MTC's Winter 2011-12 Forecast

BEASTERLY

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The 12z runs today were only so-so for any kind of hope for wintry patterns and the 18z run had a few brief rallies, but with all of them, you could see how a bit more of a robust change to the north and northeast in particular might quickly improve that situation. It's not looking like a locked-in mild zonal pattern so much as one that can't seem to find a signal of any kind and is stuck with decaying signals. This is often just a sign that the models have nothing to go on, that there's no persistent signal and an external change factor might shake things up unpredictably (my research of course attempts to predict that sort of scenario and despite the rather pessmistic assessment, I have to say that technically the forecast is doing fine to this point on both sides of the Atlantic, however, the implication of faster change by the 15th is contained in the forecast). Maybe it will all work out well anyway and we're just stuck in a model-hypnosis stall.

:cool:

Redsunset

desolate sun wrote: »

I am confused. Last year people were going on about sunspots and the Maunder Minimum and how those 'Ice Age' winters would become the norm (for a number of years, at least). So this winter, after reading several threads people are saying it's rare and may never happen again.

I know that people have said during the other 'mini Ice Ages' that warm winters punctuated the freezing ones, so is this what we're experiencing now?
Or is it a case, of only time will tell if it is indeed a 'mini Ice Age'?

For a start the Sunspot/Mini Ice age thread has ??? in the title. What has been shown in that thread is how scientists are trying to show correlations through numerous means as to why weather conditions in the past behaved like they did. There are so many factors at play. For example large volcanic eruptions occurred around the time of previous minimums, so perhaps this combo did it. I have shown that during times of max and min sunspots and depending on what phase the QBO is in it the probability of a Sudden Strat Warming can be determined. The whole Cosmic Rays debate is on there too.

---

http://www.agu.org/pubs/current/si/links/2011GL049811.pdf takes a close look at the just ended long, deep, and extended solar minimum in order to compare it to the beginning of the Maunder Minimum of the 1600s, when there were no significant sunspots for six-plus decades, to see if this can give us clues on whether the sun is about to enter another such Grand Minimum.

The scientists conclude that it should be possible to predict the onset of a Grand Minimum, and that the sunspot numbers of the just completed minimum suggest that we might very well be at the start of one.

The current declines in peak and mean [sunspot numbers] are the largest since the onset of the [Maunder Minimum] and exceed those around 1800 which failed to initiate a [Grand Minimum].

The scientists do note however that the data could also support us entering a period of subdued maximums similar to the Dalton Minimum of around 1800, when two succeeding solar maximums produced sunspots but at much reduced numbers.

Either way, during both the Maunder and Dalton minimums there is strong evidence that the Earth’s climate got colder. Whether it was the sun’s behavior that caused this cooling remains an area of debate among scientists. Recent results from CERN provide strong evidence that the sun did influence this cooling, and might very well produce cooling again if the sun dips into another Grand Minimum.

---

Read
http://downloads.bbc.co.uk/looknorthyorkslincs/sun_climate_connection.pdf

---

I've highlighted below words to show that nothing is exact.

Bochnicek and Hejda (2005) demonstrated that during the winter periods (January–March) of the years 1963–2001 high geomagnetic activity was nearly always associated with a positive phase of the NAO, whereas low geomagnetic activity tended to couple with the negative phase. Palamara and Bryant (2004) and Fujita and Tanaka (2007) found a similar relationship with the Northern Annular Mode (NAM)


The thread is basically a large collection of ideas as to Why and How certain parts froze during the "Mini ice Age". I have stressed on numerous occasions during the thread that it is a very debatable topic and yes time will certainly tell and my own feeling on this is like Prof Mike Lockwood.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=65604878&postcount=191

Lockwood and his colleagues took average winter temperatures from the
Central England Temperature dataset, which extends back to 1659, and compared it with records of highs and lows in solar activity. They found that during years of low solar activity, winters in the UK were far more likely to be colder than average. "There is less than a 1 per cent probability that the result was obtained by chance," says Lockwood,

derekon

Hi MT,

Given current indications of no decent cold weather or snow for the UK and Ireland over the coming 10 days (which will bring us right up the end of January) - would you rate the chances of snow for Ireland as very low for the rest of the season?

Really what I am asking is: do you think its now time to write off Ireland's chances for snow during winter 2011/2012 ?

D

M.T. Cranium

Well, I'm sure you as well as other readers can imagine the frustration of seeing the global models toying with the same patterns as my long-range forecast (in second half of January) then backing off, returning with new glimpses, backing off again ... at least I predicted what the models would show.

As to what will actually happen, I would not write off chances for snow yet, the models have not closed the door on it totally and also they could be wrong at any point past 120h (120 minutes?) ... the polar vortex has begun to leak cold in various places (for example, western-central North America) and I don't think the strong +AO will persist.

Let's say the chances are about 50-50 that the rest of the winter will deliver one significant snowfall in Ireland, and about 25% for two events (separated by more than 3d). As to severe cold, the snowfall is a big factor there. The minimum of -3 in Dublin (and -6 in B'ham) in the recent cool spell would have been 5-8 deg colder over a snow cover, and then that high would have dug in and resisted the Atlantic more vigorously too. So there's always feedback issues in the details, although I continue to believe that patterns are largely responsive to external forcing.

Anyway, let's see how January actually unfolds, stranger things have happened than some massive upgrades in the model runs.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Well, I'm sure you as well as other readers can imagine the frustration of seeing the global models toying with the same patterns as my long-range forecast (in second half of January) then backing off, returning with new glimpses, backing off again ... at least I predicted what the models would show.

As to what will actually happen, I would not write off chances for snow yet, the models have not closed the door on it totally and also they could be wrong at any point past 120h (120 minutes?) ... the polar vortex has begun to leak cold in various places (for example, western-central North America) and I don't think the strong +AO will persist.

Let's say the chances are about 50-50 that the rest of the winter will deliver one significant snowfall in Ireland, and about 25% for two events (separated by more than 3d). As to severe cold, the snowfall is a big factor there. The minimum of -3 in Dublin (and -6 in B'ham) in the recent cool spell would have been 5-8 deg colder over a snow cover, and then that high would have dug in and resisted the Atlantic more vigorously too. So there's always feedback issues in the details, although I continue to believe that patterns are largely responsive to external forcing.

Anyway, let's see how January actually unfolds, stranger things have happened than some massive upgrades in the model runs.

Thanks for your latest thoughts, MT

Yep, the models have been all over the place lately. Last Friday (13/01), what I considered to be the most reliable of all the models (ECMWF) showed a decent spell of cold over Ireland for this weekend, lasting a few days and giving a good shot at some snow.

Alas, it was not to be! Now we are back to square one. However, one bit of hope I do have is that February is traditionally (from memory) the snowiest month in Ireland. So still a bit of time left - we are I suppose, only 50% through the Irish winter.

Still have the second half to go and all to play for!

D

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Hey MT

Would be interested in hearing how all of the changes on the models compare with what you are modelling yourself ?

Cheers

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

Hey MT

Would be interested in hearing how all of the changes on the models compare with what you are modelling yourself ?

Cheers

From the Cold thread last night

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think the two key points going forward would be:

** increasing signs of a battleground scenario that sets up somewhere close to the west-central regions of Britain

** very low confidence in model ability to give accurate solutions past 96h

which taken together mean something like this:

** 40% chance that Ireland remains mild (after the 2-day cold spell)

** 30% chance that eastern Ireland gets into the battleground while the west stays mild

** 30% chance that all parts of Ireland turn much colder next week

Given that a large fraction of population live in the east, this would mean in sheer economic terms about a 50-50 chance of wintry disruption at some point next week. So while that's not a guarantee, it would seem like a risk to be closely monitored.

Any given set of model runs could really swing fast in one direction or the other, the Russian high, while massive, remains oriented in such a way that a fast push of cold air west is difficult, unless the centre shows signs of elongating into Sweden, then it could accelerate.

My hunch is that snow will come from this in about a week to ten days.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Would help if I could read ! cheers !

geetar

so from MTC's predictions... that gives the east a 60% chance....:cool:

Steopo

geetar wrote: »

so from MTC's predictions... that gives the east a 60% chance....:cool:

That's assuming we win the battle, so really it's only 30% chance of cold & only 50% of cold spells give snow & only 10% of long range forecasts properly materialize (even from the best) so really it's just a 1% chance like it always is for snow in Ireland

But hey it's better than zero chance

derekon

Hi MT,

From a snow lover's point of view, this winter in Ireland has frankly been abysmal.

Given we are now heading towards mid February, what are your views on any snowfall for Ireland during what is left of this winter, particularly the east coast and the Dublin region? I don't think its looking good myself but would be interested to hear your view on this.........

Thks

D

M.T. Cranium

Well, it's not as if arctic air had just failed to materialize this winter, in fact whatever happens with the UK or Irish forecasts, the fact remains that there has been a huge impact on Europe from this blocking episode that only set in about three weeks ago in Russia and spread west two weeks ago. This cold air remains entrenched and even tonight as I write this, it is no further away than central England. And they saw one significant snowstorm over the weekend in parts of England. That's a measure of how close we came to seeing significant winter weather in Ireland, as it happened, the country was sideswiped to a minor extent as February began but the impacts were very minor.

With this weather pattern only showing small variations it would be a brave and perhaps foolhardy call to say that winter will stay away all month, yet the way things have gone, would that surprise anybody? I only see mild indications for the rest of February in the research model, so I have no real reason to go against this apparent trend. However, I do see a retrograde period in March lasting into early April, so with the 1917 events in mind, I don't feel that we can close the door entirely on some eventual snowfall event in Ireland. If it does come, I believe it will come long after the spring has begun to set in, and that could cause trouble for agricultural interests, so I hope that's not the case, but with what we've seen so far this winter, it would tend to fit the pattern. All of this cold air over Europe is eventually going to have to disperse either by being pushed back into Siberia or forming a more retrograde block and moving northwest into the Iceland region -- I would not bet against the latter simply on law of averages and the fact that a stratospheric warming episode seems likely (we've seen weak ones already) and also, the zonal index over North America is steadily weakening, the pattern now looks semi-blocked over this way. It is certainly very low-energy as of today.

derekon

Interesting MT, thank you for your thoughts. Never say never I suppose!

D

TheMilkyPirate

March you say... If snow interferes with Cheltenham I don't ever want to see it again.

M.T. Cranium

Wasn't really expecting an outcome where a major trend in the forecast would be good for Ireland and not good for most of Britain, but that has certainly been the case with the predicted warming trend after "cold and snow" in early February as per the forecast. The warming trend cuts off about central Scotland south-south-west to Lands End. Now that's just plain odd but the data base was the (British) CET rather than anything in Ireland, so ... it also makes you wonder, supposing somebody had said well here's two clues about the winter, it will be -20 C in Holland, and they will have record amounts of snow in parts of the Alps and the Balkans ... those facts would probably have one thinking cold for Ireland, I would imagine, unless you thought the cold might extend more to the south. Anyway, would have to say in this pattern and given the persistence of severe cold for about two weeks now, Ireland has been (un)lucky to remain relatively unscathed. A few parts of Britain also remain largely untouched by this wintry spell, but I would say they're now feeling it in eastern and central regions after almost two weeks of below freezing temperatures in some places.

derekon

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Wasn't really expecting an outcome where a major trend in the forecast would be good for Ireland and not good for most of Britain, but that has certainly been the case with the predicted warming trend after "cold and snow" in early February as per the forecast. The warming trend cuts off about central Scotland south-south-west to Lands End. Now that's just plain odd but the data base was the (British) CET rather than anything in Ireland, so ... it also makes you wonder, supposing somebody had said well here's two clues about the winter, it will be -20 C in Holland, and they will have record amounts of snow in parts of the Alps and the Balkans ... those facts would probably have one thinking cold for Ireland, I would imagine, unless you thought the cold might extend more to the south. Anyway, would have to say in this pattern and given the persistence of severe cold for about two weeks now, Ireland has been (un)lucky to remain relatively unscathed. A few parts of Britain also remain largely untouched by this wintry spell, but I would say they're now feeling it in eastern and central regions after almost two weeks of below freezing temperatures in some places.

Thanks MT. So the forecast of snow for Ireland did not materialise (though was very close given the freezing conditions in England for the past few weeks).

Given milder temps are due to return to Europe this coming week, is it goodbye for any hopes of snow for Ireland for what remains of the winter? Or is there anything in your guidance that suggests we might have another bite at the snow apple come late Feb/early March?

D

bb1234567

derekon wrote: »

Thanks MT. So the forecast of snow for Ireland did not materialise (though was very close given the freezing conditions in England for the past few weeks).

Given milder temps are due to return to Europe this coming week, is it goodbye for any hopes of snow for Ireland for what remains of the winter? Or is there anything in your guidance that suggests we might have another bite at the snow apple come late Feb/early March?

D

It looks like M.T isnt really expecting anything severe for the rest of this winter, oh well I've been coming to terms since mid jan that we wouldnt be getting any snow this year. I've gotten good at dealing with snow disappoi8ntments living here in Ireland :PI'm betting next year will be very severe though:D

Gonzo

I wouldnt be confident that next winter will bring another 2009/2010 winter scenario but it's highly unlikely next winter is gonna be as bad as this one, this winter was remarkably poor and even out of the ordinary by Irish standards as it's extremely rare to only have 3 or 4 night frosts over a 4 month period. It's almost a given that we will see better snow potential next winter.

Lucreto

It was like the season was on holiday this year.

Winter: Sorry mate I won't be here next year so I will give you a double helping now.

If a winter is mild how does that play into the coming summer?

bb1234567

Lucreto wrote: »

It was like the season was on holiday this year.

Winter: Sorry mate I won't be here next year so I will give you a double helping now.

If a winter is mild how does that play into the coming summer?

Fox news-

''Updated 02.02.12
ALBANY, GA --
Will this mild winter lead to a sweltering summer?

That was the question in today's Facebook story of the day.

The short answer is no.

Chief Meteorologist Mike Morrison says there is no correlation between a mild winter and a summer with above normal temperatures.

However, that will happen this year.

“We may have a hot summer, the climate prediction center is forecasting above normal temperatures as we go through June, July and August of 2012,” says Morrison.

Morrison says we experienced a similar situation last year.''
So apparently no ,a mild winter does not equal a hot summer, but apparently these guys are saying this summer will be hot anyway,but thats only in americanot Uk or Ireland so who knows, might go either way. I know youre looking for a cold wet summer, and I myself dont particularly like very high temps especially when Im here in Ireland( I like it hot when Im abroad on holidays) but please god not one as bad as last years! That was just depressing,I remember I could see my breath one night in mid august and had to wear a winters coat:eek: Our very cold last summer felt almost the exact same as this years mild winter,wouldnt say temps were to far off eachother!

Lucreto

bb1234567 wrote: »

Fox news-

''Updated 02.02.12
ALBANY, GA --
Will this mild winter lead to a sweltering summer?

That was the question in today's Facebook story of the day.

The short answer is no.

Chief Meteorologist Mike Morrison says there is no correlation between a mild winter and a summer with above normal temperatures.

However, that will happen this year.

“We may have a hot summer, the climate prediction center is forecasting above normal temperatures as we go through June, July and August of 2012,” says Morrison.

Morrison says we experienced a similar situation last year.''
So apparently no ,a mild winter does not equal a hot summer, but apparently these guys are saying this summer will be hot anyway,but thats only in americanot Uk or Ireland so who knows, might go either way. I know youre looking for a cold wet summer, and I myself dont particularly like very high temps especially when Im here in Ireland( I like it hot when Im abroad on holidays) but please god not one as bad as last years! That was just depressing,I remember I could see my breath one night in mid august and had to wear a winters coat:eek: Our very cold last summer felt almost the exact same as this years mild winter,wouldnt say temps were to far off eachother!

The article loses all credibility just by stating its Fox news.

Anyway the US weather is very different than ours. Golf course reopened after a mild winter. Less than 25% of the US has snow compared to last years 50%.

I believe sun spots play a factor and they are going up. They were really low in 2008-2009 with I feel (yes no evidence:p) that is helpsed in the 2009/2010 snow fall. 2011 had higher sunspots and 2012 was higher again so I don't have much hope for snow next year either.

opinion guy

Lucreto wrote: »

It was like the season was on holiday this year.

Winter: Sorry mate I won't be here next year so I will give you a double helping now.

If a winter is mild how does that play into the coming summer?

Frankly I expect next summer to be a continuation of the winter with equal 'hot' days as there were cold days this winter - much like last summer - making 15 straight months of grayness.

Gonzo

a mild winter does not mean it's going to be a warm sunny summer. We have regularly had mild winters followed by crap summers and previously to this year we have had 2 cold winters followed by crap summers. Currently our rate of crap summers is even higher than our rate of crap winters. Ive a feeling this summer will be no different than the past 5 bad summers. Im expecting Europe and the south east of England to have a great summer with Ireland, Scotland and western fringes of the UK to have a mainly cool summers with regular downpours. We will be doing well if we get 5 days above 20C. With the Atlantic in full charge of Ireland over past 13 months it makes it almost impossible for us to have a good winter or summer.

H2UMrsRobinson

I've given up on summers in Ireland. The only thing I expect from them now is that the rain gets slightly warmer !