Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

WolfeIRE

An animation (click on attachment) i put together of the 850hpa's (circa 1300-1500m) temps from 19-27 Jan, based on 06z GEFS run. This is FI territory so confidence is relatively low in it transpiring as shown.

This is being hinted at by the GFS and ECM for the past two days in particular but there is a long way to go between now and then.

The purpose of this post is to underline the potential showing up on the models only, and should not be considered as a foregone conclusion. Things can and often do go pearshaped. Presently, it's trending cold and it is all about the trend when looking at models over a period of time. Specifics don't kick in until closer to the date in question.

This chart shows the Beast from the East hitting Ireland and the UK producing daytime temps close to freezing and subzero nighttime temps, along with plenty of scattered wintry showers for the eastern half of the country in particular. Low pressure systems pass to the southwest and south of the country producing classic frontal battle grounds that can produce snow i.e. cold air from the east meets front approaching from the Atlantic.

To Alcohol

I saw a crow flying over the old Tesco in Naas carrying a bag of Capri Grill chips yesterday. Thats one tough crow cause those bags are heavy. Reckon he's fattening himself up for some serious cold on the way. Fingers crossed.

weatherfiend

To Alcohol wrote: »

I saw a crow flying over the old Tesco in Naas carrying a bag of Capri Grill chips yesterday. Thats one tough crow cause those bags are heavy. Reckon he's fattening himself up for some serious cold on the way. Fingers crossed.

for a moment I thought you saw him on Wolfe's chart!!!:rolleyes:

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

An animation (click on attachment) i put together of the 850hpa's (circa 1300-1500m) temps from 19-27 Jan, based on 06z GEFS run. This is FI territory so confidence is relatively low in it transpiring as shown.

This is being hinted at by the GFS and ECM for the past two days in particular but there is a long way to go between now and then.

The purpose of this post is to underline the potential showing up on the models only, and should not be considered as a foregone conclusion. Things can and often do go pearshaped. Presently, it's trending cold and it is all about the trend when looking at models over a period of time. Specifics don't kick in until closer to the date in question.

This chart shows the Beast from the East hitting Ireland and the UK producing daytime temps close to freezing and subzero nighttime temps, along with plenty of scattered wintry showers for the eastern half of the country in particular. Low pressure systems pass to the southwest and south of the country producing classic frontal battle grounds that can produce snow i.e. cold air from the east meets front approaching from the Atlantic.

And im supposed to be in london from the 24-26th!!?...

* goes gets some travel insurance* :rolleyes:

WolfeIRE

12z GFS will be interesting in terms of the aforementioned 19-27 period. If it maintains the setup then you will see MT's 50-50 regarding zonal-much colder weather edge slightly in favour of cold, I would imagine. But then again I am only imagining :rolleyes: MT is his own man

WolfeIRE

Simon Keeling referring to 'possible' split of jet stream and cold end of January into Feb. Makes the point of variances in models beyond 21st signifying significant changes on the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2m5MZm_V2Sk

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UK Outlook for Monday 16 Jan 2012 to Wednesday 25 Jan 2012:

The UKMO foresees only a slight cooling next week.

"It is likely to be a fine, settled but cold start to the period, with overnight and early morning frost as well as some stubborn freezing fog patches. A slow transition to milder, cloudier and more unsettled conditions from the west is then expected as spells of rain, preceded by some transient sleet or snow, spread east, although it is likely to take until mid-week to get to the far southeast. Conditions then likely to turn a little colder again late next week. Into the following weekend and the second week unsettled conditions are likely to persist, with spells of cloudy and relatively mild weather with periods of rain, interspersed by brighter but colder and showery spells with frosty nights, some of these showers wintry."

And possibly a colder end to Jan

UK Outlook for Thursday 26 Jan 2012 to Thursday 9 Feb 2012:

Temperatures are expected initially to be around normal for the time of year, although there is a risk of colder conditions setting in as we head into February.

The UKMO can be tentative when referring to colder weather beyond a week or two so they obviously see the potential. They are correct not to commit either way as it all just remains a possibility at this stage.

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DIFFERENT PERTURBATIONS OF GFS (SAT WEEK - 21 JAN), underlining this 50-50 situation of going either way




And for

LuckyLloyd

To be perfectly honest, I'd settle for a bit of frost and a reason to wear a wolly hat at this stage. Horrible weather for this time of year imo.

yorlum11

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

To be perfectly honest, I'd settle for a bit of frost and a reason to wear a wolly hat at this stage. Horrible weather for this time of year imo.

Frost!!!!Whats that?? its been a while.

Harps

12z is vastly different again, still no resolution for what happens after the weekend

TheMilkyPirate

12z not great at all, But a consolation prize with the very last frame of FI having us in what is just about to become a full blown easterly :pac:

WolfeIRE

12Z GEFS gives us a considerably different output to 06z. This one is zonal from next week with cold from the east pushed out to end of the month. Damn rollercoaster is making me sick !

Musicman2000

WolfeIRE wrote: »

12Z GEFS gives us a considerably different output to 06z. This one is zonal from next week with cold from the east pushed out to end of the month. Damn rollercoaster is making me sick !

Have to say of all my time model watching must be 6 years now, I’ve never saw so much chopping and changing on each run, For those of us that like cold, It has to be the worst rollercoaster ride in a long time, BUT I will be very surprised if we don’t get a decent cold and snowy spell towards the end of the month into February. Anyway the ECM is out in the next hour or so, let’s hope that sticks to this morning’s run, and doesn’t back the 12z Gfs and the UKMO run.

skirtgirl

Hi, I have been following this thread closely and I would just like to say that my birthday is at the beginning of February and every year without fail there is either snow or frost on it. Every year.......;)

compsys

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

To be perfectly honest, I'd settle for a bit of frost and a reason to wear a wolly hat at this stage. Horrible weather for this time of year imo.

Totally agree with you on that one.

I haven't had a chance to wear hardly any of my winter stuff so far this year. Always feel like I'm sweating in work too as the heat is always on full blast just because it's January. Would love a long, cold, dry and settled spell.

To be honest, after the dire summer we had I thought we were guaranteed a half-decent winter i.e. settled and sunny weather, albeit cold. I can't believe how long the Atlantic seems to have been dominating our weather.

It seems like an eternity since the last deep area of high pressure settled over the country and settled things down for any reasonable amount of time.

Darwin

John Eagleton gave the forecast before the 6 news on Radio 1 - I'm afraid he mentioned a return to mild wet weather for the weekend after next. But we live in hope though...

Musicman2000

Darwin wrote: »

John Eagleton gave the forecast before the 6 news on Radio 1 - I'm afraid he mentioned a return to mild wet weather for the weekend after next. But we live in hope though...

Looks like he could be right looking the latest Ecm 12run:rolleyes: Very cold into Europe

Lucreto

Darwin wrote: »

John Eagleton gave the forecast before the 6 news on Radio 1 - I'm afraid he mentioned a return to mild wet weather for the weekend after next. But we live in hope though...

It is too far out to make that forecast. A long of things change in 10 days.

Darwin

Lucreto wrote: »

It is too far out to make that forecast. A long of things change in 10 days.

I agree forecast accuracy drops off significantly after 4 to 5 days, but metoffice UK is thinking is along the same lines as met eireann (maybe they use the same models?) with regard to a return to milder weather next week after the upcoming cold spell.

Lucreto

Darwin wrote: »

I agree forecast accuracy drops off significantly after 4 to 5 days, but metoffice UK is thinking is along the same lines as met eireann (maybe they use the same models?) with regard to a return to milder weather next week after the upcoming cold spell.

I wouldn't believe in any models as they don't show the effects of the Stratospheric Warming.

pauldry

yes a return to mild weather the week after but only a brief one as EVEN colder weather looks set to push in for the very end of January though maybe for only a couple of days or HOURS!:p

WolfeIRE

ECM looks promising for Sat week, same day signalled by this morn's GFS run

BEASTERLY

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ECM looks promising for Sat week, same day signalled by this morn's GFS run

Extreme FI....

WolfeIRE

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Extreme FI....

D'ya thunk :rolleyes:

Sponge Bob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

D'ya thunk :rolleyes:

Wolfie, hate to tell ya and much too early to start a thread but January is heading for records all right. Warmth. Watch this space later this month

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Wolfie, hate to tell ya and much too early to start a thread but January is heading for records all right. Warmth. Watch this space later this month

Crow wisdom?

BEASTERLY

WolfeIRE wrote: »

D'ya thunk :rolleyes:

Which is why I wouldn't consider it ''promising''. We could dream though... sigh.

Iancar29

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ECM looks promising for Sat week, same day signalled by this morn's GFS run

How do ya put the images in small first like that? , that would be handy !

Deep Easterly

ECMWF 12z Ensemble mean has trough attempting to dig into central Europe at 240hrs, which is pretty inline with this evening's operational run:



Too much of a hop from the 00z run though to be taken seriously. If we see this same pattern cropping up on the ens over the next 4 or 5 runs then maybe something is being picked up.

As a side note, the pattern above is not unlike that which occurred in the last days of January 1986 just ahead of one of the coldest and most easterly Februarys on record.

Wild Bill

Deep Easterly wrote: »

January 1986 just ahead of one of the coldest and most easterly Februarys on record.

Remember it well. Features:

- Extremely sunny
- constant easterly wind
- temps near or below zero for weeks
- very dry, no snow
- no very low temperatures (a typical day was cloudless, sunny, max 0C, min -1C)
- ground frozen solid for weeks!

Icanseethewind

Hello all. Was out for a walk today and went along the shore. There is a dead seal on the rocks and has been there for near a week at this stage. The body has not been touched by foxes or indeed crows, gulls etc. I think this is because there is no hunger on the animals or birds. Plenty to eat out there due ot the mildness and the soft ground. Also was talking to a fisherman who knows alot of the signs and he told me Winter is as good as gone... and that the rest of the month will be mild and much the same. No snow... and he claims that the Spring will be very mild. I not saying he correct or that I fully believe him but from looking at charts and comments on here I believe this expected colder blast will not materilise.