Heineken Cup - General Discussion Thread

ironingbored

Gloucester similar to Scarlets today in that just couldn't get a try when in the Quins 22.

They did make Quins look very ordinary though.

leonard7

fantastic game maybe not for quality but definitely for excitement

totallegend

thomond2006 wrote: »

Try Quins. Bad news for Ulster.

They need a big favour from either Connacht, Gloucester or London Irish. I don't see it happening in any of them. Amlin beckons for Ulster.

leonard7

could beat clermont (sadly doubt it) but...i'm not condemning anyone to the amlin quite yet

durkadurka

totallegend wrote: »

They need a big favour from either Connacht, Gloucester or London Irish. I don't see it happening in any of them. Amlin beckons for Ulster.

Cardiff and embra also need to win, I wouldn't rule anything out.

cgpg5

totallegend wrote: »

They need a big favour from either Connacht, Gloucester or London Irish. I don't see it happening in any of them. Amlin beckons for Ulster.

Its looking that way, I'm sorry for Ulster that they got such a tough group. However its not unthinkable that Ulster can get a win in France, the odds are firmly against them but then again no-one thought they'd hammer Leicester by as much

cgpg5

Should Quins beat Connacht without getting a BP and if Ulster get a LBP in France (both will be on 20) then who qualifies?

irishbucsfan

Gloucester have a good pack. Terrible scrum but the rest of it was impressive.

Podge_irl

cgpg5 wrote: »

Should Quins beat Connacht without getting a BP and if Ulster get a LBP in France (both will be on 20) then who qualifies?

Whoever has scored more tries.

totallegend

Podge_irl wrote: »

cgpg5 wrote: »

Should Quins beat Connacht without getting a BP and if Ulster get a LBP in France (both will be on 20) then who qualifies?

Whoever has scored more tries.

Ulster presumably? Three try bps have to help...

DeDoc

Podge_irl wrote: »

Whoever has scored more tries.

Ulster are currently 16-10 ahead on try count compared to Quins. So they'll win that battle if it comes to it.

I think they're far from done yet.

Quins are far from certain to win in Galway, and likewise Toulouse in Gloucester - though both will be solid favourites. Both have to win to overtake ulster (unless Toulouse get a draw or bag two losing bonus points). FWIW, Toulouse have 13 trues, so Ulster are currently ahead on that front too.
Also I think the Embra-Irish game is far from decided. Embra may be on 4/5 wins and 17 points, but they've scraped wins in 3 of those games in the last few mins. Irish are doing well in the league (currently 5th and only 2 points off 3rd) and this will be their last serious game till they play Quins in a month. They won't lose too many bodies to the 6N either, so I think they'll give this game a crack. They've a strong enough pack and I think Embra are vulnerable. Ultimately given what is at stake, you'd have to make Embra favourites, but they won't be overwhelming favourites

In summary you're looking at 4 results (most more likely than unlikely, but still) to go against Ulster (assuming they can get a bonus).
If I was taking a wild guess, I'd the probabilities would be something like:
Cardiff win: 95%
Quins win with a bonus point: 10%
Toulouse win in Gloucester: 75%
Embra win against Irish: 60%
Probability of all 4: 4-5%

So if Ulster can get a LBP, they'd be pretty unlucky not to go through IMO.

.ak

The Quins game was definitely the most entertaining game of the night. What's the chances of getting Hopper in an Irish jersey?

cgpg5

DeDoc wrote: »

Ulster are currently 16-10 ahead on try count compared to Quins. So they'll win that battle if it comes to it.

I think they're far from done yet.

Quins are far from certain to win in Galway, and likewise Toulouse in Gloucester - though both will be solid favourites. Both have to win to overtake ulster (unless Toulouse get a draw or bag two losing bonus points). FWIW, Toulouse have 13 trues, so Ulster are currently ahead on that front too.
Also I think the Embra-Irish game is far from decided. Embra may be on 4/5 wins and 17 points, but they've scraped wins in 3 of those games in the last few mins. Irish are doing well in the league (currently 5th and only 2 points off 3rd) and this will be their last serious game till they play Quins in a month. They won't lose too many bodies to the 6N either, so I think they'll give this game a crack. They've a strong enough pack and I think Embra are vulnerable. Ultimately given what is at stake, you'd have to make Embra favourites, but they won't be overwhelming favourites

In summary you're looking at 4 results (most more likely than unlikely, but still) to go against Ulster (assuming they can get a bonus).
If I was taking a wild guess, I'd the probabilities would be something like:
Cardiff win: 95%
Quins win with a bonus point: 10%
Toulouse win in Gloucester: 75%
Embra win against Irish: 60%
Probability of all 4: 4-5%

So if Ulster can get a LBP, they'd be pretty unlucky not to go through IMO.

That is incredibly optimistic I feel that there is a far greater chance than 10% that Quins will get a BP in the sportsground next week..

.ak

DeDoc wrote: »

Ulster are currently 16-10 ahead on try count compared to Quins. So they'll win that battle if it comes to it.

I think they're far from done yet.

Quins are far from certain to win in Galway, and likewise Toulouse in Gloucester - though both will be solid favourites. Both have to win to overtake ulster (unless Toulouse get a draw or bag two losing bonus points). FWIW, Toulouse have 13 trues, so Ulster are currently ahead on that front too.
Also I think the Embra-Irish game is far from decided. Embra may be on 4/5 wins and 17 points, but they've scraped wins in 3 of those games in the last few mins. Irish are doing well in the league (currently 5th and only 2 points off 3rd) and this will be their last serious game till they play Quins in a month. They won't lose too many bodies to the 6N either, so I think they'll give this game a crack. They've a strong enough pack and I think Embra are vulnerable. Ultimately given what is at stake, you'd have to make Embra favourites, but they won't be overwhelming favourites

In summary you're looking at 4 results (most more likely than unlikely, but still) to go against Ulster (assuming they can get a bonus).
If I was taking a wild guess, I'd the probabilities would be something like:
Cardiff win: 95%
Quins win with a bonus point: 10%
Toulouse win in Gloucester: 75%
Embra win against Irish: 60%
Probability of all 4: 4-5%

So if Ulster can get a LBP, they'd be pretty unlucky not to go through IMO.

So basically what you're saying is... get a load of tins for the Ulster v Clermont game?

totallegend

DeDoc wrote: »

In summary you're looking at 4 results (most more likely than unlikely, but still) to go against Ulster (assuming they can get a bonus).
If I was taking a wild guess, I'd the probabilities would be something like:
Cardiff win: 95%
Quins win with a bonus point: 10%
Toulouse win in Gloucester: 75%
Embra win against Irish: 60%
Probability of all 4: 4-5%

So if Ulster can get a LBP, they'd be pretty unlucky not to go through IMO.

An interesting way of looking at it. It all hinges on a losing BP in Clermont, what are the odds on that? If Ulster play like they did on Friday, it's a real possibility, hopefully Clermont won't be in the sort of form they were in today...

Cardiff and Edinburgh will know exactly what they have to do by the time their games come around on Sunday so that counts in their favour. Toulouse and Quins play Friday night.

Of course, a Biarritz win tomorrow changes everything, but I can't see it happening.

cgpg5

Gloucester, Irish, Metro or Connacht, who do ye have the most faith in to cause an upset next week? Come on the men from the Wesht!

durkadurka

Ok what are ulsters chances in the reasonably likely event that they don't get a lbp?

maddness

I thought Ulster were deadly last night.
Munster were awfull again today but 5 from 5.....
Hope Leinster do it again tomorrow.
Poor Connacht.
Good weekend though.:D

durkadurka

Interesting that the Cardiff embra group is last out on sunday. It'll be an epic weekend of permutations right up to the end.

leonard7

the heineken cup is truly impossible to call...i wouldve laughed if someone had told me edinburgh are in with a chance of qualifying so i wont begrudge them a quarter final spot but i still think london irish can do a job...i'm a fan of their 10 Homer

DeDoc

cgpg5 wrote: »

That is incredibly optimistic I feel that there is a far greater chance than 10% that Quins will get a BP in the sportsground next week..

I can't agree. Connacht have conceded one BP in this group - to Toulouse, and that was today. Toulouse barely got it too.

Quins have 3 BPs all season, 2 in September against Gloucester and Sale, and one in November against Newcastle. All at home.
Also Connacht haven't conceded a BP at home in a long time. This season they've only conceded more than 20 points at home twice - Toulouse and Cardiff.
If anything, I'd say it is less than 10%.

On the other hand, the fact that the Embra-Irish game takes place on Sunday and Embra know what they need probably shades that one higher. I'd still say it is well less than 10% chance overall of all 4 results going against Connacht.

DeDoc

durkadurka wrote: »

Ok what are ulsters chances in the reasonably likely event that they don't get a lbp?

Not great - they'd need some unlikely results - Toulouse, Embra or Quins losing

bleg

Well done to Munster. Everybody had written them off but they're the first team qualified after 5 games

3 Irish teams topping their groups and Michael Bradley's Edinburgh topping their group. Fair play to all involved.

CIARAN_BOYLE

DeDoc wrote: »

Not great - they'd need some unlikely results - Toulouse, Embra or Quins losing

or Cardiff

cgpg5

Its strange over the course of the group stages I feel that Ulster are actually more deserving of a place over Munster in the QF yet Munster have already qualified and Ulster are quite likely to miss out. (Nothing against Munster by the way this is my opinion!)

Would just like to say though what a tournament the HC is, I mean look at the soccer equivalent the Champions league where the group stages are a joke, the way the HC groups are set out it means that teams are playing for something right till the end and it always guarantees massive excitement. Teams aren't content alone with topping groups anymore they want to be the best group winner and so on. The bonus points even make it more exciting.

cgpg5

DeDoc wrote: »

I can't agree. Connacht have conceded one BP in this group - to Toulouse, and that was today. Toulouse barely got it too.

Quins have 3 BPs all season, 2 in September against Gloucester and Sale, and one in November against Newcastle. All at home.
Also Connacht haven't conceded a BP at home in a long time. This season they've only conceded more than 20 points at home twice - Toulouse and Cardiff.
If anything, I'd say it is less than 10%.

On the other hand, the fact that the Embra-Irish game takes place on Sunday and Embra know what they need probably shades that one higher. I'd still say it is well less than 10% chance overall of all 4 results going against Connacht.

I see where you're coming from, but I'd be wary of Quins. Toulouse made their tries today look very easy and I'd fear that Quins (if they get going) could open up the Connacht defence in a similar way. I'm not saying that Quins will get the bonus I just feel (and this is my opinion) that there is a higher chance than 10% that they'll get the bonus. Put it this way I would be in no way shocked if they got it.

bleg

cgpg5 wrote: »

Its strange over the course of the group stages I feel that Ulster are actually more deserving of a place over Munster in the QF yet Munster have already qualified and Ulster are quite likely to miss out. (Nothing against Munster by the way this is my opinion!)

I dunno, if you look at all the front liners that Munster are missing and the way they've had the sheer bloody minded will to win each match I think they're more than deserving to go through to the quarter finals.

cgpg5

bleg wrote: »

I dunno, if you look at all the front liners that Munster are missing and the way they've had the sheer bloody minded will to win each match I think they're more than deserving to go through to the quarter finals.

And fair play to them, but I think they've rode their luck to a major extent I just think Ulster have been more impressive against superior opposition.

I'm happy for Munster though, as I didn't see them qualifying, they could get a nice draw against Edinburgh perhaps and that would be a semi final place surely!

cgpg5

Granted its not finalised yet but I don't think hardly anyone would have predicted 2 coming out of Edinburgh and Cardiff's group at the beginning. Saying that not many would have seen Edinburgh coming anywhere except bottom. Such a great competition which always throws up good surprises

bleg

cgpg5 wrote: »

And fair play to them, but I think they've rode their luck to a major extent I just think Ulster have been more impressive against superior opposition.

Grand to say in hindsight but at the start of the season everybody saw the Pool 1 and said it was a really really tough one to get out of, not many gave Munster a chance. To be fair I don't think the opposition is that superior, it's just that Munster have pulled victories from nowhere. Now I could say that Clermont are shakey away from home and that Leicester are a spent force but that's too dismissive of the Ulster performances. To be honest If Munster had gotten Ulster's draw I think Munster would still win that group.

bleg

cgpg5 wrote: »

Granted its not finalised yet but I don't think hardly anyone would have predicted 2 coming out of Edinburgh and Cardiff's group at the beginning. Saying that not many would have seen Edinburgh coming anywhere except bottom. Such a great competition which always throws up good surprises

HC is my favourite rugby competition. I prefer it to 6 Nations and the World Cup. It's so much more unpredictable and dramatic.

cgpg5

bleg wrote: »

Grand to say in hindsight but at the start of the season everybody saw the Pool 1 and said it was a really really tough one to get out of, not many gave Munster a chance. To be fair I don't think the opposition is that superior, it's just that Munster have pulled victories from nowhere. Now I could say that Clermont are shakey away from home and that Leicester are a spent force but that's too dismissive of the Ulster performances. To be honest If Munster had gotten Ulster's draw I think Munster would still win that group.

Good point as I say I didn't see Munster coming out of that one originally, but they only had one major opposition really as opposed to Ulster's two. Would Munster have topped Ulster's group? I don't think they would have, but then again perhaps if you put Ulster in instead of Munster in pool A then Ulster might have come up short (the opposition mightn't have suited them).

On another note though I can't help going back to Toulouse messing up at home to Quins, a result which could ultimately cost Ulster. How on earth did Toulouse manage to lose that?

thomond2006

Saracens absolutely mangled Biarritz in that first scrum.

Saracens:
15 Alex Goode, 14 David Strettle, 13 Owen Farrell, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 Chris Wyles, 10 Charlie Hodgson, 9 Ben Spencer,
8 Ernst Joubert, 7 Andy Saull, 6 Kelly Brown, 5 Mouritz Botha, 4 Steve Borthwick, 3 Carlos Nieto, 2 John Smit, 1 Rhys Gill.
Replacements: 16 Jamie George, 17 Petrus du Plessis, 18 Matt Stevens, 19 George Kruis, 20 Jackson Wray, 21 Peter Stringer, 22 Adam Powell, 23 James Short

Biarritz Olympique:
15 Iain Balshaw, 14 Taku Ngwenya, 13 Charles Gimenez, 12 Damien Traille, 11 Ilikena Bolakoro, 10 Marcelo Bosch, 9 Dimitri Yachvili,
8 Florian Faure, 7 Benoit Guyot, 6 Wenceslas Lauret, 5 Pelu Taele, 4 Jérôme Thion, 3 Francisco Gomez Kodela, 2 Romain Terrain, 1 Fabien Barcella.
Replacements: 16 Arnaud Heguy, 17 Sylvain Marconnet, 18 Eusebio Guinazu, 19 Manuel Carizza, 20 Jean-Baptiste Roidot, 21 Julien Peyrelongue, 22 Benoît Baby, 23 Dane Haylett-Petty.

thomond2006

0-3 Yachvili penalty.

thomond2006

Try Saracens for Ben Spencer, not converted. 8-6 to Saracens.

cgpg5

I presume England will similarly select Farrell, Barrett and Hodgson at 13,12,10?

jacothelad

cgpg5 wrote: »

I presume England will similarly select Farrell, Barrett and Hodgson at 13,12,10?

Hopefully.

cgpg5

14-6 to Sarries approaching half time, 3 Farrell penalties. Likely he'll also be England's kicker in 6n.

Sarries a dark horse maybe?

thomond2006

Hodgson is an excellent distributor, fair play to him for taking the risk by moving to Saracens from Sale. It's a shame he's been a bottler in many big games of his career, he's a very good 10 on his day.

durkadurka

I'd say they're semi final naterial anyhow

irishbucsfan

Saracens will have a home QF against Cardiff/Edinburgh imo (more probably Cardiff). They should win that.

Toulouse will probably have a home QF against Clermont.

Munster will probably have a home QF against Edinburgh/Cardiff (more probably Edinburgh)

Leinster will then be left with the final qualifier, Ulster/Harlequins depending on whether Ulster get within 5 points against Clermont or failing that get the losing bonus against Clermont or failing that whether Connacht can beat Quins. Quins getting a try bonus point against Connacht would mean a definite Leinster/Quins QF.

All assuming Munster beat Northampton. Correct me if I'm wrong.


(If Ulster somehow manage to beat Clermont and Munster beat Northampton, it'll be the three Irish sides as the top 3 seeds!)

.ak

That DG looked good to me.

.ak

Strings on for Spencer.

thomond2006

G'wan Strings, ligind!

thomond2006

thomond2006 wrote: »

G'wan Strings, ligind!

Or not!

irishbucsfan

Jesus Stringer that was bad.

.ak

Ugh... Feel bad for Stringer now. Terrible kick, too horizontal.

thomond2006

Game on now!

irishbucsfan

If Ulster go out because of bloody predictable Peter Stringer I'll go mad!

iwasonbwh

Mon Biarritz