Paddy's Tipping delights

So, here I am, a decent bloke who tries to help out those less inclined to do some research on their own tips, in this thread I'll be helping those out by posting my own tips and keeping you up to date daily/bi-daily on my stakes and profit/loss made by each bet. Firstly I'll be introducing this thread by outlining my own personal rules for betting; which are as follows:

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1) Never chase Losses!
2) Avoid betting on sport just because your bored or for interest, the money you will most likely lose could be invested into something much more profitable.
3) Singles are always better than accumulators.
4) Research, research research. My brother lost an accumulator today because he went on form rather than team news, find out as much as you can to put you in the best position as possible.
5) DON'T bet on horses, odds are too market orientated and oftentimes the favourite is dependent on the word of a couple of lads "in the know"", also one fence can feck up a horse's race, remember Kauto Star? Expect that to happen to Frankel.
6) Open up as many bookmaker accounts as possible, always place your bets at the highest possible price available to maximise your advantage over the bookmakers.
7) Never bet on Casino or 'Games'. Mugs lose money on these every day.
8) Its always advised to increase the stake and lower the risk rather than lower the stake and increase the risk.
9) Asian handicap is the best market to bet on apart from arb's, as the market total is priced higher than any other market. E.g. even chance would be 1.925 vs 1.925 which is higher than fractional odds of 5/6 vs 5/6 (Bet365) and 10/11 vs 10/11 (WH). This minimises the advantage that the bookmaker has.
11) Avoid betting when under the influence of alcohol or any other substance.
12) Cover bets, never assume a bet is safe, its always better to 'green out' than risk loosing your stake.
13) Always check your bets thoroughly before pressing 'place'. Make sure you've not placed on the wrong market.

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I've been tipping on the private site for some time now and so I thought I'd add my tips on here too! I hope you learn something and start making money yourself from learning from my advice and seeing profit.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

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5) DON'T bet on horses, odds are too market orientated and oftentimes the favourite is dependent on the word of a couple of lads "in the know"", also one fence can feck up a horse's race, remember Kauto Star? Expect that to happen to Frankel..............

Best of luck with your log, I don't agree with some aspects of point 5 though
Frankel doesn't go over fences too btw.

@19

My starting bank will be €1000, This can be followed in any way, but to help you to realise what exactly you should be placing I'll be doing my bets in units, there will be 3 stake sizes, they are as follows:

Small Stake = 1 unit = 25 euro.
Medium Stake = 2 units = 50 euro.
Large Stake = 4 units = 100 euro.

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There isn't an awful lot of value for Monday, but there may be some when I do a tad more searching. My First tip on this page shall be on a game not too far from home, on this match:

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/other-leagues/northern-ireland/northern-ireland-premier-league/donegal-celtic-v-cliftonville/winner

The tip is Cliftonville to beat Donegal Celtic in the IFA Premiership, both sides are suffering from different fortunes in this season, Cliftonville though have lost their 2 last matches both against Coleraine, a side who’re on a great patch of form. The odds for Cliftonville are incredibly high considering that before the losses to Cliftonville they had won their previous 13 matches comfortably. While on the other hand Donegal Celtic are one of the worst sides in the league (in my opinion), they’ve got one of the worst home records in the league only winning 3 of their games, with one of them coming against Wakehurst who’re in a lower division. Whenever though they have won in the league its been a tight affair where only 1 goal is in between it, I’m disregarding Cliftonville’s recent dip in form for this one as their price is FAR too high. This tip is in advance as the game is on the 21st you won’t get higher odds than the 1.83 which is being offered on Williamhill.

Cliftonville to win: 1.67
WilliamHill


Kick-off: 21st December @19:45


The market for this match has already been as low as 1.53 on PP, and if you were lucky enough to get on it yesterday you could have gotten on it at 1.85. Remarkable odds.


This shall be a high stake so you'll be placing 4 units on it. Your return should either be -4 units or 2.68 units profit.


Cliftonvilles form is available from here:
http://www.soccerway.com/teams/northern-ireland/cliftonville-fc/matches/


Donegal Celtic's form is available here:
http://www.soccerway.com/teams/northern-ireland/donegal-celtic-fsc/matches/


Head2Head form is available here:
http://www.soccerway.com/matches/2011/04/01/northern-ireland/ifa-premiership/cliftonville-fc/donegal-celtic-fsc/1099158/head2head/


An interesting fact to take from this is that from their previous 14 games Cliftonville have won 9 of the 14 matches, drawn 5 and only lost one. Enjoy.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Best of luck with your log, I don't agree with some aspects of point 5 though
Frankel doesn't go over fences too btw.

Some lads like Pyro seem to have it down, I only ever back and lay them myself on the place markets, I guess if you know enough or have enough of an idea about the horse in the race you'll be a better person than most when it comes to it, but the majority of punters seem to just place on horses in hope rather than in knowledge, at least with football betting you can find value in the market and place on it, I know no one event is the same in football either and it is an unpredictable sport to bet on, but with enough research we can limit losses and maximise profit.

ft9

Are you successful?

wolfyboy555

Looking forward to following! You have a great record on the private site and know your stuff! do you have a particular target to reach from 1000?

UrbanSea

ft9 wrote: »

Are you successful?

He is 9.

Good luck Paddy.

ft9

ft9 wrote: »

Are you successful?

Thats quite an open ended question.

wolfyboy555 wrote: »

Looking forward to following! You have a great record on the private site and know your stuff! do you have a particular target to reach from 1000?

Nope, not particularly, I just have a side fund which is for arbs and this is for betting, about 5k in bankroll, 4k split to arbs and I put away a certain amount into a savings scheme. I'm just making sure to have a certain amount able to stake at any one time so that I can live off of my profits. I'm already up 450 in the last 4 days, 50:50 from arbitrage/betting.

I'll be aiming to double up by the new year.

SteelyDanJalapeno

Kill em Paddy,

ft9

Deleted User wrote: »

Thats quite an open ended question.

I'l simplify it for you. Are you making money or losing money as a result of gambling?

Answer seems obvious now from other replies. Best of luck

shocksy

Best of luck, look forward to seeing some of your tips

An interesting thing to take note of about the Cliftonville game is the probability and change in markets, as this game is on the 21st, the odds are going to continue when the masses start placing on the favourites come the hour before kick off meaning probability is likely to increase. At these times where odds shorten you can either choose to hold out for the tip, or to trade out, many times when watching a match you can see who is on top and if your side is still priced favorably it is advised to trade out and to save you from losing as much money as possible.



Here is the probability and the odds change from the match at hand. As you can see money is already on Cliftonville to win, the odds could shorten to as low at 1.44 for them to win, so I'd recommend to get on early to maximise potential profit from this bet.

@2

The only real bet which interests me for the 19th of December is this:

85% of the money staked on this game in the Serie B is on under 2.5. its between 2 sides who're playing quite decent but with Sampdoria struggling for goals and having one of the strongest defences in the Division its hard seeing lots of goals in it, Sampdoria's last six games have had a total of 7 goals from both sides in it, I can't see it being any different today as Sampdoria have only been in 1 game with over 2.5 goals in their last 9 outings. Available at the ridiculously high price of 2.75 on StanJames.

Sampdoria have the 3rd best defense in the league, and are no doubt going to be a hard task for Pescara to break down tomorrow, there is too much value in this one to ignore.

Small stake on Under 2.5 goals. The 2.75 is already available to be layed on betfair at a value of 2.58, when taking into account commission you're able to get a yield of 1.2%, odds though are shortening on VC, Betfair and WBX, all the money placed on the market is on unders in this one, and well, the price could drop well below the 2.38 offered on most sites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/italy/serie-b/pescara-v-sampdoria/over-under-2.5

TIP IS SMALL STAKE ON UNDER 2.5 @2.75

KO @ 19.45

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

My starting bank will be €1000, ..................

Small Stake = 1 unit = 25 euro.
Medium Stake = 2 units = 50 euro.
Large Stake = 4 units = 100 euro.

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Deleted User wrote: »

...........



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I'll be aiming to double up by the new year.

This will be savage :cool:
A grand from a bank of a grand in 10/11 days :cool:

yesno1234

Deleted User wrote: »

The only real bet which interests me for the 19th of December is this:

85% of the money staked on this game in the Serie B is on under 2.5. its between 2 sides who're playing quite decent but with Sampdoria struggling for goals and having one of the strongest defences in the Division its hard seeing lots of goals in it, Sampdoria's last six games have had a total of 7 goals from both sides in it, I can't see it being any different today as Sampdoria have only been in 1 game with over 2.5 goals in their last 9 outings. Available at the ridiculously high price of 2.75 on StanJames.

Sampdoria have the 3rd best defense in the league, and are no doubt going to be a hard task for Pescara to break down tomorrow, there is too much value in this one to ignore.

Small stake on Under 2.5 goals. The 2.75 is already available to be layed on betfair at a value of 2.58, when taking into account commission you're able to get a yield of 1.2%, odds though are shortening on VC, Betfair and WBX, all the money placed on the market is on unders in this one, and well, the price could drop well below the 2.38 offered on most sites.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/italy/serie-b/pescara-v-sampdoria/over-under-2.5

TIP IS SMALL STAKE ON UNDER 2.5 @2.75

KO @ 19.45

Word of warning in respect of this, generally when it's too good to be true, it is and with the history of fixes in Italy I'm not going to follow you on this. Best of luck though and hopefully I'm wrong.

That's the only reason as to why I'm going small stake on it, I can't see a team like Sampdoria causing any chances of a possible promotion any more harm by fixing their results, currently they're mid table and to fix it in any way it would hamper their already poor chance of promotion, they've not got the firepower to score many either, I think the odds are skewed in such a way due to Pescara's scoring form if anything.

Were it anywhere other than Italy or Turkey though, this would definitely be a very large stake.

yesno1234

Deleted User wrote: »

That's the only reason as to why I'm going small stake on it, I can't see a team like Sampdoria causing any chances of a possible promotion any more harm by fixing their results, currently they're mid table and to fix it in any way it would hamper their already poor chance of promotion, they've not got the firepower to score many either, I think the odds are skewed in such a way due to Pescara's scoring form if anything.

Were it anywhere other than Italy or Turkey though, this would definitely be a very large stake.

Good start Paddy, followed ya with a €10 in the end.

Lefty2Guns

Finished 1 nil to Pescara. Gd shout. I went with under 3.5 goals with PP at 2/1 ON, should of took your advice and went with the under 2.5. Still a happy camper though. I will be following this thread from now on.

Pescara v Sampdoria
FT: 1-0

Unders came flying in! I'll have a gander at the DFB Pokal tomorrow to find the best value. Initial interest is in the handicap bets on Bayern and Dortmund, once I hear the team news I'll announce my intent.

Anyway, thats a decent start to the log.

+1.75 units!

Current Bank: 41.75 units.

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Don't forget, tomorrow, Cliftonville to win is the tip.

BOHtox

Deleted User wrote: »

Pescara v Sampdoria
FT: 1-0

Unders came flying in! I'll have a gander at the DFB Pokal tomorrow to find the best value. Initial interest is in the handicap bets on Bayern and Dortmund, once I hear the team news I'll announce my intent.

Anyway, thats a decent start to the log.

+1.75 units!

Current Bank: 41.75 units.

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Don't forget, tomorrow, Cliftonville to win is the tip.

I think that match is on the following day.

BOHtox

BOHtox wrote: »

I think that match is on the following day.

CORRECT! Its on the Wednesday, I'll give the Pokal a look tomorrow to look for something to keep you interested.

elefant

Nice one Paddy! Think I'll follow you on a few more of these (with considerably smaller bets I must admit )

buzztastic

Good luck with it, i think organisation and discipline are important in betting and you definitely seem to have the organisation down.

Okay well, I've done a tiny bit of research for tomorrow, this isn't the tip as of yet, its just some thoughts on what I've found so far.

So here it is! Simple one tomorrow.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/european-football/france/ligue-2/monaco-v-clermont-foot

Looking at this, you'll think, Monaco, former champions league runners up, recently relegated to Ligue 2 with what should have been a good squad to contend in the 2nd division, and Clermont Foot, a side who's name includes foot, so you can only presume that they stink? Right? Wrong. Two sides here who're in completely opposite sides of the table, one on the top, while the other on the bottom. Clermont are the top of the division are are surprisingly underdogs in this battle. This makes me wary of it, so as of yet I've not tipped it, based on my knowledge of the league there isn't many "dodgy" affairs and yet I feel as if the Bookies have an inside knowledge to this one, so until closer to kick off I won't be tipping this bet.

http://www.soccerway.com/teams/france/clermont-foot-auvergne/matches/

Looking at this from an outside perspective its 1st against last tomorrow in Ligue 2, not a tip for tomorrow, but I'm wondering what other people think of it:

Asian Handicap 0: Clermont Foot = 2.25 188Bet
Asian Handicap +0.5: Clermont Foot = 1.57 Bet365

Monaco have not won in their last 4 home games, drawing 3 and losing 1, and their most recent victory at home was to Arles, only a position above them in the table in 19th place. Shocking form, while Clermont have won 4 of their last 5 games and have only lost on their travels once to Nantes during a period in which Nantes were on a 6 game no lose streak, Clermont should win tomorrow, but these are the two safest bets.

Effectively going by form, Clermont should win, but I'm apprehensive. Sorry to sound cliché'd here, but if something sounds too good to be true, it probably is, in this matter I'm going to research this bet a bit more before I place my bet on it tomorrow.

My current knowledge of the match in terms of injuries is as follows:
~
Monaco missing 3 players through suspension, Clermont are full strength as far as I am aware.
~

From the knowledge I've attained I can see on Pinaccle (one of the sites whose lines only move when large stakes are placed) Odds opened at 3.19 and have moved up to 3.41 but haven't moved an awful lot over the last couple of days. Betfair's odds haven't moved much either over the last 2 days, it seems that they're just overpriced with many sites like Ladbrokes opening up with odds of 2.5 but being swayed due to the opening odds of the Asian Bookies and people arbing on the higher prices placed on the smaller bookies. In all I see no reason for this to be fixed, so I'm going to tip this. (I've been gradually updating and writing as I've researched)

Asian Handicap 0: Clermont Foot = 2.25 188Bet
Asian Handicap +0.5: Clermont Foot = 1.57 Bet365

2 units on +0.5 Asian Handicap (effectively double chance on draw & Clermont)
1 unit on Asian Handicap 0 (the same as Draw No Bet, just with better odds) Clermont Foot

If this is a draw or a win for Clermont we'll be very happy. I'm not staking large on it as I'm still a tad tetchy on the pricing.

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Tomorrow, is the day of the Pokal in Germany, some of the final games to be played before the teams go on their winter break. With teams wanting to go and smack some lower tier teams ass before they go on a break with their families, or with their class a hookers.

Two games stick out like sore thumbs for me, and they include the two big boys in the Bundesliga in BVB Dortmund, and the huge Bayern. Both of these sides will win tomorrow, thats for sure, but I've yet to decide on what to place on in this market. Both sides will take these games seriously as they'll be in the quarter finals, should they overcome Dusseldorf and Bochum respectively.

Dusseldorf will be no easy task for Dortmund to overcome, while with injuries and suspensions for Bayern, Bochum shouldn't be taken as an easy fixture either.

Both of these games will be offering incredible values in certain markets, expect a nice bet on these before they begin. Bayern kick off at 6pm, while BVB are off at 7.30.

I'll be seeing you tomorrow. x

Hello again lads, so, here we are, I said I'd have advice for you on the Pokal, but, due to injuries, suspensions and the form of Dusseldorf I've decided against betting on both of these games, the cup can always be tricky and even though I expect both teams to be winning, there still is a large element of risk with Bayern's injuries and suspensions, and Goetze being injured and Kagawa's poor form for BVB. So I'll be leaving these two for today.


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As an update to the bets for today and tomorrow I'll include these two images showing implied probability and how they've changed since I've tipped, which is always good, as both have become more likely, with Cliftonville's best odds dropping to 1.62 and Clermont to win's best odds dropping to 2.88, interestingly enough Monaco are now as high as 2.9 to win on Bwin meaning we could cover now and guarantee profit on both options with 1.86% profit on the double chance bet, and 3.37% profit on the DNB. But we shant be doing that, here are the images:

Monaco v Clermont Foot



Donegal Celtic v Cliftonville



Expect Cliftonville's odds to continue to drop over the next 24 hours.

http://women.soccerway.com/matches/2011/12/20/israel/ligat-al-women/maccabi-tzur-shalem/as-tel-aviv-university/1227625/

This will be in play on BET365.

ASA TEL AVIV will win, and comfortably. They tend to score early in matches, the 1st half Asian bet on -3, -3.5 will be roughly 1.9.

2 units on. Very confident.

yesno1234

Deleted User wrote: »

http://women.soccerway.com/matches/2011/12/20/israel/ligat-al-women/maccabi-tzur-shalem/as-tel-aviv-university/1227625/

This will be in play on BET365.

ASA TEL AVIV will win, and comfortably. They tend to score early in matches, the 1st half Asian bet on -3, -3.5 will be roughly 1.9.

2 units on. Very confident.

FFS, suspended on Bet365 before I get a bet on, reappears at 2-0:mad:

Took -6.5 AH at 2-0, forgetting that AH is taken as if it's 0-0. Gonna trade out asap

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

http://women.soccerway.com/matches/2011/12/20/israel/ligat-al-women/maccabi-tzur-shalem/as-tel-aviv-university/1227625/

This will be in play on BET365.

ASA TEL AVIV will win, and comfortably. They tend to score early in matches, the 1st half Asian bet on -3, -3.5 will be roughly 1.9.

2 units on. Very confident.

4-0 after 30 minutes. Easy.

The first half ended 5-0 to Asa Tel Aviv, so there is my second win. 2/2

+1.8 units!

Current Bank: 43.55 units.

Still one to play tonight, Come on Clermont!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Cheers for giving us a shout on fb, would of missed it otherwise

Follow the thread, sort out Thunderbird, and whammy, you'll get instant email notifications of when I post Almost easier than FB.