belgium blues and italy

1chippy

This may be a stupid question however, does anyone believe that with the mess of the euro and the state of Italy in particular is this going to have an adverse effect on blue weanlings being exported. as i said it may be stupid but cows are coming round and trying to get ahead a wee bit.

blue5000

Can't answer about the euro, maybe you could spread the risk a bit by putting some cows to a maternal sire to produce replacements. Was trying to do a bit of crystal ball gazing to try figure out what breed would be most in demand 4 yrs down the road. Sumtin that finishes easy off grass I was thinking, beef is going to be a luxury food if grain stays dear.

countygorey

looks bad ch aa or he if you want to spread risk and saftey

leg wax

i have been thinking along these lines myself, but its the blues that i have on hands now that are the worry,hold or sell now and fast,cows going in calf now are not the problem as i see it ,the mess in europe and italy will have to be sorted for 2013 weanlings ,they will still need food as well and there will always be farmers over there with money to buy no diferent than here, for me the super blues will still be wanted and will be sent to the feed lots that the exporters know that they will get paid.

Tora Bora

Really, it's not just the blues and Italy factor, even though Italy is the main market for the blue.
The real question is what will happen the Euro itself, and the beef market in general, if the Italy problem is not sorted.
The question ask myself, is should I now sell the 18 weamlings I have in the shed, as they are going well, and stick the cheque in the bank?

Maybe, we wake up one morning to have Merkel and Sarkozy, tell us they have just decided on a two track euro, and Paddy, is in division two.

Now the money from the weanlings gets devalued in real terms by 40% overnight:mad:
Would I have been better off keeping them ????

It's not an issue of blue vs lim or char, it's and issue of what a kg of each will be worth, in what currency?? That's the real question in my mind.

Now I am off to put the finishing touches to my bunker:cool:

Muckit

It looks like Italy and turkey are ready to go down the pan. But just think we are up sh*ts creek too economy wise and cattle prices were never as high, so I there doesn't appear to be a direct link.

And we're not so dependent on the italian market (Thank God) that it's going to effect Beef price here. Just my opinion. Reading Shirley busteed's reports in the journal, Limousine, simmental and charolais bulls were never as much in demand and commanding big money.

reilig

Tora Bora wrote: »

Maybe, we wake up one morning to have Merkel and Sarkozy, tell us they have just decided on a two track euro, and Paddy, is in division two.

Now the money from the weanlings gets devalued in real terms by 40% overnight:mad:
Would I have been better off keeping them ????

It's not an issue of blue vs lim or char, it's and issue of what a kg of each will be worth, in what currency?? That's the real question in my mind.

Would devalueing not be a good thing for us as farmers? Would it not help our exports? I know that our import costs like oil, fertilizer and grain would be higher, but the majority of farmers in this country are feeding cattle on grass.

If our Euro was devalued, we'd have more competitive prices against Euro1, the Dollar and GB£

blue5000

Muckit wrote: »

It looks like Italy and turkey? are ready to go down the pan. But just think we are up sh*ts creek too economy wise and cattle prices were never as high, so I there doesn't appear to be a direct link.

And we're not so dependent on the italian market (Thank God) that it's going to effect Beef price here. Just my opinion. Reading Shirley busteed's reports in the journal, Limousine, simmental and charolais bulls were never as much in demand and commanding big money.

Sure turkey isn't even in euro zone yet? Are you thinking about christmas already or what?

blue5000

reilig wrote: »

Would devalueing not be a good thing for us as farmers? Would it not help our exports? I know that our import costs like oil, fertilizer and grain would be higher, but the majority of farmers in this country are feeding cattle on grass.

If our Euro was devalued, we'd have more competitive prices against Euro1, the Dollar and GB£

Yeah devalueing would boost exports and it is what normally happens to help pull a country out of recession, but it will make our loan repayments harder as a country, lower interest rates would help too:(.

Muckit

blue5000 wrote: »

Sure turkey isn't even in euro zone yet? Are you thinking about christmas already or what?

Your right, it's the Lira, or at least it was when I was over in kusadasi in 08 :cool: But we still export beef to them.

http://www.google.ie/url?q=http://archive.merrionstreet.ie/index.php/2011/01/agreement-reached-for-irish-beef-exports-to-turkey/&sa=U&ei=Iku9TsvrKcHPhAfVqrzJBA&ved=0CBUQFjAB&sig2=KwZO95USIjsNN5G8nB9utA&usg=AFQjCNGDTTTS7wImpU38LfVOVnDu0Z_-3Q

Tora Bora

reilig wrote: »

Would devalueing not be a good thing for us as farmers? Would it not help our exports? I know that our import costs like oil, fertilizer and grain would be higher, but the majority of farmers in this country are feeding cattle on grass.

If our Euro was devalued, we'd have more competitive prices against Euro1, the Dollar and GB£

Yeah, in the long term, devaluation would help our exports.
Remember however, if you have cash in the bank, when one fine morning you turn on the TV, and are told, there is effective midnight the previous night, two euros. Hard euro, where Germany, France, Austria, netherlands, and a few more reside. And a soft euro, for ourselves and the rest of the busted club, then you are snookered.
Your cash in bank, will have devalued by 30% overnight.
Now however, if you had 10 nice charlies, or limmies, outside in the shed, the would hopefully not devalued anywhere near as much.

So I am just thinking to myself, this week, with all this talk of a two tier euro, etc, I'd rather a few limmies, than a few grand in cash!!

Tipp Man

reilig wrote: »

Would devalueing not be a good thing for us as farmers? Would it not help our exports? I know that our import costs like oil, fertilizer and grain would be higher, but the majority of farmers in this country are feeding cattle on grass.

If our Euro was devalued, we'd have more competitive prices against Euro1, the Dollar and GB£

Assuming the EU doesn't break up completly then the SFP should continue to be paid in EUR which would put farmers at a relative advantage compared to others in the economy.