This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

maw368

Well the UKMO has snow and wind warnings for most of Wales tomorrow about midday, hope it pulls off as I have been like a school boy overly excited waiting for some proper winter weather.

Any chance this Friday storm could upgrade again, maybe the UKMO has a reason to keep the warning there at present and I have heard many talk of the possibility of upgrading but with no mention to why it could be so. I'm clueless but it does seem like the weather is at such an awkward stage the models don't know which way is left or right

Storm 10

Watched BBC Weather at 1.30 and they had a warning for severe gales with damaging gusts for tomorrow and for Thur and Fri. Looks to be still on.

only one

Be nice if the south east some bit of snow from all this weather were getting this week

leahyl

Amazing the difference in forecasts with the BBC still forecasting stormy conditions but yet the models seem to have downgraded significantly

JJJJNR

leahyl wrote: »

Amazing the difference in forecasts with the BBC still forecasting stormy conditions but yet the models seem to have downgraded significantly

That would be the Michael effect.

WolfeIRE

Storm 10 wrote: »

Watched BBC Weather at 1.30 and they had a warning for severe gales with damaging gusts for tomorrow and for Thur and Fri. Looks to be still on.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/16143615

Pangea

Interesting weather warnings on Met Uk for NI

Yellow warning for snow NI now

Issued at - 12 Dec 2011, 12:33
Valid from - 13 Dec 2011, 03:00
Valid to - 14 Dec 2011, 03:00

Heavy showers will fall as snow over hills above about 100 m, and at times to low levels too. Accumulations of 10 cm or more are possible on hills, and there may also be some slushy accumulations at low levels. As a result some roads will become icy at times.

Very strong winds will accompany the showers at times, notably across Northern Ireland and southern and western Scotland.

The public should be aware that travel may be disrupted as a result of the bad weather, notably over high ground where combination of strong winds and snow could lead to temporary blizzard conditions.

Speak Now

only one wrote: »

Be nice if the south east some bit of snow from all this weather were getting this week

Unless you're on high ground i'd say no chance.

WolfeIRE

MET EIREANN

Issued at 12 December 2011 - 13:29
Weather Warning
Stormy conditions will develop later tonight and will continue throughout Tuesday. Gale to strong gale southwesterly winds will affect much of the country especially the west and the north.

West and Northwest: Mean wind speeds will reach 60 to 90 km/h with gusts of 100 to 130 km/h.

Elsewhere: Mean wind speeds of 45 to 65 km/h and gusts of 80 to 110 km/h.

Very high seas are forecast on Tuesday along the northwest, west and southwest coasts and coupled with the high spring tides there is the threat of coastal flooding.

naughto

hi wofie how come i cant send u pm messages

WolfeIRE

naughto wrote: »

hi wofie how come i cant send u pm messages

I don't know Naughto. Were you sending one in the 60 secs previously and then tried to send another? I'll send you a blank one if you wish.

Sponge Bob

already gusting over 40KT in the west and south, bit of a stiff breeze really

IMBACKLATER

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=No-JNiJwFcg&feature=youtu.be

winds picking up on the west coast

Deep Easterly

The below chart shows the ECM 00z operation run with the darker shaded areas indicating depth of deviation away from the actual Ensemble mean run:



Highest area of contention surrounds the actual position of Thursday evenings low with the deterministic run tending have it on a slightly more southerly track then the En mean output. So, though hope is fading, all is not lost just yet.

Notwithstanding that, it is interesting that the models are in general reverting back to the idea they were showing early last week regarding the track and position of the low which they (ECMWF & GFS esp) had tending more southerly than recent outputs:

ECMWF 00z run from last Wednesday for example:


More or less similar to this morning's run, only less complex!

Pangea

No wind up this far north yet, just a breeze.

naughto

IMBACKLATER wrote: »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=No-JNiJwFcg&feature=youtu.be

winds picking up on the west coast

what part of mayo are u in backlater.its pissing down here in castlebar but it not that windy

IMBACKLATER

Louisburgh, near roonagh pier.

maquiladora

Forecast / model discussion only?

Shouldn't the chat and reports be in the chat and reports thread?

:rolleyes:

12Z GME

IMBACKLATER

oppps, sorry about that:)

naughto

relax maquiladora he was only ans a question

Hooter23

Latest Netweather update for thur/fri....

Thursday should start off bright and sunny in the morning, but more wet and very windy weather looks to sweep in later in the day and through into Friday morning, though for now it looks a little less certain where the strongest winds and heaviest rain will be late Thursday and into Friday morning, it may not be until Wednesday that we have a clearer idea. But Netweather will keep you updated via our front page and our alerts throughout this week on where the likely severe weather may occur for the rest of the week.

Still could happen maybe

maquiladora

naughto wrote: »

relax maquiladora he was only ans a question

Wasn't talkin about anyone in particular, there's loads of stuff posted there that belongs in the other thread. I actually thought I had clicked into the chat thread by mistake!

Anyway, 12Z GME out to 66 hours with that infamous low to our southwest. More intense on this run that the 0Z, but will have to wait for the 72 hour frame to see what happenes next.



Here is the 06Z GFS for the same timeframe. Big difference.



And now back to the 12Z GME, 72 hours :

delw

maquiladora wrote: »

Wasn't talkin about anyone in particular, there's loads of stuff posted there that belongs in the other thread. I actually thought I had clicked into the chat thread by mistake!

Anyway, 12Z GME out to 66 hours with that infamous low to our southwest. More intense on this run that the 0Z, but will have to wait for the 72 hour frame to see what happenes next.

could it be going back on track for a more direct hit maq ?

Redsunset

Yes the GME shows low deepening about 10mb every 6 hours and then perhaps engulfing the shortwave coming down from Greenland to give it a power boost that will explode it further north and bring us back in the game.

Actually looks to be interacting with the strong Jet stream perfectly,ECM later will be interesting

maquiladora

delw wrote: »

could it be going back on track for a more direct hit maq ?

Well on this latest run of the GME it has is as a deepening low approaching Ireland, but it's just one run, we'll have to see what the GFS/UKMO/ECM do later.

ffarrell7

Once I hear talk of the Atlantic then I know that any falls of snow will generally be confined to the North-West and North of country but little elsewhere. The snow will be wet and tends to last a few hours on the ground at low levels whereas an easterly flow gives much colder temperatures and major snowfall especially to eastern and north-eastern regions like over the past three years. Atlantic weather bring major storms and other forms of turbulence but not much else unless as I have said high up.:D:D

maquiladora

Tuesday's low is more intense and further east at 15 hours on the 12Z GFS.

I guess FI starts early this week.

Edit : Big difference in position and strength of lows around us at only 36 hours compared to the 06Z.

The Westerner

maquiladora wrote: »

Tuesday's low is more intense and further east at 15 hours on the 12Z GFS.

I guess FI starts early this week.

Yes. Nasty enough looking at 1300 hrs (CET) tomorrow.

maquiladora

12Z GFS showing 75-80mph gusts reaching the Donegal coast midday tomorrow.

ninebeanrows

Yes this storm tomorrow looks like it is growing in danger.