Bank of Ireland shares

Jim2007

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Buffet is a genius, he has also invested in duds, IBM and tesco more recently, bank of Ireland has been a dreadful investment even you bought in 2013 on

He also buys small positions in anywhere up to 100 companies per year simply because it allows him to gain access to management and ask questions he might not otherwise get answers to. Most of the time it is just information he is looking for, so best not read anything into the actions of others.

JMMCapital

Mad_maxx wrote: »

Buffet is a genius, he has also invested in duds, IBM and tesco more recently, bank of Ireland has been a dreadful investment even you bought in 2013 on

Look at all berkshire's bank holdings - Bank of America,Bank of New York Mellon Corp,JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,M&T bank,U.S. Bancorp,Wells Fargo he must be bullish long term on the banking sector.

Mad_maxx

JMMCapital wrote: »

Look at all berkshire's bank holdings - Bank of America,Bank of New York Mellon Corp,JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,M&T bank,U.S. Bancorp,Wells Fargo he must be bullish long term on the banking sector.

U. S financials are like tech relative to European banks in terms of growth

Since 1999, investing in the European banking index ( every month) has lost you money over 90% of the time, look it up, it's on forbes I think

There has been a lost generation in European equities but banks have been pure anhialation

JMMCapital

Mad_maxx wrote: »

U. S financials are like tech relative to European banks in terms of growth

Since 1999, investing in the European banking index ( every month) has lost you money over 90% of the time, look it up, it's on forbes I think

There has been a lost generation in European equities but banks have been pure anhialation

I wont be investing in EU banks anytime soon.

Jim2007

JMMCapital wrote: »

Look at all berkshire's bank holdings - Bank of America,Bank of New York Mellon Corp,JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,M&T bank,U.S. Bancorp,Wells Fargo he must be bullish long term on the banking sector.

Maybe, maybe not, you have to remember that he has a very limited stock universe to choose from due to the size of his portfolio. It may just as easily be that he finds himself in a position where it is difficult to divest himself of some of those holdings.

sk8board

JMMCapital wrote: »

Look at all berkshire's bank holdings - Bank of America,Bank of New York Mellon Corp,JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs,M&T bank,U.S. Bancorp,Wells Fargo he must be bullish long term on the banking sector.

At the time, he was bullish short term - he had cash and they were all paying a MASSIVE coupon to stay out of public ownership.

He’s ended up with a lot of free positions I would think, just like Wilbur Ross in BOI.

p to the e

Peter File wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post and Irish Times both extensively covered the collapsing share prices of Irish Banks over the weekend.

Would anyone have a link to the article(s).

Peter File

p to the e wrote: »

Would anyone have a link to the article(s).

Here you go. This is available for a few more days free

https://www.businesspost.ie/business/banks-future-balance-450283

Jim2007

Peter File wrote: »

Here you go. This is available for a few more days free

https://www.businesspost.ie/business/banks-future-balance-450283

Well they got one of the factors right:

As Irish banks do not engage in trading or wealth management, they rely more on traditional mortgages and lending to small and medium enterprises to make money, which is difficult in a low-rate environment.

But they missed the really big one, even in wealth management: the industry has morphed into a commodity industry and the race is full on.

If you are looking at any bank shares as a long term investment then you had better make sure that the bulk of it's income is fee based not interest based.

Mad_maxx

Dinarius wrote: »

Every time this chart had dropped to the critical 80 level over the past 30 years, there has been Euro central bank intervention - quantitative easing, printing money, adding to the money debt pyre, call it what you will.

Note how, over the last 15 years or so, more interventions were required, and they have been progressively less successful. (ever decreasing peaks on the chart)

One of the reasons for yesterday’s bounce - apart from some short covering - was that word came out that intervention is expected again next month. So much so, that I heard one analyst say it may already be priced in.

Given that this policy has increased debt in Europe to scary levels, and that it puts any hope of interest rate increases further into the future; you have to wonder what happens when it no longer works, which could well be this time.

This highlights a fundamental difference between Europe and USA/China. Europe is a 27 speed economy, and the speeds are diverging from one another ever more. USA, China can adjust their essentially one speed economies as needs be.

Have to worry about the future of the European project.


D.

All the talk on cnbc - bloomberg is that Europe is the new Japan, we are twenty years into a bear market with European equities, only another ten to go

Mad_maxx

Peter File wrote: »

The Sunday Business Post and Irish Times both extensively covered the collapsing share prices of Irish Banks over the weekend.

Only about twelve months too late taking notice

Jim2007

Mad_maxx wrote: »

All the talk on cnbc - bloomberg is that Europe is the new Japan, we are twenty years into a bear market with European equities, only another ten to go

It might be only eighteen years or maybe it's forty years, the talking heads don't know any more that you. And they are there to collect a fee, not make you rich. If they are boring they don't get asked back. Best ignored and stick to factual info.

Kickstart1.3

Added even more this week, average now down to €4.20. I know I said I wasn't going to add anymore but I'm thinking we may be near the bottom now.
Price rise is via the stairs,
Price falls take the lift!! Looks like it'll be a long road ahead for me

Dinarius

Mad_maxx wrote: »

All the talk on cnbc - bloomberg is that Europe is the new Japan, we are twenty years into a bear market with European equities, only another ten to go

Many, many economies, all operating at different speeds, and all using the same (% rate) brake and accelerator.

Is the great, unifying € project doomed to failure, eventually?

I sincerely hope not. And, I hope that the Brits don’t have the last laugh. I see Brexit as a perverse, ideological dream that has little basis in economics and the common good.

But, if the € fails, a few more may exit the EU along with them.

D.

Peter File

€3.53 today 40c above its year low.

Keith1111

Looks like it's on rise
3.72 today
Do ye think it fall or keep going up

Gatoh

The Brexit almost over with seems like a positive outcome for everyone , I think it's gonna be fantastic, fill ye wellingtons with dem shares

Jim2007

Gatoh wrote: »

The Brexit almost over with seems like a positive outcome for everyone , I think it's gonna be fantastic, fill ye wellingtons with dem shares

Nonsense absolutely noting has changed, it is still a bank doing all the wrong things.

daheff

Gatoh wrote: »

The Brexit almost over with seems like a positive outcome for everyone , I think it's gonna be fantastic,

not sure i could feel your optimism. Brexit seems to be far from over....and certainly not positive!


Markets don't like uncertainty, so any form of certainty would be a positive for shares.

Gatoh

There's nothing positive about the Bank of Ireland share dealing in general..
I just could not help myself but to make a sarcastic comment when someone says " Looks like it's on rise "
I got out ( loads of monies lost and lesson learned) when this dog share was last seen priced 7.50.. like a year ago or something
Now we're hanging somewhere in between 3 and 4 - it's not looking anything like "a rise" to me , give it a couple of more years and we'll see dem BOI shares being bought and sold under a euro - back to penny-stock party only this time no share subdivision needed.. IMHO

Zenify

Gatoh wrote: »

There's nothing positive about the Bank of Ireland share dealing in general..
I just could not help myself but to make a sarcastic comment when someone says " Looks like it's on rise "
I got out ( loads of monies lost and lesson learned) when this dog share was last seen priced 7.50.. like a year ago or something
Now we're hanging somewhere in between 3 and 4 - it's not looking anything like "a rise" to me , give it a couple of more years and we'll see dem BOI shares being bought and sold under a euro - back to penny-stock party only this time no share subdivision needed.. IMHO

What is the lesson learned? What could you spot the next time?

Jim2007

Zenify wrote: »

What is the lesson learned? What could you spot the next time?

Banks and insurance companies require specialist knowledge and most investors are best advised to stay well clear of them. These kind of companies are continually restructuring, reorganising and restating things and if you don't know enough to be able to strip their accounts down and make the necessary adjustments to get a feel for what is really going on, you will eventually get badly burned.

Gatoh

Zenify wrote: »

What is the lesson learned? What could you spot the next time?

"..Banks and insurance companies require specialist knowledge and most investors are best advised to stay well clear of them.."

100%

JMMCapital

Especially with interest rates being close to zero how will the banks increase shareholder's wealth? Stay clear of the banking industry, I learned my lesson back in 2017. the only good time to buy bank shares is right after a downturn like 2008.

Dinarius

11% up today.

Biggest one day rise ever? Must be close.

Presumably gambling on peace in our time regarding Brexit.

D.

Mad_maxx

Dinarius wrote: »

11% up today.

Biggest one day rise ever? Must be close.

Presumably gambling on peace in our time regarding Brexit.

D.

Not close to the biggest ever but still big, whole lot of short covering

Morleystreet

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Added even more this week, average now down to €4.20. I know I said I wasn't going to add anymore but I'm thinking we may be near the bottom now.
Price rise is via the stairs,
Price falls take the lift!! Looks like it'll be a long road ahead for me

Not that long a road for you after all!! Just wondering are you going to get out now that you are at your BEP.

Kickstart1.3

Morleystreet wrote: »

Not that long a road for you after all!! Just wondering are you going to get out now that you are at your BEP.

Not just yet, this has the potential to become a very lucrative return over the next few weeks/months.
I do expect a bit of price volatility while the Unionists throw the rattler out, but it looks like a brexit deal is going to get done and with that I'm expecting a quick rise above €5 in the run up to Christmas

sk8board

Kickstart1.3 wrote: »

Not just yet, this has the potential to become a very lucrative return over the next few weeks/months.
I do expect a bit of price volatility while the Unionists throw the rattler out, but it looks like a brexit deal is going to get done and with that I'm expecting a quick rise above €5 in the run up to Christmas

I assume you’re just making that assumption based purely on brexit volatility, and not based on any banking fundamentals that would point towards BOI being able to increase shareholder value in the short or medium term.

Kickstart1.3

sk8board wrote: »

I assume you’re just making that assumption based purely on brexit volatility, and not based on any banking fundamentals that would point towards BOI being able to increase shareholder value in the short or medium term.

Well I'm also taking into account the banks fair value is about €6.20. Return to shareholders from forecasted annual earnings growth is around 18%
But neither of these are relevant at the moment, its all about Brexit and investor sentiment.