New Years Day/Monday Snow Discussion

BEASTERLY

darkman2 wrote: »

That's a rediculous thing to say. I intentionally keep things as simple as possible so it is accessible to everyone who reads the forum. I won't apologise for that. And I will mention many other variables if prompted to do so. There is no need at all, and I have seen it on other forums, to bombard people with numbers and charts some of them will find bewildering. That does annoy people. I recognise that. But if you want an in depth model discussion I am glad to facilitate it.

Well only the other day you said a -5c @ 850 hpa was the same in terms of snow risk no matter what the air masses source, Atlantic or continental, so from that i just presumed you didnt know about surface layer modification or dew points etc. Sorry if i was wrong.

BEASTERLY

veryhappy1

no snow please

Sponge Bob

darkman2 wrote: »

Is there any chance at all that this thread can be kept on topic? It is only suppose to be for Monday/Tuesday snow risk/potential.

It was a whole "much colder""next week" last time you started it

darkman2

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Well only the other day you said a -5c @ 850 hpa was the same in terms of snow risk no matter what

That's not what I said. I said -5c 850hpa is the same whether it is polar maritime or from Siberia. That's how I put it. Nothing to do with snow risk. If people want to discuss wet bulb, dew points, temperatures through the atmosphere, SST's, the Jet Stream, theta values, strat temperatures, wind, humidity, pressure, heights whatever, no problem. It is not needed in an OP. Generally all these things do get discussed during these threads anyway. This thread and others are being derailed by trolling.

BEASTERLY

darkman2 wrote: »

That's not what I said. I said -5c 850hpa is the same whether it is polar maritime or from Siberia. That's how I put it. Nothing to do with snow risk. If people want to discuss wet bulb, dew points, temperatures through the atmosphere, SST's, the Jet Stream, theta values, strat temperatures, wind, humidity, pressure, heights whatever, no problem. It is not needed in an OP. Generally all these things do get discussed during these threads anyway. This thread and others are being derailed by trolling.

Yes but it was pretty clear what you meant in the context. It was in response to somebody saying -5 was not enough in a maritime flow.

They are needed when making a forecast though. In your OP, you made a forecast, purely based on -5c 850hpa temps. Prove me wrong by showing how many other variables are favoring snowfall.

Elmo5

Can I just point out that not everyone lives at sea level. There are a lot of readers of this forum and if there is a chance of snow at higher level and disruption at higher levels to road conditions, then I do think that it's worth pointing out that it may snow for their benefit.

I do not live at sea level myself but I do have family that live in the wicklow mountains and they would be glad of such knowledge.

darkman2

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Yes but it was pretty clear what you meant in the context. It was in response to somebody saying -5 was not enough in a maritime flow.

They are needed when making a forecast though. In your OP, you made a forecast, purely based on -5c 850hpa temps. Prove me wrong by showing how many other variables are favoring snowfall.

That would be a waste of time atm as the 00z runs will be coming out shortly. In any case I am not inclined to respond to a post as ignorant as that. There is an ignore button there that you can use. I look at every variable available to us when I make a forecast. Just because I have not referenced them in the OP does not mean I have not used them.

The conduct and trolling of certain posters in here is not good for this forum.

Sponge Bob

Nothing points to "much colder" and "next week" like your last thread did.

It simply says average., a cold day in amongst generally warmer others is nothing. It will be averaged out.

darkman2

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Nothing points to "much colder" and "next week" like your last thread did.

It simply says average., a cold day in amongst generally warmer others is nothing. It will be averaged out.

Far from me to respond to a troll but take my advice and use your head. How would you characterise this week just gone and the week preceding it? This coming week will be much colder and there will be snow at times next week.

I really have little interest in communicating with a poster that consistently trolls this forum. As I said to the other poster there is an ignore button. Feel free to use it. Or better yet stop posting rubbish trying to wind others up and opening stupid threads about heatwaves or whatever nonsense it is. Because when you criticise someone in here it says more about you then it does about them. I don't know what your issue is.

There are forums more wreckable then this one - I would suggest some should journey over to them or preferably the moderators should start taking action here.

pistolpetes11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

SCROLL ALL THE WAY DOWN!

Your condensing tone and constant name calling are becoming very tiresum , everyone is entitled to an opinion but you try to force yours down people's throats.

Trying to discredit a poster for his score in a forecasting competition when you can clearly see he has not entered most months was a new low.

Ease up and let people enjoy what they like, your smugness smacks of a 15 year child whilst I know you are not as from following some of of your other postings in other forums I know you are quite intelligent and well respected, I just can't get my head around the point scoring / name calling and negative attitude to anyone who likes a bit of winter weather in the winter.

Iancar29

Even though im here in Dublin and probably wont see any snow id like to Thank you DM2. Just for the info and your general opinion. I know many who will end up sending me a photo from places were it will be high enough to snow.

Off to work now ..... urrgh...

eyesquirm

Iancar29 wrote: »

Even though im here in Dublin and probably wont see any snow id like to Thank you DM2.

Sponge bob, that's you again, isn't it?

TheFairy

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Your condensing tone and constant name calling are becoming very tiresum , everyone is entitled to an opinion but you try to force yours down people's throats.

Trying to discredit a poster for his score in a forecasting competition when you can clearly see he has not entered most months was a new low.

Ease up and let people enjoy what they like, your smugness smacks of a 15 year child whilst I know you are not as from following some of of your other postings in other forums I know you are quite intelligent and well respected, I just can't get my head around the point scoring / name calling and negative attitude to anyone who likes a bit of winter weather in the winter.

There's a few people at it PP! IMO it needs to stop, but it would seem the regular posters on the forum has split into two different camps with one taking a high and mighty stance!

ch750536

It's plausible that it will fall as snow on the higher levels during this event. I'll take pics for all the 'lowies' of me making a snowman. Thanks for the analysis all, healthy stuff from Darkman & Su.

Su Campu

I see MT has this morning gone for a similar forecast to mine.

Monday will be very cold and windy, with a rapid moderating trend late in the day. Mixed wintry showers with accumulations of 3-5 cms of snow on hills (snow line at times near 150m then rising) ... winds WSW 30-50 mph ... morning lows -2 to +2 C and afternoon readings near 4-6 C before rising towards midnight to about 10 C.

A brave move, considering the reception I got!

Darkman, sorry, I've only just now spotted that you replied to the factors I mentioned last night. The way it was quoted it wasn't clear you had done so.

From my experience the 528 dam line is only a first indicator of when to even bother to watch out for snow, and we never get sea-level a snowline unless it's at 522 or lower. There is a difference with continental vs maritime flow, with continental flow giving a higher chance of snow for the same thickness.

Likewise with the 850-1000 thickness, which is a much more important one to look at than the 500-1000. Experience tells me that if it's not below 1285 m then sea-level snow is unlikely. Other factors have to be taken into account too though, including humidity, etc. as these have a bearing on the thickness value. It is not correct to say that -5 °C T850 and 528 dam are the always the same no matter what when it comes to forecasting snow. The boundary layer is where the snow must survive, and the T850 tells us little about what happens to it on a long track over sea.

This ex-UKMO forecaster thinks along similar lines, though in fact says that the guidelines posted are even a little too optimistic.

http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/152
http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/194

As does this Belgian guy (scroll down to the bottom)

http://www.skystef.be/forecast5.html
http://www.skystef.be/forecast21.html

I still stick (get it?) with a mostly sleety rain mix for most, with proper snow briefly above 150 m in the northwest early Monday.

aurora 527

In my humble opinion, i log on here every day to read MT's forecast and various threads. However things seem to have gone downhill recently, there does seem to be a certain amount of condenscending behaviour going on. I admire anyone who starts a thread and gives their opinion on the forecasts.
Yes i love snow, its rare, especially in the South East. (Don't like snow bunnies reference to people who do like it:rolleyes:)
The whole point is it gets people chatting and discussing and surely being the weather boards, thats the most important thing.

Wild Bill

Noon Monday


6pm Monday


What we are missing here is the 3pm chart which, I confidently forecast, sees the band of snow whipping across the northern end of the Wicklow Mountains bringing snow cover to Dublin to sea level from 10 km inland and above 70m asl near the east coast.

You can bet the house on this - I've studied Su Campo's reading material and have now pretty much nailed the forecasting thingy.

Move over MT

Wild Bill

btw my assistant in Belgium sees a (small) pile of snow falling - starting before 6pm tomorrow in Sligo/Donegal becoming widespread through the night along the entire west coast (from 5km - 10 km inland).

East Galway is especially vulnerable (as is Donegal, of course )

Watch out for pedestrians stumbling about in the blizzard; they generally look like zombies in balaclavas or hoodies.........

(See the full sequence http://www.skystef.be/forecast7.html)

snow ghost

Su Campu wrote: »

I have to hand it to you - you're persistent!

I certainly can't see any disruption from snow at any time in the near future, regardless of where the low tracks, so I'd love to know how you came to that conclusion. Brief snow on high ground, sleety mix at best at sea level. I think you're way too optimistic and ott, but that's just my opinion.

Su are you aware how many times over the past two winters you posted on here that there would only be snow only on higher ground - or even had only been snow on higher ground - whilst I was sitting here in the West vitually at sea level with the ground around me covered in snow?

cherryghost

Hey all, back from my Christmas break, hope ye all had a good one and are looking forward to what the New Year will bring us

Just been trawling through the charts this morning and I don't see anything concrete regarding the snow risk for next week. The DP is extremely minimal everywhere, while coastal regions and inwards of up to 30-50km have temperatures varying from 3-7. Inland sees lower temperatures but its still not enough to muster any snowfall at lower levels.

My current prediction is one similar to the last snow risk, which was snowfall at 100m+. Things can still change though

darkman2

Should clarify blizzards and significant snowfall is not what is being forecast in this thread. All this thread is for is a risk of snow on Sunday night, Monday and maybe Tuesday depending on the track of that storm. High ground is always more likely to see snow. That goes without saying. This is why it's problematic when a poster is labelled in such a manner. Posters seem to think whenever I open a thread now snowmageddon is being forecast. That is not the premise of this thread (nor the last one).

When I say it might snow in some areas I don't mean it's going to settle either. I don't know why people automatically assume these things but it's happening more and more really. It's the same when Weathercheck opens a storm thread - you would think a hurricane is being forecast the way certain posters would respond. And then the criticisms start flying from the usual quarters.

Su Campu is absolutely correct to point out the marginality for some areas particularly at sea level where we might well be outside the parameters for snow to fall. This is not a competition and opinions like this should be used to make the forecast better and more solid as the thread goes on. So it's great to see interaction like that.

What is not great is some of the other stuff from others who have no interest in this and are just trolling.

As for the forecast itself it does look slightly more marginal to me on both days then it did yesterday across the models. Dewpoints and temperatures are slightly higher for the two days aswell. The track of Tuesdays storm is awkward in seeing the depth of cold air it could drag down. The track is not certain yet.

There is a risk of snow. But whilst snow could fall at lower or low levels disruptive snow is unlikely right now below a couple of hundred metres.

Sponge Bob

There is "a risk" of 13c peaks and record 31 dec average minima temperatures today. Do you see anyone starting threads about that ???

However it would be tedious to start 2 threads about a "risk" of something that will not affect most people in any way EVEN if it does happen ......just like the lack of rainfall in Timbucktoo of a wednesday night does not warrant 2 threads around here either.

sparrowcar

It "appears" to me that there is a power struggle in this forum which is taking away from the spirit and fun of the forum. I might even suggest that it is not being correctly moderated by the mods themselves or maybe a bit too loosely?

Either way I have grown tired of the bickering and I have decided to ban myself from this forum until things calm down and all involved grow up!

Happy New Year all.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

There is "a risk" of 13c peaks and record 31 dec average minima temperatures today. Do you see anyone starting threads about that ???

However it would be tedious to start 2 threads about a "risk" of something that will not affect most people in any way EVEN if it does happen ......just like the lack of rainfall in Timbucktoo of a wednesday night does not warrant 2 threads around here either.

Lowest temp in Sandyford since midnight so far is 11.2C and highest 13.5C; current is 13.1C - any records there?

Sponge Bob

Temps are measured 9am - 9am Bill...by convention. 'Todays' figure will not be known till 9am tomorrow.

Keep an eye on Mothmans personal station stats. too.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

There is "a risk" of 13c peaks and record 31 dec average minima temperatures today. Do you see anyone starting threads about that ???

However it would be tedious to start 2 threads about a "risk" of something that will not affect most people in any way EVEN if it does happen ......just like the lack of rainfall in Timbucktoo of a wednesday night does not warrant 2 threads around here either.

On a serious point can I say it is astonishing that Sponge got a warning for this post - he is actually making a very reasonable point about notability.

A "risk" of snow falling over some high ground hardly affects as many people as a warm day!

In fact Su, you yourself made a similar post (re snow "ramping") only last night.

Don't be swayed by the crowd - and I note that several posters constantly refer to Sponge as a "troll" - surely that should merit some sanction?

Strikes me that some of the folk desperate for snow have had a serious humour bypass; it is perfectly possible to just ignore posts that annoy you or you don't get the humour.

pistolpetes11

Wild Bill wrote: »

On a serious point can I say it is astonishing that Sponge got a warning for this post - he is actually making a very reasonable point about notability.

A "risk" of snow falling over some high ground hardly affects as many people as a warm day!

In fact Su, you yourself made a similar post (re snow "ramping") only last night.

Don't be swayed by the crowd - and I note that several posters constantly refer to Sponge as a "troll" - surely that should merit some sanction?

Strikes me that some of the folk desperate for snow have had a serious humour bypass; it is perfectly possible to just ignore posts that annoy you or you don't get the humour.

Its like a yellow card in football match , the foul you just got booked for may not have been worthy of a card but your card is a culmination of constant niggling.

darkman2

As you were with the GFS and UKMO 12z's. Nothing new for Monday. Snow risk is still the same - mostly higher ground but to low levels at times particularly through the early hours of Monday morning. Western/Northern parts most at risk of heavy showers. Drier further East but some showers should make it through on a brisk wind. Tuesday is still up in the air (pardon the pun) until the track of the storm is nailed down.

ninebeanrows

zip