December 2011 Boards forecast contest

Sponge Bob

Not the grass minimum, so chill

Sponge Bob

Officially all of Claremorris, Roches, Cork Airport and Valentia made precisely 13.1c yesterday. Couple of 12s in the hourlies already today.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Su Campu

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Officially all of Claremorris, Roches, Cork Airport and Valentia made precisely 13.1c yesterday. Couple of 12s in the hourlies already today.

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

Strange, yesterday's 18Z synop gave 13.2 at Claremorris.

M.T. Cranium

Update for three weeks of data (well most of it anyway) ...

IMT for the past week was 5.0 C and that edges the monthly up to 4.6 C. Today will boost it to 5.0 or so. These very mild days are adding about half a degree to the IMT each day, but only if both high and low are exceptional. Looking at the forecasts, that makes it likely that the IMT will continue to climb into the high 5 or low 6 range, the question being whether any changes to that would be made by events past the 27th.

Rainfall for the week was about 74% of normal and that drags down the monthly pace to about 85%. Can't see much of a signal for this to change in either direction. But it is a rather sketchy estimate anyway due to missing data.

Sunshine held steady at 90% although only Casement was much below normal last week. That figure could rise somewhat as it only takes about three full days of sunshine to exceed 150% for the rest of the month. As there could be something like that and then some, look for sunshine to move above 100% by month's end, perhaps to 110%? We shall see.

Su Campu

13.3 °C at Shannon Airport today so the 13.2 at Claremorris yesterday is irrelevant now.

Sponge Bob

13.3c was bet today. Somewhere in the range 13.4c-13.7c will be the official high.

Su Campu

It was 13.7 C at Oak Park.

M.T. Cranium

The official numbers for the bonus question, min and max at Dublin (A) for the 25th, were 9.6 and 13.3 C.

In other words, higher in both cases than all but one of the guesses.

The four highest predictions based on smallest total error from 22.9 and adjusting for one max prediction above the mark, (scooping the coveted 10 points) look to be:

200motels ... 2.7, 13.5 (16.2 = 7.1) very good on the max so I put it first
waterways ... 5.7, 10.9 (16.6 = 6.3) best overall and on the min
pauldry ... 4.0, 11.0 (15.0 = 7.9)
Strasser ... 5.4, 9.7 (15.1 = 7.8) these two are a toss-up for third

MTC ... 3.7, 10.3 (14.0 = 8.9) I was in this group on a post-Christmas dinner high until I noticed Strasser's high min, so now down to 9 points now with ...

a second group who were all around 10 deg total error, looking good for nine points, we find MTC, Delw, WolfeIRE, and contest leader Nilhg. As Nilhg generally has a very good December forecast unfolding, I feel confident in saying he/she can't be caught now (we shall see). Just wondering, how does "Nilhg" say their own username, do they say "NIL - H - G" or "NIL-Mercury?" I say NIL - H -G (for the win).

The rest of the points will be given out in groups of four until there are no more. As to the additional non-scoring question, white Christmas? Well ... possibly on top of a very high summit from leftover snow.

Su Campu

13.3 C max at Dublin.

Sponge Bob

13.7c in Oak Park is confirmed 25/12

http://www.met.ie/climate/daily-data.asp

Finner 13.3c
Shannon 13.3c
Valentia 13.4c
Malin 13.1c

Casement Max = 13.0c and Min 9.7c
Dublin Airport Max = 13.3c and Min 9.6c

nilhg

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The official numbers for the bonus question, min and max at Dublin (A) for the 25th, were 9.6 and 13.3 C.

In other words, higher in both cases than all but one of the guesses.

The four highest predictions based on smallest total error from 22.9 and adjusting for one max prediction above the mark, (scooping the coveted 10 points) look to be:

200motels ... 2.7, 13.5 (16.2 = 7.1) very good on the max so I put it first
waterways ... 5.7, 10.9 (16.6 = 6.3) best overall and on the min
pauldry ... 4.0, 11.0 (15.0 = 7.9)
Strasser ... 5.4, 9.7 (15.1 = 7.8) these two are a toss-up for third

MTC ... 3.7, 10.3 (14.0 = 8.9) I was in this group on a post-Christmas dinner high until I noticed Strasser's high min, so now down to 9 points now with ...

a second group who were all around 10 deg total error, looking good for nine points, we find MTC, Delw, WolfeIRE, and contest leader Nilhg. As Nilhg generally has a very good December forecast unfolding, I feel confident in saying he/she can't be caught now (we shall see). Just wondering, how does "Nilhg" say their own username, do they say "NIL - H - G" or "NIL-Mercury?" I say NIL - H -G (for the win).

The rest of the points will be given out in groups of four until there are no more. As to the additional non-scoring question, white Christmas? Well ... possibly on top of a very high summit from leftover snow.

That's the beauty of internet discussion boards, you generally don't have to worry about how others will pronounce your user name:D
Anyway you want is fine with me as long as you are saying something nice about me.....

As for being caught, all I'll say is that I'm hopeful but really don't like counting my chickens before they're hatched, so to speak.

M.T. Cranium

It helps that your two closest chasers have either a similar forecast, or one that has already scored lower on bonus and needs more help on anything substantially different than the models currently advertise, and even then the points differential appears too high for any outcome to change the order of finish. Actually a lot of contestants are going to rack up 60-80 points this month the way things are turning out.

M.T. Cranium

An update for the fourth week (22-28 Dec) ...

The IMT has ballooned after taking in 8.7 during the fourth week, so now it stands at about 5.6 or 5.7 C. Could push up a fraction further now.

The week's precip was about 93% which adjusts that monthly value to 87% -- this being somewhat of an estimated value from earlier missing data, but also subject to inflation near the end.

The sunshine was largely absent, only 35% and that based mostly on whatever sunshine was seen yesterday. This leaves the monthly average about 77% of normal. There had been maps showing potential for sunshine a week ago but not so much now.

Sponge Bob

Monthly summary

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/dec11sum.pdf

Rainfall for the month was above average along the Atlantic coast and in the northwest, with most stations
in the west reporting their wettest December in 5 years and an above normal number of wetdays (days with
1mmor more) recorded. Malin Head had the highest rainfall relative to normal in December, with 179 % of
its long-term average and its wettest December since 1999 (12 years). The rest of Ireland reported a dry
month with below average rainfall. Casement Aerodrome received only 72% of its monthly rainfall total and
recorded its driest December since 2004 (7 years). The majority of the month’s highest daily falls were on
the 12th and 19th, but were relatively small, with some stations reporting it as their lowest December daily
rainfall for a number of years. At Dublin Airport and Mullingar, it was the lowest daily rainfall at the sites in
December since 1963 (48 years) and 1970 (41 years), respectively. Mean temperatures for December were
above average or average for the time of year. Mean maximum temperatures for the month were above
normal everywhere, but almost all stations reported their maximum temperatures, mostly recorded on the
25th and 26th, were not as high as December 2007. Minimum air temperatures were warmer than normal
almost everywhere, leading to a below average number of air frosts recorded, of between zero and eight.
Malin Head and Belmullet both reported that their minimum air temperature’s for December of 2.0°C and
1.6°C, respectively, were the warmest minimum temperatures recorded since 1988 (23 years). Sunshine
during December was below average nearly everywhere, with Casement Aerodrome recording 26.2 hours of
sunshine and the dullest December on record since the station opened in 1964 (47 years). Other stations
across the country reported it was their dullest December for between six and 20 years

Records

EXTREME VALUES AT SYNOPTIC STATIONS
Rainfall Highest total: 188.0mm at Valentia Observatory
Lowest total: 49.1mm at Phoenix Park
Highest daily rainfall: 23.0mm at Valentia Observatory on the 12th (its lowest daily fall for December since 2004)
Temperature Highest mean monthly temperature: 8.7°C at Sherkin Island
Lowest mean monthly temperature: 4.9°C at Knock Airport
Highest temperature: 13.7°C at Carlow (Oak Park) on 25th
Lowest air temperature: -4.9°C at Mullingar on 16th
Lowest grass minimum temperature: -10.1°C at Mullingar on 16th
Sunshine Highest monthly total: 57.8 hours at Dublin Airport (its dullest December since 2005)
Lowest monthly total: 16.7 hours at Valentia Observatory(its dullest December since 1993)
Highest daily sunshine: 6.7 hours at Dublin Airport on 17th

M.T. Cranium

December final stats
___________________________

Thanks to the Met-E "Monthly Summary" and a bit of detective work, I have compiled these final stats for December.

IMT was 5.9 C (5.94 actually)

max temp 13.7 C (Oak Park, 25th)

min temp -4.9 C (Mullingar, 16th)

precip was 110% (11 stations)

sunshine was 71% (6 stations)

we already discussed the bonus question results (see back a few posts)

The task before me now (aargh) is to make coffee, wake up and get over to the annual scoring thread where I will do the formalities. Then maybe tomorrow I will stumble around in the winter forecast table and convert some predictions to scores.

Would say, watch for the monthly results to pop up around 6:30 pm and then I should have the annual contest results by 8 or so.