The Football / Soccer Tips Thread v2

MoscowFlyer

Cheltenham/Barnet Ov 11 corners looks like a good bet @ 1.900.

Both teams scoring in the Crawley/Crewe game @ 4/6

Dag & Red winning against Burton @ 10/11

awhir

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Going big on this double:
Dinamo Tbilisi (Georgian league)
Gyor (Hugarian league)
@ 2.16

if that double doesn't come in, I think I'll take a short break from betting, I've been losing too much lately

any reason why you picked those 2 ?

seanhynes

shangri la wrote: »

got on this with ladbrokes at 13/8, how there hasn't been a goal yet I don't know.

shop around.

only av a 365 acc,wouldnt bet with them crooks but thats for once a good price,365 are awful at times at pricing things up

Alaska1

Matter of the time before Reading score I reckon, 4/11 now with PP at ht, need to bet big I guess.

Lasagna Diarra

awhir wrote: »

any reason why you picked those 2 ?

Dinamo Tbilisi - simply coz the odds have dropped from 2.20 to 1.80 and Gyor (2nd) have 4 wins in their last 5 games and their opponents (12th) have a poor record away from home

seanhynes

Alaska1 wrote: »

Matter of the time before Reading score I reckon, 4/11 now with PP at ht, need to bet big I guess.

Leeds have stopped the onslaught and made it scrappy the last 15-20. that -11 corners seems the best bet this half,should be all reading

shangri la

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Going big on this double:
Dinamo Tbilisi (Georgian league)
Gyor (Hugarian league)
@ 2.16

if that double doesn't come in, I think I'll take a short break from betting, I've been losing too much lately

to be fair there are obvious problems with the leagues I have seen you betting lately.

1. The overall standard is poor which leads to more "surprises".

2. The players earn significantly less than bettors are willing to pay them to alter the result.

3. You are doing doubles and trebles... much higher variance obviously. If you get the value point wrong you end up paying a huge overround.

4. Are you getting reliable team news/injuries from the games like the one in the Kazak league? did you even know the starting 22 before placing your bet? Do you know who the top scorer is for the team you backed in that bet? Did he play? Arsenal without Van Persie and all that...

5. Is the only research you are doing having a quick look at the league table and the results of a last 4 or 5 games? Nobody makes a profit long term with basic research like that and the bookies take that and more into consideration when making their prices.



You definitely need to look outside of england if you want to make this game pay but you need to learn to work excel and get a range of stats to properly evaluate a bet and those sort of stats are not available anywhere I have ever looked for the kazak league.

Copper_pipe

This looks decent value on ladbrokes
Newcastle to win or draw with 3 or more goals scored in the match 9/4
10 euron on it

happydayz182

10 e on Newcastle.. Think their slightly over priced at 2-1

5 er on Both teams to score in that game aswell + West ham to win double

PaddyTheNth

Copper_pipe wrote: »

This looks decent value on ladbrokes
Newcastle to win or draw with 3 or more goals scored in the match 9/4
10 euron on it

The only bet I'd be going for in this match is the Unders (2.5). Possibly Cisse FGS e/w any time also, contradictory as that sounds.

If I had to pick a winner I'd go for Swansea, but I won't.

manual_man

cheeky punt on BA first scorer 6/1. he has to find the net again. I reckon Newcastle will go at them from the off

Alaska1

Pressure on West Ham now too, took em -1 at 15/8

Newcastle, 2/1 had a nibble at that and a few quid on Ba anytime goalscorer at 15/8

Alaska1

manual_man wrote: »

cheeky punt on BA first scorer 6/1. he has to find the net again. I reckon Newcastle will go at them from the off

Went with it myself, the old cliche, 'he is due a goal'

Lasagna Diarra

shangri la wrote: »

to be fair there are obvious problems with the leagues I have seen you betting lately.

1. The overall standard is poor which leads to more "surprises".

2. The players earn significantly less than bettors are willing to pay them to alter the result.

3. You are doing doubles and trebles... much higher variance obviously. If you get the value point wrong you end up paying a huge overround.

4. Are you getting reliable team news/injuries from the games like the one in the Kazak league? did you even know the starting 22 before placing your bet? Do you know who the top scorer is for the team you backed in that bet? Did he play? Arsenal without Van Persie and all that...

5. Is the only research you are doing having a quick look at the league table and the results of a last 4 or 5 games? Nobody makes a profit long term with basic research like that and the bookies take that and more into consideration when making their prices.



You definitely need to look outside of england if you want to make this game pay but you need to learn to work excel and get a range of stats to properly evaluate a bet and those sort of stats are not available anywhere I have ever looked for the kazak league.

What I like about the smaller leagues is that, yes, the overall standard is quite poor, but they're usually very predictable, there are usually one or two teams that dominate the league and win most of their games, like Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia, Flora in Estonia, Sheriff & Dacia in Moldova etc, and when you put 4 or 5 of those teams in an accum, you can easily get odds of ~2.00 and you win most of the time.

I know I recently lost bets on the Lithuanian and Kazakh leagues, for example, but I think it's coz it was the beginning of the season and there are usually a few upsets in the first few rounds.

I tend to pay attention to the odds more than current form, coz what we do for fun here -predicting the outcome of a game- traders do it for a living so for example when I see Real Madrid -1 vs Rayo @ 2.30, instead of being like "oh that's great value" I try to understand why the odds are so high - do Rayo usually do well against the big teams? head to head stats? etc and I try to bet accordingly.

Lasagna Diarra

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

Going big on this double:
Dinamo Tbilisi (Georgian league) 1-1 :mad:
Gyor (Hugarian league)
@ 2.16

if that double doesn't come in, I think I'll take a short break from betting, I've been losing too much lately

time for a break then...

shangri la

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

What I like about the smaller leagues is that, yes, the overall standard is quite poor, but they're usually very predictable, there are usually one or two teams that dominate the league and win most of their games, like Dinamo Zagreb in Croatia, Flora in Estonia, Sheriff & Dacia in Moldova etc, and when you put 4 or 5 of those teams in an accum, you can easily get odds of ~2.00 and you win most of the time.

Those games almost never have value against the minnows of these leagues. A 4 or 5 game acc involving teams like that would have an outrageous overround, in other words you lose your bollox over the season.

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I know I recently lost bets on the Lithuanian and Kazakh leagues, for example, but I think it's coz it was the beginning of the season and there are usually a few upsets in the first few rounds.

that just excusing a bad bet.

Lasagna Diarra wrote: »

I tend to pay attention to the odds more than current form, coz what we do for fun here -predicting the outcome of a game- traders do it for a living so for example when I see Real Madrid -1 vs Rayo @ 2.30, instead of being like "oh that's great value" I try to understand why the odds are so high - do Rayo usually do well against the big teams? head to head stats? etc and I try to bet accordingly.

how do you go about understanding this?

Statistical analysis?
Injuries?
Team formation and statistics?
Pitch size and surface?
european games?
team motivation?

the obvious thing with rayo is that they have a much small pitch than real and can neutralise their wide play more effectively which is all the talk in the primera division this year which is why you picked that matchup I assume.

What are the strenghts and weaknesses of the kazak team you backed.... over the season luck evens out.

MoscowFlyer

MoscowFlyer wrote: »

Cheltenham/Barnet Ov 11 corners looks like a good bet @ 1.900.

Both teams scoring in the Crawley/Crewe game @ 4/6

Dag & Red winning against Burton @ 10/11

2 for 3 and well the Reading corner bet at HT means it's been a profitable day

seanhynes

any backing the league of Ireland later? fancy over 3.5 in Derry v UCD & overs in Sligo v Bray games,anybody any good shouts?

Lasagna Diarra

shangri la wrote: »

how do you go about understanding this?

Statistical analysis?
Injuries?
Team formation and statistics?
Pitch size and surface?
european games?
team motivation?

the obvious thing with rayo is that they have a much small pitch than real and can neutralise their wide play more effectively which is all the talk in the primera division this year which is why you picked that matchup I assume.

What are the strenghts and weaknesses of the kazak team you backed.... over the season luck evens out.

Yea injuries, more important games coming up, results against similar teams etc In the example of the Rayo v Real game, Real Madrid hadn't scored too many goals away from home and I had read that Mourinho said it would be pretty difficult to play on such a small pitch so under 2.5 looked like a good bet.

To be fair, everything pointed to a victory for that Kazakh team, they had won their first 3 games, 2 of which were against strong teams by Kazakh standards, they'd scored 9 goals in 3 games, while their opponents had 2 losses in 3 games (one of which was against a promoted team), and they had conceded 8 goals in 3 games, but then it finished 0-0

Alaska1

seanhynes wrote: »

any backing the league of Ireland later? fancy over 3.5 in Derry v UCD & overs in Sligo v Bray games,anybody any good shouts?

Drogheda are evns to beat Monaghan up there later, Drogs have started the season well.

ben.schlomo

Alaska1 wrote: »

Drogheda are evns to beat Monaghan up there later, Drogs have started the season well.

Monagahan have been quite hard to beat at the same time. I like Waterford at Mervue who are still missing a good few players. Limerick should be too strong for Longfrod who failed to beat STD lastweek, the two of them with Derry/UCD over 2.5 pays 5.7.

seanhynes

i think UCD have covered over 3.5 in every lge game so far,are always involved in entertaining games,im goina chance a single on that

Hamadeusentman

Hamadeusentman wrote: »

I like the look of Newcastle to score 2 or more. 17/10. Think I'll put a score on.

Get in!

user2011

user2011 wrote: »

Over 3.5 in Watford v Blackpool @ 2/1. This has come in 7 of Watfords home games and 14 of Blackpools away games.

Not even close over 2.5 didnt get across the line 0-2

shocksy

€4 single on UCD to score 2 or more goals against Derry City @ 9/2

madma

good friday is goooood

Newcastle DNB @2.3 = €130 profit

Hamadeusentman

And fair play to all those who backed the Toon.

mailburner

was some price on newc in fairness
great start to the weekend
all downhill from here

madma

in fairness swansea were dominant for large parts of the game but lack that cutting edge, the price was great for DNB. the reason i did the bet is cos swansea are safe now not much to play for while newcastle are chasing champions league 4th place

magherakid

Treble
St Pats v Shamrock Rovs BTTS 6/5
Finn Harps 4/6
Waterford Evs