Severe Storm January 2nd/3rd 2012 (Malin records gust to 169km/hr)

Storm 10

Met Eireann dont seem to be concerned with this storm just said stormy conditions on Monday night into Tuesday, no warning of damaging winds etc.

Deep Easterly

maquiladora wrote: »

Just missed it.

Not overly detailed regarding the storm potential; more just a sum up of the week ahead. Most interesting part was when Siobhan mentioned the '1 hour of sunshine in parts of the west last week'

maquiladora

Storm 10 wrote: »

Met Eireann dont seem to be concerned with this storm just said stormy conditions on Monday night into Tuesday, no warning of damaging winds etc.

Thats in line with the UK Met Office warning. They only mention a risk of disruption to travel but no mention of damaging gusts.

Wasn't expecting the wind that was here early this morning, came out of nowhere from 3am - 4am with gusts of up to 60km/h.

Deep Easterly

Chitthy Chitty Bang Bang on now. Should keep us entertained until the 12z's come out.

whataboutnow

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Not just for the poster who asked specifically, but a general comment:

Check back after 1600h for the latest estimates, but I think we are all rather concerned at this point about potential severity, and the track now being featured will not spare any regions, but even relatively small shifts in that track might adjust the impacts.

It needs to be stressed that this will happen mostly in the pre-dawn darkness on Tuesday although it will stay very windy across the northeast until mid-day or so.

To give some idea of how this might play out, these are some wind gust maximum forecasts that I would issue for current model consensus:

Belmullet, Mace Head, Valentia, Sherkin Is, Roche Pt ... 75-80 kts

Johnstown, Cork, Shannon, Casement, Dublin, Malin Head ... 55-65 kts

Mullingar, Oak Park, Claremorris, Ballyhaise ... 45-55 kts

Notice these are a bit stronger than previous storms even in windy locations (except for Malin Head which I am keeping lower because of track)

Galway Bay and the region from Galway to Athlone to Meath could be in line for exceptionally strong gusts on the track we're seeing at present.

Now as the poster who asked the question lives in Donegal, I might say that this storm could be severe more in the south than the north of Donegal but only if it keeps very close to a track across Malin Head; the strongest winds in storms of this type are usually 50-150 miles to the south of the track.

Anyway, there is time for this to change, it's important to realize that we are trying to match forecast maps with wind speeds, and this storm is 36h away with almost 3,000 kms of ocean to cross. But that in itself tells a story, the average forward speed given those numbers is 83 km/hr ... and a storm racing along at that speed while deepening is capable of generating some very intense gusts, I can't really rule out 90-100 kts being in play at some point, let's hope that doesn't materialize.

Bottom line is, take this storm very seriously until either it happens or we get reliable indications of a downgrade.

Thank for your in-depth response and to everyone else who answered my question earlier.much appreciated

maquiladora

Redsunset

I've blown this up an put an X where i think storm centre will go.

irish1967

These storms seem to be following a predictable course. I'll predict it swings north. Whacks into Scotland. NW (here) will have a normal stormy day. I'll guess max gusts of 48knts at Finner and maybe 50-52knts at Malin Head.

eskimocat

Nice one Redsunset, its like a spot the ball competition.. I can't make x' s etc but I think its going to be just slightly lower than where you have it.. This is a really interesting run. Thanks to all that post charts and explanations. Got a hand held anemometer for Christmas and it looks like i might just get to test it out! Pity about the driving rain thats due with it, and the pre dawn timing.

maquiladora

There are some similarites between what some of the models are showing and with the Burns Day storm (1990) that sadly killed many people including some here in Ireland.





Not forecast to deepen as much as the 1990 storm but the similarities are interesting.

ninebeanrows

irish1967 wrote: »

These storms seem to be following a predictable course. I'll predict it swings north. Whacks into Scotland. NW (here) will have a normal stormy day. I'll guess max gusts of 48knts at Finner and maybe 50-52knts at Malin Head.

See i think there is a difference here. The large depression situated over Iceland will force this system further south than it's path would otherwise expected to go.

I think the slightly care free attitude by Met Eireann is a bit concerning (Yes they've mentioned stormy so have covered themselves) but, this has the potential to be the most widespread storm to hit the island in a few years. Consider wherever the centre goes a swathe of severe gales will affect all of the country in association with the frontal passage.

So we are talking about widespread inland gusts of 50-60KTs even if the track deviates north.

At this point i expect we will see widespread gusts to 60KT with gusts from 70-75KT along some exposed southern areas like Roches Point. Then we have the wrap around which could move inland or just affect the north coast, but i anticipate this will be a small section of severe wind as the low will be rapidly developing and this type of scenario can see a sting jet develop during the rapid intensification, within this red zone gusts to 80KT (PROB 30 type thing) could be reached.

jirafa

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/forecast/Cork_Eire

Redsunset

Water vapour image of current position

jirafa

Met Office Analysis and Synoptic Weather Forecast Charts

http://www.metbrief.com/EGRRanim.html

maquiladora

12Z GME about 5mb deeper than its previous run.

jirafa

One can use the following link to view the latest models runs from Meteociel

Link ............. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

maquiladora

12Z NAE is virtually identical to its last run. No point posting it.

GFS rolling out now.

ninebeanrows

GFS slightly further south and few mb less deep again on this run.

jirafa

http://www.meteox.co.uk/forecastloop.aspx?type=2&continent=europa#

Sponge Bob

12z shows less intensity from now up to 12 midnight tomorrow and moves the system south again.

JanuarySnowstor

Looks more and more likely now that the South will bear the brunt this time.
Interesting storm but by no means spectacular!

maquiladora

Yeah 12Z is a bit further south and as a result a bit weaker.

Its drops 8mb in 3 hours as it crosses NI.

Max gusts of about 75mph on south/southwest coasts and about 50-60mph everywhere else if this run came off.

ninebeanrows

My Take from the 12z GFS

Roches Point 45KT gusting 75KT(85MPH)

Dublin Airport 35KT gusting 65KT(75MPH)

jirafa

Link .... http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=euro&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=slpw&HH=39&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

dsmythy

Looks like Scandinavia on the receiving end of it at it's peak. They've had a fair few thrown at them this season.

jirafa

:):cool::cool::D:D;);)

Harps

Doesn't look particularly severe on the 12z GFS, certainly no worse than the December 13th storm. Still on a knife edge though and a slight tweak in track and intensity could bring a very different result

Tuesday



Dec 13

mickger844posts

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Looks more and more likely now that the South will bear the brunt this time.
Interesting storm but by no means spectacular!

Not one decent storm in 2011 so we will take what we can get at this stage.

maquiladora

12Z UKMO is further north and a little more intense than GFS.



12Z HIRLAM looks a bit further south but not much change?

maquiladora

Just coming into view at the end of the hi-res NMM 12Z run.

Storm is 10mb deeper than the GFS at 36 hours (as far as it goes).

Gusts up to almost 80mph on the southwest coast. 70-75mph gusts inland in the south. 60-70mph gusts pretty much everywhere else.

We'll get a proper view of it on this model on the 18Z.

Deep Easterly

Some really serious winds for the North Sea for Tuesday as well, and as much as I love storms, I really wouldn't like to be on an oil rig during this one.

M.T. Cranium

Would take the more intense depictions, the initialization seems a bit off as the storm is currently below 984 mbs from 987 mb reading at Banquereau where the wind is 32 kts gusting 42 (and passed three hours ago by the windshift). Satellite imagery shows a tightly wound spiral at about 46N 54W for an 18z position.

Perhaps ECM will have a better grasp. The MTC model places the low near Belmullet at 03z at 968 mbs deepening to 948 near Dundee by 09z. Would suggest that Weathercheck's wind predictions likely to verify but would add possible 70-75 kt gusts in exposed areas of central Ireland due to rapid pressure drop on approach.

maquiladora

Can't really tell much from the 12Z ECM on Meteociel based on the 24 and 48 hour frames because it moves so quickly. I guess it looks similar to the GFS but a tad further north?

WeatherUnderground map will show it better.

Edit : 964mb off the northwest coast at 39 hours. Further north and more intense than the GFS.



Reaches 954mb over Scotland.

Min

Met Eireann going for violent storm force 11 winds along NW coasts.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

Met Eireann going for violent storm force 11 winds along NW coasts.

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

All depends on the track, if it ends up being closer to the GFS then the west/southwest/south would be getting strong winds, if not then the northwest would get the worst of it, but they are used it up there. :P

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

All depends on the track, if it ends up being closer to the GFS then the west/southwest/south would be getting strong winds, if not then the northwest would get the worst of it, but they are used it up there. :P

Yes they are, they have everything that will blow down, blown down already.

It does seem ME are getting a bit more concerned about the storm.

Sponge Bob

Todays IR Images from HERE, composite of 06 12 and 18z

DOCARCH

maquiladora wrote: »

Yep. Siobhan said gale force winds over land and reaching 11 on northwest coasts.

She did not go into much detail and did not show chart for tomorrow night. Keeping her cards...close......to............her.....................chest. Ahhhhhh. :P

Redsunset

I actually thought they were still making no biggy of it. Feel myself too that it will be no great shakes either, away from north west.

Su Campu

ASCAT winds at 1323 and 1502 today.






Ship WKPY reported 45 knot winds on the southern side of the low at 18 Z.

ninebeanrows

Su Campu wrote: »

ASCAT winds at 1323 and 1502 today.



Ship WKPY reported 45 knot winds on the southern side of the low at 18 Z.

Yes, surprisingly strong. Models show it weakening slightly or staying at this intensity over the next 12-18 hours.

maquiladora

In case anyone missed it, MT has updated the daily forecast thread with his latest thoughts on this.

Redsunset

12z ECM

maquiladora

18Z GFS should be interesting. I think we'll see it shift the track further north a bit more in line with the other models, but ya never really know.
Looking forward to see how the hi-res model handles it too.

Still no warning from Met Eireann yet. I'd say that will go up later tonight or early tomorrow morning.

North Atlantic WV loop : http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Deep Easterly

Just to compare the ECMWF 12z run with the ECMWF 00z run for 0600utc Tuesday:



Very little change in the actual track and intensity of its storm low projection, only real significant difference I can see it that the low is not quite as low on the 12z run (about 5.0mb higher)

maquiladora

NWS have shifted the track slightly south since the chart at 14:52.

Min

Siobhan gave a more generalised storm for Monday night and early Tuesday.

maquiladora

Min wrote: »

Siobhan gave a more generalised storm for Monday night and early Tuesday.

Forgot to watch it. What was different from the last one?

Min

maquiladora wrote: »

Forgot to watch it. What was different from the last one?

Yeah.

The violent storm force 11 for the NW had disappeared.

She had a synoptic chart with wet and windy over the storm system, no details on how powerful the storm would be.

But it will have squally showers in it's wake.

Nothing spectacular in other words, not high on detail.