Why are the British so anti Europe?

sin_city

When we joined the EEC we were joining what was essentially a free trade community. We did this as our choice.

Chile makes agreements with whatever country it wants in their interests.

These agreements can be more or less liberal in content depending on the two parties.

For Ireland though, we are stuck. We'll have to let the Germans and French negotiate in our best interests. We are not one of the two parties doing what is best for our interests.

We didn't join the EEC to be part of a superstate. No one would have voted for that. We wanted to be part of a trade agreement.

Do you think the Central Bank in Ireland would have had the interest rates so low when our economy was booming in 2001, 2002 and so on?

No, but the ECB did...why? In the interest of the German economy.

We should have been cooling our economy but it went crazy and now we have the situation we are currently in....done in our interests?

If we want free trade with a random country....tough.....Better wait to see if the French and Germans are ok with it.

We are merely a minuscule percentage of one of the parties.

Scofflaw

sin_city wrote: »

When we joined the EEC we were joining what was essentially a free trade community. We did this as our choice.

Chile makes agreements with whatever country it wants in their interests.

These agreements can be more or less liberal in content depending on the two parties.

For Ireland though, we are stuck. We'll have to let the Germans and French negotiate in our best interests. We are not one of the two parties doing what is best for our interests.

Well, no, that's not how it works. The Commission negotiates trade agreements on behalf of the EU, but every Member State government and/or parliament has to sign off on it.

sin_city wrote: »

We didn't join the EEC to be part of a superstate. No one would have voted for that. We wanted to be part of a trade agreement.

That's also wrong. First, the EEC was never intended to be just a trade agreement. That was what EFTA was, and even the UK, which founded it, abandoned that in favour of the EC and its commitment to ever closer union. Second, we've voted for every treaty since, which have taken the EU beyond just the 'economic community' of its early years. Ireland has been involved in negotiating those treaties, Ireland has signed off on them, and the Irish public have voted for them.

sin_city wrote: »

Do you think the Central Bank in Ireland would have had the interest rates so low when our economy was booming in 2001, 2002 and so on?

No, but the ECB did...why? In the interest of the German economy.

We should have been cooling our economy but it went crazy and now we have the situation we are currently in....done in our interests?

If we want free trade with a random country....tough.....Better wait to see if the French and Germans are ok with it.

We are merely a minuscule percentage of one of the parties.

But not therefore ignored - and as a general rule, we are on the majority side in EU decisions.

Yes, the ECB set interests rates low, but no lower than most of the world's interest rates, and not as low as people generally think:



It's also worth noting that high interest rates didn't save Iceland from a property bubble, nor cause one in Greece.

We had, and have, policy tools that would have allowed us to cool a property bubble without resorting to interest rate manipulation, but unfortunately those tools were in the hands of the politicians rather than the Central Bank - which means that the lesson that prompted the creation of independent central banks is being painfully learned all over again. Politicians won't cool bubbles, or at least most politicians - and our property-connected politicians definitely not.

cordially,
Scofflaw

sin_city

Has any member country ever gone against a trade agreement?

So you're telling me the EEC was the start of the superstate and that this is common knowledge?

The ECB set low rates yes and we needed higher ones. I don't care what the rest of the world did. We did not have the independence to do what we needed. What was done, was done in Germany's interest.

How's Iceland doing now economically in comparison to ourselves?

Peregrinus

sin_city wrote: »

Has any member country ever gone against a trade agreement?

Of course. Do you imagine that countries never use their vetos?

When the veto is deployed, though, it tends to happen fairly early in the piece, so the negotiations never proceed very far, and eventually run into the sands. It’s not something that attracts huge publicity.

But, in 99% of cases, the signficance of the veto is not that it stops something progressing. Rather, it ensures that something progresses in a way acceptable to the country weilding the veto. Countries use their vetos to influence the course of a project far more often than they use them to stop a project. If any country is opposed to a project happening on any terms at all, then the project doesn’t get very far.

sin_city wrote: »

So you're telling me the EEC was the start of the superstate and that this is common knowledge?

Well, the very first thing the Treaty of Rome (1957) talks about is the objective of establishing “the foundations of an ever-closer union among the European peoples”. And words like “supranational” to describe the status and scope of EU law were in common use well before we came along in 1973. So I’d say that, no, this wasn’t exactly a closely guarded secret.

sin_city wrote: »

How's Iceland doing now economically in comparison to ourselves?

Depends on what measure you want to use:

Actual change in Icelandic GDP 2007-2012, measured in USD: fall of 8.7%

Actual change in Irish GDP 2007-2012, meausured in USD: fall of 0.1%

But if you want to look for measures on which Iceland does better than Ireland, I’ve no doubt you can find them.

Scofflaw

sin_city wrote: »

Has any member country ever gone against a trade agreement?

Sure - we've blocked trade deals over beef access.

sin_city wrote: »

So you're telling me the EEC was the start of the superstate and that this is common knowledge?

Given there isn't anything I'd consider a superstate in existence, on the table, or even on the cards, it's hard to answer that question.

On the other hand, since you seem to equate any degree of political union with a superstate, then, heck, the EC was a superstate when we joined it.

sin_city wrote: »

The ECB set low rates yes and we needed higher ones. I don't care what the rest of the world did. We did not have the independence to do what we needed. What was done, was done in Germany's interest.

Partly - Germany actually needed even lower rates, but there was a balance.

The single interest rate shouldn't have been exactly a surprise to our government. It was the single most obvious feature of the euro, and it was also obvious that economic cycles weren't aligned - we were already undergoing huge house price rises (the biggest % rises are actually pre-euro). Unfortunately, instead of a policy response aimed at mitigating the lower than needed interest rates, our government chose to add fuel to the fire. They do have tools, but they used them all to make the bubble bubblier.

sin_city wrote: »

How's Iceland doing now economically in comparison to ourselves?

Still worse, but if you cherry-pick the right statistics you could make it look OK. Or you could read what Icelanders say: http://icelandicecon.blogspot.ie/2013/01/the-economic-truth-on-iceland.html

cordially,
Scofflaw

sin_city

Look, you seem like you're not going to accept any arguments.

I'll accept that the EU is good for farmers in the EU but I think overall its a bad thing for us.

It helped us in the past but now is the time to leave.

Germany needed lower rates????
Ah, so that they could have a housing boom and bust like us and the US? Ok, gotcha.
They only have a debt to GDP ratio of 81% so I guess you're right....they should have borrowed more back then...crank it up to 100%.


Are you really using a blog from some guy in Iceland to tell me Iceland is doing worse now than Ireland and that this is because they didn't pay the debt their banks created and we did?

gallag

Scofflaw wrote: »

That the people changed their minds and delivered a second result.

amused,
Scofflaw

It went like this.

First vote, the people have spoke, the EU and Irish government don't like the answer so launch a campaign bullying people by telling them the world will end for Ireland if they did not vote again and in the manner they want. Second vote on same issue EU/Irish government get there way.

Hardly the bastion of democracy you make it to be. It was a sham.

Boroso

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not even slightly puzzled,

Scofflaw wrote: »

Which it will prove by leaving because it can't get what it wants?

puzzled,
Scofflaw

You can see where the confusing might have arisen from.

Scofflaw wrote: »

I'm not even slightly puzzled, since I am one of the people who doesn't want a federal superstate. That you keep claiming I want one is evidence that you're not engaging with what I'm actually saying, and I admit I'm a little bored these days of being called on to defend a position I don't hold by people who aren't bothered to recognise my real position, or are perhaps incapable of addressing such a position.

What I said was that, from your posts here that is the impression one gets. If that’s wrong, then this is the perfect place to correct an incorrect impression. That you say you are bored these days being called on to correct that impression suggests that there are others who have the same incorrect impression, so presumably it’s no longer a surprise to you when someone else, like me, gets the same, incorrect, impression. Have you thought why it might be that so many get that incorrect impression that you have become bored having to correct it?

Scofflaw wrote: »

It's not an idea whose time has ever come, to be honest. There are people who have wanted it all along, but they've never been in a majority, it's never been the plan, and it's not what 'ever closer union' means.

My sense is now that it’s an unachievable goal in a way that it looked achievable a few years ago. Mainly because many have woken up to the damage the EU has inflicted right across the Eurozone and Europe in recent years, and they now view the EU as unresponsive, unaccountable and uninterested in the people of Europe.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Except that those parties in the main poll well only in EU Parliament elections, which suggests pro/anti EU is an axis that barely registers at the national political level, not something that has replaced a left-right divide.

I mean, OK, I feel fairly strongly about the EU, and you do too. But most people, let's face it, don't. Actually, you probably feel more strongly about it than I do, because while I presume you would celebrate if it were abolished tomorrow, I wouldn't cry or even be particularly downcast, although I would be very surprised.



Not really, because there aren't really polls showing a 'growing euroscepticism' but a loss of faith. They're not actually the same thing, although I can see why you would want to believe they are.

I think a few years ago your analysis would have been largely correct. However, the world moves on and if it’s your judgment that all the “anit-EU” (a clumsy term and I hope you will forgive it’s use for convenience sake) parties across Europe won’t play and influence national elections, I fear, again, your analysis is out of date.

Your analysis of the polls is wishful thinking, and it is a loss of trust in the EU, and it’s institutions, and nothing to do with “faith”, which is what more and more Europeans say.

Scofflaw wrote: »

People are grocers and motor manufacturers, and vice versa. The 'nation of shopkeepers' above all, perhaps.

Out of a population of 65million in the UK, only a small number are motor manufacturers and grocers.

I bought a new Volkswagen in Ireland two years ago for my mother. Guess where it was manufactured?

Companies do what companies do, and they do it for their own motives and not for the common good or betterment. Your apparent faith in accepting what companies say seems naïve. For example, I see recently Ford have been rumbling that their position in the UK might be jeopardised if the UK votes to leave the EU. I remember them saying similar things if the UK did not join the Euro. Guess, what, they are still in Dagenham). And even if there had left the UK, that still would not mean the UK should have joined the Euro.

The petulant self interested threats of companies should be seen for what they are.

Scofflaw wrote: »

You believe that you're expressing or channeling the will of the British people, and you believe that people outside Britain believe the same as you. So zealots always believe, but the real test is the ballot box. Unlike djpbarry and you, I don't believe a UK referendum is a foregone conclusion. I think it's all to play for, because I think reality disagrees with your slogans.

I have made no claims as to what the UK people want, or do not want (and will leave that to DJBarry who seems convinced he knows what they want). I happen to believe that any vote in the UK will be very hard fought, and liable to go either way.

What I believe is that democracy should prevail and the people of the UK, and Europe, should be allowed a direct say in what they want. I am afraid your claims as to what I believe are just made up. I like the clever way you call me a Zealot, without actually saying it directly, and the only thing I am zealous about is democracy and allowing everyone to have their own say.

Boroso

gallag wrote: »

It went like this.

First vote, the people have spoke, the EU and Irish government don't like the answer so launch a campaign bullying people by telling them the world will end for Ireland if they did not vote again and in the manner they want. Second vote on same issue EU/Irish government get there way.

Hardly the bastion of democracy you make it to be. It was a sham.

This is yet another example of the reason more and more people across the EU are telling pollsters that they have lost trust in the EU. I have never met anyone in reality who has disagreed with your analysis, and most people who discuss it conclude the EU and the Irish Government behaved disgracefully, and cite this example as to how the EU is more interested in pursuing it's own objectives, and has no interest in the democratic will of the people in Europe.

I think it is this latter realisation which is resonating with more and more of those who tell pollsters they have lost trust in the EU, as many wake up to the realisation that the EU is not interested in democracy.

Scofflaw

gallag wrote: »

It went like this.

First vote, the people have spoke, the EU and Irish government don't like the answer so launch a campaign bullying people by telling them the world will end for Ireland if they did not vote again and in the manner they want. Second vote on same issue EU/Irish government get there way.

Hardly the bastion of democracy you make it to be. It was a sham.

Again, the Irish people didn't have to vote Yes. Nobody held a gun to anybody's heads, and I very much doubt that you, for example, changed your vote. Some people even changed from Yes to No because they disapproved of the second vote, but very many more changed their vote from No to Yes - nobody made them do it, though.

As such, the second vote remains exactly as democratically legitimate as the first - a free vote by a free people. You can't accept that, because to you, that one was the wrong result, but you cannot give any reason why the second vote of the Irish people should be set aside and the first one cast in stone.

Did you change your vote to Yes? Were you forced to do so? If you did not, and were not forced, why do you believe other people were? Are they less resilient than you? Less intelligent, more fearful, what?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Boroso

Scofflaw wrote: »

Again, the Irish people didn't have to vote Yes. Nobody held a gun to anybody's heads,

While no one literally held a gun to anyone's head, figuratively many consider that a gun was held to the heads of the irish electorate.

Scofflaw

Boroso wrote: »

While no one literally held a gun to anyone's head, figuratively many consider that a gun was held to the heads of the irish electorate.

Really? We were threatened with what exactly? How did this threatening differ from standard campaign behaviour of warning of dire consequences? And how did you and many other people manage to resist it?

cordially,
Scofflaw

Scofflaw

Boroso wrote:

I have made no claims as to what the UK people want, or do not want (and will leave that to DJBarry who seems convinced he knows what they want). I happen to believe that any vote in the UK will be very hard fought, and liable to go either way.

What I believe is that democracy should prevail and the people of the UK, and Europe, should be allowed a direct say in what they want. I am afraid your claims as to what I believe are just made up. I like the clever way you call me a Zealot, without actually saying it directly, and the only thing I am zealous about is democracy and allowing everyone to have their own say.

I wouldn't disagree that you wish that, and I'm happy to see the UK public voting on it as well. The difference, though, is that one might suspect someone anti-EU of wishing for it because it might bring about an EU exit, whereas obviously the status quo would suit a pro-EU zealot better.

cordially,
Scofflaw

djpbarry

Boroso wrote: »

For example, I see recently Ford have been rumbling that their position in the UK might be jeopardised if the UK votes to leave the EU. I remember them saying similar things if the UK did not join the Euro. Guess, what, they are still in Dagenham.

But their operation has been scaled back considerably.

Boroso wrote: »

The petulant self interested threats of companies should be seen for what they are.

Potential job losses?

Boroso wrote: »

I have made no claims as to what the UK people want, or do not want (and will leave that to DJBarry who seems convinced he knows what they want).

Eh, you’ve been claiming to know what everyone in Europe wants. For example...

Boroso wrote: »

Your analysis of the polls is wishful thinking, and it is a loss of trust in the EU, and it’s institutions, and nothing to do with “faith”, which is what more and more Europeans say.

...and...

Boroso wrote: »

This is yet another example of the reason more and more people across the EU are telling pollsters that they have lost trust in the EU.

Boroso

Scofflaw wrote: »

Really? We were threatened with what exactly? How did this threatening differ from standard campaign behaviour of warning of dire consequences? And how did you and many other people manage to resist it?

cordially,
Scofflaw

It is up to you to decide if and what you were threatened by or from. Just as it is up to everyone to decide that for themselves.

Is your argument that, because you may have decided you did not feel personally, threatened, then no one else has the right to decide otherwise for themselves? And, also, no onlookers from elsewhere in Europe and around the world are permitted to feel uneasy at the way the events were conducted, and reach their own conclusions?

djpbarry

Boroso wrote: »

It is up to you to decide if and what you were threatened by or from. Just as it is up to everyone to decide that for themselves.

Is your argument that, because you may have decided you did not feel personally, threatened, then no one else has the right to decide otherwise for themselves? And, also, no onlookers from elsewhere in Europe and around the world are permitted to feel uneasy at the way the events were conducted, and reach their own conclusions?

In other words, nobody was threatened with anything.

gallag

djpbarry wrote: »

In other words, nobody was threatened with anything.

Every body in Ireland was threatened with job losses, crashed economy, failed banks, closed hospitals and schools, all constantly bombarded by state media. Good job every body re voted correctly and non of this happened.

Boroso

gallag wrote: »

Every body in Ireland was threatened with job losses, crashed economy, failed banks, closed hospitals and schools, all constantly bombarded by state media. Good job every body re voted correctly and non of this happened.

In fairness, Scofflaw was not threatened from what he says, but certainly many others did consider themselves threatened, and many abroad remember that and still talk about that when we talk of the EU.

djpbarry

gallag wrote: »

Every body in Ireland was threatened with job losses, crashed economy, failed banks, closed hospitals and schools, all constantly bombarded by state media.

I actually remember the opposite: “Yes for jobs”, for example. Whether such a statement is accurate or not is another matter, but threatening? Hardly.

If it’s threats you’re after, it’s the “No” campaign you want. Sinn Fein categorically stated that Lisbon would bring about lower wages and a “crushing” of family farms.

Seems to me that, if threats were being made, people were threatened into voting “No”.

djpbarry

Boroso wrote: »

In fairness, Scofflaw was not threatened from what he says, but certainly many others did consider themselves threatened, and many abroad still talk about that when we talk of the EU.

Many abroad still talk about an Irish government’s referendum campaign when they talk of the EU?

oscarBravo

gallag wrote: »

Every body in Ireland was threatened with job losses, crashed economy, failed banks, closed hospitals and schools, all constantly bombarded by state media.

I don't remember any of those threats. Do you have sources for them?

Scofflaw

gallag wrote: »

Every body in Ireland was threatened with job losses, crashed economy, failed banks, closed hospitals and schools, all constantly bombarded by state media. Good job every body re voted correctly and non of this happened.

Sorry, let's be exactly clear here, since I did ask you to distinguish between being threatened and standard campaign stuff - you were contacted and told that if you personally voted No you personally would lose your job?

Because otherwise what you've described, as you well know, is bog-standard campaign material, which the No side was absolutely no slouch in promulgating itself. Describing such material from only one of the sides as 'threats' is self-evidently mere partisanry.

Surely, if you're going to even try to pretend to be slightly objective, you would say that people voted No in the first referendum because they were threatened with calamities ranging from conscription into a superstate army to the loss of the minimum wage, via the forced privatisation of every public service and the reintroduction of the death penalty.

Or did those things just slip your mind?

cordially,
Scofflaw

MarkK

Scofflaw wrote: »

... threatened with calamities ranging from conscription into a superstate army to the loss of the minimum wage, via the forced privatisation of every public service and the reintroduction of the death penalty.

Indeed, UKIP threatened us with Euthanasia if we voted yes!

sin_city

Didn't Sarkozy say "The Irish will have to vote again"? and then promptly visited Ireland to "listen" to us?

Jean Asselborn, Luxembourg's at the time foreign minister, said Ireland would need to have a second vote: "The question is how can we prepare it so that it can be won."

Elmar Brok, a senior MEP from Merkel's Christian democratic party, declared that Ireland would need to vote again and a new referendum would decide whether Ireland stayed in the EU or not.


"With all respect for the Irish vote, we cannot allow the huge majority of Europe to be duped by a minority of a minority of a minority", commented Axel Schafer, social democrat (SPD) leader on the Bundestag committee on EU affairs.

Manuel Barroso after the no result "I believe the treaty is alive and we should now try to find a solution,"

Angela Merkel after the initial NO vote, “We must carry on,”

Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said, “We’re sticking firmly to our goal of putting this treaty into effect. So the process of ratification must continue.”

French officials penned the document 'Solution to the Irish Problem', in which they say the EU should push Ireland into re-running its referendum

Well, at least we had no outside interference on the question of how we'd vote and also clearly there was no pressure from outside to have a second referendum. Gee, some people really are fools

Boroso

Rerunning the Lisbon arguments is pointless and serves no purpose.

Some say they think it was a wonderful example of democracy at work, others think it was less, and some considerably less, than that.

What has always interested me is how it is often remembered by others outside Ireland, as a sort of talisman for the way the EU works, and one man even said to me that it was as if Ireland was sent to bed early without any supper until it decided it was going to vote the "correct" way.

Like it or not, many people have strong views about such treatment, which is another peg in the wall in forming their opinion about the way the EU runs itself.

djpbarry

Boroso wrote: »

What has always interested me is how it is often remembered by others outside Ireland...

I'm pretty confident that if I were to leave my desk and venture out onto the streets of London right now and stop random passers-by, the vast majority of them would have no idea what the Lisbon Treaty is, let alone the circumstances surrounding its ratification in Ireland.

Scofflaw

Boroso wrote: »

Rerunning the Lisbon arguments is pointless and serves no purpose.

Some say they think it was a wonderful example of democracy at work, others think it was less, and some considerably less, than that.

What has always interested me is how it is often remembered by others outside Ireland, as a sort of talisman for the way the EU works, and one man even said to me that it was as if Ireland was sent to bed early without any supper until it decided it was going to vote the "correct" way.

Like it or not, many people have strong views about such treatment, which is another peg in the wall in forming their opinion about the way the EU runs itself.

That's certainly so, but it's rather clear that such views are often decidedly one-sided, as we see here.

That in turn suggests that the strong views about such treatment are derived from already settled opinions about the way the EU runs itself, rather than vice-versa.

Do we have anyone willing to state how it is that campaign comments by one side are "threatening", while equally alarming claims by the other side are not? And how a comment by Sarkozy is "foreign interference" while a leaflet campaign - an actual posted-to-our-doors leaflet campaign, on foot of a lot of very public commentary - by UKIP is not?

Because we seem to be falling into a pattern here of posters making statements, and repeating them, while apparently not being able or willing to defend them other than through sheer repetition.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Boroso

Scofflaw wrote: »

That's certainly so, but it's rather clear that such views are often decidedly one-sided, as we see here.

That in turn suggests that the strong views about such treatment are derived from already settled opinions about the way the EU runs itself, rather than vice-versa.

Of course that’s more than likely true for most opinions, but the fact it might be true does not invalidate an opinion, not does it diminish the strength of the opinion in the eyes of the beholder.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Do we have anyone willing to state how it is that campaign comments by one side are "threatening", while equally alarming claims by the other side are not? And how a comment by Sarkozy is "foreign interference" while a leaflet campaign - an actual posted-to-our-doors leaflet campaign, on foot of a lot of very public commentary - by UKIP is not?

I don’t think Sarkozy is foreign, neither do I think UKIP are foreign, so can’t answer that one for you.

However, you are smart enough to know that threatening is an irregular verb, “I persuade, you cajole, he threatens …”

The language we use merely flatters ourselves, perhaps, and is not in itself important. What is important is the underlying trend, and not the words we use.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Because we seem to be falling into a pattern here of posters making statements, and repeating them, while apparently not being able or willing to defend them other than through sheer repetition.

Well, this is not a court of law and is a discussion forum. I don’t require you, or anyone, to prove anything. If you are saying that an opinion is not valid because the holder can’t “prove” to your satisfaction the criteria he uses to hold an opinion, then we disagree.

I don’t look for, or seek, approval or agreement from anyone here, and nor should anyone else. All I wish to do is to discuss and occasionally outline my experience and, where possible, give evidence such as opinion polls or other relevant factual information as and when.

The rise of the “anti-Eu” parties is interesting and who knows where it will lead.

oscarBravo

Boroso wrote: »

All I wish to do is to discuss...

No. All you wish to do is soapbox. Discussion is the last thing you have any interest in, whether using this profile or any of the many others you've used to make a nuisance of yourself over the past several years.

Ruby4711

Boroso wrote: »

What has always interested me is how it is often remembered by others outside Ireland, as a sort of talisman for the way the EU works, and one man even said to me that it was as if Ireland was sent to bed early without any supper until it decided it was going to vote the "correct" way.

Like it or not, many people have strong views about such treatment, which is another peg in the wall in forming their opinion about the way the EU runs itself.

I'd be of a similar position myself. Once the executive sees itself as more important than the people to whom they are meant to serve, it's time for change. That's what happened in "Lisbon 2", that the project became more important that the people, and thats when the people all around Europe began to look more closely and more critically at the EU.

Since then we have seen the debt the institutions of the EU has forced on the irish people, and the astonishing thing is that so many in ireland still support the EU.

Scofflaw

Ruby4711 wrote: »

I'd be of a similar position myself. Once the executive sees itself as more important than the people to whom they are meant to serve, it's time for change. That's what happened in "Lisbon 2", that the project became more important that the people, and thats when the people all around Europe began to look more closely and more critically at the EU.

Since then we have seen the debt the institutions of the EU has forced on the irish people, and the astonishing thing is that so many in ireland still support the EU.

That might well be because the Irish people are aware that over 95% of our debt was taken on by the Irish governments they had repeatedly voted into office.

We have €192bn or so in general government debt. Of that, the amount possibly attributable to the refusal of the ECB to burn senior bonds in 2010 amounts to maybe €6-8bn. On the flip side, the amount of junior Irish bank bonds burned under the troika's management was €16bn, whereas the amount of junior bonds burned before that was a big fat zero.

With respect to the bank recapitalisation money - which at €64.1bn is only a third of our debts - 70% of that was spent before the troika got involved, too, and the remaining amount that was put in after the PCAR exercises in 2011 was unavoidable if the government didn't want to lose the 70% already put in.

Those are the facts - your preferred spin may vary, of course.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Ruby4711

Scofflaw wrote: »

That might well be because the Irish people are aware that over 95% of our debt was taken on by the Irish governments they had repeatedly voted into office.

It may well be that the Irish people don’t think it’s some sort of competition between one or the other. Just because Irish governments have been rotten, doesn’t mean the EU is marvellous, and I really don’t get the impression that the irish people see it as some sort of a competition.

Scofflaw wrote: »

With respect to the bank recapitalisation money - which at €64.1bn is only a third of our debts - 70% of that was spent before the troika got involved, too, and the remaining amount that was put in after the PCAR exercises in 2011 was unavoidable if the government didn't want to lose the 70% already put in.

Those are the facts - your preferred spin may vary, of course.

This is not a pantomime, where oh-yes-it-is-oh-no-it-isn’t is the order of the day. I don’t think many people across Europe see it as some sort of competition between the EU and national governments. The fact is that the EU is increasingly unpopular with the people of Europe, and the people of Europe seem to be no longer behind the drive for greater integration. Who said what to whom and when in Ireland a few years ago seems to miss that greater point.

oscarBravo

Boroso was just one of the latest incarnations of someone who feels the need to continue to sign up accounts to soapbox. Repeatedly signing up accounts to discuss wouldn't be too bad.

I have a feeling in my bones that yet another incarnation will be banned shortly.

This is off-topic, so I won't be discussing it further.

View

Ruby4711 wrote: »

[ The fact is that the EU is increasingly unpopular with the people of Europe, and the people of Europe seem to be no longer behind the drive for greater integration.

That seems to be wishful thinking on the part of posters here.

In the forthcoming elections to the EP, MEPs will be elected by the people on roughly a 3:1 (or 4:1) pro-EU:anti-EU basis.

Likewise, there is no member state where an anti-EU party or parties are likely to form a government (with the votes necessary to take their member state out of the EU).

djpbarry

View wrote: »

Likewise, there is no member state where an anti-EU party or parties are likely to form a government (with the votes necessary to take their member state out of the EU).

Indeed. Although, given how much media coverage Nigel Farage receives (for example), it's easy to forget that UKIP doesn't have a single MP.

kevin bd

Qoute's and opinions such as all of those above are the very reason why i usually stay away from politics. Free? I would love to have this explained to me sometime. Some persons opinion/version of freedom is another persons privilage. Western democracy is fueled by greed. Simple mind's and unenlightened persons. Eu, un, and the rest of the bull**** is just a screen.

Rightwing

Ruby4711 wrote: »

It may well be that the Irish people don’t think it’s some sort of competition between one or the other. Just because Irish governments have been rotten, doesn’t mean the EU is marvellous, and I really don’t get the impression that the irish people see it as some sort of a competition.



This is not a pantomime, where oh-yes-it-is-oh-no-it-isn’t is the order of the day. I don’t think many people across Europe see it as some sort of competition between the EU and national governments. The fact is that the EU is increasingly unpopular with the people of Europe, and the people of Europe seem to be no longer behind the drive for greater integration. Who said what to whom and when in Ireland a few years ago seems to miss that greater point.

I think the EU mean well, but are becoming increasingly out of touch with economic reality.

Ruby4711

View wrote: »

That seems to be wishful thinking on the part of posters here.

In the forthcoming elections to the EP, MEPs will be elected by the people on roughly a 3:1 (or 4:1) pro-EU:anti-EU basis.

Likewise, there is no member state where an anti-EU party or parties are likely to form a government (with the votes necessary to take their member state out of the EU).

It’s impressive you know how Europeans are going to vote, even down to knowing how many will vote one way or another in the future. Not having any psychic abilities myself, I generally prefer evidence, such as reputable polls, rather than clairvoyance.

The polls across Europe seem not to reflect your view, for example with UKIP in the UK polling ahead of the Conservatives and The Freedom Party in the Netherlands leading in the polls.

No one is claiming that UKIP will form the next government in the UK, but to dismiss support across Europe for anti EU parties, and pretending it is wishful thinking to read the polls which show the extent of support for such parties, might be unwise.

Rightwing wrote: »

I think the EU mean well, but are becoming increasingly out of touch with economic reality.

There is some evidence to suggest the EU is more in touch that it was, and it remains to be seen if the EU can turn it around and take back into the fold some of those who now support anti-EU parties, and stop the growth in those supporting such parties.

Bearing in mind the UK Royal family in a few short years turned the tide of public opinion about the Royal family, it’s possible.

However, rumblings of a new treaty to hand over more power to the EU, and take more power away from nation states, will probably do more than counteract a PR strategy to make the EU more popular.

Scofflaw

It’s impressive you know how Europeans are going to vote, even down to knowing how many will vote one way or another in the future. Not having any psychic abilities myself, I generally prefer evidence, such as reputable polls, rather than clairvoyance.

The polls across Europe seem not to reflect your view, for example with UKIP in the UK polling ahead of the Conservatives and The Freedom Party in the Netherlands leading in the polls.

An approximately 25% eurosceptic parliament is the most common prediction from the polls. The countries with strong eurosceptic parties are only part of the EU, and some of those parties have put in solid performances in previous euro elections (UKIP, for example, put in a solid 2009 performance, and even on current best polling would gain seats, but not spectacularly). In other countries anti-EU parties are very minor.

It might have been worth checking what the polls were actually saying before describing a poll-based prediction as "psychic" and claiming to prefer polls yourself.

regards,
Scofflaw

Ruby4711

Scofflaw wrote: »

An approximately 25% eurosceptic parliament is the most common prediction from the polls. The countries with strong eurosceptic parties are only part of the EU, and some of those parties have put in solid performances in previous euro elections (UKIP, for example, put in a solid 2009 performance, and even on current best polling would gain seats, but not spectacularly). In other countries anti-EU parties are very minor.

It might have been worth checking what the polls were actually saying before describing a poll-based prediction as "psychic" and claiming to prefer polls yourself.

regards,
Scofflaw

It might have been worth checking if ones interest was limited to predicting what might happen in one election.

My interest goes beyond that, and is in the wider picture in what is happening across Europe. Individual elections have little to tell us about medium and long term trends, and the interesting thing about the growth of anti-EU politics is the medium and long term trend.

Rightwing

Ruby4711 wrote: »

It’s impressive you know how Europeans are going to vote, even down to knowing how many will vote one way or another in the future. Not having any psychic abilities myself, I generally prefer evidence, such as reputable polls, rather than clairvoyance.

The polls across Europe seem not to reflect your view, for example with UKIP in the UK polling ahead of the Conservatives and The Freedom Party in the Netherlands leading in the polls.

No one is claiming that UKIP will form the next government in the UK, but to dismiss support across Europe for anti EU parties, and pretending it is wishful thinking to read the polls which show the extent of support for such parties, might be unwise.



There is some evidence to suggest the EU is more in touch that it was, and it remains to be seen if the EU can turn it around and take back into the fold some of those who now support anti-EU parties, and stop the growth in those supporting such parties.

Bearing in mind the UK Royal family in a few short years turned the tide of public opinion about the Royal family, it’s possible.

However, rumblings of a new treaty to hand over more power to the EU, and take more power away from nation states, will probably do more than counteract a PR strategy to make the EU more popular.

I think a big problem the British have is movement of people, and associated entitlements. I don't think they are wrong.

View

Ruby4711 wrote: »

It’s impressive you know how Europeans are going to vote, even down to knowing how many will vote one way or another in the future. Not having any psychic abilities myself, I generally prefer evidence, such as reputable polls, rather than clairvoyance.

I rely on the evidence of how people actually vote. Others can rely on wishful thinking if they prefer.

Ruby4711 wrote: »

The polls across Europe seem not to reflect your view, for example with UKIP in the UK polling ahead of the Conservatives and The Freedom Party in the Netherlands leading in the polls.

That may keep their supporters happy but they both remain minorities and will remain minorities for years to come based on current election results.

Ruby4711 wrote: »

No one is claiming that UKIP will form the next government in the UK, but to dismiss support across Europe for anti EU parties, and pretending it is wishful thinking to read the polls which show the extent of support for such parties, might be unwise.

Should they ever command a majority in their reapective parliaments or the EP they'll be in a position to implement their policies.

In the meantime, they aren't and it is the current pro-EU majorities in the parliaments of the member states and the EP that will win the votes to pursue their pro-EU agenda.

Scofflaw

Ruby4711 wrote: »

It might have been worth checking if ones interest was limited to predicting what might happen in one election.

My interest goes beyond that, and is in the wider picture in what is happening across Europe. Individual elections have little to tell us about medium and long term trends, and the interesting thing about the growth of anti-EU politics is the medium and long term trend.

Hmm. I would say that that's almost exactly wrong - in fact, you seem to be generalising from a couple of cherry-picked data points to claim a general trend which is not supported by the wider polls.

Others, such as LSE, have considered the picture across the whole of the EU, and their most probable outcome is a c.25% nationalist/anti-EU share of the next Parliament.

Now, they may be wrong, of course, as polls can be, but your claim that you are somehow relying on EU-wide polls is not something you've really shown to be the case. What polls are you using?

regards,
Scofflaw

Ruby4711

View wrote: »

I rely on the evidence of how people actually vote. Others can rely on wishful thinking if they prefer.

The only way you can know the result of an election which has not yet happened is if you claim you are a psychic. If you do think you are psychic, I’d suggest you call up Mr Randi and claim his million dollar prize.

Scofflaw wrote: »

Hmm. I would say that that's almost exactly wrong - in fact, you seem to be generalising from a couple of cherry-picked data points to claim a general trend which is not supported by the wider polls.

Others, such as LSE, have considered the picture across the whole of the EU, and their most probable outcome is a c.25% nationalist/anti-EU share of the next Parliament.

Now, they may be wrong, of course, as polls can be, but your claim that you are somehow relying on EU-wide polls is not something you've really shown to be the case. What polls are you using?

regards,
Scofflaw

There have been many polls across the EU, and I have not the time to search out for you all the polls I have looked at over the years.

However, I’d suggest you start with the Eurobarometer poll run by the EU, and the most recent one was done in 2013.

You’ll see there that trust in the EU is at its lowest level since records began, with less than one in three EU citizens expressing trust in the EU in 2013.

Contrary to popular opinion, the UK is not the most Eurosceptic country, and Cyprus was the country with the least trust in the EU, as just 13 per cent of those asked said they trusted the European union.

All EU countries, except Finland and Sweden, have seen trust levels drop from 2007.

Support for European Union membership was at its peak in 1991 with 71 per cent across the bloc saying they supported their country's membership, while in the same year the UK recorded an all-time high with 57 per cent.



Last year, just one in three people in the UK viewed EU membership as positive, with only Cyprus and the Czech Republic registering lower figures.
UKIP are currently polling around 26% in advance of the forthcoming EU Elections, and at a corresponding period before the 2009 EU elections, UKIP was polling around 7%.


This wouldn’t mean much if it’s just one snapshot, or if it’s the result of dissatisfaction for an isolate event, such as the financial crises, or anything transient. Where it might be important is if it’s part of a longer term trend.

View

Ruby4711 wrote: »

The only way you can know the result of an election which has not yet happened is if you claim you are a psychic. If you do think you are psychic, I’d suggest you call up Mr Randi and claim his million dollar prize.

I have made no such claim. You are the one making claims about the opinions of the electorate(s) within the EU despite the clear evidence of how the electorate(s) have voted in elections and that of current opinion polls which point toward the combined pro-EU parties continuing to command the support of the overwhelming majority of voters both at member state level and at EP level. Such voter opinion could of course change between now and late May but it would take an astonishing political earthquake to do so.

You can believe that to be imminent or not if you wish. I personally see no reason why it would radically change from a roughly 3:1 ratio between now and then.

djpbarry

Ruby4711 wrote: »

The only way you can know the result of an election which has not yet happened is if you claim you are a psychic.

Accurate predictions can be made. For example, Nate Silver correctly predicted the outcome of the 2012 US Presidential Election in almost every state.

Scofflaw

Ruby4711 wrote: »

The only way you can know the result of an election which has not yet happened is if you claim you are a psychic. If you do think you are psychic, I’d suggest you call up Mr Randi and claim his million dollar prize.


There have been many polls across the EU, and I have not the time to search out for you all the polls I have looked at over the years.

However, I’d suggest you start with the Eurobarometer poll run by the EU, and the most recent one was done in 2013.

You’ll see there that trust in the EU is at its lowest level since records began, with less than one in three EU citizens expressing trust in the EU in 2013.

Contrary to popular opinion, the UK is not the most Eurosceptic country, and Cyprus was the country with the least trust in the EU, as just 13 per cent of those asked said they trusted the European union.

All EU countries, except Finland and Sweden, have seen trust levels drop from 2007.

Support for European Union membership was at its peak in 1991 with 71 per cent across the bloc saying they supported their country's membership, while in the same year the UK recorded an all-time high with 57 per cent.

Last year, just one in three people in the UK viewed EU membership as positive, with only Cyprus and the Czech Republic registering lower figures.

When quoting from a source, such as the Telegraph, as here, please indicate that you're quoting, and give a link to the article: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/10586961/Trust-in-EU-at-an-all-time-low-latest-figures-show.html

UKIP are currently polling around 26% in advance of the forthcoming EU Elections, and at a corresponding period before the 2009 EU elections, UKIP was polling around 7%.

Er, yes, but does that mean they'll repeat the same trick of doubling their support?

To be honest, I'm not sure you understand what you're claiming. You are dismissing polls of voting intention in the 2014 euro elections - the ones we're talking about - by referring to polls of "levels of trust in the EU".

That would require you to be able to accurately project the results of those Eurobarometer trust figures onto party voting intentions, something which would be a very large breakthrough in voting prediction if you had actually done it. Unfortunately, you haven't actually done it.

Essentially, you prefer your own personal and rather 'psychic' projections from the trust polls to polls of voter intention, because they give you a falsely large impression of the current support for eurosceptical parties.

You're entitled to your preference, of course, but were I you I would be very much less quick to deride people using polls of voting intention as "psychics", and the polls themselves as "inaccurate", when your own predictions are based on polls that don't even measure that intention.

Ruby4711 wrote: »

This wouldn’t mean much if it’s just one snapshot, or if it’s the result of dissatisfaction for an isolate event, such as the financial crises, or anything transient. Where it might be important is if it’s part of a longer term trend.

The Telegraph article you quoted explains it as a result of the current crisis, so I'm not sure on what basis you're claiming otherwise, other than that the idea appeals to you.



The drop in trust for the EU rather visibly follows the crisis, and is matched by a drop in trust for national parliaments and governments. Such falls in trust are extremely well known to be associated with recessions and crises, and the attempt to claim it as some kind of long-term slow-growing rejection of the EU is sorely strained.

I appreciate you want things to work out well for your preferred side in the elections, and I would imagine you will have reason to be pleased come the day, but I think you're currently making the kind of projections that partisan supporters always make - and such back of a fag packet calculations of sweeping victories rarely come true.

cordially,
Scofflaw

McDave

sin_city wrote: »

Firstly, Norway does have oil. The reason they are not a member is because the people from Norway voted no. We did this too but we were pressurized into voting again. You can say what you like, if our vote was respected it would not have been necessary to have double referendum votes.

You have given no basis for the rubbish argument of "a different matter" in the case of Switzerland coming to an end.

And Iceland? Oh yeah...if they didn't have the balls to stand up to the bankers...they'd be in the EU too.

You originally said:

Just look at how Norway and Switzerland do without being in the EU.

Norway is doing so well because of its oil revenues. Take them out and Norway would be financially poorer off. No doubt they would survive fine without oil and the EU. But you can't seriously pose a question about how Norway is doing without reference to its oil industry.

Switzerland has done well for centuries largely on its own terms. It's a very particular kind of country which has managed physical security and industriousness to its own unique advantage.

Neither is in any way comparable to Ireland or its circumstances.

As for Iceland, it would be interesting to see how we would have managed with the kind of cuts to pay and jobs, and the hikes in mortgage payments Icelanders had to endure. They paid a high price for their financial misadventures.

oceanman

id say they just took a look at where we are and said thanks no thanks...

sin_city

McDave wrote: »

You originally said:

Norway is doing so well because of its oil revenues. Take them out and Norway would be financially poorer off. No doubt they would survive fine without oil and the EU. But you can't seriously pose a question about how Norway is doing without reference to its oil industry.

So, from this are you saying that countries like Finland and Sweden will have more similar economic growth with the likes of Greece, Cyprus, Portugal and Spain than they would with Norway.

Is it a case of the Nordic economies doing well despite the EU?

If Scotland were independent they'd also be better off outside the EU?

If Denmark gains access to large oil reserves in the Arctic through Greenland should they leave?

McDave wrote: »

Switzerland has done well for centuries largely on its own terms. It's a very particular kind of country which has managed physical security and industriousness to its own unique advantage.

Rubbish explanation, no content...on its own terms, very particular kind of country? What's that? :rolleyes:

Mate, its a mountainous country that was not worth the trouble invading in the past which has led it to be neutral in wars that involved others around them.....hmmm, Ireland 1945?

I would say Switzerland has more in common with Luxembourg than Ireland does.

We could try to model ourselves on the Swiss economy if we wanted as a long term objective.

McDave wrote: »

As for Iceland, it would be interesting to see how we would have managed with the kind of cuts to pay and jobs, and the hikes in mortgage payments Icelanders had to endure. They paid a high price for their financial misadventures.

It would be interesting to see how we would have managed if we did the right thing as Iceland did?

Are you questioning them not paying a banks debt or that they put some of the bankers in prison?

I believe Ireland is paying a higher price than Iceland.