MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

Calibos

Lucreto wrote: »

A north-easterly would be better worse. From what I can tell easterlies tend to dump all the snow on England slip between the IOM and Anglesey leaving us Bray with light patches at least. It doesn't matter that It has to pass through the larger part of the island before it gets to us. North-easterlies tend to cut through much less of the uk but inspite of that we still end up with more less snow because of the Fcuking Isle of Man Shadow.

That is my observation anyway.:D

FYP !

eskimocat

Sean Quagmire wrote: »

Look what came in as post of the day!!! lol and it got some serious thanks! Even thanked it myself

Legend!!!

davidsr20

Has mt any updates since last week?

donzenettii

MTC rocks as far as I am concerned, the best forecaster around. Have you any ideas MT as to how the first week of January (1-7) will progress ?... Have family 'do' on then and am worried that there may be a significant snowfall around that time...as January normally is when we see the snow in Ireland. Many thanks MT for all your past forecasts, just posting to these forums take so much time let alone doing the actual forecasting. Keep up the good work and again...a very big THANK YOU AND A VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS MT...

Joe Public

You will need to say what part of the country you are in. Check MTC's first post on this thread where he forecasts January to be colder than normal with the possibility of snow in the eastern part of the country. It's a long range forecast so don't expect too many specifics.

alfa beta

At the very start of this thread - written back on the 10th October - this is what MT said about December:

"DECEMBER; There may be roughly equal spells of mild and cold weather with possibly a rather stormy theme and a wide variety of daily weather types that will include some strong winds, some heavy rainfalls and some snow or ice. The output for the Christmas to New Year period suggests a milder interval after some rather cold days about a week before Christmas."

So, bearing in mind the current conditions (right now 2.4 degrees on the south coast!) and the forecast for a milder spell up to Christmas after this weekend, can I just say.....

"Wow - hats off MT - seriously good call"

(Also, based on the rest of that OP, I'm looking forward to Jan!)

Joe Public

Don't put the commentator's curse on MT's success:)

gbee

Joe Public wrote: »

Don't put the commentator's curse on MT's success:)

No chance we'll blame that postman if MT is wrong!

Harps

I think this place goes a bit over the top a times in the worship of MT but yes a very impressive December forecast it has to be said, accurate word for word there with the proposed milder spell next week

Strangegravy

Harps wrote: »

I think this place goes a bit over the top a times in the worship of MT but yes a very impressive December forecast it has to be said, accurate word for word there with the proposed milder spell next week

To be fair, I think it's more that he's well respected on here, as he puts in a lot of his own time and effort to help people who only have limited knowledge of the way weather works, achieve a greater understanding of the whole crazy area.

It just so happens that he seems to be quite good at using his methods to predict it fairly right, and even if it doesn't come off he gives honest reasons for why it didn't happen, and doesn't try and b*llsh*t his way out of it like so many of the long range forecasters.

I think we appreciate that more than anything else...

M.T. Cranium

As always, hoping for the best on the most significant portion of the forecast in January ... not seeing anything to throw off the forecast and encouraged by widespread talk of a "stratwarm" event not being super imminent but in the right time frame (late Dec to mid Jan).

Yes, I'll take my lumps down the road if required, no pointing to the Sun as spoiler, this research is developing and not finished, so to be frank, this month is as good as we can hope to see but by no means to be presented as the expected standard, so on we go, into the great unknown.

I should also mention that the process of being active on this and other weather forums is important, if there is in fact any progress being made in my research, then it comes as a consequence of all these forum activities and what one can learn from absorbing all that information. When I compare my work to the pre-internet age (which was a time of splendid isolation) I can see that this has been a key factor in developing the research. But who knows how much time one has left and whether it can ever be enough time given the complexity of this problem -- there is no simple equation or formula hidden away in all the data, I would say, just a complicated theoretical challenge that is by no means fully understood here (or anywhere else, I believe).

Maxamber

Just wanted to say that I check in every morning without fail to your forecast, MT, and want to thank you (with sincere apologies if this is in the wrong place!) and wish you and your family a very happy and peaceful Christmas and New Year-I'd be bereft without your forecasts, they were so helpful last year and it's really reassuring to have them to turn to!

davidsr20

Mt is there any updates or changes on this since u last posted here?Are we still looking good for jan cold

M.T. Cranium

Nothing big to report, the forecast was calling for much colder weather to set in around 8-10 Jan with the coldest part of the winter predicted to be mid to late January, possibly lasting into early February, then milder again.

The next two weeks were pictured as being a transitional period seeing an end to the expected mild spell in stages. Right now the model output is inconclusive, one run shows that sort of pattern, another shows mainly mild weather continuing.

Upper trends are also inconclusive although people on various forums keep pointing to output they like in terms of a strat warm soon, but we don't absolutely need this strat warm to get a colder pattern at the surface.

Therefore can only say, hope to see some colder trends showing up in more reliable model time frames soon, this is the way real cold usually shows its hand, with gradual trends then suddenly one day you're seeing good maps at about 6-8 days out. But would continue to stress patience here, the most likely time for delivery is still two weeks away.

M.T. Cranium

After I posted the above, the 9-10 day panels of the ECM came in with much more of a wintry look than we've seen on that model past few days, more like the GFS was showing a few days ago before backing off more recently. I think this may be a sign that the ECM has picked up on new data coming in to indicate at least a moderate strat warm episode developing. You can see the split in the vortex showing up -- heights slowly building over Greenland which should work out in favour of colder patterns for Europe soon.

Birdnuts

About time too - there's been a remarkable lack of cold right across Europe and NA this month!!

nacho libre

There is another warming forecast for 10 days time. So hopefully the polar vortex won't be able to quickly re-organise itself.

derekon

Hi MT,

There appears to be some major developments happening in terms of cold with major stratospheric warming a distinct possibility - Joe Bastardi certainly seems to be getting excited about this

This forecast warming is fitting in nicely with your January forecast of a decent cold spell for Ireland.

You had mentioned recently that the models will be a bit over the place over the coming days as they try to handle a slowing Atlantic and possible blocking. What is your gut feeling now? Do you still think Ireland could see some decent cold from mid / late January and into February? Also would you throw some snow into the mix too? Us coldies are looking for a wee bit of hope! :rolleyes:

D

M.T. Cranium

Not avoiding the question, just looking for some reliable indications and continuing to be somewhat frustrated by the model trend, about a week ago it was looking like the rapid change to cold at mid-month was almost locking into the pattern, now it looks more indistinct, but we can't rule out any change beyond 4-5 days in this stratwarm-watch situation.

I would say the best estimate at the moment is for a modest delivery of cold and snow that might only amount to 2-3 weeks of cold-dominated and perhaps one or two snowfall situations. This might not be a very rich harvest but it's always good to note that the economy in the country would not do too well with a long, severe cold spell anyway. It would be nice to get something more wintry for the sake of the forum's mental health, now that the onslaught of windstorms seems to be fading out. Mild partly cloudy weather is about the least interesting form of weather although for everyone else's interests it's the best.

The 12z runs today were only so-so for any kind of hope for wintry patterns and the 18z run had a few brief rallies, but with all of them, you could see how a bit more of a robust change to the north and northeast in particular might quickly improve that situation. It's not looking like a locked-in mild zonal pattern so much as one that can't seem to find a signal of any kind and is stuck with decaying signals. This is often just a sign that the models have nothing to go on, that there's no persistent signal and an external change factor might shake things up unpredictably (my research of course attempts to predict that sort of scenario and despite the rather pessmistic assessment, I have to say that technically the forecast is doing fine to this point on both sides of the Atlantic, however, the implication of faster change by the 15th is contained in the forecast). Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.

bb1234567

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not avoiding the question, just looking for some reliable indications and continuing to be somewhat frustrated by the model trend, about a week ago it was looking like the rapid change to cold at mid-month was almost locking into the pattern, now it looks more indistinct, but we can't rule out any change beyond 4-5 days in this stratwarm-watch situation.

I would say the best estimate at the moment is for a modest delivery of cold and snow that might only amount to 2-3 weeks of cold-dominated and perhaps one or two snowfall situations. This might not be a very rich harvest but it's always good to note that the economy in the country would not do too well with a long, severe cold spell anyway. It would be nice to get something more wintry for the sake of the forum's mental health, now that the onslaught of windstorms seems to be fading out. Mild partly cloudy weather is about the least interesting form of weather although for everyone else's interests it's the best.

The 12z runs today were only so-so for any kind of hope for wintry patterns and the 18z run had a few brief rallies, but with all of them, you could see how a bit more of a robust change to the north and northeast in particular might quickly improve that situation. It's not looking like a locked-in mild zonal pattern so much as one that can't seem to find a signal of any kind and is stuck with decaying signals. This is often just a sign that the models have nothing to go on, that there's no persistent signal and an external change factor might shake things up unpredictably (my research of course attempts to predict that sort of scenario and despite the rather pessmistic assessment, I have to say that technically the forecast is doing fine to this point on both sides of the Atlantic, however, the implication of faster change by the 15th is contained in the forecast). Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.

So what sort of temps are we looking at around the country mt in this ''modest'' cold spell mt? Please for the love of god dont say wet snow for hills and upland areas and then sleety wintry mixed shower on the coast which wont stick and if it does itll melt within the hour, if you do I may well go insane.

Lucreto

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not avoiding the question, just looking for some reliable indications and continuing to be somewhat frustrated by the model trend, about a week ago it was looking like the rapid change to cold at mid-month was almost locking into the pattern, now it looks more indistinct, but we can't rule out any change beyond 4-5 days in this stratwarm-watch situation.

I would say the best estimate at the moment is for a modest delivery of cold and snow that might only amount to 2-3 weeks of cold-dominated and perhaps one or two snowfall situations. This might not be a very rich harvest but it's always good to note that the economy in the country would not do too well with a long, severe cold spell anyway. It would be nice to get something more wintry for the sake of the forum's mental health, now that the onslaught of windstorms seems to be fading out. Mild partly cloudy weather is about the least interesting form of weather although for everyone else's interests it's the best.

The 12z runs today were only so-so for any kind of hope for wintry patterns and the 18z run had a few brief rallies, but with all of them, you could see how a bit more of a robust change to the north and northeast in particular might quickly improve that situation. It's not looking like a locked-in mild zonal pattern so much as one that can't seem to find a signal of any kind and is stuck with decaying signals. This is often just a sign that the models have nothing to go on, that there's no persistent signal and an external change factor might shake things up unpredictably (my research of course attempts to predict that sort of scenario and despite the rather pessmistic assessment, I have to say that technically the forecast is doing fine to this point on both sides of the Atlantic, however, the implication of faster change by the 15th is contained in the forecast). Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.

Hopefully things will be more clear as time goes on. There are some interesting indications at the moment.

As for the economy it depends on where you are working. Retailers got extra winter suppliers in after December 2010 and they are not selling the stock due to the mild weather. Worse still people are returning the stock they did buy because it wasn't worn due to the mild conditions. Its a lot of capital on told until next winter. But on the other hand I get what you mean.

Redsunset

Lads as MT has already said, the models are not latching on to anything specific yet because of all that is going on ,not only in the lower but the upper atmosphere now too, ie Strat Warming. There could be a change as soon as the next run and we might hit jackpot but if not so what. I think people are slowly losing their minds on here because of the winter is nearly over opinion. Get that out of your heads, cause this could be a slow burner to something worth opening the bottle of champagne to,or maybe nothing for these parts at all. I don't see us getting nothing but the snowfall and duration of the cold spell particularly in the the east last year was fairly rare. Will take a fair push of a sustained easterly flow to match that again so don't be too upset if it don't materialise.
I am as you know in the cold camp and will be disappointed if i don't see at least one good snowfall but i shall just shrug it off and look forward to the following winter if so be.
This post is not being directed to anyone personally.:)

Birdnuts

[QUOTE=M.T. Cranium;76367016Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.[/QUOTE]

Yeah - another week of nothingness in prospect as that HP refuses to just %£%^ off and allow the normal progression of fronts. Its also frustrating to see dream summer synoptics being wasted at this time of year:(

Discodog

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

It would be nice to get something more wintry for the sake of the forum's mental health,

This forum member is delighted with warm & fairly settled weather. The fact that people can earn a living & not face huge heating bills during a major recession is a god send.

As every week passes the chances of a long cold spell diminishes. If we were to have severe cold it would cause huge problems with the natural world that has reacted to the relative warmth.

Just because the snow brigade become very vocal every winter it doesn't mean that everyone wants snow.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not avoiding the question, just looking for some reliable indications and continuing to be somewhat frustrated by the model trend, about a week ago it was looking like the rapid change to cold at mid-month was almost locking into the pattern, now it looks more indistinct, but we can't rule out any change beyond 4-5 days in this stratwarm-watch situation.

I would say the best estimate at the moment is for a modest delivery of cold and snow that might only amount to 2-3 weeks of cold-dominated and perhaps one or two snowfall situations. This might not be a very rich harvest but it's always good to note that the economy in the country would not do too well with a long, severe cold spell anyway. It would be nice to get something more wintry for the sake of the forum's mental health, now that the onslaught of windstorms seems to be fading out. Mild partly cloudy weather is about the least interesting form of weather although for everyone else's interests it's the best.

The 12z runs today were only so-so for any kind of hope for wintry patterns and the 18z run had a few brief rallies, but with all of them, you could see how a bit more of a robust change to the north and northeast in particular might quickly improve that situation. It's not looking like a locked-in mild zonal pattern so much as one that can't seem to find a signal of any kind and is stuck with decaying signals. This is often just a sign that the models have nothing to go on, that there's no persistent signal and an external change factor might shake things up unpredictably (my research of course attempts to predict that sort of scenario and despite the rather pessmistic assessment, I have to say that technically the forecast is doing fine to this point on both sides of the Atlantic, however, the implication of faster change by the 15th is contained in the forecast). Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.

Thank you MT, appreciate the update. Hopefully the models will start to settle down so we get some firm indications of cold. However nature is out of all our control so what will be will be. We might get a decent snowfall by the time the winter has passed, we might not get anything at all. Time will tell.

D

derekon

bb1234567 wrote: »

So what sort of temps are we looking at around the country mt in this ''modest'' cold spell mt? Please for the love of god dont say wet snow for hills and upland areas and then sleety wintry mixed shower on the coast which wont stick and if it does itll melt within the hour, if you do I may well go insane.

Happy pills at the ready so! We may get wet snow. We may get no snow at all. Who knows?

One thing this winter season has taught me is that Long Range Forecasting should have a major health warning attached (good examples being Mark Vogan and Piers Corbyn).

D

derekon

redsunset wrote: »

Lads as MT has already said, the models are not latching on to anything specific yet because of all that is going on ,not only in the lower but the upper atmosphere now too, ie Strat Warming. There could be a change as soon as the next run and we might hit jackpot but if not so what. I think people are slowly losing their minds on here because of the winter is nearly over opinion. Get that out of your heads, cause this could be a slow burner to something worth opening the bottle of champagne to,or maybe nothing for these parts at all. I don't see us getting nothing but the snowfall and duration of the cold spell particularly in the the east last year was fairly rare. Will take a fair push of a sustained easterly flow to match that again so don't be too upset if it don't materialise.
I am as you know in the cold camp and will be disappointed if i don't see at least one good snowfall but i shall just shrug it off and look forward to the following winter if so be.
This post is not being directed to anyone personally.:)

A point well communicated. Nice touch at the end as well Redsunset I am a coldie myself so it has been frustrating so far this winter. However, the coming 2-3 weeks will either be more of the same or a gamechanger. Interesting times ahead.

D

Procyon

Discodog wrote: »

This forum member is delighted with warm & fairly settled weather...

I'm another delighted forum member. I think the fans of cold weather were spoilt for two years, we probably won't see another winter like those for years.

desolate sun

redsunset wrote: »

the snowfall and duration of the cold spell particularly in the the east last year was fairly rare.

I am confused. Last year people were going on about sunspots and the Maunder Minimum and how those 'Ice Age' winters would become the norm (for a number of years, at least). So this winter, after reading several threads people are saying it's rare and may never happen again.

I know that people have said during the other 'mini Ice Ages' that warm winters punctuated the freezing ones, so is this what we're experiencing now?
Or is it a case, of only time will tell if it is indeed a 'mini Ice Age'?

blackius

desolate sun wrote: »

redsunset wrote: »

the snowfall and duration of the cold spell particularly in the the east last year was fairly rare.

I am confused. Last year people were going on about sunspots and the Maunder Minimum and how those 'Ice Age' winters would become the norm (for a number of years, at least). So this winter, after reading several threads people are saying it's rare and may never happen again.

I know that people have said during the other 'mini Ice Ages' that warm winters punctuated the freezing ones, so is this what we're experiencing now?
Or is it a case, of only time will tell if it is indeed a 'mini Ice Age'?

Well for a start,even during ongoing historic decades of cold there were warm winters mixed in.
Secondly no winter has ever been entirely freezing from start to finish.

Thirdly when you are saying people were saying this or that...you've got to factor in who is saying it.
Just because a poster or groups of posters have said something here doesn't make it valid.
When you're here for a while it should become clear that some posters speak with more authority than others.

Fourthly remember weather fora have a natural bias towards extreme weather because that's what most regulars come here looking for.