Buy in 2012 or 2013

P. Breathnach

Treehouse72 wrote: »

And if I keep insisting the earth is round will I eventually be proven wrong?

It was inevitable the bubble cheerleaders would eventually be proven wrong because they were wrong all along. One more time: they were wrong all along. There was no point at which they were right. You seem to be labouring under the illusion that they were right for a long time, but then something changed and one morning they woke up and were suddenly wrong.

Do you still not understand all this stuff? Still? Come on.

I suggest that you do not disparage my intelligence. It's bad manners.

Those who talked up house price during the bubble years were right for a time: prices rose.

shangri la

Those who talked up prices during the boom have no idea of economic cycles

robd

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Are you trying to make me feel bad by using the methods of a playground bully? That's not a constructive way to conduct a discussion.

One of the worst forms of bullying is the person who stands up and shouts "bully" when they're simply being told the truth and they don't like it. Please don't accuse me of being a bully for stating the facts.

P. Breathnach

shangri la wrote: »

Those who talked up prices during the boom have no idea of economic cycles

Most people don't think much about economic cycles. I think we should take that as a given.

But what happened in the housing market was much more than the effects of the upswing of an economic cycle.

Treehouse72

P. Breathnach wrote: »

I suggest that you do not disparage my intelligence. It's bad manners.

You are here debating and I am here debating. We are big boys and girls. So please don't give me this righteous indignation/moral blackmail nonsense. I will say whatever I like to you within site rules. If you don't like it, argue back or don't debate. The moderators are well capable of sorting out the rest. Ok?

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Those who talked up house price during the bubble years were right for a time: prices rose.

The argument of the bubble cheerleaders was not that prices would rise "for a time". It was that we were in a new paradigm. If you don't understand this then you don't understand the nature of the bubble.

daltonmd

robd wrote: »

It's not impossible. I'm not saying it's easy or obvious but if you take an objective approach rather than subjective it's doable.

You can analyses the data from Ireland and other countries going back years. You can see where we're out now viz-a-viz long term trends. You can look at where take home pay and disposable income is going over the next three years and draw conclusions.

You need a basis for a recovery. Like growing GDP/GNP, decreasing unemployment, and wage inflation.

Yes there'll likely be people who are still arguing down when it turns around but seriously we've a while to go yet.

Agree, and by a while I would say at least 5 years.
If you look back in the 80's/90's when house prices increased we never had lower than 4% interest rates, in some years it was up to 18%, but yet in 1996 house prices increased by about 30% - the fundamentals in the economy were completely different.
We had a solid manufacturing base, strong exports - we really took our eye off that ball and instead we opted to buy and sell property to and from each other.
We had falling unemployment, falling taxes, falling interest rates, incomes were rising, more women were coming into the workplace, meaning more double income households, attractive incentives to buy.
Ireland started to attract foreign workers.
Investors bailed out of this country prior to 2006,professional landlords offloaded property, banks sold their buildings for massive money and leased them.


What do we have now?

3 more austerity budgets, more taxes and levies, VAT rise (reports of supermarkets stating they will absorb the rise, sure they will!! I think they mean their suppliers will and this will lead to more companies going to the wall).

Mass emigration - and it's our young people, or FTB;s as they were commonly called way back when that are leaving in droves.

Lower disposable income and rising costs of property ownership do not a normal house market make.

Huge levels of personal debt, a mortgage crisis of epic proportions.

An arrogant banking sector, an incompetent government with no plan A let alone a plan B - no joined up thinking, simply carrying the rod for the last pack of dimwits that sadly pontificate now from the opposition benches.

What has this government done? tax, cuts, slash - but not burn.....

We are in for a sh!*storm of huge proportions. It's like that game where you take turns to lift an item off the donkey or take a peg out of the pile - one more straw and that's it game over.


What straw will it be?



Daltonmd

The_Conductor

Guys- I try to moderate here with as light a touch as possible. The central tenent to my moderating is a golden rule- 'If you disagree with what someone posts, refute the post, without attacking the poster'. Its really not that difficult to remain civil towards one another. Less of the bickering and snide comments please- or totally regardless of the relative merits of whatever argument you are putting forward- you will receive a little holiday from posting in this forum.

Regards,

SMcCarrick

Treehouse72

Apologies. I'll give it a rest now.

davet82

Idbatterim wrote: »

when the morgage relief goes, it will further lower prices... what time of property do you intend to buy op, where is it located and what is the asking price?

3 bed semi-detached, blanchardstown, 150k

seems good to me?

robd

davet82 wrote: »

3 bed semi-detached, blanchardstown, 150k

seems good to me?

That's seems good value alright on first glance.

However the there's a humongous differential for 3 bed semi-d's between different areas around Dublin. Better areas are approx twice that (300k) and more which seems nuts. 4 beds in better areas are 600-750k which beggars belief given average wages.

Also long term average house prices are more like 100k in 2011 prices. 3 bed in Blanch should represent average Dublin which indeed is probably dearer than rest of country but not 50% greater. 120k might be a more realistic long term average for Dublin.

Snakeblood

robd wrote: »

That's seems good value alright on first glance.

However the there's a humongous differential for 3 bed semi-d's between different areas around Dublin. Better areas are approx twice that (300k) and more which seems nuts. 4 beds in better areas are 600-750k which beggars belief given average wages.

Also long term average house prices are more like 100k in 2011 prices. 3 bed in Blanch should represent average Dublin which indeed is probably dearer than rest of country but not 50% greater. 120k might be a more realistic long term average for Dublin.

The bizarre thing is how many areas are 'better' areas. Most places on the southside barring Tallaght and its environs seem wildly overpriced still.

robd

Snakeblood wrote: »

The bizarre thing is how many areas are 'better' areas. Most places on the southside barring Tallaght and its environs seem wildly overpriced still.

Too true, too true.

Idbatterim

just took quick browse of blanch properties there at around 150k mark, the below seemed pretty decent i thought...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/18-ashfield-way-clonsilla-dublin-15/1569825

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/28-ashfield-grove-clonsilla-dublin-15/1403835

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/43-huntstown-drive-blanchardstown/1739635

The equivalent properties where i live in churchtown would be asking 2.5 times those prices Id guesstimate...

http://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/3-whitestown-drive-blanchardstown-dublin-15/342319

the above is intersting, would like to see a floor plan!

Dont know much about blacn area though, I think you can tell from the Asking Price which sellers are more desperate to sell or more realistic about what they will achieve!

foxy06

House prices fallen again last month. I for one will be waiting for the month that they stop falling before I even start looking at houses.

domcq

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/cso-house-prices-fall-faster-in-november-532913.html

Will be holding off for some time also.

davet82

seems there is more 'bottoming out' to go...

i just wonder how much lower can prices go, if houses in Dublin are 52% cheaper than they were at the boom peak, at what % would you buy?

I'm interested in peoples expectations of the bottom?

Snakeblood

davet82 wrote: »

seems there is more 'bottoming out' to go...

i just wonder how much lower can prices go, if houses in Dublin are 52% cheaper than they were at the boom peak, at what % would you buy?

I'm interested in peoples expectations of the bottom?

I think Morgan Kelly predicted an 80% drop. I dunno if I'd go that far, but I think house prices increased about 400% since what I'd hold to be the start of the bubble, so them dropping 50% still leaves them massively overpriced considering the dwindling of buyers, lack of credit, economic doldrums, increased taxation etc.

Incidentally, the boom is what people were calling house price increases when they thought it was sustainable. The bubble is what it turned out to be.

According to the DOEI, house prices in Ireland between 1996 and 2006 went up 250% for new houses, and 334% for old ones. In Dublin, it went up 318% for new, 391% for old.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Europe/Ireland/Price-History

robd

So today it looks like the complainers about the €100 fixed household charge will get their way earlier than predicted.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1221/breaking6.html

Valuation based charge in 2013.

Under the commission’s proposed scheme a charge of €188 would be paid on houses valued at up to €150,000; €563 on houses between €150,000 and €300,000; €938 on houses up to €450,000; €1,313 on houses valued at up to €600,000; €1,699 on houses up to €750,000; €2,188 on houses valued at up to €1 million; €3,125 on houses up to €1.5 million and 0.25 per cent of the valuation on houses over that.

Seems a terrible idea (from an income raising perspective) to me to use a property valuation as quickly crash the market and hence tax base. From a buyers view this is great though.

The leafier suburbs of Dublin, which still have extremely high bubblishish prices, are likely to be disproportionately affected by this. In other words they'll finally crash like the rest of the market.

This to me is a clear indication that 2012 is a very bad year to buy.

Zamboni

robd wrote: »

So today it looks like the complainers about the €100 fixed household charge will get their way earlier than predicted.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1221/breaking6.html

Valuation based charge in 2013.



Seems a terrible idea (from an income raising perspective) to me to use a property valuation as quickly crash the market and hence tax base. From a buyers view this is great though.

The leafier suburbs of Dublin, which still have extremely high bubblishish prices, are likely to be disproportionately affected by this. In other words they'll finally crash like the rest of the market.

This to me is a clear indication that 2012 is a very bad year to buy.

A valuation based charge is hilarious!
The Commission for taxation should be ashamed of themselves.

Fine Gael deputy for Donegal North East Joe McHugh said this morning the new system would take into account people’s ability to pay. "There are people living in houses that are of high value but simply cannot pay. That needs to be taken into account. We need to have a fair and equitable system that is not just based on valuations."

This is a disgrace.
People cannot pay because they are financial fvckwits.
So the prudent little guy in the little house can cover the costs for these morons in their bigger houses too.

robd

Zamboni wrote: »

A valuation based charge is hilarious!
The Commission for taxation should be ashamed of themselves.

I agree. Sound more like a vested interest group than a commission.

Zamboni wrote: »

This is a disgrace.
People cannot pay because they are financial fvckwits.
So the prudent little guy in the little house can cover the costs for these morons in their bigger houses too.

Strongly agree. This is the mentality that needs to change in Ireland. I agree with a basic right to be housed. Living in a house beyond your means that you can't afford to pay the charges on is ridiculous.

Snakeblood

robd wrote: »

I agree. Sound more like a vested interest group than a commission.



Strongly agree. This is the mentality that needs to change in Ireland. I agree with a basic right to be housed. Living in a house beyond your means that you can't afford to pay the charges on is ridiculous.

I think their issue is that they aren't allowed sell it either, and 12 years of bankruptcy would suck balls.

robd

Snakeblood wrote: »

I think their issue is that they aren't allowed sell it either, and 12 years of bankruptcy would suck balls.

I think you've mis-interpreted my angle. I'm more referring to OAP's who own their houses, often much bigger than todays new builds. I disagree with a free pass from taxes for people in this situation, just cause of low current income (but good property wealth). They should trade down to a smaller cheaper place.

Snakeblood

robd wrote: »

I think you've mis-interpreted my angle. I'm more referring to OAP's who own their houses, often much bigger than todays new builds. I disagree with a free pass from taxes for people in this situation, just cause of low current income (but good property wealth). They should trade down to a smaller cheaper place.

Oh definitely.

The_Conductor

By the way- the property based valuation is only half the proposal- the other element is based on the square footage of the property. It was being discussed on Drive on RTE1 this evening. They are intent that they are not going to end up with purely a Dublin based tax like the last time round.

The only people who look likely to cheer the proposals are owners of small worthless shoebox apartments- who look likely to universally fall into the 180-240 bracket.

The other part of this being discussed- was the manner in which Ireland differs from the rest of the world. Elsewhere- the size and value of a property are a good indicator of the income in the house- in Ireland, its not. We have thousands of people living in 2000 square foot + properties on MIS, and conversely, many professional people renting small apartments........

They are going to need to explore this a lot more- the blunt instruments currently on the table do not seem to up to the prescribed task.......

daltonmd

robd wrote: »

So today it looks like the complainers about the €100 fixed household charge will get their way earlier than predicted.

http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2011/1221/breaking6.html

Valuation based charge in 2013.



Seems a terrible idea (from an income raising perspective) to me to use a property valuation as quickly crash the market and hence tax base. From a buyers view this is great though.

The leafier suburbs of Dublin, which still have extremely high bubblishish prices, are likely to be disproportionately affected by this. In other words they'll finally crash like the rest of the market.

This to me is a clear indication that 2012 is a very bad year to buy.

Isn't it gas Rob to hear Happy Gilmore the other day, when asked about the incentives in the budget to buy property. This will get the market moving said he. It's almost as if he thinks the property market is separate from the banking sector, the new property tax, rise in VAT and cuts in disposable income - we should send him and the government a join the dots kit for Xmas.

commited

robd wrote: »

Under the commission’s proposed scheme a charge of €188 would be paid on houses valued at up to €150,000; €563 on houses between €150,000 and €300,000; €938 on houses up to €450,000; €1,313 on houses valued at up to €600,000; €1,699 on houses up to €750,000; €2,188 on houses valued at up to €1 million; €3,125 on houses up to €1.5 million and 0.25 per cent of the valuation on houses over that.

The leafier suburbs of Dublin, which still have extremely high bubblishish prices, are likely to be disproportionately affected by this. In other words they'll finally crash like the rest of the market.

This to me is a clear indication that 2012 is a very bad year to buy.

I agree that the proposed system seems like a joke, I was wondering if they were going to use a size & location based system, but I suppose value should be directly proportional to this.

However, I don't see €2,188/year having a huge effect on the value of a €750,000 home as surely if you can afford to spend that much on a property, €2k is tiny money. That said, this is the country where people finance €20,000+ on a depreciating asset to save €400/year on car tax anything is possible.....

robd

commited wrote: »

I agree that the proposed system seems like a joke, I was wondering if they were going to use a size & location based system, but I suppose value should be directly proportional to this.

However, I don't see €2,188/year having a huge effect on the value of a €750,000 home as surely if you can afford to spend that much on a property, €2k is tiny money. That said, this is the country where people finance €20,000+ on a depreciating asset to save €400/year on car tax anything is possible.....

You got to remember that most houses at that price were not bought in the boom. Lots of them were bought in the 70's for circa £20,000. Owners of big houses in leafier suburbs are disproportionally older. The property boom discriminated against younger people and families.

There's a huge amount of wealth tied up in PPR's which for the last X number of years have been exempt from tax.

Ned_led16

davet82 wrote: »

I had been planning to hold out til 2013 to buy a house (also it will be the second half of 2012 before I am ready finacially to buy my first home hopefully)

Should I still wait it out for further price drops or take advantage of the last year of mortgage relief announced in the budget? How much of a saving could be made by buying and availing of the relief?

all opinions welcome

(1) Buy when prices start to rise - bearing in mind there are no external factors to suggest the markets will collapse further.

(2) When the big international property investors come back to Ireland - thats your que to invest

The large property investors sold up in 2007 - they were the ones to follow

If you can get close to the bottom your doing well - unless interest rates then rocket

Property investors look tend to look at a minimum investment period of a 20 year cycle.... so if u buy today, in 20 yrs i expect the property will be worth more... anyway you must live somewhere so does it matter if its worth 200 or 400k unless you sell up and move to a country where property is cheap

commited

robd wrote: »

You got to remember that most houses at that price were not bought in the boom. Lots of them were bought in the 70's for circa £20,000. Owners of big houses in leafier suburbs are disproportionally older. The property boom discriminated against younger people and families.

There's a huge amount of wealth tied up in PPR's which for the last X number of years have been exempt from tax.

I think you missed the point of my post. I was stating that I don't see it crashing the prices in the "leafier" suburbs.

Spiritofthekop

commited wrote: »

I think you missed the point of my post. I was stating that I don't see it crashing the prices in the "leafier" suburbs.

Huh?...It already has in "leafier" suburbs and continues too...slowly but steadily they are falling and falling.

The new property tax should speed it up a little as well.