This Week's Storms - FORECAST, MODEL DISCUSSION ONLY

ninebeanrows

GFS might blow up something for the south UK here.

Such a tenuous set up!

and a no!

Paris gets hit!

leahyl

I thinking Cork might get a battering - I just feel it!! The South could come off the worst from this!

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

GFS might blow up something for the south UK here.

Such a tenuous set up!

Almost, but its France that would get the worst there.

A bit more intense than the 12Z but staying south.

Spindle

Is the UK Met Office model the only model that is corrected by humans after the run? Maybe this is why they are still giving the storm and other models have lost the plot.

TheMilkyPirate

Northern France taking the heat with Thursdays low on the 18z.

Harps

GFS giving France a decent storm but still nothing for us, even southern England mostly escaping

ninebeanrows

Harps wrote: »

GFS giving France a decent storm but still nothing for us, even southern England mostly escaping

The English forums will be saying, it was forecast to move into France, but then during the night over the Bay of Biscay the storm exploded...................

Spindle

leahyl wrote: »

I thinking Cork might get a battering - I just feel it!! The South could come off the worst from this!

Strange that you say that I was thinking the same thing, it reminds me of the build up to the 97 xmas eve storm. We are long overdue a big storm, one that will beat our northern brothers

But it looks to be forming a little to late for us on the latest runs, but the UK Met still have it slamming into us.

maquiladora

Spindle wrote: »

Is the UK Met Office model the only model that is corrected by humans after the run? Maybe this is why they are still giving the storm and other models have lost the plot.

The UKMO model isn't corrrected by humans, but the UKMO Fax Charts can be adjusted by forecasters.

leahyl

Spindle wrote: »

leahyl wrote: »

I thinking Cork might get a battering - I just feel it!! The South could come off the worst from this!

Strange that you say that I was thinking the same thing, it reminds me of the build up to the 97 xmas eve storm. We are long overdue a big storm, one that will beat our northern brothers

But it looks to be forming a little to late for us on the latest runs, but the UK Met still have it slamming into us.

I know I shouldn't be hoping for something like this but I can't help it :-) there's nothing like a good storm and if the UK met are "very confident" of such a storm then that's good enough for me!

Hooter23

I just pressed rewind on tv again to see that forecast again on bbc the low was very deep and went up by donegal bringing most of the strong winds to most of ireland he said they were very confident of damaging winds but uncertain about the track

leahyl

Hooter23 wrote: »

....but uncertain about the track

Aaah therein lies the problem - they don't know where these winds are gonna cause damage!

ninebeanrows

a wise young man has spotted in the UKM mes (NAE) that the storm for Thursday is just about coming into range.

The storm progged here just coming into view.

The cente is <985mb at this point, lower than progged on the ECM or GFS, showing the disparity of forecast as early as this point.

Su Campu

Weathercheck wrote: »

a wise young man has spotted in the UKM mes (NAE) that the storm for Thursday is just about coming into range.

The storm progged here just coming into view.

The cente is <985mb at this point, lower than progged on the ECM or GFS, showing the disparity of forecast as early as this point.

That could mean it will occlude earlier and take a track further north.

maquiladora

Weathercheck wrote: »

a wise young man has spotted in the UKM mes (NAE) that the storm for Thursday is just about coming into range.

The storm progged here just coming into view.

The cente is <985mb at this point, lower than progged on the ECM or GFS, showing the disparity of forecast as early as this point.

NAE gets its boundary data from the UKMO though doesn't it? Since that is right at the edge there maybe thats more a reflection of the UKMO rather than the NAE?

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

That could mean it will occlude earlier and take a track further north.

Yeah what i was thinking. This thing could do anything i feel. Could be a fish or a or go to Paris.

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

That could mean it will occlude earlier and take a track further north.

Was just gonna say that...


For 2moro's Storm. 10 m sea level pressure and wind chart ( Hirlam ) has Force 11 winds hitting the N & NW from 1pm- 6pm .
We should have set up a top gust guess... thread :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

Seems to fit in with the UKMO projection alright: (sorry for size of chart)



988 mb at 12z and occluding!

Su Campu

Iancar29 wrote: »

Was just gonna say that...


For 2moro's Storm. 10 m sea level pressure and wind chart ( Hirlam ) has Force 11 winds hitting the N & NW from 1pm- 6pm .
We should have set up a top gust guess... thread :rolleyes:

Isn't that model the WRF (GFS hi res), not the Hirlam?

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

Isn't that model the WRF (GFS hi res), not the Hirlam?

Really?... i always thought Peter Lynch saying it was the Hirlam... ah well.
Cant see a reference for it on the page.

Su Campu

Iancar29 wrote: »

Really?... i always thought Peter Lynch saying it was the Hirlam... ah well.
Cant see a reference for it on the page.

It's there alright. http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-about-fc.html

About these Forecasts

There forecasts are generated using the WRF-ARW model.
The initial data come from the GFS (Global Forecast System) run by the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in Washington. The lateral boundary data are also from GFS.
The charts are prepared using the NCAR Graphics Package NCL (NCAR Command Language).
The forecasts are updated four times each day, from the GFS analyses at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC. The WRF model is run at two resolutions, 30 km and 10 km. Click the "Zoom in" button to display the higher resolution.

Iancar29

Su Campu wrote: »

It's there alright. http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-about-fc.html


[/B]

Cheers SU... My FLU effected eyes deceive me! :rolleyes:

Met Eireann's 5 day wind forecast seems to be the same just in Knots Topping at no greater winds than 63knots 2moro.... id say they'll get a greater speed for more than 20 seconds to decieve that forecast! :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

How it looks on the latest AEMET HIRLAM for noon Thursday:



Tending NE'wards, but for how long?

Projected jet stream pattern for the same time:

Ahorseofaman

Met eireann forecast in a few mins on rte 1

ninebeanrows

Latest depression is gathering strength on latest satellite pics with its structure improving, a extremely dangerous depression moving towards Donegal Bay.

Ahorseofaman

Weathercheck wrote: »

Latest depression is gathering strength on latest satellite pics with its structure improving, a extremely dangerous depression moving towards Donegal Bay.

How dangerous and how much of the country do you reckon it will effect Weathercheck ?

The Westerner

Late news just started on RTE1 now. Forecast in a couple of minutes.

Sponge Bob

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Projected jet stream pattern for the same time:

EH, Jet stream seem to be curving north right now not south, this projection above shows it curving southwards over the next few days.

Animate the last few days here to see the general pattern.

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_model.html

Now.

nacho libre

maquiladora

Issued at 13 December 2011 - 00:05

Weather Warning

Stormy conditions will affect the country today with winds gusting 100 to 130 km/h, strongest in the North and Northwest.
There will also be sleet and snow showers especially in the North and West with blizzard-like conditions giving hazardous driving conditions and some icy roads.
Very high seas are forecast also along the northwest,west and southwest coasts and coupled with the high spring tides there is a threat of coastal flooding.

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/warnings.asp