberia and European Russia. That's the only real route to sustained cold without a large +NAO signal and that seems to be dealt out of the hand at present. If you get cold this winter it will probably come from a continental source rather than a northerly source.
Thank you for the update MT. All eyes east to the continent so!
I still have faith we will get some snow in Ireland this winter, its just more of a long game this year following the early winter last year
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Thank you for the update MT. All eyes east to the continent so!
I still have faith we will get some snow in Ireland this winter, its just more of a long game this year following the early winter last year
D
A north-easterly would be better. From what I can tell easterlies tend to dump all the snow on England leaving us with light patches. It has to pass through the larger part of the island before it gets to us. North-easterlies tend to cut through much less of the uk and we end up with more snow.
That is my observation anyway.:D0
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