Bank of Ireland shares

bankboucy

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119013416#Comment_119013416

Markets are full of signal and noise....McDonagh resigning is noise............Buffet says you want to own a business thats so good even an idiot could run it, cause one day one will......she did some good things, she did some bad things IMO......renumeration limit wont be a problem......see you forget, a mildly competent idiot could run BOI......look at its competitive position & franchise...... its a duopoly vanilla retail mortgage bank in a niche market, on the fringes of Europe where competition was already limited but is growing more limited still with all the international exits......all this and in a rising interest rate environment.

As I've said many times in this thread - its an 8-9 euro stock......all that it requires is your patience but some people dont have it. Oh well.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119068927#Comment_119068927

Markets are jittery at present. You have the Russian/ Ukraine war, the trend towards higher interest rates which has two negative effects on banks, the fear of a recession, the effect of the government's share sale and on top of that the leaving of a CEO.

It was not a good time to have another negative factor. Will BOI price push on again. Yes it will, I would not be as bullish as 3-4 months ago. There will definitely be retrenchment of share prices in the next 6-12 months.

ingeneer

The price has been up and down all summer, but taken a big leap today to 6.60. Anyone know why? I know they appointed a new CEO recently (former employee of BOI) and the ECB rate has gone up. Thought that would have been priced in already. Hopefully 7 next :D

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119590458#Comment_119590458

Rate rise = bank makes money on deposits as opposed to loosing money on them at the start of the year. ECB speech would have had an impact because it wouldn’t have been priced in.

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593047#Comment_119593047

How exactly? The reason for negative rates were to prevent money flowing into the banks because they could not find suitable investment opportunities, so has the investment horizon suddenly improved and people are happy to take out loans at higher rates?

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593132#Comment_119593132

They can park the excess liquidity at central bank and get 75bps from today. They won’t pass that on to customers so have increased their NIM

Jim2007

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593148#Comment_119593148

Dig out their accounts and start dealing in facts. Banks do not make a killing out of parking funds with a lender of last resort.

Timing belt

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119593190#Comment_119593190

I fully understand how banks work thank you and how the funding of a bank works.

There is excess liquidity in a lot of banks and thanks to CRDIV the have to keep a portfolio of liquid assets which is quite sizeable… This portfolio is mainly gov. Bonds and central bank placements. The fact is that the bank is no longer paying negative rates to central bank and instead is earning money on it.

Bass Reeves

Banks will not have to pay positive interest rates to customers until rates hit 1-1.5%. With the fact that Irish banks have more deposits there lending they will now start to earn money on there excess deposits

Not only that but there lending rates may not increase as much as many expect.

AnF Chuckie egg

They have a good deposit / loan ratio

Buoyant economy here despite what the naysayers reckon

Getting a large amount of new account openings

ECB set for another rate hike in December so with KCB and Davy on the portfolio profits should balloon to over €1.5 billion in 2023

Market moving money moving from risky growth stocks to stable dividend payers

€7 today, it could easily do €10-€13 in the next 18 - 24 months plus dividends

ingeneer

Only took a few days to hit 7. Even hit 7.25 at some stage today. I'll probably take some profits off the table soon. Always thought I'd be happy if it hit 7 😁

People ten years ago warning not to buy at €0.07.

Worth 100 times that today.

roosterman71

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610520#Comment_119610520

Don't think it's that. There was a consolodation in the meantime. Forget what it was now. Could have been 30:1 or something. I don't think the share price is back to where it was yet

bcklschaps

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119610748#Comment_119610748

Yep, a 30:1 share consolidation back in 2017. Which means that the current Share price of €7 is representative of about 0.23c in "old money".

https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2017/0331/864210-bank-of-ireland/#:~:text=Bank%20of%20Ireland%20announces%2030-to-1%20share%20consolidation%20move&text=At%20the%20same%20time%20it,of%20the%20move%2C%20it%20said.

Ah ok. 3x then.

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119611166#Comment_119611166

Was there a second consolidation as well before that ?

Edit

Sorry there was a rights issue of 5 for every eight you held in 2011 which cost 10 c/ share.

Bass Reeves

Government has sold down the last of its shareholding in BOI.

cute geoge

I have a fair chunk bought at average of 3 euro ,has more then doubled .I am gouing to set a price and take my profit when it hits that price .

What would lads think of 10 euro .I have never sold shares at a profit bar the company was bought out like united drug and fyffes .I am a disaster and tend to sit until they boom or bust .

rolling boh

Are there prospects for dividends in the next year or two something a good deal better than the present almost nothing ? .

Bass Reeves

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119659200#Comment_119659200

I have bought and sold 4-5 times since 3 euro. Last time got out at 6.5 bought at 5.75 and sold at 7 euro. I no longer wait for a price. I do this with 2-3 shares. I am often all in in two of them.

AnF Chuckie egg

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119661886#Comment_119661886

Classic case of Timing the Market Vs Time in the Market. I don't think the average investor can time the market, most ones that try eventually get dumped out at some stage. I think if you were to look back on this thread you'd see lads talking about getting out at €3 and planning to buy back in again at €2 etc. I even noticed with BOI the spread was very wide at times, the market makers was taking the good out of anyone trying to trade this. Yes it can be done, but in reality it rarely is and most people that try it end up missing out on much larger gains if they had stayed in or just get left behind as they wait for a pullback that doesn't happen.

otterj

On a broader point what about the impact of impairment charge on its PBT? The Irish economy is very exposed to the global economy and a with a recession looming what will its effects have here. GDP forecasts look relatively good when compared to the wider world but with an energy war on the way what effects will this have globally? Until the west can get more energy from renewables itll be a tough few years im guessing. But will it be that tough that people go into arrears on their mortgages?

AnF Chuckie egg

Share price has hit €9.11 this morning. This looks like a €10+ stock in 2023. It's on a fantastic run, I suspect the two acquisitions are going to prove very profitable.

It's mad how people were throwing money at Tech stocks with sky high valuation while this Irish Bank was sitting in the doldrums while quietly making progress, and now making money hand over fist

cute geoge

I bought in at average 3.70 ,this has made up losses big time I had back in the crash .What if any should be my exit strategy .Doing nothing until they hit 10 anyway but they are looking like long term hold

bcklschaps

Irish banks share prices have really bucked the international trends ... Congrats to anybody who has invested and held firm.

I have done very nicely myself with AIB & PTSB.

I think they have prospered because of increasing interest rates in EU, the lack of real competition in the Irish market and the continuing remarkable strength of the Irish economy which is a complete outlier in Europe/world at this stage.

A word of warning however warning ⚠️ Were one or more of these 3 things to change.... Then my advice would be, run for the doors. Happy New Year all 🥳 🎉

Dinarius

I did ok, but I sold too early. Nothing new there! :)

BofI is now trading at a premium to its peers and the sector in general. It is also considerably above its 50 day EMA.

The market seems to believe that a very changed banking landscape in Ireland, coupled with benefits from acquisitions and better scrutiny will allow profits to catch up with its p/e of about 13, in time.

It will be interesting to see how it fares. I can't see it falling back much.

On this day of new year's predictions, I'm going to predict €9.00 +/- €0.25 at close of business on December 29th next.

I will watch closely and if it touches its 50 day EMA, I may go back in. But, that would mean a fall to about €8.00.

Interesting times.

D.

Ps. Funny how quiet the nay-sayers became a few months back.

grange mac

10 eur on horizon.... Not a bad run.

ingeneer

Interesting to compare today's market cap (10.6 billion) to Feb 2007 (18.2 billion). Not saying it will reach that again - just shows how mad it was

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/cantillon-giddy-heights-of-banks-pre-crash-shares-1.1405899

Geuze

As I bought on several occasions during 2007-2017, my breakeven point is 18.92, so still a long way to go for me to recoup the savage losses due to the banking crisis.

Still, 10.00 is much better than less than 5 a few years ago.

ballyharpat

I bought into this at 4.00 in Feb 2020, held on through the bad times, sold at 6.00 in aug 2022, honestly, I cant see any reason why it kept rising. I couldn't find any information on it, so I had no idea what direction it was going. I find it baffling to see that it has risen so much, I still cant see reasons to justify it, but maybe I dont have access to the information that others have.