Increasingly cold this week - frost widespread, risk of snow

Rebelbrowser

darkman2 wrote: »

Thanks for reopening the thread.:)


Thursday night, Friday and Saturday potentially the northern half of the country roughly from Wicklow across to Galway are at risk of heavy snow showers and accumulations of snow (and higher parts of the South on Thursday). The showers will be heavier and more frequent the further North you are. The South coast may escape but that is not certain yet. I will post charts later once the 12z runs are finished.

To my untrained eye the 12z GFS is looking very promising in the short and longer term (though not finished yet..)


......though now the run is over I think I'm very much wrong longer term.

darkman2

I promised to put up and explain the charts but as it happens I don't have the time.


But very promising for Thursday night, Friday and potentially Saturday. Cracking ECM tonight for these days in terms of potential for snow, ice and some frost. ECM hinting at perhaps more prolonged and widespread snow on Saturday for a time. It also keeps us in a very cold grip for longer. UKMO not too bad either. Looking good for this period especially in the Northern half of the country.


I'm outta here - back in a couple of days!:)

Harps

Yeah the GFS has given up on the high after the weekend and is now more in line with the ECM, should be an interesting few days again from Thursday through Saturday with a very windy day Thursday followed by another brief blast of cold weather

Musicman2000

Zonal and more zonal on the models its good for snow lovers in the north and west and on very high ground elsewhere, but those of us in the east are not going to see much at all. Fingers crossed the Polar vortex will break up in the new year and we can get some decent blocking.

pauldry

I was thinking it looks cold for the end of the week and then someone said to close the thread.

Also was thinking the worst of the snow had gone and got caught in a sleety blizzard driving home and nearly skidded into a ditch.

Things are only going to get worse..or better if you love snow.

The North will get most it but we deserve it coz we got all the cold and rain in Summer so I was thinking then if this pattern continues to the Winter we might just see some more snow.

Mountains in sligo had snow on them today but below 100m asl not a lot at all

Forum Monkey

I heard the snow should be covering the country by Friday! Hopefully Meath will get covered before then!

Su Campu

Forum Monkey wrote: »

I heard the snow should be covering the country by Friday!

Where did you hear this?

Mayo_Boy

Come on the weshhtt!

Forum Monkey

Su Campu wrote: »

Where did you hear this?

Met Eireann said it a day or two ago. when do you think the country will get covered?

Su Campu

Forum Monkey wrote: »

Met Eireann said it a day or two ago. when do you think the country will get covered?

Sure they did.

No signs of the country getting covered. Nobody - even darkman! - said it would!

Iancar29

Jean just gave a statement for " increasingly wintry showers from ARTIC air THURSDAY onwards "

Very shocked i was to hear such a statement , for BOTH reasons! ha

thetonynator

I've noticed myself that met eireann have turned into a shower of rampers this week! It's great! Previously, the best we would have heard is ''wintry precipitation'' with ''hail and sleet on high ground'' instead of last nights ''widespread snow'' and todays ''artic air''.

Long may it last!

StormGazer.11

Ok Met Eireann tend to play on the safe side but are we really in store for anything interesting in the coming days outside of the North and NW because according to themselves it's going to be windy, possible clear sunny spells with some showers thrown in for good measures, temps ranging between 3 to 9-ish... All sounds pretty average to me!

Su Campu

Iancar29 wrote: »

Jean just gave a statement for " increasingly wintry showers from ARTIC air THURSDAY onwards "

Very shocked i was to hear such a statement , for BOTH reasons! ha

I'd say she said Arctic air as it will be more from a northerly direction.

It looks like a glancing 18-hour blow of cold like the past 24 hours during Friday, with hail, sleet and snow showers making their way further south in the strong northerly. 850 temp may be a degree or so less than today, but thicknesses look around the same. Slightly lower theta-w and theta-e values will probably mean snowline around 50-100 m, but again, with the strong winds, we will see some brief flurries to lowest levels. But I would still not go for a sea-level snowline, meaning I think precipitation at sea-level will be mostly sleety, with as I said the odd brief snowy flurry.

It looks shortlived, with warmer air moving into the west Friday evening and night, and with winds easing as pressure rises through the weekend, more modification will take place in the boundary layer, so showers along the Atlantic coasts will become lighter and increasingly rainy, with the snowline rising.

Musicman2000

thetonynator wrote: »

I've noticed myself that met eireann have turned into a shower of rampers this week! It's great! Previously, the best we would have heard is ''wintry precipitation'' with ''hail and sleet on high ground'' instead of last nights ''widespread snow'' and todays ''artic air''.

Long may it last!

If it dose happen it will be very short lived, The gfs 18z is not looking good at all

nacho libre

StormGazer.11 wrote: »

Ok Met Eireann tend to play on the safe side but are we really in store for anything interesting in the coming days outside of the North and NW because according to themselves it's going to be windy, possible clear sunny spells with some showers thrown in for good measures, temps ranging between 3 to 9-ish... All sounds pretty average to me!

yes. it looks like for the time being we'll alternate between brief cold snaps and somewhat milder spells. no sign of sustained cold, accompanied by powdery snow anytime soon.

irish1967

Does anyone think ME may have reviewed and changed their forecast policy this winter ? Is better to be wrong about bad weather or to be caught out once in a while if they play down the possibility of bad weather.

thetonynator

irish1967 wrote: »

Does anyone think ME may have reviewed and changed their forecast policy this winter ? Is better to be wrong about bad weather or to be caught out once in a while if they play down the possibility of bad weather.

Well they weren't wrong this time, so this method would therefore be better. In the past they have downplayed every wintry event, so maybe it's a good thing that they aren't being quite so conservative?!

nacho libre

irish1967 wrote: »

Does anyone think ME may have reviewed and changed their forecast policy this winter ? Is better to be wrong about bad weather or to be caught out once in a while if they play down the possibility of bad weather.

Always better to overplay it, even if that risks people being blase about forecasts; people tend to remember if an event is under played, but then if it turns out to be noteworthy such a mistake is not forgotten.

The 1987 storm attests to that.

eskimocat

I reckon that since there is a nice wee stash of salt available, they can risk going for the juicer reports! less likely hood of panic... I, for one (lord knows maybe the only one) approve of a bit of a ramp being built every now and again... oh yes, this good girl has a bad side....

I feel the need, the need for speed snow!!

patneve2

One of the lessons that this "cold snap" has taught us is that a positive AO does not necessarily mean "no chance of cold weather"...it is simply an index among manyyy other indexes...

Oscar Bravo

Even Gerry Murphy gave extra locations from the useual ones on the "Latest Reports" on the late night forecast including Sherkin Islands and Mace Head and he finished with Belmullet instead of Dublin Airport.Also mentioned the risk of Storm force Gusts later tomorrow in the North.

konman

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Even Gerry Murphy gave extra locations from the useual ones on the "Latest Reports" on the late night forecast including Sherkin Islands and Mace Head and he finished with Belmullet instead of Dublin Airport.Also mentioned the risk of Storm force Gusts later tomorrow in the North.

Just after seeing that there on the models. Tuesday night into wednesday midday from what my untrained eyes are seeing.
On 18z GFS run thursday looks worse for north-west. Isobars are a lot tighter. Sorry I know its off topic.

john t

baltic cold in swords dublin airport tonite.. no snow no ground frost at 12.30am, car windows ok... but it cold...

davidsr20

Has it actually snowed anywhere today or tonight or is this dead at this stage?

mountainy man

davidsr20 wrote: »

Has it actually snowed anywhere today or tonight or is this dead at this stage?

last snow shower was at 16.30 nothing since but a bit of graupel.

Harps

Some wet snow here all night but nothing worth keeping an eye on, melts as soon as it hits the ground. Windy and milder for the next few days then another colder spell on Thursday and Friday

hotwhiskey

davidsr20 wrote: »

Has it actually snowed anywhere today or tonight or is this dead at this stage?

Driving this morning last snow shower at 5.45, back roads icy in places black ice a problem you hit a patch and your heart forgets to beat.

I didn't get time to mention yesterday but with all the cutbacks and all beware of ice on Mondays because i know that Cavan County Council for one are not paying for overtime so roads will not be gritted the weekends.

Last year we had no money to pay for the salt this year plenty of salt (So they say but i heard some inside information;)) and this year no money to pay the workers. Fantastic!!!

hawkwing

"There'll be a sharp frost on Friday night. Saturday will be cold and mostly dry. But rain will spread from the west on Saturday night with a high probability of snow overnight and some significant accumulations possible. Further wintry showers following on Sunday. " http://www.met.ie/forecasts/ Not too much detail as to where exactly yet and subject to change but interesting..

popflop

Very icy on the roads this morning. So icy that infact the translink buses have been canceled!

hooray no college!