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Gearing up for record breaking warmth from the 11th Nov ---->
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It's the fact it was covered in cloud no1 that restricted temperatures. (so was the continent so temperatures could not have risen much there in the first place and besides the origin of the air is compatible with the faux cold developing there this time of year) No2 air from the Southeast of the continent is of the faux cold variety this time of year. i.e surface is cool. It's not the same as the projected flow by the end of the week at all. The wind then will be travelling over the southern med and the bay of biscay. Completely different scenario. The air will be moist and inherently warm at all levels. It won't have the dryness of the artic originated airflow modified in the East Med. Chalk and cheese.
Yes, that's the point I was making. It's not enough for someone to see warm T850s and go "Wow, we're in for a roasting". It's the boundary layer that's the key, and that's dictated by its origin and modification.P.S you say T850's are not a warm airmass? It is a very warm airmass for Ireland even in the height of summer.
However, T850 is NOT always an indication of a warm airmass, as you say, even in summer. The definition of an airmass is "A huge volume of air covering thousands of square kilometers that is relatively uniform in temperature and water vapor concentration." A subsidence inversion, such as we have now, warms and dries only a small layer of the atmosphere, but the majority of it above and below that can still be cold, and even below zero in some cases. That's a cold airmass.
Forecast soundings for Dublin and Athlone at 12Z and 15Z, respectively, on the 14th show a relatively cool, cloudy isothermal boundary beneath an inversion, with only some slight warming at Atlone by 15Z, around 12 °C at the surface (which we can round up to say 15 °C, allowing for a slight low surface temp bias for the GFS). A similar setup to that over England and the near continent yesterday.
Dublin
Athlone
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Is that a blocking high developing?
Sorry that chart has actually change. That is not very good anymore. We need the high pressure over Europe to disappear, preferably get hoovered up North.
The ECM is the pick of them tonight. Good Northern blocking here. The cold air coming through Scandinavia. Much better profile then the rest of the models with the exception of the JMA model.
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The-Rigger wrote: »Bought my sombrero today.
Looks like I should have done the same. I dug out my heavy jacket when we had a cold snap and by default have been wearing it during the unexpected heatwave. But given Irish weather once I took out the hoody it started to get cold again...0 -
The-Rigger wrote: »Bought my sombrero today.
Will be a sombrero moment when it gets soaked in the rain.0 -
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this November could be the reverse of last year.
Extreme mildness.
Even record breaking.
Think the mean by the end of the month will be nudging real high values.
Though a slight shift here and there in a low could still drag down cold near the end.
Hell one or two of the upcoming days might even be described as being...... warm :eek: November warmth, love it! Will probably pay a Dec/Jan hangover though for it
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Elmer Blooker wrote: »Very high temperatures for the time of year in Spain and S.W. France.
Heading our way?
Fairly typical temperatures if you ask me. Slightly above the norm in a few places, but they would get days like this most years.
I'm still saying we won't break 19.0 tomorrow. May not even make 18.0 °C, even though the Hirlam has +12 °C T850 temps over the southwest tomorrow afternoon.
GFS sounding for the midlands tomorrow afternoon shows a strong inversion at 900 hPa, with a well mixed boundary layer. Even with full insolation, surface temperatures may only reach around 17 °C at best, due to mixing out by the stiff southeasterly winds.
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