Budget 2012 megathread

Donahg

What are your ideas for Noonans first budget on December 6th? I heard on a vox pop on Pat Kennys show today a lad that just turned 18 last friday signing on the dole, Thats a disgrace 18 year olds should be in education not on the dole.

RichardAnd

Donahg wrote: »

What are your ideas for Noonans first budget on December 6th? I heard on a vox pop on Pat Kennys show today a lad that just turned 18 last friday signing on the dole, Thats a disgrace 18 year olds should be in education not on the dole.

Perhaps he couldn't afford to go into education?

ei.sdraob

Savers will be hit, more DIRT and worst case scenario a raid similar to the pensions one on the longer term savings

why? because the ministers constantly keep referring to the 18-20% savings rate we now have with people being so worried for future as "bad"

murphaph

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Savers will be hit, more DIRT and worst case scenario a raid similar to the pensions one on the longer term savings

why? because the ministers constantly keep referring to the 18-20% savings rate we now have with people being so worried for future as "bad"

Germany is a major exporting nation largely because Germans are quite, erm, tight fisted and they save save save. Companies here had little choice but to export or die, as Germans don't buy as much stuff as other folks. In fact, when Germans do treat themselves it's more often than not spent on a foreign holiday!

It's probably a hangover from the Weimar days/WWII aftermath. It's really funny all the same, a few years ago we had an insane (I took advantage of it of course!) SSIA scheme to get people to stop spending on plasma TVs and start saving (to buy property sold by FF cronies of course!) and now we have a government taxing the sh!te out of responsible savers to force them to...buy plasma TVs again.

The domestic economy should not have priority. We should put all our efforts into developing exports. The country is too small to be worrying about domestic consumption and actually heavily depending on it for exchequer revenue.

ionapaul

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Savers will be hit, more DIRT and worst case scenario a raid similar to the pensions one on the longer term savings

why? because the ministers constantly keep referring to the 18-20% savings rate we now have with people being so worried for future as "bad"

I think DIRT may rise, but surely pensions will be hit again rather than going after savings - it is just too easy for savers to move their money overseas. Deposit flight also adversely affects the banks so I'm not sure the government can target savings too easily in this case.

Aidan1

Germany is a major exporting nation largely because Germans are quite, erm, tight fisted

True, but it's also (a) because they have an extremely well developed industrial economy, together with very well developed supporting infrastructure (physical and intellectual), and (b) partly because of the extremely favourable exchange rate afforded them by Euro membership - without this, their exports would be far more expensive on international markers and thus far less competitive, and they would simply not have been able to maintain their exports at the level they have.

The low level of indigenous demand is a separate question, to a degree, but it has also kept real interest rates in Germany low, and pushed savings abroad where they can theoretically make a better return.

Back to topic - at the moment there are two central questions on the budget, (1) just how big a 'cut' is most appropriate, with the EU/IMF package requiring a cut of around €3.6bn and others, including the Fiscal Council (and the OECD most likely) suggesting a larger amount (€4bn or greater), and (2) how that 'cut' should be allocated, with the unions and the 'left' likely to argue that taxes increased should constitute the bulk of it, and others (including the OECD, Fiscal Council and presumably the IMF) suggesting that cuts in expenditure be the greater part.

We'll know a lot more once the latest expenditure review is published towards the end of the month.

liammur

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Savers will be hit, more DIRT and worst case scenario a raid similar to the pensions one on the longer term savings

why? because the ministers constantly keep referring to the 18-20% savings rate we now have with people being so worried for future as "bad"

Middle classes will again be hit.
Millions will need to be raised to continue moving 'decent families' from moyross/southhill etcinto middle class areas of Limerick and munster. Great country we live in.

RichardAnd

liammur wrote: »

Middle classes will again be hit.
Millions will need to be raised to continue moving 'decent families' from moyross/southhill etcinto middle class areas of Limerick and munster. Great country we live in.

But surely you know, it was the houses in moyross that turned the inhabitants into hooligans. Knocking them down and putting the same people into new houses will solve everything . . .

BeeDI

liammur wrote: »

Middle classes will again be hit.
Millions will need to be raised to continue moving 'decent families' from moyross/southhill etcinto middle class areas of Limerick and munster. Great country we live in.

Spend that money, surrounding the place with this stuff

carveone

ionapaul wrote: »

I think DIRT may rise, but surely pensions will be hit again rather than going after savings - it is just too easy for savers to move their money overseas. Deposit flight also adversely affects the banks so I'm not sure the government can target savings too easily in this case.

One bank transfer transaction tax coming right up...

liammur

BeeDI wrote: »

Spend that money, surrounding the place with this stuff

Just about the best post I've seen.

But alas no, increase petrol, raise taxes, make it harder for people who've lost their jobs get on the dole, gives the corporations all the tax breaks and subsidies they ask for, those who don't want to work give them more benefits. That will be noonan's budget.

carveone

liammur wrote: »

make it harder for people who've lost their jobs get on the dole,

The more you do that, the more people on the dole are scared of getting off it.

gives the corporations all the tax breaks and subsidies they ask for

Might be nice if big corporations, I dunno, paid some more bloody tax maybe... Google just had blow out earnings. Can we sew up the loopholes that allow them to play tax games?

ei.sdraob

carveone wrote: »

Might be nice if big corporations, I dunno, paid some more bloody tax maybe... Google just had blow out earnings. Can we sew up the loopholes that allow them to play tax games?

Do you want jobs or do you want corporation tax, pick one, last i checked the country needs jobs

Drumpot

More easy pickings and badly ill educated decisions to be made by our public representitives . .

Pension relief will be cut to go on top of the Pensions levy . . Aviva have already announced that they are letting go 500 staff, while not entirely down to the Pensions levy, its certainly helped. How many jobs will be lost by the continual attack on the Pensions industry ? Who knows, but sure the money is being used to create other jobs and we all know how good governments are at creating jobs so I am sure it will be well spent . . Destory some jobs to create others , how lucky are we to get such an entrepeneurial minded government thats not simply avoiding the real cuts that have to be made . .

Social welfare will be cut again. Being the ones with the lowest voice they are the easiest targets and given the fact this country has turned into a "dont look at me to pay" attitude, its the easiest group to single out.

What is funny is that I think the problem that people on Welfare have isnt the fact that they are taking cuts, its that this is just one area of expenditure that should be reviewed. Public service costs will eventually have to be addressed as the Croke Park agreement has and is a complete and utter joke.

One of the ironies of people attacking the private sector and all its greed is that its exactly what funded the increases in state Pensions, public service pay and social welfare, yet many vested interests feel that everybody should have to subsidise maintaing these over inflated costs that were only possible during the time in which the country was doing well! Fancy that . .

We are all but financially in a state of Emergency and the only section that isnt taking real, comparitive pain is state Employees and state Pension Recipients. Most of the savings should come from upper income earners. That aside, any redundancies should be paid the basic, instead of these ludicrously generous offers. Anybody retiring should not be allowed to work in the public service again and anybody (including TDs) under 65 should not be allowed to drawdown their state Pension.

Middle and Upper Level management should be reviewed extensively and aggresively targeted. An emergency contract bill should be passed to stop all this Bulls*it payoust people in state employment are getting and then hiding behind law to justify payouts that are just disgusting in the current economic environment.

State Pensions, Childcare and any other payments that people get from the state that are non work related should be reviewed and means tested. I dont care if people paid PRSI all their lives, if they dont need it, then the country shouldnt pay it.

People and our government need to wake up . . I really hope that if they continue on their path of easy targets that eventually there are marches and unrest by the voiceless part of society that is getting screwed over and over again by a state that wont put its own house in order before dishing out ill conceived pain to everybody else.

On an individual note, Kenny could do worse then half the salary of his overpaid advisers . . In truth, if FF were paying the amounts that he is, there would be uproar. This is a trait that disgusts me and is not excusable because the people felt they were getting Anybody but FF . . If people are going to hold FG to the same standards that they expected from FF, people should be outraged. . That said, it is X-Factor season so people prob dont even care enough to say anything . . Good to see we learned our lessons from letting FF away with cute Hooer messing for years , hasnt taken FG long to get used to the practise.

BANZAI_RUNNER

guys , the middle class in this country are the whipping boy for everyone else, we carry the can for everything, i'm beginning to believe they( the Government) want to eradicate the middle class, so that we will end up with the rich and the poor and thats it , right now the middle class ( or slaves ) have to carry the majority of the burden , but we are getting to vocal , and the PTB are getting tired of hearing us ,

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

liammur

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Fas type training, maybe brush the streets, community type things

irishh_bob

BANZAI_RUNNER wrote: »

guys , the middle class in this country are the whipping boy for everyone else, we carry the can for everything, i'm beginning to believe they( the Government) want to eradicate the middle class, so that we will end up with the rich and the poor and thats it , right now the middle class ( or slaves ) have to carry the majority of the burden , but we are getting to vocal , and the PTB are getting tired of hearing us ,

your not the only one , as far as i can see , the goverment cares only about the very rich and the media cares only about the very poor , the rest of us can go hang

Voltex

I find it intreseting that the Financial regulator has announced he will move agaisnt mortgage lenders who raise variable rates.

Im wondering if he has now primed the pump for the State to move with a more lucrative income stream from private residences?

Social Welfare can hardly get away scot free? Im just wondering if maternity benefit would be reduced pro-rata with child benefit?

Tora Bora

Wonder will Noonan take up IBEG .... I mean IBEC proposal, to allow private pension fund holders withdraw a proportion of the fund at a preferential tax rate of 20%.
Seems like a good enough idea to me from government point of view. Up front windfall rax, plus some will get spent driving further income for exchequer.

ChRoMe

irishh_bob wrote: »

the media cares only about the very poor

Oh, how I wish that were true.

murphaph

Tora Bora wrote: »

Wonder will Noonan take up IBEG .... I mean IBEC proposal, to allow private pension fund holders withdraw a proportion of the fund at a preferential tax rate of 20%.
Seems like a good enough idea to me from government point of view. Up front windfall rax, plus some will get spent driving further income for exchequer.

It's a terrible short sighted idea from another vested interest group. Pensions should be left alone until people reach retirement age.

The hard decisions (welfare and PS pay cuts and some form of reliable property taxation) still have to be made. Until they are, we're going nowhere.

As for 18 year olds signing on....shouldn't be entitled to a red cent in benefits until you've paid at least a year's PRSI contributions and what you get out should be related to what you put in at any time of your life upon being made unemployed.

If you can't/won't find work then you should be supported by your parents (if they'll put up with it).

irishh_bob

ChRoMe wrote: »

Oh, how I wish that were true.

as long it makes them sound pious , thier more than self satisfied

AdamD

Why are people complaining about social welfare cuts? Right now our social welfare payments are insanely high.

ChRoMe

murphaph wrote: »

As for 18 year olds signing on....shouldn't be entitled to a red cent in benefits until you've paid at least a year's PRSI contributions and what you get out should be related to what you put in at any time of your life upon being made unemployed.

If you can't/won't find work then you should be supported by your parents (if they'll put up with it).

Thats quite the "chicken and egg" situation, how could a 18 year old contribute a years PRSI if they are unable to find work? Should they be punished for that situation?

As you point out yourself regarding parents, many households are extremely tight already, the last thing they need is additional dependants.

ChRoMe

AdamD wrote: »

Why are people complaining about social welfare cuts? Right now our social welfare payments are insanely high.

The cost of living is also insanely high, thats the problem. Anytime I'm back in Ireland I choke when I see some of the prices for everyday items, and its only going up.

AdamD

ChRoMe wrote: »

The cost of living is also insanely high, thats the problem. Anytime I'm back in Ireland I choke when I see some of the prices for everyday items.

When the Dole > working on minimum wage, it needs to be lowered. Prices would come down if people's incomes went down anyway.

ChRoMe

AdamD wrote: »

When the Dole > working on minimum wage, it needs to be lowered. Prices would come down if people's incomes went down anyway.

People's incomes are going down and prices are still rising.

Edited to add: Minimum wage after tax is around 300 euros a week or so from what I calculate, with the dole being around 180ish?

AdamD

ChRoMe wrote: »

People's incomes are going down and prices are still rising.

Edited to add: Minimum wage after tax is around 300 euros a week or so from what I calculate, with the dole being around 180ish?

+ other benefits like rent allowance etc etc

ChRoMe

AdamD wrote: »

+ other benefits like rent allowance etc etc

Which according to the ESRI is something like 1 in 8 people getting... hardly a widespread top up.

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

Tora Bora

murphaph wrote: »

It's a terrible short sighted idea from another vested interest group. Pensions should be left alone until people reach retirement age.

The hard decisions (welfare and PS pay cuts and some form of reliable property taxation) still have to be made. Until they are, we're going nowhere.

As for 18 year olds signing on....shouldn't be entitled to a red cent in benefits until you've paid at least a year's PRSI contributions and what you get out should be related to what you put in at any time of your life upon being made unemployed.

If you can't/won't find work then you should be supported by your parents (if they'll put up with it).

I bet I am typical of people who pay AVC's. Every time l look at my annual statement, I ask myself why. The industry is run by overcharging, greedy, non performing ****.
To be frank, if I could take the whole lot out at a preferential tax rate I would.
I bet I could manage my nestegg a whole lot better

High time fund management fees were controlled and capped. Likewise broker fees and all other blood sucker charges in the industry.

ei.sdraob

ChRoMe wrote: »

Which according to the ESRI is something like 1 in 8 people getting... hardly a widespread top up.

Thats the same ESRI that only concentrated on unemployment benefits only (4.1 billion out of the total 20.8 billion welfare budget) while ignoring everything else, and other things like medical card etc which fall under other departments

that report is a joke, the authors need to hang their heads in shame

ChRoMe

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Thats the same ESRI that only concentrated on unemployment benefits only (4.1 billion out of the total 20.8 billion welfare budget) while ignoring everything else, and other things like medical card etc which fall under other departments

that report is a joke, the authors need to hang their heads in shame

So if the default position is to dismiss any reports that dont agree with your agenda. Who would you put faith in when researching the situation?

murphaph

ChRoMe wrote: »

Thats quite the "chicken and egg" situation, how could a 18 year old contribute a years PRSI if they are unable to find work? Should they be punished for that situation?

As you point out yourself regarding parents, many households are extremely tight already, the last thing they need is additional dependants.

They're not additional dependents though. The parents are supporting the child for 17 years and 364 days, they don't suddenly get an extra dependent when the clock rolls over to midnight and the child becomes legally an adult (but still THEIR child that THEY brought into the world, not society's child!)

They should support their child until he or she is in gainful employment and gets a chance to contribute. If the child decides to continue in full time education then the parents should be financially responsible for them during that period too.

In Germany parents of children are financially responsible for them up until age 27 if in full time education and children of incapacitated parents are financially responsible for them too unless they can prove they can't afford it!

ChRoMe

Yeah there are a lot of things different in germany.....

The person is a member of society.

toexpress

I have a wonderful suggestion for the minister. Since we own so many empty houses and flats in NAMA why don't we cut the fringe benefits of social welfare, such as rent allowances and turn some of these ghost estates into social housing. That's a start and it will save a small fortune.

I also think that there are lots of community projects that could be started and completed by people on social welfare who have skills. That would be very beneficial to the state as well.

We could also consider the cost of running the states Prisons and reduce this too, I can't remember the figure at the moment but it's a pretty scary one. (I also think we should consider labour gangs or at least make prisoners carry out tasks for the state that would save money such as laundry etc)

We could consider this much discussed tax on fast foods, wonderful idea.

They're just a few ideas I have lots more and the more I go the more right wing I get

ChRoMe

toexpress wrote: »

I go the more right wing I get

This is probably the number one thing that depresses me the most about the whole mess Ireland is in. There are folks here that would make maggie blush.

toexpress

ChRoMe wrote: »

This is probably the number one thing that depresses me the most about the whole mess Ireland is in. There are folks here that would make maggie blush.

I admire Baroness Thatcher!

You have to admit some of my ideas are good, you might agree with them but the whole idea is to cut costs to the state and ergo our tax bills.

Frankly I will look at any option so long as the elderly don't suffer and I have a big issue with the whole social welfare thing it's just to big a bill for us to manage so anything that cuts that without effecting the elderly is just fine with me.

ChRoMe

toexpress wrote: »

I admire Baroness Thatcher!

Jesus.............

You ***** deserve whatever you get.

toexpress

ChRoMe wrote: »

Jesus.............

You ***** deserve whatever you get.

Because I admire a person who did an incredible job in dreadful circumstances?

What would you have us do in our current situation?

woodoo

Tax child benefit and reduce the remaining payments by 20%

Introduce a CS/PS wide vol redundancy package

Overhaul rent allowance

Introduce very severe penalties for welfare fraud, massive fines, jail, deportations etc.

Change the PS pension levy to a paycut

Buy foreign nationals on the dole more than a year a one way ticket home.

ChRoMe

toexpress wrote: »

Because I admire a person who did an incredible job in dreadful circumstances?

What would you have us do in our current situation?

0.1 tax on the 11000 hedge funds that operate in the country that dont pay anything. That would remove any requirement to cut social services.

I deeply shocks me how far right wing the Irish have become, I'm ashamed of some the stuff I see posted here. The immediate reaction to punish the weakest in society for the benefit of the rich leaves a bad taste in my mouth

Her incredible job was squeezing the British working class for the benefit of the elite. Such regressive tax systems such as poll tax.

toexpress

woodoo wrote: »

Tax child benefit and reduce the remaining payments by 20%

Introduce a CS/PS wide vol redundancy package

Overhaul rent allowance

Introduce very severe penalties for welfare fraud, massive fines, jail, deportations etc.

Change the PS pension levy to a paycut

Buy foreign nationals on the dole more than a year a one way ticket home.

I made a good suggestion for overhauling the rent allowance system that I think is excellent.

I wouldn't be for taxing child benefit but I do think it could be means tested.

nommm

I imagine there are all sorts of sensible cuts that could be made if things in this country were run properly but alas the burden will undoubtedly lie with the middle class.

murphaph

ChRoMe wrote: »

Yeah there are a lot of things different in germany.....

The person is a member of society.

The person is first and foremost a child of someone who made the decision to bring them into the world. They are primarily responsible for them, not society at large.

What makes the 18 year and one day old person need €100 a week from the state that the 17 year and 365 day old person doesn't need?

We have to get back to the notion of the family being the primary support unit, not some government department.

ChRoMe

murphaph wrote: »

What makes the 18 year and one day old person need €100 a week from the state that the 17 year and 365 day old person doesn't need?

They are legally considered an adult.

ArmaniJeanss

toexpress wrote: »

I have a wonderful suggestion for the minister. Since we own so many empty houses and flats in NAMA why don't we cut the fringe benefits of social welfare, such as rent allowances and turn some of these ghost estates into social housing. That's a start and it will save a small fortune.

Most of these 'ghost estates' are unfinished, not connected to the ESB grid, no lighting, no access roads, no sewerage plan. Many have no local facilities.
Rather than save a small fortune I'd suggest your plan would cost a big one.

Furthermore most of the true ghost estates are in the middle of nowhere, 3 or 4 miles outside places like Carrick or Longford which themselves are not exactly prosperous towns where a sudden influx of extra unemployed is going to help the local enonomy.

carveone

ei.sdraob wrote: »

Do you want jobs or do you want corporation tax, pick one, last i checked the country needs jobs

It's that clear cut huh? Are you saying 0.5% increase in corporation tax would cause a mass fleeing from the country? Isn't that a dangerous position to be in anyway (ie: Dell) ?

Now I've worked for US companies. And I think they bring a lot of prosperity to this country. And they pay VAT and rates, which are high in and of themselves. And don't consider for a moment that I consider a policy of isolationism a reasonable one. And we do need jobs. And we have intrinsic issues here that have little to do with US manufacturing multinationals.

I'm just concerned that US companies could pull the plug at a whim and I would like to know more about why they are here. I know why they say they are here but it's not the same thing. I think there are here because we're an English speaking gateway to Europe, we're very business friendly (go to France for the opposite example), we have highly trained graduates and we have the IDA and Enterprise Ireland.

I'd just be happier if there was more native job creation and I'm uncomfortable with the level of fauning that goes on when 10 jobs are created in Google.

(But there's another thread on Google so I'll maybe let this topic die here)...

Edit: I'll also add that the Google tax thing is more complicated than I thought. Never clear cut is it... I guess I'll get that book Eddie Hobbs told me about (He was in UCD on Wednesday. He sounded a bit pissed off with the government): Economics in one lesson.

Taxi Drivers

Could hitting the Budget targets be as easy as this suggests?

Deficit targets and the €3.6 billion budget 'adjustment'

Among a few interesting things it suggests that €1 billion of the adjustment for next year will be met with "carryovers" from last year's Budget.

toexpress

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Most of these 'ghost estates' are unfinished, not connected to the ESB grid, no lighting, no access roads, no sewerage plan. Many have no local facilities.
Rather than save a small fortune I'd suggest your plan would cost a big one.

Furthermore most of the true ghost estates are in the middle of nowhere, 3 or 4 miles outside places like Carrick or Longford which themselves are not exactly prosperous towns where a sudden influx of extra unemployed is going to help the local enonomy.

There are a lot of estates that are unfinished but there are most likely enough to house those on the rent allowance. If there weren't, given the high number of construction workers on the dole get them to finish the job for their dole ... problem solved.

As for their location that is complete nonsense there are houses that are sitting empty all over the country not just Longford or Leitrim and those places weren't exactly rocking hubs on industry in the boom times anyway. Lets face it most of the economic goings on in Longford happened on Court Days