This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

WolfeIRE

There are so many flabby LP and HP systems on the GEFS that I can only conclude that the model is struggling to get to grips with Thursday night's 'storm'. Next run please....

ninebeanrows

It is the shortwave south of Greenland that disrupts our once storm!

maquiladora

ninebeanrows

Meanwhile focus turns to tomorrow afternoon for northern areas where a very deep depression pushes close to the north coast with storm force winds and the potential for some squally wintry showers and snow in places.

Gusting to 70 knots or upto 80mph in the north.

Gusts to 60 knots or 65mph for many parts of the northern half of the country.

Storm 10

UK Met Office have a weather alert issued for next Thursday/Friday

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=4

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Interesting stuff.

I do get the feeling this isn't nailed at all yet, we could see an upgrade at some point

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Come on the NOGAPS !

Redsunset

Removed spanner from the works ha

force eleven

t|nt|n wrote: »

Come on the NOGAPS !

On another weather board, they used to disparagingly call NOGAPS 'the blonde model'... I am beginning to see why this morning

Spindle

I found the link below a good read on what to look out for when looking for Explosive Cyclogenesis, there are a few charts which show the 97 xmas eve storm as well. That was one that caught Met Eireann out as there were no advanced warnings to the public about the event.

http://www.eots.co.uk/reports/bomb/bomb01.htm

We are overdue a storm like that down here, so maybe this is the one, even if the models have gone walk about

ninebeanrows

It would appear that the idea has been pretty much dropped from the GFS EPS now with just around 4/20 showin the depression as yesterday.

It is the ingestion of the shortwave from the north that changes the run of things at around T72hrs.

If it gets ingested at right time it boots up, if not, it doesn't.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Weathercheck wrote: »

It would appear that the idea has been pretty much dropped from the GFS EPS now with just around 4/20 showin the depression as yesterday.

It is the ingestion of the shortwave from the north that changes the run of things at around T72hrs.

If it gets ingested at right time it boots up, if not, it doesn't.

Probably running Vista, damn thing never boots up right :mad:

Su Campu

I still don't see much potential for low-level snow tomorrow, with sleet at sea level, turning more snowy above around 100 m. In the northwest, theta-e values will be above +20 °C near the occlusion, though with cold undercutting there should still be hill snow. More widespread values of around +14-15 °C, coupled with the low SLP, should make the snowline somewhere around 100 m.

The sea track is just too long for the cold airmass to hold its own.

There should be widespread hail showers at all levels though, some of them thundery.

Min

It is a very good thing that the potential for later in the week is looking weaker and weaker, if everything did come together for it then it would not be something to look forward to.

The thing is the UK met still have warnings up for later in the week, this for Northern Ireland:
Rapidly strengthening winds and heavy rain are likely to arrive across the west later on Thursday and through Friday, heralding another potentially stormy period. The public is advised to monitor warnings for this period, noting that the warning may be upgraded.

ninebeanrows

NAE (UMO MESO) has the storm tomorrow night quite deep.

Infact id extrapolate near 940mb as weatheronline charts don't go sub 950mb

They throw sustained winds of > 55mph into the northwest. Widespread sustained winds of > 35mph-40mph

With gusts in northern areas perhaps to 75 knots/ 85mph. Inland gusts likely to 60mph in the north and perhaps up to 70mph in north Leinster.

Sponge Bob

Bit of a dry slot showing on the WV out midatlantic ( 11:45am UTC Image 6:45 EST) ....which is a classic "Bomb" Precondition......will there be a third storm and will it pick up and deepen the second of them on its way across. ???

WolfeIRE

Nice pressure animation for the coming week
http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=1&res=750&type=pressure&starttime=1323648000

leahyl

Must say I'm disappointed about the storm but I guess that's what happens when you get too excited about something like this - brings you back down to earth with a bang! Ah well, onto the next weather system:D

ffarrell7

Met Eireann uses metric only, therefore kilometres in terms of windspeed and not MPH. We have been officially metric in Ireland since 2005. No miles or mph on any signs since then. Why are you using mph???? Litres and kilometres only please.

Weathercheck wrote: »

NAE (UMO MESO) has the storm tomorrow night quite deep.

Infact id extrapolate near 940mb as weatheronline charts don't go sub 950mb

They throw sustained winds of > 55mph into the northwest. Widespread sustained winds of > 35mph-40mph

With gusts in northern areas perhaps to 75 knots/ 85mph. Inland gusts likely to 60mph in the north and perhaps up to 70mph in north Leinster.

Sponge Bob

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Met Eireann uses metric only, therefore kilometres in terms of windspeed and not MPH

Don't be daft! That is plain downright wrong. !

ninebeanrows

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Met Eireann uses metric only, therefore kilometres in terms of windspeed and not MPH. We have been officially metric in Ireland since 2005. No miles or mph on any signs since then. Why are you using mph???? Litres and kilometres only please.

I am using MPH and Knots becuase the charts i use have those measurements! Get a grip!;)

Su Campu

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Met Eireann uses metric only, therefore kilometres in terms of windspeed and not MPH. We have been officially metric in Ireland since 2005. No miles or mph on any signs since then. Why are you using mph???? Litres and kilometres only please.

We officially use knots too, as do Met Éireann on their website. You won't find km/h or mph on aviation reports.

If you want to have a go then why not say something to MT too? I haven't heard anyone complain yet.

Some of the UK charts posted read mph, which is why that unit is used in reference to them. If you're really so pro-metric then I'm sure converting to kmph is child's play to you?!

I prefer to use the furlong per fortnight one meself....

WolfeIRE

http://www.met.ie/climate/wind.asp

ME's page on wind in Ireland uses m.p.h.

gbee

ffarrell7 wrote: »

Met Eireann uses metric only, .

I might suggest you find the thread on this subject, no need to derail this one IMO, on a subject recently explored vigorously.

mike65

Is it me or has Fridays storm become a non event?

IMBACKLATER

its looking like a non event.

Hooter23

On RTE weather just now she mentioned bliZzard Like conditions tomorrow in the nrth west no word if it was just on high ground which i think it will be

cherryghost

Well as I mentioned in the previous 2 days the runs have seen temperatures constantly falling. DP nationwide tomorrow, tomorrow evening and into Wednesday morning is about 0 to -4 come the evening, minimal in some areas but there's a good chance that the North, Northwest and part of the Midlands could get a decent covering.



As Su and MT mentioned too the chance of snow at lower levels was minimalistic. There's a real chance of snow for many areas below 100m at this point as 2m temps and DP drop to that possibility. My mindset was 25% probability of this happening, I'd say its about 51% now :P Precipitation not as intense as previously forecasted but still looks good for parts.

WolfeIRE

Snow likely in any showers in locations above 100m as indicated by others

850hPa (temp at approx 1500m)




Dew point


Precipitation type
pink = snow
blue = rain


Wind

Su Campu

850 hPa will be at more like 1000-1200 metres tomorrow, such is the depth of the low.