Bank of Ireland shares

beaner92

beaner92 wrote: »

In fact I will see tomorrow if I can get put options with a 6 strike and August 19 expiry. Such an illiquid stock !

What a tasty trade. (Not taken! no options for this pile of kaka)

greenfield21

In fairness All EU banks are looking down

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1161222606743310336

Dinarius

Very interesting chart.

European central banks and ECB had about 7% of downside to play with 10/11 years ago.

They've used it all up.

With 27 very disparate economies trying to play by one set of rules, they haven't been able to budge on interest rates.

Banks are tanking here and faring much better in USA. USA interest rate policy is also faring better.

EU used to be a club of (relatively speaking) equals. Franco/German insistence on bringing in the old Eastern block has made balancing the books a lot more difficult. One of the many reasons Brexit has happened. (You also have to wonder if, given we are now one of the most indebted countries, per capita, in the OECD, if we would be allowed into the EU under its old rules? I somehow doubt it.)

This might give you a laugh...16 eternal optimists. That said, I hope they're right. But, the above chart seems to indicate otherwise.

D.

Jim2007

Dinarius wrote: »

With 27 very disparate economies trying to play by one set of rules, they haven't been able to budge on interest rates.

You mean as opposed to say 50 very disparate States of the Union, go spend some time in Alabama or Mississippi for example and get back to us.

Dinarius wrote: »

Banks are tanking here and faring much better in USA. USA interest rate policy is also faring better.

Spend sometime adjusting the accounting figures and in particular factoring in the unprovided for pension benefits in US banks and you'll find there is very little different, except for the recalculated T1s which make European banks a little less risky.

Dinarius

Are you seriously equating EU member states and US union states?

I give up.

D.

q85dw7osi4lebg

What's up with this?

I have broker apps etc but when I want to randomly check the price of BOI I'll Google it. Never had a problem.

Today when I Google it it's gone ?

I type in "bank of Ireland share price"

Odd.

drunkmonkey

The same, change it to another share and it's normal. A hostile take over?

coolshannagh28

Something is up , it traded as low as €3,09 ,closed at 3.20 according to FT . At what point does share price have a bearing on the future of the bank ?

cute geoge

Is there any media coverage at all about the collapse in the bank share price ,it is surely now hovering around the price when it was near high risk of going under back in 09/10 .That was all the main media headlines back in them days!!

Thargor

I thought someone said a while ago that fair value based on p/e and compared to other banks was about €3.00 and that was where it would probably go? Other banks dont have unique Irish problems or exposure to Brexit either.

Dinarius

I use the app Stock Tracker and I also use Degiro. No issue with price information at any time today.

Re zero coverage in media of recent price collapse: I still think that banks being big buyers of advertising counts for something.

BofI is a dog and should be at a discount to the sector. If it’s only hitting the sector p/e average about now, then how much discount is fair value

D.

sk8board

the charts show a very clear harmonic happening for both AIB and BOI.
If that harmonic is completed and sellers continue to push it down, everything is pointing to the next clear support level for BOI is €2.65 and £2.05 for AIB.
AIB is the worst positioned of both of them to hit those lows for a few reasons, not least because negative momentum indicators pushed through previous lows today, whereas BOI tested the negative momentum low and pulled back.

drunkmonkey

Evelyn Bourke bought around 20k of shares the other day, must think it's under valued.

sk8board

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Evelyn Bourke bought around 20k of shares the other day, must think it's under valued.

Depends on her horizon.
If its 5 years+, then probably yes, but I'd love to see her charts.
If its 5 weeks, then definitely not. the data clearly suggests even a temporary buying spell will be turned around again by the ratio of sellers to buyers today.

I don't trade AIB, but i include it and BOI in my charts for local curiosity. If it does follow the data and trade down to €2.10/20, the data suggests its at the point of being under-valued, based on its fundamentals, yes.

Jim2007

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Evelyn Bourke bought around 20k of shares the other day, must think it's under valued.

You have know idea what she thinks nor if she even bought them on her own account or for someone else. Best to ignore this kind of nonsense.

Keith1111

Do ye think price will drop more after brexit 31st October or buy just before then.
Or
Do you think it's good buy now ?

drunkmonkey

I think brexit will end up being kicked down the road yet. It's what politicans are brilliant at.
To be honest this stock shouldn't be on your radar for investing in right now. So much other potential out there.

cute geoge

drunkmonkey wrote: »

I think brexit will end up being kicked down the road yet. It's what politicans are brilliant at.
To be honest this stock shouldn't be on your radar for investing in right now. So much other potential out there.

Tell us more ???

Jim2007

drunkmonkey wrote: »

To be honest this stock shouldn't be on your radar for investing in right now. So much other potential out there.

If you are going to be honest then lets hear your analysis and I mean real analysis not repeating what the talking heads said or what Joe down the pub said. Otherwise it as useful as a chocolate teapot.

Dinarius

Every time this chart had dropped to the critical 80 level over the past 30 years, there has been Euro central bank intervention - quantitative easing, printing money, adding to the money debt pyre, call it what you will.

Note how, over the last 15 years or so, more interventions were required, and they have been progressively less successful. (ever decreasing peaks on the chart)

One of the reasons for yesterday’s bounce - apart from some short covering - was that word came out that intervention is expected again next month. So much so, that I heard one analyst say it may already be priced in.

Given that this policy has increased debt in Europe to scary levels, and that it puts any hope of interest rate increases further into the future; you have to wonder what happens when it no longer works, which could well be this time.

This highlights a fundamental difference between Europe and USA/China. Europe is a 27 speed economy, and the speeds are diverging from one another ever more. USA, China can adjust their essentially one speed economies as needs be.

Have to worry about the future of the European project.


D.

Dinarius

Chart!

JMMCapital

Surely the markets have already priced in brexit thus it wont affect BOI/AIB a whole pile we've known brexit was going to happen since well over 2 years now. they are still incredibly cheap if you look from a historic perspective. As Buffett says he doesn’t care how well the companies he’s invested in did last year — he’s more concerned with how they perform over decades.

Jim2007

JMMCapital wrote: »

Surely the markets have already priced in brexit thus it wont affect BOI/AIB a whole pile we've known brexit was going to happen since well over 2 years now. I'll be buying BOI shares monday with the view of holding them long term there are still incredibly cheap if you look from a historic perspective. As Buffett says he doesn’t care how well the companies he’s invested in did last year — he’s more concerned with how they perform over decades.

Had you looked at UBS back around say 2007, you’d have thought the same thing. Here was a bank who’s share price fell from the mid $80s down to the mid $50s. It had a T1 ratio 3 times that of BOI, a good history of excellent results and very experienced management. The Singapore Sovereign Fund thought it was cheap and spent some where around $12b (the exact amount has never been disclosed) on buying options at conversion rates of $52 - $57 on UBS shares from UBS. The ‘from UBS’ is important because they had a secret - off their books was approximately $50b of subprime loans destined for securitization, that was not going to happen.... The price never hit $55 again!

Moving on... 2009... 2010, the price is $15 - $17, all the bad news is out there, the bank has new management, it’s been restructured, 26,000 staff have been let go, it’s starting return great results again and all the talking heads and the technical analysis says it’s a buy....

And yet last week the price went below $10, you’d have lost a third of your investment in this sure thing. The problem with the talking heads, the technical analysis and most of the nonsense posted here is that it completely fails to factor in the actual business of the banks. In the short term the market is a voting machine and all TA and the talking heads do is provide an analysis of those votes.

The reality is that banking has become a commodity industry and the race to the bottom is on! A commodity industry is never a great place to invest because there will be very few winners. So high risk and low returns, there are better opportunities out there, time to move on from banks.

Islander13

Jim2007 wrote: »

Had you looked at UBS back around say 2007, you’d have thought the same thing. Here was a bank who’s share price fell from the mid $80s down to the mid $50s. It had a T1 ratio 3 times that of BOI, a good history of excellent results and very experienced management. The Singapore Sovereign Fund thought it was cheap and spent some where around $12b (the exact amount has never been disclosed) on buying options at conversion rates of $52 - $57 on UBS shares from UBS. The ‘from UBS’ is important because they had a secret - off their books was approximately $50b of subprime loans destined for securitization, that was not going to happen.... The price never hit $55 again!

Moving on... 2009... 2010, the price is $15 - $17, all the bad news is out there, the bank has new management, it’s been restructured, 26,000 staff have been let go, it’s starting return great results again and all the talking heads and the technical analysis says it’s a buy....

And yet last week the price went below $10, you’d have lost a third of your investment in this sure thing. The problem with the talking heads, the technical analysis and most of the nonsense posted here is that it completely fails to factor in the actual business of the banks. In the short term the market is a voting machine and all TA and the talking heads do is provide an analysis of those votes.

The reality is that banking has become a commodity industry and the race to the bottom is on! A commodity industry is never a great place to invest because there will be very few winners. So high risk and low returns, there are better opportunities out there, time to move on from banks.

Top post

Peter File

The Sunday Business Post and Irish Times both extensively covered the collapsing share prices of Irish Banks over the weekend.

Gatoh

JMMCapital

Jim2007 wrote: »

Had you looked at UBS back around say 2007, you’d have thought the same thing. Here was a bank who’s share price fell from the mid $80s down to the mid $50s. It had a T1 ratio 3 times that of BOI, a good history of excellent results and very experienced management. The Singapore Sovereign Fund thought it was cheap and spent some where around $12b (the exact amount has never been disclosed) on buying options at conversion rates of $52 - $57 on UBS shares from UBS. The ‘from UBS’ is important because they had a secret - off their books was approximately $50b of subprime loans destined for securitization, that was not going to happen.... The price never hit $55 again!

Moving on... 2009... 2010, the price is $15 - $17, all the bad news is out there, the bank has new management, it’s been restructured, 26,000 staff have been let go, it’s starting return great results again and all the talking heads and the technical analysis says it’s a buy....

And yet last week the price went below $10, you’d have lost a third of your investment in this sure thing. The problem with the talking heads, the technical analysis and most of the nonsense posted here is that it completely fails to factor in the actual business of the banks. In the short term the market is a voting machine and all TA and the talking heads do is provide an analysis of those votes.

The reality is that banking has become a commodity industry and the race to the bottom is on! A commodity industry is never a great place to invest because there will be very few winners. So high risk and low returns, there are better opportunities out there, time to move on from banks.

Great analogy thank you.

Mad_maxx

JMMCapital wrote: »

Surely the markets have already priced in brexit thus it wont affect BOI/AIB a whole pile we've known brexit was going to happen since well over 2 years now. I'll be buying BOI shares monday with the view of holding them long term there are still incredibly cheap if you look from a historic perspective. As Buffett says he doesn’t care how well the companies he’s invested in did last year — he’s more concerned with how they perform over decades.

Buffet is a genius, he has also invested in duds, IBM and tesco more recently, bank of Ireland has been a dreadful investment even you bought in 2013 on

Mad_maxx

Peter File wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post and Irish Times both extensively covered the collapsing share prices of Irish Banks over the weekend.

Michael noonan was a prize chump not to have sold when the sp was in the thirties circa 2014

coolshannagh28

Wilbur Ross was the smartest man in the room .