November 2011 Boards forecast contest

Sponge Bob

17.3c @ 6

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=Irel&rank=100&ano=2011&mes=11&day=13&hora=18&Send=send

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

17.3c @ 6

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynext?lang=en&state=Irel&rank=100&ano=2011&mes=11&day=13&hora=18&Send=send

The 17.3 wasn't actually recorded at 6 pm, that's just when the day's max is reported. The value at 6pm was 15.0 °C.

http://ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?ind=03953&lang=en&decoded=yes&ndays=2&ano=2011&mes=11&day=13&hora=18

Joe Public

Valentia is hitting the highs again!

MiNdGaM3

I wonder if Valentia could be getting some kind of fohn effect from the Macgillycuddy's Reeks?

pauldry

Id say so.

Thats the only way these type of temperatures happen at this time of year as well as the high 850s which Ive only learned about lately due to the good people on the weather forum

Also changed the 13 to a 14 in the ogimet code and see that Valentia has hit 17.1c today.

btw is there any easier way to get into ogimet Ireland stations link that is easier to remember rather than spanish endings after the main URL

M.T. Cranium

Some incomplete data but this past week (to the 15th) saw the IMT around 11.3 C bringing the monthly very close to 10.0 C to date ... certainly above 9.8 anyway, so given the range of predictions, all of us could use a cooling trend that is only faintly in evidence past the weekend.

To the 15th it remained dry at about 50% or a bit lower, but of course that will be academic by about Monday after three heavy rainfall events plus whatever fell yesterday. I'm estimating that the rainfall percentage will rise to about 110% at least in the third quarter of the month (on the basis of a 240% week).

It has also remained quite sunny until the past day or two, with that figure standing at 165% after the first half of the month (estimated due to some missing data). That will come down rather steadily for the next few days.

Just in case anyone missed it, we have the WINTER FORECAST CONTEST underway and there's just today and Friday left to enter without penalty.

waterways

nilhg is leading at the moment or so with 52 knots on Sherkin Island yesterday.

pauldry

Notice lately that Met Eireann are missing lots of data for stations.

How is this going to affect MTs forecast competitions?

Are we doomed to a Forecast Competitionless Future due to Automatic Stations?

M.T. Cranium

So far, this trend (missing data) has not impacted on the monthly summaries which continue to appear on time (first working day of the month) and with all data available. So it only affects these updates that we post at various intervals. The next of those will be Wed 23rd covering 16-22 or whatever I can find that looks remotely close.

pauldry

IMT 10.4c for the past 7 days (3rd week)

Dont know what it is overall as Ive lost track but MT will know.

Shhhhhtt! thats some temperature for November isnt it?:eek:

Joe Public

Look on the bright side, the colder and windier weather forecasted to finish out the month will give a little lift to some drooping scores.

M.T. Cranium

There was a full listing of data for the past week in the Ag Report so based on that, the IMT for the week was 9.6 C leaving the month around 9.8 C, precip for the eleven stations in the summary was 120% bringing that up to around 72% and sunshine was 82% which reduces that value to 128% for the month.

Would not expect a great deal of change in any of those towards the end of the month although the IMT is bound to be reduced slightly, but even so, may finish above all of our predictions.

pauldry

Belmullet is on a one man mission to set the gust figure for the month 64knot so far.

However this may be beaten later and also at the weekend or early next week.(When Malin and Finner may join in the fun):)

Scorpdoc

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

Yikes :eek: Scorpdoc is expecting a repeat of hurricane Debbie!!!!!!

At the time I felt this month is going to be a stormy one, was right about that,but maybe not as extreme .
But the weather has been rotten.:mad:

Sponge Bob

57 gust in Belmullet today, rotten squalls out there today

Wild Bill

Sponge - is that in kph, knots or mph?

Really.

I'm not a mind-reader.

Also as my wind-thingy reports in kph, so I recognise knots not.

We got a blast of 34 kph here earlier...I suspect that's less than 53 knots.

M.T. Cranium

Knots are "nautical miles per hour" and as such are about 15% larger than miles per hour which are 1.6 times kilometres per hour. That works out to km/h being about 185% of knots. Example, 60 knots x 1.85 about 111 km/hr. 60 knots would equate to almost 70 mph.

So just about double to get from knots to km/h, basically.

We use knots as the unit of measurement in all boards contests as these are the reporting units for the Met Eireann site.

Wild Bill

So 34kph is about 34/1.85 knots........

I'm guessing that's less than 53

Sponge Bob

Wild Bill wrote: »

I'm guessing that's less than 53

My my, how you have tied yourself up in Knots Bill. :cool:

Deep Easterly

November IMT finished at 9.6c, which is 3.0c above the 61-90 average.

Mean Max: 12.6c (+2.9c) | Mean Min: 6.5c (+3.1c)

Graph showing IMT monthly anomaly for the January - November period this year:



Interesting to see that all the spring & Autumn months were above average, whilst all the summer ones were below!! Remains to be seen how December will finish.


IMR (not used in competition) percentage of normal rainfall for November: 122.1%

M.T. Cranium

G'day and welcome to meteorological winter. Thanks to DE for the IMT which is confirmed to be 9.6 C ... "mercy rule" will no doubt apply to scoring.

Other contest final figures will be:

MAX 17.3 C (Valentia, 13th)

MIN -2.3 C (Mullingar, 6th)

PRC 120% (11 stations, pretty close to the "IMR" as per DE above, 6 were above normal, 5 below, and Valentia led with 203%)

SUN 120% (6 stations, all but Cork above normal)

BONUS ... max wind gust reported as 65 knots at Belmullet

Added note: I have no confirmed snowfall reports at official stations, looking into possible snow at Knock on 29th, so we're "on hold" with the October bonus for the time being. Heading over to the Annual scoring thread to add up the totals for November and then to update the annual race.

Would estimate that being finished by 1800h and 1900h respectively. Don't forget to enter December which is now pinned (to the mat).

Su Campu

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Added note: I have no confirmed snowfall reports at official stations, looking into possible snow at Knock on 29th, so we're "on hold" with the October bonus for the time being. Heading over to the Annual scoring thread to add up the totals for November and then to update the annual race.

The only wintry precipitation reported on the 29th synops was a Hail shower at 1600. There are no weather-types quoted in the synops during the night, however, as there are no observers, so we can't say what happened then.

Rikand

yay! winner