King George VI 2011

Colonel Sanders

ForeverYoung90 wrote: »

320 euro on Long Run to win at 5/4!Talk me out of this.:o

Already 11/8 with the bookies and 2.4 on Betfair so whatever you do don't take 5/4

I personally think he'll be as big if not bigger in the morning (Stan James will surely be top industry price during their "happy hour"). Not sure what SP will be like as Kauto will go off a pathetic price on course (think he started 4/7 last year while his Betfair SP was a lot bigger). Depends who the money comes for

Juwwi

Paddy Power are open for 4 hours in the morning.

I was in there today and they were mad to get money out of people's pockets with specials and I'd say they will be at the same tomorrow it could be worth checking if anyone has a spare half an hour.

Some of the specials were quite good.

Nulty

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Already 11/8 with the bookies and 2.4 on Betfair so whatever you do don't take 5/4

I personally think he'll be as big if not bigger in the morning (Stan James will surely be top industry price during their "happy hour"). Not sure what SP will be like as Kauto will go off a pathetic price on course (think he started 4/7 last year while his Betfair SP was a lot bigger). Depends who the money comes for

Totally agree! Don't throw a wad on him at this stage, he could very easily be bigger the morning of the race. Make sure your up early and keep an eye on the market.

Morgans

All being equal this is a two-horse race.

Long Run wins if he back to last years form, and if Kauto Star can maintain the form from Haydock it will be a proper scrap.

Only either doesnt happen, then something else could pick up the pieces. I see nothing to tempt me to back Master Minded. He beats Somersby when they meet but fails without excuse when meeting proper grade 1 animals. Unexposed at the trip of course, but isnt nearly the horse everyone thought he would be. If Somersby cant win a Peterborough he cant win this if anything in the top five in the betting run their race. Captain Chris is the darker one and looks to me a likely stayer but I dont think there is any value in the price. I think given the shape of the race - Golan Way, Nacarat, - I think Diamond Harry is the ew value in the race. Faded badly at Haydock but travelled best throughout. I think he can travel with the first two for longer than the others.

Long Run to win for me. Anything odds against is value for me.

mdwexford

Can see Long Run being a drifter.

If he puts in a decent round of jumping and is at his best he should win well.

Colonel Sanders

mdwexford wrote: »

Can see Long Run being a drifter.

If he puts in a decent round of jumping and is at his best he should win well.

Already around 6/4 on Betfair. I can see him being the Stan James happy hour price so could be bigger than that with the bookies on Monday morning

Huntey

Something which I find is key to Long Run is allowing him to do things at his own pace. One thing that I noticed when re-watching the Betfair was that Sam Waley Cohen tried to make up ground on the king into a few fences down the back which led to the errors.

He is never going to out-jump Kauto and shouldn't be expected to. One bad blunder here though and I can't see this field waiting around for him.

Nulty

Nulty wrote: »

Haha! That only cause I was banging on about him taking his chance in the QM last year. I made enough noise for another 5 races. I'll tell you what I (remeber) backing him in....

his first 2, which he won. The Arkle, Not sure I backed him at Aintree that year, if I did it wasn't for a memorable stake. I think I had him in the Haldon Gold Cup for a few quid, don't think I was in for the Tingle Creek - he was touted by many that day and didn't look value. I backed Petit Robin in the Victor Chandler at Ascot when he had that fall and Kalahari King was taken wide (like that made the difference. I remember the guy from RPTV talking him up for the Ryanair after that. Albertas Run all the way!) Had 25s or 20s on him ante post for the QM. Terribly outpaced, as was expected by many on here but hey, My money was on and I wanted a run! Pity the ground didn't come up slower. Was on Albertas Run at Aintree after that and haven't backed him at all this year apart from wsom speculative ante post bets in this and the Gold Cup.

I like the horse but the horse is a c**t.

Somersby ran a nice race. He didn't stand a chance with the front two but I'm happy with that. Could be looking for a place at Cheltenham.

Panrich

What a horse. Still too much ability at 11 for the competition. Long Run again tapped for speed as at Haydock and no excuses as his jumping came under pressure when asked to keep up with the pace of the winner. He's a bit of a plodder in comparison albeit a very good one.

tryfix

Brilliant stuff, a fifth King George win puts him in a league of his own. The moving of last years King George to january probably contributed a fair bit to him losing the last King George, he would have been primed for december 26th and may have gone off the boil by january 15th.

Panrich

tryfix wrote: »

Brilliant stuff, a fifth King George win puts him in a league of his own. The moving of last years King George to january probably contributed a fair bit to him losing the last King George, he would have been primed for december 26th and may have gone off the boil by january 15th.

His routine was always geared towards a peak at Christmas. Ruby back on board too was another huge plus.

pudzy

hats off to the nicholls stable, and the backroom staff, getting kauto back to that kind of form is unreal...

andyman

I've seen people saying it's time to get Sam Waley-Cohen off Long Run.

Am I the only one that thinks this is immensely harsh and that the reason why Long Run isn't doing as well is more to do with Kauto Star springing back into form? SWC has gotten Long Run through his career and to a King George as well as a Gold Cup. Why is it that he's suddenly the blame when Long Run looks no different to how he was running last year?

For instance, was Kauto's form last year the fault of Ruby Walsh? I don't think so.

mr.jingle

What a performance from Kauto Star today, it was a joy to watch him jumping the way he did today. I was in Leopardstown and the roars for him over the last were amazing. The leap he put in somewhere around the back straight when he looked like he took off a stride too early was immense spine chilling stuff! He cleared it by a mile. I still think it's Long Runs Gold Cup to lose as he will stay on that bit better up the hill just like last year but lets not get into that as it is once again King Kauto Star's day......UNBELIEVABLE!!!!!!!

pudzy

long run didnt jump well today, stayed on at the finish, once last fence was out of the way... still great horse and big season still ahead

tayto lover

pudzy wrote: »

long run didnt jump well today, stayed on at the finish, once last fence was out of the way... still great horse and big season still ahead

Let me down for a 4 timer. BUT don't begrudge Kauto.

abouttobebanned

andyman wrote: »

I've seen people saying it's time to get Sam Waley-Cohen off Long Run.

Am I the only one that thinks this is immensely harsh and that the reason why Long Run isn't doing as well is more to do with Kauto Star springing back into form? SWC has gotten Long Run through his career and to a King George as well as a Gold Cup. Why is it that he's suddenly the blame when Long Run looks no different to how he was running last year?

For instance, was Kauto's form last year the fault of Ruby Walsh? I don't think so.

In a way, I agree with you. Today I think there was a problem with tactics and also maybe over confidence on the part of the amateur. He under estimated Kauto in my opinion. On first watching of the race I was frustrated at Sam's jumping with the horse, but after watching again it's definitely more of a problem that the horse has in his technique. The legs are staying in the fence and the horse's arse propels the jockey forward. Can't really blame Sam for that.

Connections have every right to put whoever they want on their horse, I personally would just like to see a pro on Long Run ONCE...just to see how he jumps and travels.

kksaints

Shame about Master Minded but what a race. I wrote off Kauto at the start of the season but Ive been proven wrong. Cant wait to see the two of them in the gold cup now.

cents

I guess it comes down to the motivation for owning the horse in the first place. No doubt a Paul Carberry or Timmy Murphy would be interesting on Long Run to see what sort of tune they would get out of him. Saying that, I think in any of Long Runs defeats so far in Britain he has been well held by the winner regardless of jockey.

Huntey

Long Run's jumping is fine until the screw is turned. He simply can't jump well enough at speed and that has found him out on his last two runs.

Kauto is the greatest horse ever, no question about it now. I won't lie I wasn't cheering him on as I had Long Run backed but I think I will watch it again now with a smile on my face.

He might not find much off the bridle these days but he can jump and travel better than any 3 mile chaser.

RichieLawlor

Huntey wrote: »

He might not find much off the bridle these days but he can jump and travel better than any 3 mile chaser.

Who? Kauto? What? finds nothing off the bridle, are you insane

Huntey

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Who? Kauto? What? finds nothing off the bridle, are you insane

Apologies I worded that wrong.

What I meant was he doesn't still possess that turn of foot he used to have.

RichieLawlor

Huntey wrote: »

Apologies I worded that wrong.

What I meant was he doesn't still possess that turn of foot he used to have.

Hes probably still the quickest 3 mile chaser around, albeit a few paces short of what he was

Colonel Sanders

Desert Orchid was before my time but this surely puts Kauto ahead of him? The horse is rising 12 FFS!

I know it's a difficult & dangerous game to compare horses from different ages but how would he compare to the Arkle's & Mill House's of this world? Won't even try to claim I know enough about them to even try it.

I never cheered a horse as much in my life (and that was from about half way round) & without a financial interest in him. Great spectacle & great for the sport. To me it epitomises why the jumps game is way ahead of the flat. I always think of the flat as a business and NH as a sport.

What made it even better was to hear Master Minded's injuries aren't life threatening.

Colonel Sanders

kksaints wrote: »

I wrote off Kauto at the start of the season but Ive been proven wrong. Cant wait to see the two of them in the gold cup now.

Makes 2 of us, and to make things worse I was still adamant after Haydock that he'd never reproduce it!

Never been so delighted to be proved so spectacularly wrong in my life

tryfix

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Desert Orchid was before my time but this surely puts Kauto ahead of him? The horse is rising 12 FFS!

I know it's a difficult & dangerous game to compare horses from different ages but how would he compare to the Arkle's & Mill House's of this world? Won't even try to claim I know enough about them to even try it.

I never cheered a horse as much in my life (and that was from about half way round) & without a financial interest in him. Great spectacle & great for the sport. To me it epitomises why the jumps game is way ahead of the flat. I always think of the flat as a business and NH as a sport.

What made it even better was to hear Master Minded's injuries aren't life threatening.

I hated Desert Orchid with a passion because of suspicions about his trainer. He was quite simply a monster of a horse, unbelievably consistent and tough, he was a lesser horse than Kauto Star on ability but held in greater public affection than Kauto. Kauto is the best NH horse since Arkle and deserves to be rated as such.

Morgans

What suspicions?

Both horses in a King George would be very very close. Desert Orchid was a better more spectacular jumper who won Tingle Creeks over 2m, Irish Nationals over 3m5f and Whitbread under top weight. He also, like Denman, but not Kauto Star won handicaps off huge marks - Racing Post Chase off 12-4. To even faintly hint that his fame is media generated is nonsense.

Kauto Star's CHeltenham record makes him his superior in the annals of history, but both at their peak in the King George would have been as good a race as has ever been imagined.

tryfix

Morgans wrote: »

What suspicions?

Both horses in a King George would be very very close. Desert Orchid was a better more spectacular jumper who won Tingle Creeks over 2m, Irish Nationals over 3m5f and Whitbread under top weight. He also, like Denman, but not Kauto Star won handicaps off huge marks - Racing Post Chase off 12-4. To even faintly hint that his fame is media generated is nonsense.

Kauto Star's CHeltenham record makes him his superior in the annals of history, but both at their peak in the King George would have been as good a race as has ever been imagined.

Another of his trainers horses Cavvies Clown tested positive for steroids after reaching a level of form similar to Desert Orchid.

The largest fine ever imposed on a trainer was £17,500 for David Elsworth in December 1988 following a hearing into three wins by the chaser Cavvies Clown in January that year.
Elsworth's fines amounted to £3,500 for each race after the horse was found to have tested positive to steroids, coupled with a £3,500 veterinary fine for administering a prohibited drug.
He also received

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-505947/Woe-trainer-Wigham-faces-record-fine.html#ixzz1hkdv2eZE

Morgans

tryfix wrote: »

Another of his trainers horses Cavvies Clown tested positive for steroids after reaching a level of form similar to Desert Orchid.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/racing/article-505947/Woe-trainer-Wigham-faces-record-fine.html#ixzz1hkdv2eZE

Fair enough. Caavies Clown was about a stone inferior to Desert Orchid but its a good point. I suppose you'd have suspicions over all of Nicky Henderson's horses running these days.

tryfix

Morgans wrote: »

Fair enough. Caavies Clown was about a stone inferior to Desert Orchid but its a good point. I suppose you'd have suspicions over all of Nicky Henderson's horses running these days.

If one is at it then they could all be at it, who knows what the truth is. When it comes down to the business of racing you'd be a fool to lose a race by a nose that you could have won by a few lenghts if you were using all the available help open to you. It gets a bit sticky when you are talking about reputations of horses going to stud, a failed test by one devalues all your horses achievments. I would imagine they keep inside the the legal framework as the reputational consequences could be catastrophic. I look at the base material a trainer is working with and question should those horses be achieving the level of form that they are displaying. Dessies combination of speed and stamina was always the troubling thing for me, but what the hell do I know about training horses. If I had been smart I would have backed him blind.

hucklebuck

tryfix wrote: »

If one is at it then they could all be at it, who knows what the truth is. When it comes down to the business of racing you'd be a fool to lose a race by a nose that you could have won by a few lenghts if you were using all the available help open to you. It gets a bit sticky when you are talking about reputations of horses going to stud, a failed test by one devalues all your horses achievments. I would imagine they keep inside the the legal framework as the reputational consequences could be catastrophic. I look at the base material a trainer is working with and question should those horses be achieving the level of form that they are displaying. Dessies combination of speed and stamina was always the troubling thing for me, but what the hell do I know about training horses. If I had been smart I would have backed him blind.

My better half worked at the Aga Khan's and she said they would not even use equipment without referring to the authorities nevermind administer anything.

I agree Morgan's, Henderson gets away with murder, have heard nothing since one of his horses tested positive in February. I think its too suss they way he is bang out of form and then at a big meeting he can clean up. Nicholls and Mullins are fairly consistent all year round and have purple patches like everyone else.