Turkish contingency plans for no-fly zones & military intervention in Syria

maquiladora

This could get messy. Turkey and Syria in direct confrontation? What would happen with the Syria-Lebanon-Hezbollah relationship if Assad falls? Syria & Iran have a defence cooperation pact...

(Reuters) - Turkish newspapers said on Saturday Ankara had contingency plans to create no-fly or buffer zones to protect civilians in neighboring Syria from security forces there if the bloodshed worsens.

Turkey opposes unilateral steps or intervention aimed at "regime change" in Syria, the reports said, but it has not ruled out the possibility of more extensive military action if security forces began committing large-scale massacres.

The reports, based on a briefing by Turkish officials to selected journalists, came on the day of an Arab League deadline for President Bashar al-Assad's government to end its repression of anti-government unrest and comply with a peace plan.

...

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/19/us-turkey-syria-idUSTRE7AI0WM20111119

Avgas

Not exactly a response to your thread but has anyone else noticed how the situation in Syria has just gone even more terminal in the last 24hrs?

The mouthing off of the French about a humanitarian intervention of some sort is very dangerous given how Syria have historically used Hezbollah in the Leb to send messages to the wider west about the value of non-interference?

Combine that with Turkish forces massing on the border and fairly open Turkish support for the anti-Assad elements and we have the makings or a desperate regime who may gamble on ramping things up.........

See: http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/france-calls-for-secured-humanitarian-intervention-in-syria-1.397436

OS119

its certainly not going to end well, its too far gone - there can be no compromise or fudged peace deal now.

i can't - unless the rebels get defeated very soon - see how there won't be foreign intervention in the medium term future. Turkey and others, but mainly Turkey, have said too much to back off, and the French would happily support them. Syria has no other friends but Iran, and Iran has too much on its plate to worry about Assad - so, like Libya its an open goal.

welcome back Avgas, nice to see you about the place.

Jaafa

OS119 wrote: »

its certainly not going to end well, its too far gone - there can be no compromise or fudged peace deal now.

i can't - unless the rebels get defeated very soon - see how there won't be foreign intervention in the medium term future. Turkey and others, but mainly Turkey, have said too much to back off, and the French would happily support them. Syria has no other friends but Iran, and Iran has too much on its plate to worry about Assad - so, like Libya its an open goal.

welcome back Avgas, nice to see you about the place.

There will be no intervention in Syria. The only effective means of intervention would be a ground invasion, seeing as most the killings are being caused by ground combat. Syria has been/is effectively in a civil war, but unlike libya intervention would mean a number of things.

1.It would cause the whole Mid-east to turn into one massive Sh!tstorm.
2. Assad still has huge support (probably more than Gaddafi had and that was pretty big).
3.The Syria army is more capable than the Libyan one was, it could mean big losses even if it was only a no fly-zone (Syria has S-300s)
4. The Russians and Chinese are would be seriously annoyed, I wouldn't be surprised if they secretly armed Syria in any future conflict.
5. Israel would probably see this as it's chance to attack either Hamas, Hezbollah or Iran.

Any one of these is bad enough for Turkey never mind all of them combined.

Avgas

Hi OS119...I see Jaffa got in before me ...I'd agree some with him[her?].......I think your being a bit overly optimistic about Syria being ‘wide open’ or ripe for the taking...its a mistake to read it the same way as Libya.....the geography is different.....the region is different.........I think Iran actually has powerful incentives now to see Syria as the first front/battle in an impending war against themselves........they may as well chip in to try and support the Assad regime now because its all or nothing ........and my thinking was given Hezbollah-Iran relationships the idea of ‘distracting actions’ in the Leb could become a powerful draw......

If the Turks do a land invasion styled as a ‘safe area’, I think the Syria military would find it hard to do much..it may or may not topple Assad.......I’m happy to be corrected on that assumption as my info on the state of morale and readiness of Syria military is limited...the assumption is however, they're serious war fighting capabilities have been eroded over the last years...BUT....the situation could then turn into a nasty protracted insurgency......and one could imagine that sooner rather than later Hezbollah elements might get caught up in that...and they would be a totally different proposition than what Qaddafi was working with..(.a few of the merc outfits excepted perhaps). It would be a much more intense and unpredictable conflict than what we saw roll out in Libya.

Its noteworthy that the Russians have signaled a much more hostile tone as well-whereas in Libya they were prepared to let it happen (and now regret it because their frozen out on the post-war deals). That means you can kiss goodbye to anything like Resolution 1973.

By the way, a Turkish intervention in Syria could well backfire badly for their own government if its inconclusive...viz elements of the ‘deep state’ military that dislike Erdogan and his Islamists....who would be waiting in the wings to take advantage........so the whole picture has become a much higher stakes game......


PS. I don't think the S300 would be as big a problem as one might think from a SEAD perspective...US has been spending a decade and more gaming and tinkering re S300/400 series and probably have interesting ideas about how to crack that nut..... BUT it would mean you'd need USAF involvement in a major way........and the question then becomes political....would that 'leadership role' be agreed-with Presidential elections pending....?

maquiladora

Turkey 'ready for action' as Syria deadline expires

Turkey said it could tolerate no more bloodshed in Syria and it was ready to take action with Arab powers if President Bashar al-Assad failed to take steps towards ending the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators.

An 11:00 a.m. GMT deadline given by the Arab League to Syria to agree to accept observers or face sanctions has expired today.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/n.php?n=syria-turkey--update-1--1125-08-2011-11-25

Israeli security forces: Turkey nearing military intervention in Syria

Israeli security forces officials said Wednesday that they believe Turkey is nearing a military intervention in Syria, in order to create a secure buffer zone for opposition activists.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/israeli-security-forces-turkey-nearing-military-intervention-in-syria-1.397335

Syria: 'Foreign-backed' attack kills 10 air force personnel

The Syrian military said on Friday that 10 air force personnel, including six pilots, were killed in an attack on a base and said the action proved foreign involvement in the eight-month revolt against President Bashar Assad's rule.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/syria-foreign-backed-attack-kills-10-air-force-personnel-1.397730

Jaafa

Nuclear aircraft carrier USS George HW Bush has reportedly anchored off Syria. As an Arab League deadline to allow observers into the country passes with no response from Damascus, the possibility of intervention in Syria seems to be growing.

http://rt.com/news/syria-intervention-us-warship-229/

OS119

Avgas wrote: »

...I don't think the S300 would be as big a problem as one might think from a SEAD perspective...US has been spending a decade and more gaming and tinkering re S300/400 series and probably have interesting ideas about how to crack that nut..... BUT it would mean you'd need USAF involvement in a major way...

not neccessarily - 3 NATO members have the systems (and the US has been busy filling the coffers of a number of Central Asian and Caucuses banana republics to relieve them of the heavy cost of these systems) - the Greeks having pretty late model versions of the system, and a number of non-US NATO members have conducted SEAD exercises against them, and i imagine that the chances that most of NATO hasn't crawled all over them is pretty slim.

i have yet to see a single example of a SAM that did 50% of what its manufacturer said it would do, and i can't see that a SAM that has been taken apart and exercised against for years is going break that record - and SEAD is a capability that a number of european NATO forces specialise in, certainly the French, Brits, Dutch and Germans could, imv, handle an S-300/400 based AD system. US involvement would be nice, but it wouldn't be mission critical.

maquiladora

'Syria turns missiles towards Turkey'

Turkish sources say that Syria has turned its Russian-made SCUD missiles towards Turkey, Press TV reports.


The sources said that the missiles have been deployed in Syria's Kamisili and Ayn Diwar regions, Press TV's Ankara correspondent reported on Saturday.

The two regions are close to the borders of Turkey and Iraq.

This comes as Turkey has recently stepped up its rhetoric against the Syrian government. Reports have also emerged suggesting that Turkey is harboring Syrian armed opposition groups.

http://www.presstv.ir/detail/212313.html

Avgas

OS119 wrote: »

not neccessarily.....i have yet to see a single example of a SAM that did 50% of what its manufacturer said it would do, and i can't see that a SAM that has been taken apart and exercised against for years is going break that record - and SEAD is a capability that a number of european NATO forces specialise in, certainly the French, Brits, Dutch and Germans could, imv, handle an S-300/400 based AD system. US involvement would be nice, but it wouldn't be mission critical.

Perhaps your correct OS119 and I’m being unfair to French Air Force, RAF, etc SEAD capabilities...they may well have done more homework on this particular threat that I’m in a position to know....

I might add that the Israeli’s would be presumably ready and willing to pass on a lot of data and advice to NATO if the latter was so kind as to remove them from the face of the earth.......and their intel and SEAD concept of operations may well be much more valuable.....one must assume the Assad regime is weakened and now leaking info like a sieve....as some of the officer corps/intel community seek to defect/keep their options open..... .to whoever wants it...so precise targeting of high value assets might be easier....

However, the lesson learned in Libya was that US airpower-especially tankers were vital to sustain the Franco-British lead...and the US still played a not trivial role.....at that in terms of the hard end....
From David Cenciotti’s blog:

“Odyssey Dawn represented just a series of independent national missions: the US, French, British and Italian contingents were not fully integrated, to such an extent that each one had to have its own tankers.....(and later)...U.S. whose support to Unified Protector was vital: without American tankers, there would not be any NATO air campaign. Predators and Global Hawks (often recalled by Washington-centric media) were important as well as some special ops assets (spyplanes, PSYOPS, EW) the actual added value of the American contribution to Unified Protector was the air-to-air refueling capability. Other partner nations contributed with some tankers (Italy, France, UK, Sweden and Canada): not the amount needed by this kind of air campaign.”
http://theaviationist.com/2011/10/26/libya-final-report/

My point: SEAD packages by the French and Brits would need quite a bit of USAF logistical support even if the ‘kinetic’ part of the business was Frenchy......now correct me if I’m wrong on that......maybe they could use Turkish bases?

If a ‘land based’ intervention via Turkey emerges then of course in a few cases land based special forces may neutralize such targets as well.....
Nonetheless some sources rate the S300/400 gear highly:
“The B-2A and F-22A were both developed with these threat systems (ie. S300/400) in mind, and are still considered to be the only US systems capable of robustly defeating these weapons. The technique for defeating them is a combination of wideband all aspect stealth and highly sensitive radio-frequency ESM receivers, combined with offboard sources of near-realtime Intelligence Surveillance Reconaissance (ISR) data on system locations.”
http://www.ausairpower.net/APA-Grumble-Gargoyle.html

It goes without saying that some of these SEAD assets are exclusively USAF....

So I stand by my assertion that to have a good chance of military success any intervention in Syria would need some level of US military backup...nobody is suggesting the Turkish, French or British are not capable.....but to be sure of things.....I think some level of support at least at the scale of Libya would be required.....
.
Politically, there are sensible reasons why the US may NOT want to get too involved...Obama has to get re-elected, America is broke and now everyone knows it, and Russia has much stronger ties with and in Syria and may well decide to draw a line........

BTW your correct that many SAM fail to meet salesmen’s blurb... think Rapier or Bloodhound [I meant Blowpipe...I'm not that old!!!!] in the Falklands for example....:rolleyes:. (okay that’s a bit a cheeky coming from someone of the great nation that fielded the L60 40mm.....).....but the main point in effective SAM use is that its mostly down to tactics and organization.....the ability to innovate, ambush, improvise...layering of systems in unpredictable ways......

if Serbian “consultants” have been training the Syrians in recent years I might be worried. (have they...anyone know?)....in any event there are Russian “consultants” who have watched and learned about SAMs......over the last few years....one can imagine some of these people being hired to advise and train....perhaps a fraction of the paper assets used cleverly.......

Its how you use SAMs that matter....the actual paper specification and capabilities are a different thing......the Serbs used a modified 1960s era SA125 Neva to shoot down a F-117 (perhaps with some intel help). So the converse of your jibe is beware crappy, simple and obsolete SAMs used by savvy adversaries.

The description has rarely fitted the Syrians in the past. But there’s always a first time (hopefully not!)

OS119

Avgas wrote: »

...maybe they could use Turkish bases?...

its possible - Turkey is going to be the 'lead dog' in this fight, should it happen, but the crabs have got RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus, and the hotels are good there...

personally i don't see this as going the same way as Libya (because of the widespread nature of SAM network and random AAA all over the place) - if it happens it'll be a decapitation exercise rather than a close air support job, while parking fighters away from the SAM network looking for Syrian fighters to lop off.

mounting a 'cab rank' style CAS/interdiction effort over Syria without heavy US support would be impossible, but non-US NATO+ air strikes into Syria certainly wouldn't - basing in Turkey, Cyprus and perhaps KSA would significantly reduce the Tanking requirements that we saw over Libya.

not easy, and not without risk, but low-level deep penetration is still a very big part of the European countries military capability - they will all happily join a big, all-sing, all-dancing US lead, multi-faceted strike package if theres one going, but deep strike is their bread and butter, and all the usual suspects could pull off such strikes.

Fratton Fred

There's plenty of pressure on Iran at the moment. Maybe the two are linked.

Jaafa

Fratton Fred wrote: »

There's plenty of pressure on Iran at the moment. Maybe the two are linked.

absolutely. If Syria wasn't such a key ally to Iran the Arab states wouldn't be pressing so hard. If Syria falls, Iran will be greatly weakened and that's exactly why the gulf states are taking the lead in this.

Avgas

OS119 wrote: »

its possible - Turkey is going to be the 'lead dog' in this fight, should it happen, but the crabs have got RAF Akrotiri on Cyprus, and the hotels are good there...

personally i don't see this as going the same way as Libya (because of the widespread nature of SAM network and random AAA all over the place) - if it happens it'll be a decapitation exercise rather than a close air support job, while parking fighters away from the SAM network looking for Syrian fighters to lop off.

mounting a 'cab rank' style CAS/interdiction effort over Syria without heavy US support would be impossible, but non-US NATO+ air strikes into Syria certainly wouldn't - basing in Turkey, Cyprus and perhaps KSA would significantly reduce the Tanking requirements that we saw over Libya.

not easy, and not without risk, but low-level deep penetration is still a very big part of the European countries military capability - they will all happily join a big, all-sing, all-dancing US lead, multi-faceted strike package if theres one going, but deep strike is their bread and butter, and all the usual suspects could pull off such strikes.

The use of Cyrpus by RAF Tornados from Akrotiri would be an interesting development. However, there are many mysterious Russian-Greek Cypriot relationships and I would wonder about what sort of Russian plane spotting ‘presence’ might be already available in Limassol....which might pass on some critical information.....:rolleyes:

Equally the idea that a low-low-low strike by Tornados to “take out” Assad would resolve the situation is not entirely plausible.. what legal mandate would that be based on I wonder? Even, assuming the targeting worked......the Druze and Alawite ethnic minorities will not just disappear overnight and they will fight to keep a wider regime in place that they feel is their only guarantee of survival.....its not just about Assad.

Cork boy 55

No one in the media appears(AFAIK) has mentioned Syrias extensive chemical arsenal and it's delivery system(SSM and rockets(scuds et all))

Is it possible in a last throw of the dice Assad or a rouge element of the Assad regime might target Israel?
The idea being that Israel counter-strike would rally population behind assad.
Assad has already talked about an "earthquake" if he goes.
Worst case scearnio.

OS119

i don't think that there'd be any need for spying, Syrian AD radars could watch anything leave Akrotiri anyway - the eastern end of the Med is a pretty small place.

obviously the problem is not just Assad, by 'decapitiation' i mean the regime, and the C3 network that it depends on to implement its will - in addition, Syrian military units that are working hard not to get whacked in an airstrike are going to put their other activities very much on the back burner, which then leaves more room for either a coup d' etat, or this 'Syrian Free Army' (whoever, whatever, and however real it may be) to keep the loyal units busy.

its not perfect, its by no mean guaranteed - but its a relatively cheap way of throwing a wrench in the wheels of someone we don't like very much.

maquiladora

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

No one in the media appears(AFAIK) has mentioned Syrias extensive chemical arsenal and it's delivery system(SSM and rockets(scuds et all))

Is it possible in a last throw of the dice Assad or a rouge element of the Assad regime might target Israel?
The idea being that Israel counter-strike would rally population behind assad.
Assad has already talked about an "earthquake" if he goes.
Worst case scearnio.

That would really be suicide. A chemical attack on Israel would bring about a massive Israeli counteroffensive, maybe even nuclear depending on how many lives would be lost.

Avgas

The Syrian AD radars would I assume be jammed, jarked or otherwise diminished prior to any NATO strike.....NATO are professional about these things......hence informal Syrian AD networks would have to emerge and would perhaps pose a greater threat over time. My point was that unfortunately they would have more technical help with that perhaps than in Libya.

Rather than firing Scuds at Israel, the more obvious target would be Turkey and yes...perhaps even Akrotiri...(although the risks of missing would be larger as the Scuds are still not that accurate.....but even then the political backlash against the base by Cypriots may be desirable for Assad?).......perhaps the risk of just a few fired would deter NATO and Turkey somewhat....and if moves are actually made, then firing a few would internationalize the conflict which may be enough to force some sort of negotiations.....my guess is that these would be conventional..not chemical......warheads. Assad and his regime may be nasty but they are not entirely stupid. That would give NATO they mandate they need to finish the job.

AFAIK The Syrians do NOT have Russian Iskander missiles, despite apparently looking for them a few years back.

BTW there is (apparently) a Russian carrier and naval task force headed towards the area for what appear to be routine and scheduled exercises......http://www.barentsobserver.com/russia-sends-aircraft-carrier-to-lebanon-syria.4990892-116320.html and http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2067564/Syria-conflict-Russia-sends-warship-support-Assad.html
Hard to know what to make of all that, as the Admiral Kuznetsov was previously supposed to be scheduled for heavy duty dry dock work in 2012.......

Interesting.

Cork boy 55

The conflict has evolved rapidly in last few months with the SAA largely on the defensive bogged down everywhere lacking reserves to re-take ground and the FSA on the offensive and over running isolated garrison in the north one by one and cutting lines of supplies and key highways isolating other garrison.
The regime relies on its air power both to resupply and defend isolated garrison a no-fly zone now would be a castrophe for the regime.

The rebels appear to have armed themselves largely with weapons like RPG 75mm SPG-9 recoiless rifles, type 63 rockets, mortars, homemade rockets and for air defense HMG and 23 mm cannon
Also increasing rebel Armour and heavy artillery is making an appearance.

This image is from the ISW shows what the situation was in the north in September rebels have made more gains since then

Cork boy 55

First recording Tank on Tank battle in Syrian civil war
It looks like a regime T-72 is watching an alley-way when A FSA T-62 pops up behind it and destroys it at point blank range.

Geekness1234

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

No one in the media appears(AFAIK) has mentioned Syrias extensive chemical arsenal and it's delivery system(SSM and rockets(scuds et all))

Is it possible in a last throw of the dice Assad or a rouge element of the Assad regime might target Israel?
The idea being that Israel counter-strike would rally population behind assad.
Assad has already talked about an "earthquake" if he goes.
Worst case scearnio.

Assad's chemical arsenal was given good coverage by CNN,when they aired a piece on the alarming amounts of gas masks in circulation.
I personally believe that's just soldiers airing on the side of caution.

Geekness1234

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

First recording Tank on Tank battle in Syrian civil war
It looks like a regime T-72 is watching an alley-way when A FSA T-62 pops up behind it and destroys it at point blank range.

The "warmongering" side of me kinda wants to see Turkish Leopard IIs take on T-series Syrian army tanks.

Cork boy 55

The S.A.A. air defense network has been severely downgraded by the conflict
both in terms of personnel (dead, defected, deserted, wounded, transferred to infantry duties) and in terms of equipment lost and air defence bases overrun

This is footage from last month of a SAM missile regiment air defense base overrun, a ton of kit lying about


I think the unit is this video is some kind of jihad unit
although only a minority of the rebel army the jihadists units are their most effective fighters by many reports
Syria Rebels Grab Missiles As Regime Air Defense Base Captured 7 Oct 12 Alnashabiah

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN0_-Fhkt58

various videos reports of other sites around country which have been overrun or abandoned

Stovepipe

Syria has a huge amount of anti-aircraft equipment, just like Iraq and Libya, especially lots of the basic ZU and KPV and Dshk weapons, as well as plentiful SA-7 and tons of RPG and other anti-tank and anti-air weapons. It wouldn't be a pushover. Enough people still support the Assads and who knows what the many local factions would do.
regards
Stovepipe

Cork boy 55

This video appeared on the Insurgent youtube propaganda channels
It claims to be In rural Damascus today
Large missiles on what appear to be some type of rail in a large building.
What type of missiles are these?

Jaafa

They look like long range sam's. Possibly S-200's http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-200_Angara/Vega/Dubna.

Cork boy 55

Another air defense base has been overrun by insurgents
this one close to the Capital.

Pictures and videos are emerging of the most modern MANPAD Syria has the Sa-24 (2004) in insurgent hands amongest older models.
http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_army_light_heavy_weapons_uk/sa-24_grinch_9k338_igla-s_portable_air_defense_missile_system_technical_data_sheet_specifications_uk.html

Jaafa

Cork boy 55 wrote: »

Another air defense base has been overrun by insurgents
this one close to the Capital.

Pictures and videos are emerging of the most modern MANPAD Syria has the Sa-24 (2004) in insurgent hands amongest older models.
http://www.armyrecognition.com/russia_russian_army_light_heavy_weapons_uk/sa-24_grinch_9k338_igla-s_portable_air_defense_missile_system_technical_data_sheet_specifications_uk.html

The state news agency denies the claims that air defense base was overrun, this was a few days ago, impossible to believe either side for sure tbh.

Those manpads could easily have been smuggled in from the outside,rather than taken from bases, though I'm sure that has occurred in some cases too. Indeed Russia claims it has evidence manpads from Libya as well as american made stingers have been brought into the country.

It's very hard to tell what the actual military situation on the ground is as the vast majority of info is coming solely from the Syrian observatory for human rights, practically every article I've read on Syria in recent months lists them as the only source. This is obviously not an ideal situation.

The big issue at the moment seems to me to be Ras Al Ayn. Press tv (yes yes we all know what their credentials are) posted a video a few days ago showing long lines of trucks at the border crossing at Ras Al Ayn, waiting for FSA members to take them across the border. Shortly there after the bombing of the town began.

The reasons for the FSA to capture the town and begin establishing supply lines could be numerous. Ras Al ayn is essentially in the Kurdish part of Syria. The Syrian government of course deferred security of the Kurdish region to the Kurds themselves, I assume on the basis the Kurds would not allow the FSA to set up bases there, and to free up more troops for elsewhere. It is possible the FSA had other plans, and wanted to set up another front there against the Kurds.

Alternatively the supplies might have been heading south towards Dayr Al-Zawr near the Iraqi board. From what I understand the FSA have been bogged down there by the Syrian army, and possibly needed some relief.

Third the supplies might have been heading west to Aleppo, again perhaps other supply lines north of Aleppo may have been cut, or severely hampered by Syrian Aircraft.

Again this is all speculation as I consider the vast majority of reports coming from the SOHR or SANA to be extremely biased.

Cork boy 55

Can anyone identify this "device" in photos

It was may or may not have been dropped from Air(helo)
and it may or may not have released some sort of unknown chemical agent.

see link for more details




http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/04/links-between-alleged-chemical-attacks.html

Jaafa

They look like the remnants of smoke canisters. Just google smoke canisters you'll see they look pretty similar, albeit these look more crudely made.