Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

Tabnabs

This is bad news for any self sufficiency folks in Europe. Might be worth buying soon before the price rockets.

The EU's trade chief will recommend placing punitive import duties on billions of euros of solar panels from China, people close to the matter say, putting up a barrier to protect European producers but risking upsetting Beijing.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/us-eu-china-solar-idUSBRE9420B720130503?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Khannie

About time tbh. China has been deliberately undercutting solar manufacturers in the west for years with subsidies etc. I wish the US / EU didn't try to plámás China so much, personally. We need to be able to manufacture stuff like this ourselves.

silentrust

Tabnabs wrote: »

This is bad news for any self sufficiency folks in Europe. Might be worth buying soon before the price rockets.



http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/03/us-eu-china-solar-idUSBRE9420B720130503?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

Well said Tabnabs, I have been ordering a number of these on eBay as I saw an article on the same subject on the BBC website - in any case this is just a matter of good practice from a Survivalist perspective as when the dead walk the earth or what have you, we're hardly going to be able to pop into our local photovoltaics supplier to stock up.

silentrust

krissovo wrote: »

I did experience a currency collapse in the Former Yugoslavia, I served in Bosnia very early in the conflict when the Dinar was still the local currency. At first it was devalued at 10:1, imagine 1/10 of your savings/salary disappearing over night. Soon after this hyper inflation kicked off and really wiped the slate clean when notes were printed up to 10billion dinar.

Very soon after this started the dinar was almost universally dropped and people took it upon themselves to start using the German Deutschmark or other trade items. Precious metals during the height of the crisis was almost worthless, these only had local value once there was local recovery.

Sterling and dollars were also traded but the Deutschmark was seen as the strongest currency due to the fact it was easiest to get hold in mainland Europe and stable.

I have 50% of my money in Sterling, its a gamble but I think if the Euro did collapse then the Irish would trade in Sterling with the best rates. I have lost a few bob in the exchange but I now travel to the UK to deposit money. The Dollar is a bit too far away to get hold of decent amounts. I have some gold but its only for once there is a recovery, as a trade item its useless.

Top trade items were:
Underwear & Socks- I guarantee in most non western places around the globe you will get a warm reception and best trade value if you have underwear or socks to trade. I have been doing it in Africa and Asia since the late 80's. It was the same after a few months in Bosnia, I always crammed a bergan full I bought from penney's of the stuff before I deployed so I could trade with locals.

Toilet paper - Do I need to say more, it runs out quicker than you think!

Livestock - Mmmmmmm, fresh meat! Even in parts of Bosnia that escaped the conflict fresh meat and dairy produce would trade very well. Livestock went like tulips at one point where a goat could get you a car!

Skills - If you are skilled you have a trade item, skilled workers never went hungry as they traded work for items they needed. Builders, metalworkers, craft items (pots, pans, utensils, baskets etc) and plumbers seamed to do best, carpenters, brickies, butchers (its true) went in decline

Feel good items - Chocolate, perfume, deodorant, nice clothes etc etc.......... When the SHTF pound for pound these were more valuable than any precious metal.

Food - Convenience food stuffs are very handy to have and trade with. In Bosnia I gave a family with nothing a 10 man ration box, they managed to trade part of this up for some tools so the man could start trading skills.

Fascinating, I have always been leery about people sinking their money into precious metal. I was reflecting on this recently when reading the post-apocalyptic novel Wolf and Iron where the protagonist meets a trader and attempts to sell off some 22ct gold coins he keeps in his belt but is told the belt itself is more valuable for precisely the reasons you give - precious metals are only a store of value if the local economy is healthy.

I did read about the Jewish ghettos in Germany (please no one invoke Godwin's Law just yet!) where the staple trade goods were the same as you outline here - food, clothing and cooking utensils were very much in vogue.

I also read about a ghetto in the US where the de facto currency was washing detergent -on the face of it you can see the advantages given how easy it is to measure out.

Khannie

silentrust wrote: »

we're hardly going to be able to pop into our local photovoltaics supplier to stock up.

That's what the punitive duties are actually there to ensure.

silentrust

Khannie wrote: »

That's what the punitive duties are actually there to ensure.

No wonder the Chinese always mark stuff I order as a "gift." :-D

wolfeye

"Once again, the world shuffles closer to the Flupocalypse. GPs and hospitals are on sniffle alert for visitors freshly flown in from china, who may be harbouring the potentially lethal H7N9 bird flu virus and quietly seeding a pandemic. We're not there yet, thankfully, but a packed London briefing this week was not for those of a nervous disposition."

Fluocalypse ,great word that. lol.

In today's Irish Independent.
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/world-braces-as-new-virus-brings-flupocalypse-ever-closer-29241738.html

silentrust

wolfeye wrote: »

"Once again, the world shuffles closer to the Flupocalypse. GPs and hospitals are on sniffle alert for visitors freshly flown in from china, who may be harbouring the potentially lethal H7N9 bird flu virus and quietly seeding a pandemic. We're not there yet, thankfully, but a packed London briefing this week was not for those of a nervous disposition."

Fluocalypse ,great word that. lol.

In today's Irish Independent.
http://www.independent.ie/world-news/world-braces-as-new-virus-brings-flupocalypse-ever-closer-29241738.html

I was in Germany when the Swine Flu broke out, yet another reason to have a survival strategy centering on staying put instead of roaming over a plague ridden landscape in a custom HumVee. :-)

silentrust

The Mustard wrote: »

I reckon China will be very conscious of protecting it's investment in the US, which is about One Trillion Dollars.

I don't see China choosing to go to war with it's investment.

As for those crazy North Koreans, if they were going to take any action, they'd have done it by now, instead of all the sabre-rattling.

My total guess is that Kim Jong Un wants something from China. If they throw him a bone, he'll shut up again for a while.

My own opinion for what it's worth is that he's pandering to the hardliners within his own military who are taking advantage of the young "Great Leader's" lack of experience.

Having stepped up the rhetoric, I think his plan is to manoeuvre his country into a better negotiating position when it comes to getting the US and EU to lift sanctions on North Korea.

This kind of bellicose, bullying tone has been used before by his father and government officials, it really is nothing new. The only real concern in my view is that they unintentionally do something to provoke the US like shoot down a plane.

eirator

wolfeye wrote: »

"Once again, the world shuffles closer to the Flupocalypse.

Being a bit dyslexic I misread that first time around and read fu€upalypce which is probably more likely here in Ireland than anything else.

Tabnabs

Always a fear I'd have if I lived near a train line. BOB by the front door!



Two dead, nearly 300 evacuated in Belgium after train with chemicals derailed, caught fire.

http://rt.com/news/belgium-train-chemicals-fire-811/

wolfeye

Health officials are grappling with unanswered questions as they struggle to understand the threat posed by the new coronavirus that’s killed more than half the people diagnosed with the respiratory infection.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-13/virus-trackers-grapple-with-unknowns-as-coronavirus-spreads.html

Tabnabs

A glimpse of what it would be like it the ice age returned?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqptbtwXUCs

For all the doomsday preppers waiting for EMPs, polar shifts, global economic collapse, I never see a return to an ice age listed as a fear.

eirator

Tabnabs wrote: »

A glimpse of what it would be like it the ice age returned?

...

For all the doomsday preppers waiting for EMPs, polar shifts, global economic collapse, I never see a return to an ice age listed as a fear.

Is that because we think that a return to an ice age would be a slow process and the others much quicker to occur?

Tabnabs

You mean you haven't seen a documentary called 'The Day After Tomorrow'?

eirator

Tabnabs wrote: »

You mean you haven't seen a documentary called 'The Day After Tomorrow'?

Hmmmm D O C U M E N T A R Y

silentrust

eirator wrote: »

Is that because we think that a return to an ice age would be a slow process and the others much quicker to occur?

Moving to Dublin was enough to mimic the experience for me.

wolfeye

Tabnabs wrote: »

A glimpse of what it would be like it the ice age returned?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fqptbtwXUCs

For all the doomsday preppers waiting for EMPs, polar shifts, global economic collapse, I never see a return to an ice age listed as a fear.

I guess a huge asteroid hitting the earth and changing the earth's orbit around the sun plus the dust thrown into the atmosphere blocking the sun light could cause an iceage fairly quickly.


http://www.nytimes.com/1987/03/16/us/impact-of-asteroid-is-linked-to-start-of-ice-age-on-earth.html

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/233199.stm

eirator

http://www.independent.ie/world-news/americas/at-least-91-people-dead-in-us-tornado-disaster-29283803.html

A 2-mile-wide (3-km-wide) tornado tore through the Oklahoma City suburb of Moore on Monday, killing at least 51 people while destroying entire tracts of homes, piling cars atop one another, and trapping two dozen school children beneath rubble.

More up to date reports are reporting 90+ deaths.

15 minutes warning given - are you ready to go and get out of town or take shelter in less than 15 minutes?

aaakev

The videos of that storm are crazy, everytime i see somethimg like this it makes me glad i live in ireland

Khannie

Same. We really are blessed.

aaakev

The worst we get is the odd flood or very odd cold spell, both easy enough to plan for

Tabnabs

Certainly not worth prepping for, but could ruin your vegetable garden/greenhouse etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl6URtz1Bls

Tabnabs

eirator wrote: »

More up to date reports are reporting 90+ deaths.

Thankfully that has now been dramatically reduced to 24 confirmed fatalities. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_OKLAHOMA_TORNADO_TOLL_REVISED?SITE=AP

aaakev

Tabnabs wrote: »

Certainly not worth prepping for, but could ruin your vegetable garden/greenhouse etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl6URtz1Bls

Quick put a brick on your patio furniture i COULD get blown over good video though!

ShadowFox

Tabnabs wrote: »

Certainly not worth prepping for, but could ruin your vegetable garden/greenhouse etc.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rl6URtz1Bls

Albeit small ones we seem to be getting alot of these lately. If we get bigger ones we are in serious trouble

Tabnabs

aaakev wrote: »

Quick put a brick on your patio furniture i COULD get blown over good video though!

:pac: absolutely. But in the UK (and not a million miles away) their worst one was in 2005 and cost £40 million in damge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Birmingham_tornado

eirator

Tabnabs wrote: »

:pac: absolutely. But in the UK (and not a million miles away) their worst one was in 2005 and cost £40 million in damge

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2005_Birmingham_tornado

Two words, well almost words...

87 storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

I slept through it and woke up to find a 120ft tall lime tree across our drive and most of our surrounding woodland flattened.

silentrust

eirator wrote: »

Two words, well almost words...

87 storm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Storm_of_1987

I slept through it and woke up to find a 120ft tall lime tree across our drive and most of our surrounding woodland flattened.

Really? How did you remove it?

I was 3 years old when this storm blew up in our faces - I remember my Dad almost being beheaded by a spinning roof tile as he attempted to batten down the hatches.

Fail to plan... :-)

eirator

silentrust wrote: »

Really? How did you remove it?

I was 3 years old when this storm blew up in our faces - I remember my Dad almost being beheaded by a spinning roof tile as he attempted to batten down the hatches.

Fail to plan... :-)

Big chainsaw

.... part of the planning, but also an everyday tool when you work on the land.

Until recently I used to pop a chainsaw in the boot of the car if it was really windy but I eventually realized that Ireland has so few trees there is little chance of the road being blocked by one coming down in a storm.