Farming if the euro goes

redzerologhlen

Right lads, Forgive my innocence on this topic. Im not the best at following politics and the economy but how will it effect farming if the euro goes which a lot of people seem to think. I dont know whether it will or not cause like I said I dont really understand it at all. Will we be waving bye bye to all the EU funded payments? Will make a tuff few years for lads if they do before the true value of stock is realised. Thanks in advance for any info.

reilig

redzerologhlen wrote: »

Right lads, Forgive my innocence on this topic. Im not the best at following politics and the economy but how will it effect farming if the euro goes which a lot of people seem to think. I dont know whether it will or not cause like I said I dont really understand it at all. Will we be waving bye bye to all the EU funded payments? Will make a tuff few years for lads if they do before the true value of stock is realised. Thanks in advance for any info.

If the Euro goes, we'll have to go back to punts.

If we're forced out of Europe, the Euro will still be in existance, but we won't be using it. If we leave the European Union, we'll get no SFP's or structural grants. Nor will our own government be able to give any subsidies.

Although, being farmers in a country with no currency or trying to redevelop an old one could have many advantages. We wouldn't be able to import for a while (until our currrency developed a value) so we'd have to source a lot of food and commodities in ireland. As farmers, we'd be the suppliers. I'm only speculating. I don't think it would be a good thing for us to leave the Euro but in hindsight, I think it was a very bad decision for a small country like ourselves to join the Euro currency - especially since our nearest neighbour and biggest trading partner didn't join.

MfMan

Don't think leaving the Euro is equivalent to leaving the EU, i.e. SFPs would / should still be paid AFAIK.

irishh_bob

reilig wrote: »

If the Euro goes, we'll have to go back to punts.

If we're forced out of Europe, the Euro will still be in existance, but we won't be using it. if we leave the Euro Zone, we'll get no SFP's or structural grants. Nor will our own government be able to give any subsidies.

Although, being farmers in a country with no currency or trying to redevelop an old one could have many advantages. We wouldn't be able to import for a while (until our currrency developed a value) so we'd have to source a lot of food and commodities in ireland. As farmers, we'd be the suppliers. I'm only speculating. I don't think it would be a good thing for us to leave the Euro but in hindsight, I think it was a very bad decision for a small country like ourselves to join the Euro currency - especially since our nearest neighbour and biggest trading partner didn't join.

farmers recieved subsidys long before the single currency was adopted , even the euro dies or ireland chooses ( unlikely ) to exit , we will still be in the EU

as for the consequences of a eurozone exit , the cost of imports like oil and fertilizer would go up quite considerabley as the punt would be significantly weaker than the euro , i can see any referendum on future membership of the euro getting an emphatic YES from the farming community and i can guarentee you that the IFA will canvass for a YES vote

i myself for what its worth will give a resounding NO , i think we should leave the euro in fact

reilig

irishh_bob wrote: »

farmers recieved subsidys long before the single currency was adopted , even the euro dies or ireland chooses ( unlikely ) to exit , we will still be in the EU

as for the consequences of a eurozone exit , the cost of imports like oil and fertilizer would go up quite considerabley as the punt would be significantly weaker than the euro , i can see any referendum on future membership of the euro getting an emphatic YES from the farming community and i can guarentee you that the IFA will canvass for a YES vote

i myself for what its worth will give a resounding NO , i think we should leave the euro in fact

Sorry Guys, I said Euro Zone meaning the group of countries as opposed to the currency. I should have said EU.

If we are forced out of the EU, or leave the EU, then we get no more subsidies.

redzerologhlen

And what would ye think is the most likely scenario at the moment lads?

fodda

January or early February........that's when it goes!

When all those with plenty of money have had time to diversify their millions/billions to something safer........they arent playing for time for yours or my benefit!

reilig

redzerologhlen wrote: »

And what would ye think is the most likely scenario at the moment lads?

I've a strong feeling that we're going to get the boot out of our current position in one way or another. At the moment, the germans are starting to panic - Moodies told them yesterday that countries like us are dragging them into recession. I don't think we'll be shifted out of the EU completly, but you could see us being placed in this EU Tier 2 that has been talked about over the last few weeks. That way, we'll be with all the other rotton apples, they can store us away in a back room where the rest of the world won't really notice us, we can fester away and blow up -for all they care. Just as long as we don't affect them!!

Whether we get to keep our EU subsidies under the above scenario is anyone's guess!

Tipp Man

redzerologhlen wrote: »

And what would ye think is the most likely scenario at the moment lads?

One thing to bear in mind Redzer is that some of the worlds best economists and financial commentators haven't a clue what is going to happen (and most will admit this) so there is no right and wrong answer. Any answer you get on here will not be definately right or definately wrong so you need to treat them as such.

My own personal opinion is that the EUR will not fail - how it will be saved I am not sure but i believe when the s##t really and truely hits the fan then it will be saved. We aren't quite at that point yet but heading that way

However it is very possible that Ireland may not be part of the EUR in the near future - either by our own choice (unlikely) or by force from Europe (possible).

The consequences on Ireland of not being in the EUR and huge. All imports would rise dramatically in price making certain items extremely expensive. It could be good for our export markets depending on the particular good being exported and the goods dependance on imported raw materials. We could default on paying back a large amount of our national debt without too much repurcussions as we'd no longer be part of EUR. This default would however mean we'd be excluded from borrowing for a period. We would start printing the punt again and for a very short time some people would be very happy as we'd print enough to protect "the most vulnerable in our society" and the bloody public sector, basically printing money to give to these people. However this happiness would be shortlived as rapid inflation will take over - especially when the large rise in imported goods is factored in. The value of the punt drops and if too much of it is printed it will drop like a stone and become basically worthless - especially outside of Ireland.

Just my 2cent (or should that be 2 pence) worth

irishh_bob

reilig wrote: »

I've a strong feeling that we're going to get the boot out of our current position in one way or another. At the moment, the germans are starting to panic - Moodies told them yesterday that countries like us are dragging them into recession. I don't think we'll be shifted out of the EU completly, but you could see us being placed in this EU Tier 2 that has been talked about over the last few weeks. That way, we'll be with all the other rotton apples, they can store us away in a back room where the rest of the world won't really notice us, we can fester away and blow up -for all they care. Just as long as we don't affect them!!

Whether we get to keep our EU subsidies under the above scenario is anyone's guess!

i can assure you ireland will not be booted out of the eurozone , the euro will end for one reason and one reason only , if germany decides its not worth it anymore and if they come to this descision , it wont be because of ireland , it will be because of thier own electorate + italy

a number of points

germany has benefited most from the euro currency , germany was in rescession for almost fifteen years after reunification with east germany , its banks had no customers , the euro gave it access to banks like anglo :mad: and irish nationwide and it was quite happy to throw money at theese irish institutions during our boom despite our obvious building bubble

germany is the biggest exporting nation in the world but prior to the euro , its had an extremley strong currency DM which hit its exports , were the euro to end , germanys DM would make the swiss franc look like italian lira , it would surge in value against other currencys like the irish punt or the spanish peso , strong currency hurt exports

that said , the root of europes troubles right now is one of debt , both soverign and banking , ireland merged its banking debt with its soverign so we have the worst of both worlds , italy has enormous soverign debt and the international bond markets dont believe they can pay off this debt which is why yields on thier bonds are rising sharply , so much so that it looks like they might need a bailout , unfortunatley italy is a trillion dollar economy and the IMF cannot afford to bail it out , only one country in europe has the firepower to prevent italy from needing a bailout , underwrite thier debt and that is germany but to do so would require the introduction of quantitive easing , printing money in order to buy up all the bad debt which is rendering the whole system paralysed , germanys is fanatically opposed to printing money as thier leads to inflation , inflation is what destroyed them after WW1 and they dont want to go there again under any condition , that said , the status quo of kicking the can down the road is unsustainable so germany will eventually have to decide whether they want to continue with the single currency project

my guess is that they do want to continue with it , they see it as much mroe than an economic project , germany will eventually agree to money printing in order to bail out the likes of italy but it will charge a very high price , they will insist on being the ones who write every eurozone countrys budget and will demand the right to set each countrys tax code , this will effectivley suck all economic power from each soverign country to the centre and we will be left with what is effectivley a united states of europe , the so called conspirocy theorists were not as mad as we thought , take a bow jim corr

referendums will be required in the likes of ireland in order to aproove futher european integration but i see ireland giving germany what it wants

1st of all our political class has no backbone and is completley wedded to the idea of doing what pleases the big guns in europe , FF and FG are indentical in this regard , only sinn fein have a different view

secondly , thier are too many people ( public servants and wellfare recipients ) who are very generously rewarded by the state that they will put economic interests ahead of national pride , old age pension , dole , public sector wages , would all see serious drops were ireland to leave the euro and no politician in ireland will make a descision that would incure the wrath of theese groups

germany might decide to walk away and deal with an over valued currency but i just dont see it happening , we are being softened up , made feel the heat of austerity so that when things seem unbearable , germany will ride in and offer to make everything ok once we just sign our country away

Tipp Man

irishh_bob wrote: »

i myself for what its worth will give a resounding NO , i think we should leave the euro in fact

Why do you think this bob?

theaceofspies

redzerologhlen wrote: »

And what would ye think is the most likely scenario at the moment lads?

Known unknowns and unknown unknowns springs to mind:)

If the Euro crashes it is very hard to see the EU continue. The farming subsidies would very likely disappear but the price of commodities would go through the roof especially milk & wheat which are more dietary essentials than beef which would become a luxury product.

Every cloud has a silver lining though and at least we would be forced to balance the books ourselves and discontinue with the charade that is the Croke Park Deal. Public sector workers would be on the peanut wage overnight... no more juicy allowances lads. The semi-state workers would be joining them within 12 months.
That being said it would be a big step in re-gaining our sovereignty and we as a nation would have to stand on our own feet for a change.

I don't buy this idea of a two-tier Europe - it's a red herring.

Ireland will be a very interesting place to be living in 12 months time. Don't be fretting about the Germans they are much smarter than paddy. :cool:

fodda

Europe and the Germans can not control the events which will decide if the euro continues and that is the deciding factor.

All through europe now a different kind of goverment is being elected which are anti-euro and all through europe the people have had enough and that includes Ireland. I certainly do not think that the Irish people would vote again for the euro or europe. Britain certainly won't and their views stifled recently but that is boiling and will raise itself again very soon as the euro and europe need Britain to contribute billions to further bailouts and their IMF contribution which the people will not pay.

Adding to this you have France which is sinking faster than the Titanic and its for sure when the French get up and start protesting they wont mess about.

The EU started as the common market and in those days everybody was happy....Germanys ambitions have imploded in their face and it just cant carry on much longer as you just cant keep taxing everybody for a few elite people.

Tipp Man

fodda wrote: »

The EU started as the common market and in those days everybody was happy....Germanys ambitions have imploded in their face and it just cant carry on much longer as you just cant keep taxing everybody for a few elite people.

How about you can't keep borrowing for spending to keep the masses happy with hugely inflated social welfare and public sector pay rates??

Did anybody see the frontline last night? They did a survey first question do you want to see a reduction in government spending or an increase in tax, the majority said cut spending (67%). However when questioned further the vast majority did not want to see cuts in

State Pensions - 77% opposed cuts
social welfare - 59% opposed
child benefit - 65% opposed
Single parent - 61% oppossed
Increase A&E charges - 84% opposed
Uni Fees - 61% oppossed

What does this tell us? Well it tells us that we acknowledge that cuts in expenditure need to be made but when it comes to it none of us want our little patch cut. We then get this "new" word austerity being thrown about for every single cut that is made, like the cuts are some kind of optional hell that the government is putting us through. The fact remains that our spending is way way to large in this country so the only way to remedy this is to cut expenditure, and that means across large areas on geovernement spending

bbam

I think the real danger is a value collapse of the Euro currency.. I doubt it will go altogether, remember the Euro/Sterling/Any currency is just a piece of paper promising a particular value, we'd have to use something so why not the Euro.. If its value were to collapse why switch to punt?? It would have as little value and it would be a headache administering a quick currency changeover..

My feelings are a sudden currency devaluation... We'll wake some morning to a € only worth 50-60% of it's current value...

The effects on farming as all sectors...
Basically everything we import would cost double over night... For farming I'd say Diesel & Fert would be the big hitters, Imagine agricultural diesel costing €2.50+ a litre.. And a shut down of farming exports...

Hyper-Inflation I think they call it :rolleyes:

It would I think be hell for a few months but I think other currencies would be affected and also lower in value taking the sting out of it.. Sterling couldn't stay strong, we are their biggest market and if we stopped buying overnight I think their economy would tank causing them to force a devaluation of STG..

theaceofspies

Things are pretty bad when you see Italy borrowing today @ 8%.... that's obviously not a choice they would like to have to make. They're broke too!

irishh_bob

Tipp Man wrote: »

Why do you think this bob?

because only one thing is certain , the status quo is unsustainable and the single currency will not survive indefinatley without major steps being taken , all we,ve had so far is can kicking and cosmetic surgery of which the markets are not convinced

if the euro dies ( if germany pulls the plug ) then ireland will revert back to its old currency , we will not be borrowing from the ECB and will be forced to cut spending over night , we can burn the bondholders and deal exclusivley with the IMF ( who dont care about burnng bondholders ) but spending will have to be cut , interest rates will rise dramatically under a new currency too

if the euro does survive , it will only be on germanys terms and a centralisation of fiscal policy will effectivley render ireland a colony of the brussells - berlin , the purpose of an empire traditionally was to extract wealth from the colonys and return it to the centre , the motherland , in this case the fatherland - germany will use ireland to its benefit , it will be happy to see us produce primary products like beef and cheese but will be much less keen on our output from the likes of intel and other american multinationals , our corporation tax ( like michael noonan ) will be gone and the centre will set our tax code and while we will be part of a hugely powerfull economic and politcal bloc, we will be very much on the outskirts of the action and will certainly have no say in any real important descision making

not that i think much of the goons that have run this place for the past number of decades but i honestly dont believe that a politican in berlin or paris will be anymore decent and honest than one in mullingar or mallow , berite aherne was so attrocious , i think people in ireland have become ultra cynical in thier view of politicans , so much so that i think a lot of people like the idea of handing over power to outside elites , i think this is foolish , i really do , i think this country is much better than a lot of people like to think , we still have democrocy and if people become more clued in as to how goverment or the state works , we can get the right people elected to the dail , if we allow people in berlin to call the shots , we will be effectivley powerless

leaving the euro would be very painfull for a few years but at least we would be masters of our own destiny going forward , we fought long and hard for independance , it would be a crime to give it away so cheaply

irishh_bob

fodda wrote: »

Europe and the Germans can not control the events which will decide if the euro continues and that is the deciding factor.

All through europe now a different kind of goverment is being elected which are anti-euro and all through europe the people have had enough and that includes Ireland. I certainly do not think that the Irish people would vote again for the euro or europe. Britain certainly won't and their views stifled recently but that is boiling and will raise itself again very soon as the euro and europe need Britain to contribute billions to further bailouts and their IMF contribution which the people will not pay.

Adding to this you have France which is sinking faster than the Titanic and its for sure when the French get up and start protesting they wont mess about.

The EU started as the common market and in those days everybody was happy....Germanys ambitions have imploded in their face and it just cant carry on much longer as you just cant keep taxing everybody for a few elite people.

the common market was an excellent project , unfortunatley the euro has been a political one disguised as an economic one , the uk saw through that albeit not in a direct way , the two countries we deal with primarily ( usa and uk ) are not in the single currency and we should never have been either

irishh_bob

bbam wrote: »

I think the real danger is a value collapse of the Euro currency.. I doubt it will go altogether, remember the Euro/Sterling/Any currency is just a piece of paper promising a particular value, we'd have to use something so why not the Euro.. If its value were to collapse why switch to punt?? It would have as little value and it would be a headache administering a quick currency changeover..

My feelings are a sudden currency devaluation... We'll wake some morning to a € only worth 50-60% of it's current value...

The effects on farming as all sectors...
Basically everything we import would cost double over night... For farming I'd say Diesel & Fert would be the big hitters, Imagine agricultural diesel costing €2.50+ a litre.. And a shut down of farming exports...

Hyper-Inflation I think they call it :rolleyes:

It would I think be hell for a few months but I think other currencies would be affected and also lower in value taking the sting out of it.. Sterling couldn't stay strong, we are their biggest market and if we stopped buying overnight I think their economy would tank causing them to force a devaluation of STG..

despite the increased cost of imports like diesel and fertilizer , i think farmers would be least effected by a euro collapse , i think the private sector in general would be hit a lot less than those who rely on the state for a living , which is why i belive state workers and those on wellfare will carry any referendum put to us , the country has turned into a nation of me feiners , each one looking to protect thier patch , thier is little civic mindedness , nationalism doesnt go much beyond supporting ireland at next years euro 2012 , money talks

KCTK

bbam wrote: »

My feelings are a sudden currency devaluation... We'll wake some morning to a € only worth 50-60% of it's current value...

The effects on farming as all sectors...
Basically everything we import would cost double over night... For farming I'd say Diesel & Fert would be the big hitters, Imagine agricultural diesel costing €2.50+ a litre.. And a shut down of farming exports...

Agree import costs will shoot through the roof if currency devalued (imports from outside the Euro zone that is) but don't see a shut down of farm exports, over 66% of farm exports go to non Euro countries so our products would actually be cheaper to buy in these countries which should boost exports or even relative price we receive for the exports. Exports going to other Euro zone countries would still have same relative value as we would have all devalued together.
When punt devalued back in early '90's exports actually grew.

But at this stage no one knows what will happen next thanks to the Germans and the French wasting the last two years coming up with hair brain, short term solutions that look good to their electorate instead of implementing a proper big bang long term solution. Now the big bang could see everything come crashing down around them...

theaceofspies

Well said Irish Bob... words of wisdom.

fodda

irishh_bob wrote: »

despite the increased cost of imports like diesel and fertilizer , i think farmers would be least effected by a euro collapse , i think the private sector in general would be hit a lot less than those who rely on the state for a living , which is why i belive state workers and those on wellfare will carry any referendum put to us , the country has turned into a nation of me feiners , each one looking to protect thier patch , thier is little civic mindedness , nationalism doesnt go much beyond supporting ireland at next years euro 2012 , money talks

"Protecting their little patch".....Well said and very true, but arent farmers the worst for doing that?

You mention public sector workers and welfare, but farming has been the most subsidised business since the second world war. Subsidies were origionaly bought in because after the war there was actually more people even after the carnage and many mouths to feed, also some industry was need to take in all the soldiers coming back home who couldnt be left with nothing to do, so agriculture was one of the industries which took off big time with help from subsidies and ever since then have wanted more and more and will never let go.

But the point is now you have finally come to the end.......there is no more money avaliable because everything has reached its peak so you get total collapse.

If the euro went tomorrow and everybody voted for the EU then you still have to find the money for all those mouths in every EU country.......public sector, farmers, welfare, etc.......Do you honestly think there is an endless money pit and the EU or whoever can simply keep inventing money to pay for all this? Every time they do this it just increases borrowing and interest to the stage where we are now. So it is just repeating the same process over and over again.........Economic madness! and soon or later the deck of cards has to fall.

Perhaps that is why those big players who want to keep the EU now talk about a "2 speed/2 piece EU" ..... " a greater and lesser EU" so they havent got to find all the money to bail out the no hopers but still have access to their assets?

bbam

fodda wrote: »

but farming has been the most subsidised business since the second world war.

Really ??
Is that in total or investment received per head working in the industry...
I know industries MNS in Ireland that have received gross amounts of subs to be in Ireland and they would employ allot less than there are employed in Farming...

I'd like to see it broken down per employee... me thinks it would be a close run thing...

bbam

irishh_bob wrote: »

despite the increased cost of imports like diesel and fertilizer , i think farmers would be least effected by a euro collapse , i think the private sector in general would be hit a lot less than those who rely on the state for a living , which is why i belive state workers and those on wellfare will carry any referendum put to us , the country has turned into a nation of me feiners , each one looking to protect thier patch , thier is little civic mindedness , nationalism doesnt go much beyond supporting ireland at next years euro 2012 , money talks

In fairness my feelings of nationalism were well destroyed since I've started picking up the tab for billionaire bankers/developers and the like of Sean Quinn..
I feel we're being screwed by the state because it is easier than pushing back on the vested interests of the uber-rich..
I doubt I'm the only one feeling like this...

The public sector have been made out to be demons, draining the country of its resources... They're not they keep our hospitals and schools going and I for one am grateful... We can't blame them because they were overpaid, we'd all take it if it was offered.. If the SFP was doubled in the morning we'd all be delighted and then kick up a stink if we were asked to take a cut...

keep going

whatever about the euro(the germans have the mark printed with a couple of months btw)wouldnt be great if we left the eu no more subsidy farmers and we could milk away as much as we want,might be the best thing that ever happened.we could tell all the bank bond holders to get lost and slash our costs across the boards.it would be s**t for a few years but we would be going alot faster

fodda

keep going wrote: »

whatever about the euro(the germans have the mark printed with a couple of months btw)wouldnt be great if we left the eu no more subsidy farmers and we could milk away as much as we want,might be the best thing that ever happened

One of the boom industries of the world from this day on is farming.....because of all the mouths to feed .........and if Ireland left the euro then because Irelands currency would be low, then their nearest neighbour who is over populated by far and can in no way feed themselves with a short fall of many millions.....would be only too pleased to buy Irelands agricultural produce and it would work out financially beneficial to both countries.

Then there is Irelands fish ........and potential energy from wind and timber and also a huge growing demand for clean water...........all of which is in abundance or could be in Ireland.

But this is never going to happen as long as Ireland is in the EU, it will probably get carved up and siphoned/lost in to a big bucket and shared out between EU states with no benefits to the land owners and its people.

bbam

keep going wrote: »

we could tell all the bank bond holders to get lost

I don't see them having the balls to do this... It would be great though

amacca

irishh_bob wrote: »

i think people in ireland have become ultra cynical in thier view of politicans , so much so that i think a lot of people like the idea of handing over power to outside elites , i think this is foolish , i really do , i think this country is much better than a lot of people like to think , we still have democrocy and if people become more clued in as to how goverment or the state works , we can get the right people elected to the dail , if we allow people in berlin to call the shots , we will be effectivley powerless

hear hear.....the amount of people that blithely make the statement that control should be given to Brussels is sickening imo

irishh_bob wrote: »

leaving the euro would be very painfull for a few years but at least we would be masters of our own destiny going forward , we fought long and hard for independance , it would be a crime to give it away so cheaply

agreed....and although leaving the euro etc would in all likelihood hurt me personally I would not be one of those that would defend his patch by selling our rights to govern ourselves to some faceless beaurocrat in Brussels.....I just hope the Lemmings don't jump off that particular cliff and then whinge about it later

money from anywhere always comes with strings attached...I'd nearly rather go hungry than have decisions made for us on an ongoing basis by suits in Brussels for 30 pieces of silver.

jeffwode

I think Ireland leaving the euro zone is almost a foregone conclusion at this point. We'll be out, as will Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and probably France too. The euro will likely continue to be used as the currency of Germany, Luxembourg (with all its banking business) the Netherlands and maybe one or two more, but we'll be out. When we're forced out (it'll be presented as a move we made of our own volition) it'll be very messy for a while. The punt will probably settle at about 60 - 70% of the euro value when the markets get hold of it following its reintroduction at a rate of 1 : 1 with the euro.

When things settle down here, it will ultimately be good for Irish farming. Imports will be outrageously expensive so no one will be importing food. Exports will be significantly cheaper so demand will rise and revenues will start to climb. Fertiliser, equipment and fuel will get a lot more expensive but it will settle down before too long things improve. Payments from Europe will still be in euro so they'll be more valuable when converted to punts although I wouldn't rule out the government finding some way to snaffle the increase.

irishh_bob

fodda wrote: »

"Protecting their little patch".....Well said and very true, but arent farmers the worst for doing that?

You mention public sector workers and welfare, but farming has been the most subsidised business since the second world war. Subsidies were origionaly bought in because after the war there was actually more people even after the carnage and many mouths to feed, also some industry was need to take in all the soldiers coming back home who couldnt be left with nothing to do, so agriculture was one of the industries which took off big time with help from subsidies and ever since then have wanted more and more and will never let go.

But the point is now you have finally come to the end.......there is no more money avaliable because everything has reached its peak so you get total collapse.

If the euro went tomorrow and everybody voted for the EU then you still have to find the money for all those mouths in every EU country.......public sector, farmers, welfare, etc.......Do you honestly think there is an endless money pit and the EU or whoever can simply keep inventing money to pay for all this? Every time they do this it just increases borrowing and interest to the stage where we are now. So it is just repeating the same process over and over again.........Economic madness! and soon or later the deck of cards has to fall.

Perhaps that is why those big players who want to keep the EU now talk about a "2 speed/2 piece EU" ..... " a greater and lesser EU" so they havent got to find all the money to bail out the no hopers but still have access to their assets?

farming is indeed a vested interest and the IFA ( as sure as sugar ) will call for a YES vote if the alternative results in a reduction in subsidys , the IFA has been every bit as pro europe as our goverments down the years , i think a lot of people have started to ask themselves different questions this past few years , is europe unconditionally a force for good in its present form , i myself voted for every treaty that was put before us this past decade but i wasnt really big on following closely different opinions back then

irishh_bob

bbam wrote: »

In fairness my feelings of nationalism were well destroyed since I've started picking up the tab for billionaire bankers/developers and the like of Sean Quinn..
I feel we're being screwed by the state because it is easier than pushing back on the vested interests of the uber-rich..
I doubt I'm the only one feeling like this...

The public sector have been made out to be demons, draining the country of its resources... They're not they keep our hospitals and schools going and I for one am grateful... We can't blame them because they were overpaid, we'd all take it if it was offered.. If the SFP was doubled in the morning we'd all be delighted and then kick up a stink if we were asked to take a cut...

you picked up the tab for german , french , british and american sean quinns when the bondholders were saved in 2008 , i happen to think brian lennehan was under serious pressure from merkel , sarkozy etc not to bring the whole thing down , all the banks in europe are interconnnected

as for public sector wages , such levels could never have been reached were it not for the temporary property boom and the huge revenues it generated but as moore mc dowell often says , its easy to give a dog a bone than take it back

irishh_bob

fodda wrote: »

One of the boom industries of the world from this day on is farming.....because of all the mouths to feed .........and if Ireland left the euro then because Irelands currency would be low, then their nearest neighbour who is over populated by far and can in no way feed themselves with a short fall of many millions.....would be only too pleased to buy Irelands agricultural produce and it would work out financially beneficial to both countries.

Then there is Irelands fish ........and potential energy from wind and timber and also a huge growing demand for clean water...........all of which is in abundance or could be in Ireland.

But this is never going to happen as long as Ireland is in the EU, it will probably get carved up and siphoned/lost in to a big bucket and shared out between EU states with no benefits to the land owners and its people.

this country has plenty of scope to create wealth and the best way to ensure that happens is by making our own moves

btw , just because the euro currency went doesnt mean the EU will collapse , the uk is in the EU and thier farmers recieve subs aswell , it wouldnt suprise me if those pushing for a YES vote tried to scare farmers with the line about no more subs but as i said earlier , farmers were recieving subs long before 2002 when the euro arrived

n900guy

irishh_bob wrote: »

.....we still have democrocy and if people become more clued in as to how goverment or the state works , we can get the right people elected to the dail , if we allow people in berlin to call the shots , we will be effectivley powerless

leaving the euro would be very painfull for a few years but at least we would be masters of our own destiny going forward , we fought long and hard for independance , it would be a crime to give it away so cheaply

I disagree one a few points there:

- we have a parliamentary government, which is definitely not a democracy in how it's casually thought of. There is no consensus on political decisions, and massive centralisation of income towards Dublin, leaving much the country in a shambles of boozed up beliefs of representation. The reality is that our political parties pick and choose who is present based on the following democratic principles of:

a) You Scratch My Back, and
b) Is That A Brown Envelope In Your Pants

It's a replica of the UK system, thus, our society will replicate theirs. The poverty outside of central London is just like the poverty outside of South County Dublin. Can you stand for president? Or do you need to be chosen by already self-elected politicians, who transfer votes to themselves during elections by the nature of our system itself. The entire system - Dail, President, senators, TDs, everything, needs to be thrown out.


- A very small group of people actually fought for independence. The reality is that it was only allowed as long as the UK could retain a military presence to prevent hostile powers like Germany at the beginning of the century taking over the Republic and creating a significant threat to Britain.

Ireland is a tribal country, and our government is an kleptocratic-style financial administration which centralises wealth at the expense of the actual cultures within. There is nothing democratic about it.

Ireland will only "work" as a consensus driven community between politically independent counties or provinces much like a combination of the Dutch system and Swiss confederations (26 cantons, 8 million people). Libya had a much more accesible direct democracy that functioned until it was replaced after the 6 months war by the US, UK and France.

irishh_bob

jeffwode wrote: »

I think Ireland leaving the euro zone is almost a foregone conclusion at this point. We'll be out, as will Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and probably France too. The euro will likely continue to be used as the currency of Germany, Luxembourg (with all its banking business) the Netherlands and maybe one or two more, but we'll be out. When we're forced out (it'll be presented as a move we made of our own volition) it'll be very messy for a while. The punt will probably settle at about 60 - 70% of the euro value when the markets get hold of it following its reintroduction at a rate of 1 : 1 with the euro.

When things settle down here, it will ultimately be good for Irish farming. Imports will be outrageously expensive so no one will be importing food. Exports will be significantly cheaper so demand will rise and revenues will start to climb. Fertiliser, equipment and fuel will get a lot more expensive but it will settle down before too long things improve. Payments from Europe will still be in euro so they'll be more valuable when converted to punts although I wouldn't rule out the government finding some way to snaffle the increase.

farmers might have to consider importing tractors from china as a way of making up for the weaker currency

pakalasa

I find it very hard to believe that the Euro will break up. Remember that German Banks are owed a lot of money by other countries. If the Euro fails it would hit the Germans hard too. Germans have a lot of wealth sitting in their pensions, so it's in their interest to keep the people that owe them money in the same currency as them. The reality is that we are all in this mess together.
If Ireland were to be leave, then the reality of where we are as a country would soon hit home. When you think about it, what industry do we have. Apart from our bloated civil service, a dead construction industry, what have you got?
As for farming, it would probably be good in that exports would be worth more. Maybe those BB weanlings might be worth even more.:D

irishh_bob

n900guy wrote: »

I disagree one a few points there:

- we have a parliamentary government, which is definitely not a democracy in how it's casually thought of. There is no consensus on political decisions, and massive centralisation of income towards Dublin, leaving much the country in a shambles of boozed up beliefs of representation. The reality is that our political parties pick and choose who is present based on the following democratic principles of:

a) You Scratch My Back, and
b) Is That A Brown Envelope In Your Pants

It's a replica of the UK system, thus, our society will replicate theirs. The poverty outside of central London is just like the poverty outside of South County Dublin. Can you stand for president? Or do you need to be chosen by already self-elected politicians, who transfer votes to themselves during elections by the nature of our system itself. The entire system - Dail, President, senators, TDs, everything, needs to be thrown out.


- A very small group of people actually fought for independence. The reality is that it was only allowed as long as the UK could retain a military presence to prevent hostile powers like Germany at the beginning of the century taking over the Republic and creating a significant threat to Britain.

Ireland is a tribal country, and our government is an kleptocratic-style financial administration which centralises wealth at the expense of the actual cultures within. There is nothing democratic about it.

Ireland will only "work" as a consensus driven community between politically independent counties or provinces much like a combination of the Dutch system and Swiss confederations (26 cantons, 8 million people). Libya had a much more accesible direct democracy that functioned until it was replaced after the 6 months war by the US, UK and France.

i dont really want to get into that on this thread but i agree that democrocy is too centralised in ireland , local goverment is pittifully weak compared to the likes of the usa

fodda

n900guy wrote: »

I


- A very small group of people actually fought for independence. The reality is that it was only allowed as long as the UK could retain a military presence to prevent hostile powers like Germany at the beginning of the century taking over the Republic and creating a significant threat to Britain.

Germany was not a hostile country when Ireland had independance. Germany had been defeated by the allies and disarmed (forever.....or so they thought) at this time and there was no threat to the UK or anybody else from basically anybody.

blue5000

irishh_bob wrote: »

you picked up the tab for german , french , british and american sean quinns when the bondholders were saved in 2008 , i happen to think brian lennehan was under serious pressure from merkel , sarkozy etc not to bring the whole thing down , all the banks in europe are interconnnected

as for public sector wages , such levels could never have been reached were it not for the temporary property boom and the huge revenues it generated but as moore mc dowell often says , its easy to give a dog a bone than take it back

Bob you forgot to mention the russian mafia bond holders, imo thats where the real pressure came from:(

irishh_bob

pakalasa wrote: »

I find it very hard to believe that the Euro will break up. Remember that German Banks are owed a lot of money by other countries. If the Euro fails it would hit the Germans hard too. Germans have a lot of wealth sitting in their pensions, so it's in their interest to keep the people that owe them money in the same currency as them. The reality is that we are all in this mess together.
If Ireland were to be leave, then the reality of where we are as a country would soon hit home. When you think about it, what industry do we have. Apart from our bloated civil service, a dead construction industry, what have you got?
As for farming, it would probably be good in that exports would be worth more. Maybe those BB weanlings might be worth even more.:D

germany has as much if not more than anyone to loose from a euro break up

as for our industry in the event of a single currency exit , it would improove as we would be more competitive from a wage level point of view , that and a weaker currency

irishh_bob

blue5000 wrote: »

Bob you forgot to mention the russian mafia bond holders, imo thats where the real pressure came from:(

more like the wall st and city of london mafia

Tipp Man

pakalasa wrote: »

I find it very hard to believe that the Euro will break up. Remember that German Banks are owed a lot of money by other countries. If the Euro fails it would hit the Germans hard too. Germans have a lot of wealth sitting in their pensions, so it's in their interest to keep the people that owe them money in the same currency as them. The reality is that we are all in this mess together.
If Ireland were to be leave, then the reality of where we are as a country would soon hit home. When you think about it, what industry do we have. Apart from our bloated civil service, a dead construction industry, what have you got?
As for farming, it would probably be good in that exports would be worth more. Maybe those BB weanlings might be worth even more.:D

Well said - find myself in agreement with everything you have said

Tipp Man

Just a point of note.

It's easy say burn the bondholders and think thats great, the bloody German banks will pay for it. In reality a lot of the bondholders were Irish pension funds - my own pension had Irish bank bonds, as I'm sure thousands of other have. So if/when the bondholders are burned then it is not just the German banks that loose out, but Irish citizens as well

I have yet to see any evidence that the evil bondholders were German or French banks in any large number (they obviously had some exposure) and there is no evidence to suggest that had we burned the bondholders that it would have had any serious effect on German and French banks.

There is a lot of evidence that the German and French banks in particular are highly exposed to the Greek sovereign debt but thats a different story

mattthetrasher

al sounds good we regain control of our own destiny and not be a remote out station of brussels what would happen our interest rates though?

redzerologhlen

mattthetrasher wrote: »

al sounds good we regain control of our own destiny

Sounds good in fairness but in reality I would imagine a few very tuff years before things would be any way good.

irishh_bob

Tipp Man wrote: »

Just a point of note.

It's easy say burn the bondholders and think thats great, the bloody German banks will pay for it. In reality a lot of the bondholders were Irish pension funds - my own pension had Irish bank bonds, as I'm sure thousands of other have. So if/when the bondholders are burned then it is not just the German banks that loose out, but Irish citizens as well

I have yet to see any evidence that the evil bondholders were German or French banks in any large number (they obviously had some exposure) and there is no evidence to suggest that had we burned the bondholders that it would have had any serious effect on German and French banks.

There is a lot of evidence that the German and French banks in particular are highly exposed to the Greek sovereign debt but thats a different story

you invested in bonds as part of a pension plan

warning , investments can go up or down

sea12

Tipp Man wrote: »

Just a point of note.

It's easy say burn the bondholders and think thats great, the bloody German banks will pay for it. In reality a lot of the bondholders were Irish pension funds - my own pension had Irish bank bonds, as I'm sure thousands of other have. So if/when the bondholders are burned then it is not just the German banks that loose out, but Irish citizens as well

I have yet to see any evidence that the evil bondholders were German or French banks in any large number (they obviously had some exposure) and there is no evidence to suggest that had we burned the bondholders that it would have had any serious effect on German and French banks.

There is a lot of evidence that the German and French banks in particular are highly exposed to the Greek sovereign debt but thats a different story

Hi This link is a good way f showing what country owes what!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

djmc

sea12 wrote: »

Hi This link is a good way f showing what country owes what!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

That link is f***ing crazy I didnt think think we owed 390k per person 10 times more than greece

moy83

I see the UK owes us nearly as much as we owe them . How the feck is that ?

Tipp Man

irishh_bob wrote: »

you invested in bonds as part of a pension plan

warning , investments can go up or down

Of course, I'm merely highlighting that it's not all about the European banks

Irish people would lose a lot as well

Tipp Man

sea12 wrote: »

Hi This link is a good way f showing what country owes what!


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-15748696

I could be wrong but doesn't that include debts by IFSC institutions which have no effect on Ireland??

I don't think it's just sovereign or Irish banking debt

pakalasa

Irish Debt

....It shows a very high level of gross foreign debt to GDP because, although it is a small country, it has a large financial sector - including a big overseas presence......

From the above link.