Are you going to pay the household charge? [Part 1]

gigino

lividduck wrote: »

One way or another they have tied themselves to the rock of austerity .....

As long as the Croke Park Agreement is in place nobody can say they have tied themselves to the rock of austerity. Spending 17 or 18 billion a year on the public service now when we used to only spend half that ten years ago is not austerity , do not fool yourself.
When they tackle that I'll pay the 100 quid. I'll go to jail otherwise, and hundreds of thousands like me.

lividduck

gigino wrote: »

As long as the Croke Park Agreement is in place nobody can say they have tied themselves to the rock of austerity. Spending 17 or 18 billion a year on the public service now when we used to only spend half that ten years ago is not austerity , do not fool yourself.
When they tackle that I'll pay the 100 quid. I'll go to jail otherwise, and hundreds of thousands like me.

Oh I agree Croke Park is a disgrace, totally. I would disagree that we had no problems in the public service 10 years ago though, it has been a problem for decades. Mant in it are only interested in protcting their little fifedoms. Our teachers are overpaid and underworked, as are many others yet demand new entrants get old overpaid conditions.
My point is that the Government will find another means to get the money, they will just screw us another way, and perhaps a way without waivers, increased vat etc.
BTW they wont be sending anyone to jail, they just put a charge on your house.

gigino

lividduck wrote: »

Oh I agree Croke Park is a disgrace, totally. I would disagree that we had no problems in the public service 10 years ago though, it has been a problem for decades. Mant in it are only interested in protcting their little fifedoms. Our teachers are overpaid and underworked, as are many others yet demand new entrants get old overpaid conditions.
My point is that the Government will find another means to get the money, they will just screw us another way, and perhaps a way without waivers, increased vat etc.
BTW they wont be sending anyone to jail, they just put a charge on your house.

Increasing vat more will kill the goose thats laying the golden eggs...the more they increase the vat rate the less they will take in....and the more they kill the economy. Its so easy now for people to shop online from other jurisdictions. The government is being greedy and already charging 23% as opposed to 20% in the north : they are better getting twenty or perhaps 23% of something than 25% of nothing.
If the government puts a charge on your house, it will be a extra beurocratric nightmare and increasing property tax to a grand a year or more will only depress the property market further...causing more pain and trouble for everyone from people in negative equity to the banks to nama.

The only serious way to get out of the mess is by doing what the government done in the late eighties / early nineties, under Mac the knife McSharry , then minister for finance.....cut expenditure drastically.

People have paid tens of thousands in property tax already through stamp duty.

lividduck

gigino wrote: »

Increasing vat more will kill the goose thats laying the golden eggs...the more they increase the vat rate the less they will take in....and the more they kill the economy. Its so easy now for people to shop online from other jurisdictions. The government is being greedy and already charging 23% as opposed to 20% in the north : they are better getting twenty or perhaps 23% of something than 25% of nothing.
If the government puts a charge on your house, it will be a extra beurocratric nightmare and increasing property tax to a grand a year or more will only depress the property market further...causing more pain and trouble for everyone from people in negative equity to the banks to nama.

The only serious way to get out of the mess is by doing what the government done in the late eighties / early nineties, under Mac the knife McSharry , then minister for finance.....cut expenditure drastically.

People have paid tens of thousands in property tax already through stamp duty.

Again, Im not disagreeing with you on what the SHOULD do, Im merely speculating as to what they are likely to do.

gigino

lividduck wrote: »

Again, Im not disagreeing with you on what the SHOULD do, Im merely speculating as to what they are likely to do.

I agree with you so, and its no wonder so many people are emigrating. If I was youg enough myself again / had no mortgage I would go too.

dxhound2005

Sunday Times poll included questions on Househould Charge, see pages 9/10.

http://issuu.com/behaviour_and_attitudes/docs/sunday-times-february-opinion-poll-report

Of those who haven't paid yet 44% will pay, 36% won't 20% don't know. Add the 10% who have already paid and say half of the don't knows and you could see over 60% payng.

Unless CAHWT do something spectacular in the next month (like getting Sinn Fein on board) I cannot see where their campaign is going. If over 60% pay I think the Government would be happy enough to sit back and add the fines/interest/arrears to future bills and fight that battle next year and beyond.

dvpower

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Sunday Times poll included questions on Househould Charge, see pages 9/10.

http://issuu.com/behaviour_and_attitudes/docs/sunday-times-february-opinion-poll-report

Of those who haven't paid yet 44% will pay, 36% won't 20% don't know. Add the 10% who have already paid and say half of the don't knows and you could see over 60% payng.

Unless CAHWT do something spectacular in the next month (like getting Sinn Fein on board) I cannot see where their campaign is going. If over 60% pay I think the Government would be happy enough to sit back and add the fines/interest/arrears to future bills and fight that battle next year and beyond.

It'll be even more than that; the question was about intention to pay by the deadline. There will be some who intend to pay sometime after the deadline.

Ghandee

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Sunday Times poll included questions on Househould Charge, see pages 9/10.

http://issuu.com/behaviour_and_attitudes/docs/sunday-times-february-opinion-poll-report

Of those who haven't paid yet 44% will pay, 36% won't 20% don't know. Add the 10% who have already paid and say half of the don't knows and you could see over 60% payng.

Unless CAHWT do something spectacular in the next month (like getting Sinn Fein on board) I cannot see where their campaign is going. If over 60% pay I think the Government would be happy enough to sit back and add the fines/interest/arrears to future bills and fight that battle next year and beyond.

A lot of speculation and hoping is all this is.

Again I'll stress that the charge doesn't apply to me as my estate its exempt.

Anyways, 60% allegedly/optimistically would hardly be good enough?:rolleyes:
(all this according to the Sunday times lol )

Last we heard from official sources was 90,000 (RTE) Which was well below 10%
A massive non compliance of forty percent would surely clog the system ?


As for the govt being happy enough to sit back? Correct me if i'm wrong, but the govt, (hell, the country) is broke!

They need cash, and they need it now! I can't see them being happy to sit back, far from it actually.
?

Slick50

dvpower wrote:

The anti charge campaign must be hoping this is the case. The turnouts for the protests were very poor.

There were 40 protests around the country, averaging 300, that's 12,000 protesters. If they were marching down O'Connell st. in one protest, it would have had a far greater impact. I'm not marching, and I'm not paying.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Sunday Times poll included questions on Househould Charge, see pages 9/10.

http://issuu.com/behaviour_and_attitudes/docs/sunday-times-february-opinion-poll-report

Of those who haven't paid yet 44% will pay, 36% won't 20% don't know. Add the 10% who have already paid and say half of the don't knows and you could see over 60% payng.

I don't think your statistics add up there. Using your equation... 36% won't pay, add the 90% that haven't paid, and half the don't knows? You could see 136% not paying.?

dxhound2005 wrote: »

If over 60% pay I think the Government would be happy enough to sit back and add the fines/interest/arrears to future bills and fight that battle next year and beyond.

I think the government would be delighted if 60% pay up by the march deadline.

dvpower

Slick50 wrote: »

There were 40 protest around the country, averaging 300, that's 12,000 protesters. If they were marching down O'Connell in one protest, it would have had a far greater impact. I'm not marching, and I'm not paying.

Take Cork for example. They had around 500 protesters. It looks like this campaign is being fought by hard core activists only and they haven't got the public on board.

The numbers we saw yesterday aren't going to lead to the overturning of the tax.

gigino

Ghandee wrote: »

As for the govt being happy enough to sit back? Correct me if i'm wrong, but the govt, (hell, the country) is broke!

They need cash, and they need it now!

They are not broke and they will squander it even if they get it. Even if 300,000 houses pay the 100 euro charge, that will raise only 30 million. To put things in perspective, the government is giving its own employees who are retiring this Spring a total of 600 million. Why keep public expenditure double what it was ten years ago and then crucify the economy further by imposing yet another tax. Some people have paid 9% stamp duty, thats their property tax paid.

Nodin

gigino wrote: »

They are not broke and they will squander it even if they get it. Even if 300,000 houses pay the 100 euro charge, that will raise only 30 million. To put things in perspective, the government is giving its own employees who are retiring this Spring a total of 600 million. Why keep public expenditure double what it was ten years ago and then crucify the economy further by imposing yet another tax. Some people have paid 9% stamp duty, thats their property tax paid.

The record stuck again?

dvpower

Slick50 wrote: »

I don't think your statistics add up there. Using your equation... 36% won't pay, add the 90% that haven't paid, and half the don't knows? You could see 136% not paying.?

You're badly double counting here.

dvpower

Ghandee wrote: »

A lot of speculation and hoping is all this is.

Speculation? It was survey findings.

Slick50

dvpower wrote: »

Take Cork for example. They had around 500 protesters. It looks like this campaign is being fought by hard core activists only and they haven't got the public on board.

The numbers we saw yesterday aren't going to lead to the overturning of the tax.

You're probably right on both counts above, not including "the public on board" bit, but the proof of the pudding will be how many register and pay.

dvpower wrote: »

Quote:

Originally Posted by Slick50
I don't think your statistics add up there. Using your equation... 36% won't pay, add the 90% that haven't paid, and half the don't knows? You could see 136% not paying.?Quote:

You're badly double counting here.

Are you actually a politician?, because you have an uncanny knack for miss-interpreting or miss-representing my posts

But to give you the benefit of the doubt, let me clarify. I was merely using dxhound's calculations on the NO figures to demonstrate how his sum was wrong. Didn't you spot that for yourself?

dvpower wrote: »

Speculation? It was survey findings.

It was a survey of 912 people. This poll has a larger sample between the yes's and no's alone, and completely contradicts their's.

dvpower

Slick50 wrote: »

But to give you the benefit of the doubt, let me clarify. I was merely using dxhound's calculations on the NO figures to demonstrate how his sum was wrong. Didn't you spot that for yourself?

No. I've had another look and I can't see what's so wrong with what dxhound says.
He assumes half of the 'Don't Knows' will pay and he has the numbers who have already paid as 10% - not unreasonable numbers - that does bring it to around 60% paying by the deadline.
You may be missing the base of the survey i.e. "All who have not yet paid".

Slick50 wrote: »

It was a survey of 912 people. This poll has a larger sample between the yes's and no's alone, and completely contradicts their's.

c. 1000 is a pretty standard sample size for a professionally carried out survey. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you the various ways a professional survey is far superior to a boards poll.

mikom

Slick50 wrote: »

It was a survey of 912 people.

dvpower wrote: »

c. 1000 is a pretty standard sample size for a professionally carried out survey. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you the various ways a professional survey is far superior to a boards poll.

I'm sure you don't need me to tell YOU how an absence of 78 people from a poll of 1000 can greatly skew its results.

dvpower

mikom wrote: »

I'm sure you don't need me to tell YOU how an absence of 78 people from a poll of 1000 can greatly skew its results.

Not quite sure what you're getting at - the sample size was 914, not 1000. There is no 'absence of 78 people'.

The technical appendix of the poll has the accuracy of this poll being +/- 3.3% at a 95% confidence level.

mikom

dvpower wrote: »

Not quite sure what you're getting at - the sample size was 914, not 1000.

So not a pretty standard sample size as you alluded to.

Slick50

dvpower wrote: »

No. I've had another look and I can't see what's so wrong with what dxhound says.

Enouh said.

dvpower wrote: »

You're badly double counting here.

Where did you see the error?

dvpower wrote: »

He assumes half of the 'Don't Knows' will pay and he has the numbers who have already paid as 10% - not unreasonable numbers - that does bring it to around 60% paying by the deadline.

I used exactly the same method to calculate the "won't pay's" as dxhound used for the "will pay's". You spotted it quick enough then. None more blind than those who won't see.

dvpower wrote: »

You may be missing the base of the survey i.e. "All who have not yet paid".

Has no bearing on the error of dx's calculations

dvpower wrote: »

c. 1000 is a pretty standard sample size for a professionally carried out survey. I'm sure you don't need me to tell you the various ways a professional survey is far superior to a boards poll.

Yes, just like all their GE polls.:cool:

Ghandee

dvpower wrote: »

Speculation? It was survey findings.

Speculation/assumption. (dxhound presuming don't knows will pay etc)

More or less the same thing.

dvpower

mikom wrote: »

So not a pretty standard sample size as you alluded to.

I said circa 1000 was a standard size - this was 9% off 1000, so it is in the region.
They've published their margin of error figures, for a poll of the size they conducted, in the poll documentation. I'm not sure what point, if any, you're attempting to make.

dvpower

Slick50 wrote: »

Enouh said.
Where did you see the error?

36% won't pay, add the 90% that haven't paid

You're adding the 36% of people who 'haven't paid and won't pay' to the 90% who haven't paid - you're counting the 'haven't paid' twice (and then attributing them to the 'won't pay' figure).

dvpower

Ghandee wrote: »

Speculation/assumption. (dxhound presuming don't knows will pay etc)

More or less the same thing.

dxhound presumed that 50% of the don't knows will pay (and the other 50% won't pay). It is an assumption for sure, but a generous one for the anti-charge side, since most of the people who had made up their minds are going to pay.

Ghandee wrote: »

A lot of speculation and hoping is all this is.

I take it that you accept that the opinion poll results aren't just 'a lot of speculation and hoping'?

Ghandee

dvpower wrote: »

dxhound presumed that 50% of the don't knows will pay (and the other 50% won't pay). It is an assumption for sure, but a generous one for the anti-charge side, since most of the people who had made up their minds are going to pay.



I take it that you accept that the opinion poll results aren't just 'a lot of speculation and hoping'?

I accept it, yeah.

But at the end of the day, its an opinion poll, that's all tbh.
The real figures that matter are the ones who've registered/payed to date, and the reality of that figure is a paltry 9%.

I'm not arguing by the way, just separating opinions from facts.

mikom

dvpower wrote: »

I said circa 1000 was a standard size - this was 9% off 1000, so it is in the region.
They've published their margin of error figures, for a poll of the size they conducted, in the poll documentation. I'm not sure what point, if any, you're attempting to make.

I'll be back to you about your "margin for error" when the concrete results come in at the end of next month.

Am Chile

Ghandee wrote: »

I accept it, yeah.

But at the end of the day, its an opinion poll, that's all tbh.
The real figures that matter are the ones who've registered/payed to date, and the reality of that figure is a paltry 9%.

I'm not arguing by the way, just separating opinions from facts.

Currently 9% near the end of february, so just to calculate it, The rate of registration/payment for January was 5%, its currently at 9%, meaning for february an extra 4% registered/payed for the month of february.

mikom

Am Chile wrote: »

Currently 9% near the end of february, so just to calculate it, The rate of registration/payment for January was 5%, its currently at 9%, meaning for february an extra 4% registered/payed for the month of february.

A drop of 1% in momentum.
Warms the cockles of my heart.

ebixa82

Why would you not pay it?

squod

ebixa82 wrote: »

Why would you not pay it?

Read through the last three and a half thousand posts............