Dublin West By-Election

MrJoeSoap

Hi guys,

As useless as it may turn out to be, I thought it might be at least interesting to run an exit poll here for the By-Election later today. Please only vote here if you voted in the election itself, and please pick your first preference vote.

Cheers! (poll now up)

Pepe LeFrits

Nice one. I intend on voting for O'Gorman but will hold off submitting here lest I get cold feet or hit by a bus before this evening...

MrJoeSoap

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

Nice one. I intend on voting for O'Gorman but will hold off submitting here lest I get cold feet or hit by a bus before this evening...

You never know with this country, especially after what happened on Monday...

doubletrouble?

even as people make their way up to vote i'm still undecided on who to vote for in both elections. as for judges pay i'll be voting for them to take a cut and no on the other thing for jobs for the boys.

MrJoeSoap

doubletrouble? wrote: »

even as people make their way up to vote i'm still undecided on who to vote for in both elections. as for judges pay i'll be voting for them to take a cut and no on the other thing for jobs for the boys.

The problem with the two elections is that they are seriously over-crowded. 7 Presidential candidates (albeit only 2 or 3 real candidates depending on your viewpoint) and 13 for the by-election is crazy. Throw in two referendums and it's a serious case of information overload.

I honestly know nothing of half the by-election candidates.

athtrasna

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

ronan45

Own up, who was messing by clicking on Barry Casear Hunt

MrJoeSoap

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

Which candidate and which polling station? Spill the beans!

hotmail.com

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

The problem with the two elections is that they are seriously over-crowded. 7 Presidential candidates (albeit only 2 or 3 real candidates depending on your viewpoint) and 13 for the by-election is crazy. Throw in two referendums and it's a serious case of information overload.

I honestly know nothing of half the by-election candidates.

There was 25 candidates in one constituency (Wicklow) at the last general election. It's called democracy.

MrJoeSoap

hotmail.com wrote: »

There was 25 candidates in one constituency (Wicklow) at the last general election. It's called democracy.

Yes and there were 10 in the last general election in Dublin West, 8 months ago. Where did the new 6 come from? I'm not questioning their right to run, I'm questioning why some of them bother.

athtrasna

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Which candidate and which polling station? Spill the beans!

Most of them! Blanch Village (VEC)

oblivious

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Many independents i have never heard of and what an a will a wicklow farmer or westmeath Fas employee offer Dublin 15 ?

oblivious

Barry Caesar Hunt had gotten two votes so far ! :eek:

MrJoeSoap

oblivious wrote: »

Barry Caesar Hunt had gotten two votes so far ! :eek:

Probably about as many as he'll get in the actual voting...

spooky donkey

well I have yet to vote as im still in work but I cast mine here. I think it should go to nulty as he only lost out last time by a hairs breath.

Yes hit the judges pay, not sure about the other thing.

Also Ill never again vote for an IND... anything. They could be fina failers in disguise......

MrJoeSoap

Whatever you think of yer man Caesar Hunt, he's definitely the first person I've seen who's tried to pull a 'Blue Steel' on a ballot paper.

MrJoeSoap

Zaph wrote: »

Plenty of them in Hartstown, but the ones that really annoyed me were the McGuinness ones that were so low on the lamppost that I couldn't see the traffic coming from my right without pulling out a lot further than I'd have liked.

If Sean Gallagher has proved anything with this election campaign, it is that you don't need posters to become a serious contender. Hopefully there is a proper review on the cards in the years to come.

The railings opposite the shops in Clonsilla village are just littered with posters, it's such an eye-sore.

tenandtracer

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Whatever you think of yer man Caesar Hunt, he's definitely the first person I've seen who's tried to pull a 'Blue Steel' on a ballot paper.

That Caesar Hunt, so hot right now!

ThisRegard

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

The only one at my station was the Hunt, right at the entrance to the school.

Pepe LeFrits

Went for Roddy, Nulty #2.

athtrasna

Zaph wrote: »

Plenty of them in Hartstown, but the ones that really annoyed me were the McGuinness ones that were so low on the lamppost that I couldn't see the traffic coming from my right without pulling out a lot further than I'd have liked.

Which McGuinness? I reckon the FF one picked up some votes from people thinking it was Martin

Trend looks right, I think O'Gorman will pull the middle of the road protest votes, will be interesting!

Zaph

athtrasna wrote: »

Which McGuinness? I reckon the FF one picked up some votes from people thinking it was Martin

Sorry, should have clearer, David McGuinness.

MrJoeSoap

Strangely enough, O'Gorman is the highest priced candidate from any of the main parties on Betfair, at 21/1. Nulty leads the way at 1/2, with Coppinger second at just under 2/1.

athtrasna

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Strangely enough, O'Gorman is the highest priced candidate from any of the main parties on Betfair, at 21/1. Nulty leads the way at 1/2, with Coppinger second at just under 2/1.

Interesting indeed. Don't think Coppinger will feature in the running at the end, Lenihan's personal vote will mobilise to stop that. I think it could be between Nulty & O'Gorman, with Loftus in third.

Pepe LeFrits

If O'Gorman was elected, would that make him leader of the Green party? :pac:

Godge

athtrasna wrote: »

Interesting indeed. Don't think Coppinger will feature in the running at the end, Lenihan's personal vote will mobilise to stop that. I think it could be between Nulty & O'Gorman, with Loftus in third.

Dream on, ain't going to happen.

Overall, Dublin West is slightly left of centre. That favours Nulty as he is the most likely of the two candidates (himself and Coppinger) to pick up second preferences from Loftus and I see him winning even if Coppinger is ahead on the first count.

The only fly in the ointment would be a strong performance by Loftus to put her out in front. If Nulty finished third, she might get enough second preferences from him to take the seat. Very unlikely to happen but 85% certain to be Nulty.

athtrasna

Tallies from Swords/Blanch show Nulty ahead, followed by McGuinness (who is just 0.1% ahead of Coppinger).

RT @suzybie: Nulty 26.9, Coppinger 21.3, Loftus 13.7, McGuinness 21.4, Donnelly 7.5, O'Gorman 4.7. Tally of 20% of boxes skewed to Swords/Blanch #dubw

athtrasna

From political journalist Maria Shannon

50% #dubw tallied: DMG 22%, EL 14.4%, PN 26.1%, ROG 5.3%, PD 7.5%, RC 20.3% Ind 4.4%

athtrasna

Latest tallies:

68% of #dubw tallied. Nulty 25.2, McGuinness 22%, Coppinger 20%, Loftus 14%, Donnelly 8% and O Gorman 5

godscop

athtrasna wrote: »

Latest tallies:

Thanks Athtrasna

athtrasna

From Philip Boucher Hayes of RTE

#dubwest 70% Tally - Lab: 25.2% FF: 22% SP: 20.1% SF: 8.2% Nulty's election agent told me he's "quietly confident"

How did we manage before Twitter?