Heineken Cup - General Discussion Thread

Podge_irl

Group winners are ranked ahead of runners up regardless of the number of points

danthefan

molloyjh wrote: »

D'oh. I know how to read, I swears I does.

Ok so, in light of the obvious...

1. Leinster 25 points
2. Sarries 23 points
3. Toulouse 22 points
4. Munster 22 points
5. Edinburgh 21 points
6. Quinns 21 points
7. Clermont 20 points
8. Ulster 19 points

Which would mean:

Leinster - Ulster (Leinster to win)
Sarries - Clermont (Clermont to win)
Toulouse - Quinns (Toulouse to win - can't see Quinns doing it twice)
Munster - Edinburgh (Munster to win)

Some really mouth-watering games in the semis and the final if that's the case! Does that mean Clermont would travel to Dublin and Munster to Toulouse?

This also can't happen. You can't have two teams from one pool in the top 6.

Edit - beaten to it.

vinny chase

My predictions:

1. Leinster- 25 points
2. Toulouse - 22 points
3. Munster - 22 points
4. Saracens - 22 points
5. Clermont Auvergne - 21 points
6. Cardiff - 18 points
7. Leicester - 21 points
8. Harlequins - 20 points

So that would leave:

Leinster v Harlequins
Toulouse v Leicester
Munster v Cardiff
Saracens v Clermont Auvergne

danthefan

vinny chase wrote: »

So that would leave:

Leinster v Harlequins
Munster v Leicester
Toulouse v Cardiff
Saracens v Clermont Auvergne

That is a serious QF lineup, would love that.

vinny chase

danthefan wrote: »

That is a serious QF lineup, would love that.

Having looked at it again though; I'd probably swap Toulouse and Munster. Munster's current point diff is only +14, Toulouse +34. Whilst I have Munster getting the bonus against Castres at home in my predictions, I don't think they'll outscore Toulouse down the stretch.

Fireball07

I think it will end up like this:

Leinster- 25
Saracens- 23
Toulouse- 22
Munster- 22
Cardiff- 22
Clermont- 20
Harlequins- 21
Edinburgh- 21


Munster could also end up beating Northampton, which would bring them to 25, although a bonus point against Castres isn't a certainty by any stretch of the imagination.

If it does end as above, it'd be hard to say who'd be home and away in a match between Cardiff and Munster. If Munster win against NH, they'd be playing Harlequins...which would be tough. Any team who can beat Toulouse in France are a side to be feared.

Toulouse V Clermont could be a great match if Clermont really went for it.

wixfjord

vinny chase wrote: »

Having looked at it again though; I'd probably swap Toulouse and Munster. Munster's current point diff is only +14, Toulouse +34. Whilst I have Munster getting the bonus against Castres at home in my predictions, I don't think they'll outscore Toulouse down the stretch.

It's try difference though not points isn't it?

vinny chase

wixfjord wrote: »

It's try difference though not points isn't it?

Apologies if I was wrong on that; not sure being honest with you.

I think it'll probably still be the same outcome in that event though!

totallegend

vinny chase wrote: »

Apologies if I was wrong on that; not sure being honest with you.

I think it'll probably still be the same outcome in that event though!

Teams on the same match points after the pool stages are separated by tries scored, so as things stand now, Leinster are in pole position. But other group leaders haven't racked up huge numbers of tries either; Toulouse are on nine, Saracens ten with Munster on seven. Crossing the lines a few times against Castres would help their cause.

wixfjord

PR team of round 4

15 Mike Brown (Harlequins) - Plenty had thrust themselves into the mix for our 15 jersey but two-try Brown saw off Rob Kearney, Olly Morgan and Ben Foden after starring at Le Stadium.

14 Charlie Sharples (Gloucester) - We made an exception to look the other way with shirt numbers at flank, and came close to doing the same here as 11s Ugo Monye, Timoci Matanavou and Rory Lamont were strong. But we opt to stick with a 14 and Sharples was the best of them as he continues to bang on the door for England.

13 Florian Fritz (Toulouse) - What a performance that was from the replacement centre. He was a rock for the French and didn't deserve to be on the losing side after carrying like that.

12 Jonathan Davies (Scarlets) - Another good day at the office for the ever-improving Welshman. Warren Gatland must be delighted with his midfield options at the moment.

11 Luke Fitzgerald (Leinster) - Many have put this versatile player down over the years, but on Saturday he silenced all of his doubters at Aviva Stadium with pace aplenty. Two tries were richly deserved as that effort will have made Declan Kidney sit up and take note.

10 Nick Evans (Harlequins) - Niall O'Connor was metronomic with his kicking in Gloucester but Evans was the master on Sunday. He had the ball on a string, setting up tries, kicking well and overall just being an accomplished director for the triumphant Quins. The two Jonathans, Wisniewski and Sexton, were also good in Round 4 for Racing and Leinster.

9 Conor Murray (Munster) - Much like the Sexton-O'Gara battle, there is one at scrum-half for Ireland. Eoin Reddan was good but man-of-the-match Murray shone for Munster.

8 Thomas Waldrom (Leicester) - His showing proved just how much of a loss he was to the Tigers a week ago in Clermont-Ferrand. A top effort from Waldrom. Mentions are fully deserved for Netani Talei, Samu Manoa, James Coughlin and Nick Easter for their shifts.

7 Jules Salvi (Leicester) - Strong a week ago in France and was up to the task again as Leicester fought back for a priceless win in Pool 4. His try proved the catalyst for Tigers.

6 Jacques Burger (Saracens) - Wore 7 but we just had to get him into our weekly XV. What can you say about this Namibian? His performances do not waver each weekend and he was his usual bustling self in Swansea. He's pushing hard for a spot in our Team of 2011.

5 Devin Toner (Leinster) - The tallest man at Aviva Stadium used all of his height, speed and skills on Saturday as he starred for the champions. He will remember that offload.

4 George Robson (Harlequins) - His stock has risen after that gritty and all-action offering. Toulouse's Yoann Maestri and Ian Gough from the Ospreys also deserve a pat on the back.

3 John Afoa (Ulster) - Man-of-the-match in Monza as he continues to justify the Northern Irish province's decision to sign him as BJ Botha's replacement. The Blues will miss him.

2 William Servat (Toulouse) - David Paice was decent with a try for London Irish but the solidity of France hooker Servat had to be admired, even if he was on the losing side.

1 Tom Court (Ulster) - Fresh from a new deal until 2014, he was another reason why Ulster dominated up front. Yes, the opposition was not the best but one has to beat what is in front of you, and the prop definitely did his job in laying the foundations for Ulster to pull away.

[Jackass]

My quarter finals...

(1) Leinster v (8) Leicester
(2) Saracens v (7) Quins
(3) Tolouse v (6) Cardiff
(4) Munster v (5) Clermont

My permutations:

1. Leinster to win away to Glasgow and at home to Montpellier.
2. Saracens to win at home to Biraritz and away to Treviso, with either 1 BP or better trys scored than Toulouse
3. Tolouse to get 9 points from Connacht at home & Gloucester away
4. Munster to get BP win at home to Castres, but losing BP in Fraklin Gardens.
5. Clermont to get BP win away to Aironi and win v Ulster at home
6. Cardiff to get 5 points from London Irish away & Racing Metro at home
7. Quins to get 2 wins from Gloucester at home and Connacht away
8. Leicester to get losing BP in Ravenhill and 5 point win to Aironi

CouchSmart

[Jackass] wrote: »

My quarter finals...

(1) Leinster v (8) Leicester
(2) Saracens v (7) Quins
(3) Tolouse v (6) Cardiff
(4) Munster v (5) Clermont

If that quarter happens it's nearly a guarantee that the winner of it will get a home semi. Definitely beyond coincidence how the hosting nation always seems to end up with teams getting home semi finals.

They'd be interesting quarters though. Leinster same as last year - doing well in their group and end up getting a top team like Leicester! Bar the Toulouse game most of those games would be really close. If Cardiff can improve then we'd have 4 classics on our hands. Munster v Clermont has me drooling right now and it's only hypothetical!

castie

molloyjh wrote: »

D'oh. I know how to read, I swears I does.

Ok so, in light of the obvious...

1. Leinster 25 points
2. Sarries 23 points
3. Toulouse 22 points
4. Munster 22 points
5. Edinburgh 21 points
6. Quinns 21 points
7. Clermont 20 points
8. Ulster 19 points

Which would mean:

Leinster - Ulster (Leinster to win)
Sarries - Clermont (Clermont to win)
Toulouse - Quinns (Toulouse to win - can't see Quinns doing it twice)
Munster - Edinburgh (Munster to win)

Some really mouth-watering games in the semis and the final if that's the case! Does that mean Clermont would travel to Dublin and Munster to Toulouse?

Clermont and Ulster also cant both be in the best runners up together.

Podge_irl

CouchSmart wrote: »

If that quarter happens it's nearly a guarantee that the winner of it will get a home semi. Definitely beyond coincidence how the hosting nation always seems to end up with teams getting home semi finals.

It really isn't.

JustinDee

CouchSmart wrote: »

If that quarter happens it's nearly a guarantee that the winner of it will get a home semi. Definitely beyond coincidence how the hosting nation always seems to end up with teams getting home semi finals

It is results-based unless you're inferring that somehow the games are fixed?

Podge_irl

JustinDee wrote: »

It is results-based unless you're inferring that somehow the games are fixed?

The semi-finals aren't result based, they're a random draw. He's implying the draw is fixed to increase the chance of a "home" team in the final. Which is silly for a whole host of reasons, not least of which being the enormous lawsuit they'd face if it came to light.

JustinDee

Podge_irl wrote: »

The semi-finals aren't result based, they're a random draw. He's implying the draw is fixed to increase the chance of a "home" team in the final. Which is silly for a whole host of reasons, not least of which being the enormous lawsuit they'd face if it came to light.

I was talking about the quarter-final.
And yep, I think the conspiracy theory of fixing the games is u-bend material.

totallegend

Podge_irl wrote: »

The semi-finals aren't result based, they're a random draw. He's implying the draw is fixed to increase the chance of a "home" team in the final. Which is silly for a whole host of reasons, not least of which being the enormous lawsuit they'd face if it came to light.

Yeah, it's boll*cks, it first came up two years ago when both Biarritz and Toulouse got home SFs when the final was to be played in Paris.

Then Serge Blanco came out crying 'fix' last year when the home semi-finals went to Irish/UK clubs and that the draw was done in secret. When someone pointed out to Serge that a) it was actually done live on Sky and b) his beloved Biarritz had benefitted from the system the previous year, he quietly dropped his objections...

durkadurka

I plan to start a conspiracy theory thread the week before the draw so that the theorists can state their prediction.


Last year I seem to remember that whatever the outcome it was exactly what THEY wanted

errlloyd

totallegend wrote: »

Yeah, it's boll*cks, it first came up two years ago when both Biarritz and Toulouse got home SFs when the final was to be played in Paris.

Then Serge Blanco came out crying 'fix' last year when the home semi-finals went to Irish/UK clubs and that the draw was done in secret. When someone pointed out to Serge that a) it was actually done live on Sky and b) his beloved Biarritz had benefitted from the system the previous year, he quietly dropped his objections...

And of course everyone knows he fixes the group draws to get Italians anyway.... Not that it seems to help...

bamboozle

errlloyd wrote: »

And of course everyone knows he fixes the group draws to get Italians anyway.... Not that it seems to help...

+1, they get an italian team in their group every season it would seem...

andrewdcs

Random reminder to anyone who hasn't got some yet on public sale, tickets to the inevitable Leinster Vs. Munster "Ireland Takes All" final at Twickenham are down to dregs via dirty ticketmaster (the ryanair of ticketing websites, with an incredible dance of clicks to avoid all their "extras".... bluudy hell)

andrewdcs

JustinDee wrote: »

I was talking about the quarter-final.
And yep, I think the conspiracy theory of fixing the games is u-bend material.

I'd love to agree, but having seen all other sports over the past ehm, ever, not thinking that things are fixed somewhere in some way is u-bend!

Boxing, football, cricket, Olympic medals, to Enron, LTCM and Anglo....
It's all a fix, soylent green is people!


No matter what THEY try, the final WILL be Leinster vs Munster.

PTH2009

I think the final 4 will be

Munster, Leinster, Toulouse and Saracens.

Semis
Munster vs Leinster- Leinster
Toulouse vs Saracens- Saracens

Leinster vs Saracens- Final (Leinster winning)

4PP

errlloyd wrote: »

And of course everyone knows he fixes the group draws to get Italians anyway.... Not that it seems to help...

Not Blanco personnally, Serge Kampf does it for him

JustinDee

andrewdcs wrote: »

I'd love to agree, but having seen all other sports over the past ehm, ever, not thinking that things are fixed somewhere in some way is u-bend!

Boxing, football, cricket, Olympic medals, to Enron, LTCM and Anglo....

It's all a fix, soylent green is people!

No matter what THEY try, the final WILL be Leinster vs Munster.

People should ignore this post. Ignore the subtle spoiler!

GerM

Pretty sure Gary Botha just broke his leg for Toulouse in the clash with Montpellier. Awful looking injury. Servat going to be very important for them now. Toulouse depth is, as always, scary looking at the starting side and comparing it to that which started the Quins game.

Morf

GerM wrote: »

Pretty sure Gary Botha just broke his leg for Toulouse in the clash with Montpellier. Awful looking injury. Servat going to be very important for them now. Toulouse depth is, as always, scary looking at the starting side and comparing it to that which started the Quins game.

The last awful injury I heard about was Thomas Domingo and I regretted seeing that so I won't search out this one. Still amazing recoveries do happen see: Rougerie.

totallegend

Damn I love the Heineken Cup, another huge weekend of rugby coming up.

Tie of the round has to be Ulster v Tigers on Friday night, this is going to be massive. Ulster need to come out of this game with a win but it's equally crucial that they don't give Tigers a losing bonus point - if they do, and Tigers get a try BP against Aironi, Ulster will need to get something in Clermont to have any hope of progress...

Elsewhere, Saracens can seal top spot in their group with a win at home against Biarritz. Were that to happen, it would pretty much end any hopes Biarritz have of progessing. The Ospreys look to be out of it, barring a freak run of results.

The most interesting pool is Pool 2, in which all four teams can still technically top the group. The team Racing send out against Edinburgh in Paris on Friday will give a good indication of their intentions, hopefully they'll put out a full-strength side for their home crowd. A win for Cardiff in London will put them in the driving seat, being ahead of Edinburgh in the head-to-head, but two home wins for LI and Racing would throw this pool wide open.

Leinster and Munster should both seal their QF places this weekend and their final round games should be about nailing down home advantage.

Toulouse and Harlequins will both be looking for two wins in the last two rounds and so pool six will probably provide two quarter-finalists. Toulouse look to be set fair to top the group and get a home QF, unless Gloucester can upset them in the final round. Connacht go to Toulouse on Saturday playing for pride and not much else.

My predictions for round 5:
Ospreys v Treviso
Ulster v Leicester
Racing v Edinburgh
Scarlets v Northampton
Montpellier v Bath
Aironi v Clermont
London Irish v Cardiff
Munster v Castres
Toulouse v Connacht
Harlequins v Gloucester
Glasgow v Leinster
Saracens v Biarritz

thomond2006

I would love if Aironi put it up to Clermont.

keane2097

Anyone hear anything about Saracens supposedly being in South Africa on a week's training excursion ahead of the game against Biarritz?

Seems a bit mental before such a big game...

ormond lad

keane2097 wrote: »

Anyone hear anything about Saracens supposedly being in South Africa on a week's training excursion ahead of the game against Biarritz?

Seems a bit mental before such a big game...

in cape town for a weeks warm weather training, they are playing Stellenbosch uni in a game at the moment
http://www.saracens.com/news/view.php?Id=6739

justsomebloke

sure didn't Saracens originally want to play the Biarritz match in South Africa

ormond lad

justsomebloke wrote: »

sure didn't Saracens originally want to play the Biarritz match in South Africa

They did and once that was stopped they decided to go down there anyway and have a training camp

keane2097

The only reason they went over this week with the game not going ahead from what I can see is that they had the flights booked already.

All that travelling surely gonna count against them at the weekend?

CatFromHue

thomond2006 wrote: »

I would love if Aironi put it up to Clermont.

They don't have a great away record in the TOP 14 since the end of the RWC:
Lyon 6 - 6 Clermont Auvergne
Brive 6 - 9 Clermont Auvergne
Montpellier 29 - 23 Clermont Auvergne
Stade Français 37 - 16 Clermont Auvergne

Then they've also lost away to both Ulster and Leicester in the HEC.

According to Clermonts website the below players are all out:
- Marck Bennett (anterior cruciate ligament rupture)
- Thomas Domingo (rupture of the anterior cruciate ligament)
- Davit Zirakashvili (radius fracture)
- Kini Murimurivalu (herniated disc)
- Ludovic Radosavljevic (sprained knee)
- Gerhard Vosloo (calf bruise) Uncertain for the meeting of the HCUP against Aironi

If Aironi win or draw Clermont would be out.
Just stopping them getting the try bonus, which they did at home to Leicester, could be a massive help to Ulster.

cgpg5

Would bloody love to see Ulster qualify although I fear that they'll come up short.

So unlucky last year can't remember exactly but was it Adam Darcy who spurned a clear try scoring opportunity against Saints? Had they scored that they were in the semis imo

irishbucsfan

keane2097 wrote: »

The only reason they went over this week with the game not going ahead from what I can see is that they had the flights booked already.

All that travelling surely gonna count against them at the weekend?

Don't think the flight would harm them as much as a game against stellenbosch

lologram

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Don't think the flight would harm them as much as a game against stellenbosch

Except it's their second side, with the subs being provided by Stellenbosch. So far as I remember from the press release anyway

Flincher

Phil Godman scored a last minute drop goal to give Edinburgh a win over Metro. That leaves them on 17 points, and their last game is against London Irish at home. A win would put them through unless Quins pick up 2 bonus points and Ulster beat Clermont.

I think this could be the most exciting year in a while. The quarter finals could come right down to the last games next Sunday.

thomond2006

Edinburgh win at the death at Racing, with a Phil Godman drop goal. It looks like 2 teams could come out of that Pool, certainly if Cardiff can beat London Irish.

Ospreys won at home with a try bonus point against Treviso.

Flincher

That Edinburgh win isn't a good result for Ulster. I think Ulster need to lose to Clermont by less than 5 to top the group. If they don't get the bonus point, then they need one of Cardiff, Edinbugh or Quins to lose a game.

CIARAN_BOYLE

Attendence of 5,411 in the liberty tonight

LFC5Times

What are peoples views on Aironi v Clermont? Obviously Clermont will be hoping to win and probably get a bonus point too.

Do Aironi have much chance of causing an upset?

CIARAN_BOYLE

LFC5Times wrote: »

What are peoples views on Aironi v Clermont? Obviously Clermont will be hoping to win and probably get a bonus point too.

Do Aironi have much chance of causing an upset?

I'd think its a major upset if Airon can prevent Clermont getting a bonus

cgpg5

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

I'd think its a major upset if Airon can prevent Clermont getting a bonus

While I can't see Aironi winning they can certainly stop Clermont getting the bonus. It is unlikely but Clermont have an horrendous away record in Europe and all the pressure is on them. Aironi are going out with nothing to lose and are on the back of a very impressive thumping of Connacht.

Mind you Clermont could just as easily run out 8 tries but I just hope that Aironi can frustrate them enough and give them a good game and play with the in-your-face attitude like they deployed against Connacht.

.ak

How will the result of the Scarlets saints match effect ulster if they come second in the pool? I.e will the best runner up spot be easier to attain if scarlets lose this?

ANXIOUS

Did anyone else think the north hampton yellow was very harsh?

Flincher

.ak wrote: »

How will the result of the Scarlets saints match effect ulster if they come second in the pool? I.e will the best runner up spot be easier to attain if scarlets lose this?

A loss for the Scarlets takes them out of contention, so they would be one less team for Ulster to worry about. Scarlets are currently on 11, and Ulster are on 19.

The Scarlets need a 2 wins and a bonus point to finish ahead of Ulster (or 2 wins and 2 bonus points if Ulster getting losing bonus in Clermont)

justsomebloke

ANXIOUS wrote: »

Did anyone else think the north hampton yellow was very harsh?

A bit, but still a stupid thing to do. A yellow card in under 2 minutes though, it's really the first stand out thing northampton have done in the comp