Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Iancar29

18z pretty much the same as the 12z IMO .. except the polar vortex had push further west a bit. Im gonna try my BEST 2moro to leave this thread alone till the 18z timeframe again....


some of the lads over on NW right now....






I SWEAR i wasnt like that too.... :pac: :rolleyes:

Harps

Don't see what the big deal is really, despite all the hype this week there was only one GFS operational chart that ended up with a real cold spell for us and that was 2 weeks into the future. The constant talk of building blocks and positive signs at +192h are going to drive people crazy :pac:

Anyway, finally a bit of agreement now on what's happening, unfortunately it looks like continued mild non-eventful weather for the coming week. A few settled days which might finally produce an air frost or two followed by a reasonably mild south easterly. After that the jet stream is back in charge with a return of Atlantic muck from the south west

Still a lot of uncertainty up north so there could be further changes but in the short term it doesn't look like anything worth talking about

doccy

I'm still pretty optimistic for cold weather. It's still coming, it's just the charts are pushing it back a few days at a time. A trend is starting to appear and we just need a little patience.

It's like the kid with his finger in the dyke, all that cold built up is just waiting for a chance to break out. The weather is strange this year, how quickly have we forgot the crappy summer followed by a bizarre and unseasonably hot autumn. Maybe, just maybe something epic epic is brewing out in the far reaches of FI.

Wild Bill

doccy wrote: »

Maybe, just maybe something epic epic is brewing out in the far reaches of FI.

Or just maybe not

Go to yer local bookie ..... bet on a blizzard 20th January.

(Warning: I take no responsibility for any losses occasioned by following this advice)

davidsr20

It's gas how quiet it's gone lol on this tread! But however that stupid fantasy lets pretend it's going to snow tread is still going

Sponge Bob

The Fantasy Snow Bunny thread performs a useful social function.

delw

davidsr20 wrote: »

It's gas how quiet it's gone lol on this tread! But however that stupid fantasy lets pretend it's going to snow tread is still going

it's nearly as quiet as the summer time when nothing happens then either

Fourteen

I've given up on the idea of snow this winter.

so disappointing.

davidsr20

Fourteen wrote: »

I've given up on the idea of snow this winter.

so disappointing.

Me too but I'm still wondering what mt is thinking at this stage

tzfrantic

were is darkman with the full of hope for snow

mickger844posts

What we are looking for is trends. GFS and ECM 0z showing similar 10 days out.

Flying Fish

mickger844posts wrote: »

What we are looking for is trends. GFS and ECM 0z showing similar 10 days out.

I like this trend :-)

ednwireland

mickger844posts wrote: »

What we are looking for is trends. GFS and ECM 0z showing similar 10 days out.

trend or FI ?

bring on the mildness! its been nice this week

pistolpetes11

Have to say , its seems the models are setting into a trend and at this stage a blast of decent cold does not look like it going to happen

Everything decent is in FI and even now FI is not as good as it was a few days ago.

I think Il cut the grass this weekend :mad:

doccy

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

I think Il cut the grass this weekend :mad:

Make sure you wear a nice warm coat, it's gonna be cold

WolfeIRE

The GEFS is indicating a return to milder weather next Tuesday before a gradual cooling again later next week. It has now indicated such a setup for the past 3 runs. The ECM, on the other hand only has a 2-day milder interlude next week before things cool down considerably by Friday week. The ECM has been consistent during the past 48 hrs in showing wintry weather extending from the N or NE across Ireland and Britain around 20/21. Therefore, it will be interesting to see whether one will follow the other model's lead or whether a middle ground will be found, which in reality would be average temps. The UKMO at present is following the ECMWF out to 140hrs while the GEM is more in line with the GFS.


NAO/AO/MEAN TEMPS

Temps dip gradually from the 18/19th onwards



AO negative from 20th




NAO trending lower but likely to remain positive around same perioD



SIMON KEELING, WEATHERONLINE.CO.UK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6ZeOTxgrFQ

darkman2

Hi all,

Pretty good ECM this morning from around 168hrs. We see a Northwesterly wind developing bringing a drop in temperatures after a brief spell of milder weather on Tuesday and Wednesday. The key word is "brief". The good news is the ECM is picking up a rise in pressure over Greenland and retrogression of the Azores high and I think we really need to watch this because the ECM, IMO, is the most consistent model of all that we have available to us and is the best at picking up significant trend changes in our region in particular. Even though the run outcome may change slightly from run to run it is still signalling that it will be turning significantly colder and i'd bet Wednesday is a good marker for the start of a big change to colder conditions. Also the AO remains negative on the ECM and the NAO goes highly negative as early as 192hrs.

GFS going for high pressure to be centered over us. I think I will give that one a skip as it seems the least likely outcome atm. In any case, as usual, the GFS model is up and down like a yoyo. Very poor consistency around the 144hr mark onward.

UKMO is going with the Southwesterly unsettled theme at 144hrs but keeps high pressure to the Northeast and, of course, we only see it to 144hrs so whilst it's similar to the ECM we obviously don't see how it compares thereafter. The UKMO montly outlook on www.metoffice.gov.uk is the best place to go to get some hint of what they expect for the medium term.


So, taking all the other models into account there is good and bad in all for coldies, but I think the ECM is the best to follow overall and i'd be putting money on a big change, IMO, as soon as next Wednesday. MT's dates are looking fairly solid atm.

WolfeIRE

The OP in this thread explains what a trend is all about even if it takes looking at extreme F1 charts to identify one i.e. the cold now showing up for later next week didn't appear overnight (don't forget MT has been on about it since November as well!). FI is where you look for trends and despite the poor performance of the GFS in the last 48 hours, it had up until then been indicating a cold spell (from a N/NNE source) kicking in from 16-18th of Jan.

Like DM says, I too believe the GEFS has performed poorly due to all the mixed signals post 140hrs or so while the ECM has continued to signal cold (most likely from an Arctic rather than continental source initially) from 18-19th.

Model watching has been painful at best since the weekend but the last few days have been very tiresome. There is little agreement among models beyond 4-days but I think the UKMO matching the opening 144hrs of the ECM and a consistent post 144hr ECM is evidence of a clear trend emerging i.e. a significant cooling down for the last 7-10days of Jan. The reason for dismissing the GEFS at this stage is because the models' 'yo-yo' outputs of recent days.

dsmythy

Seems more like an attack from the north rather than an attack from the east?

WolfeIRE

dsmythy wrote: »

Seems more like an attack from the north rather than an attack from the east?

At this stage yes, Smythy. A plunge of cold air south or ssw over Ireland seems more likely. A big question remains over the longevity of any cold spell as lots needs to happen between now and then in terms of blocking. Our experience so far this winter would suggest that the jetstream is not going to give up without a fight, and therefore the money would be on the jetstream ensuring any cold surges are shortlived. Still, everything is starting to become much clearer now so hopefully the models will have answers over the next 24-48hrs.

WolfeIRE

The 12z GFS is quite similar to the 6z run, with the only difference being well into FI around 22-23 where like the ECM on 19-20 it shows up a northerly plunge.

By 144hrs, GFS remains very different to the 12z UKMO. The latter has heights rising over Scandinavia while the former does not even entertain such a scenario, with high pressure hundreds of miles east over northern Russia.

jirafa

Still no clearer,the outlook-uncertainty-continues.:(:(:(:(

WolfeIRE

jirafa wrote: »

Still no clearer,the outlook-uncertainty-continues.:(:(:(:(

The UKMO and ECM seem to be performing consistently in recent days but the GEFS appears to be throwing up every kind of scenario with each run. It may be struggling to correctly handle a warming stratosphere and the prospects of the AO and NAO entering negative territory. A most frustrating time for model watching beyond the short term.

Maybe Sponge's rooks have a better handle of things. :pac: Or is it crows?

TheMilkyPirate

Well as you can see quite a difference between the ecm and gfs at +216

ECM:


GFS:


As has already been mentioned the GFS has been performing badly lately throwing up a lot of different scenarios and struggling to get a grip on things. For this reason you would be better to stick to the ECM which obviously is looking a lot better for cold prospects.

Hopefully the 12z ECM sticks to it's guns and doesn't go down the route of the GFS. The UKMO seems to be with the ECM out to +144 which is it's limit, So the next run of the UKMO and ECM will be very interesting.

jirafa

Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.
Forecast and outcome?
Posted Thu, 12 Jan 2012 08:04:32

Last Sunday I made a post called ‘Chance of cold?’ which included forecast charts for next Monday generated from the ECM and GFS computer models. This morning we’re halfway to that forecast time so I’ve included the latest ECM and GFS charts for comparison to see how they’re doing. The new charts should be a lot more accurate because they’re not looking as far ahead. So what’s the general picture? The overall pattern is similar in all of the charts with blocking high pressure over Britain and to the east, so that has been well forecast. However, there are some significant differences in the details. In particular the cold pooling to the east is more fragmented and less intense, and the centre of the blocking high pressure seems to be slightly further south. In terms of the weather in Britain this means that although temperatures will be on the low side early next week it probably wont be as cold as was looking likely. It also means that later in the week a change to a cool westerly flow is very much more likely than an easterly air stream. Despite this it looks like a very interesting period of weather, with colder conditions at times. The second half of next week could bring significant sleet or snow to high ground in the north.

darkman2

ECM solid again this evening from 144hrs.

blackius

I'm going to have to put Jiraffa on ignore because anytime I read anything from TWO,we end up having mild winters.
I stuck with netweather in the run up to december 10 and look what happened

Now that said,the ECM...tonight softly softly catchy wormey.

If it were to verify,the title of this thread would be bang on the money as we'd (from a cursory glance at tonights ecm) have a polar northwesterly and then if the low head the way it probably should and with highs building in the right places [you know where you want them,we'd have a northeasterly with bone chilling cold by the last week in january.

A lot of if's and maybe's but I like the way it's going but won't bite beyond that untill I see this coming inside a 5 day range.
The stepping stones tonight are still outside the reliable as they are a week away but encouraging.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

+216 is savage !

pistolpetes11

blackius wrote: »

I'm going to have to put Jiraffa on ignore because anytime I read anything from TWO,we end up having mild winters.
I stuck with netweather in the run up to december 10 and look what happened

Now that said,the ECM...tonight softly softly catchy wormey.

If it were to verify,the title of this thread would be bang on the money as we'd (from a cursory glance at tonights ecm) have a polar northwesterly and then if the low head the way it probably should and with highs building in the right places [you know where you want them,we'd have a northeasterly with bone chilling cold by the last week in january.

A lot of if's and maybe's but I like the way it's going but won't bite beyond that untill I see this coming inside a 5 day range.
The stepping stones tonight are still outside the reliable as they are a week away but encouraging.

I was having a moment of weakness after many months hoping for cold but mother nature would not deliver,

Anyway , had a read of something Matt Hugo put up on his twitter feed .





Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 10h
Some latest thoughts on the stat of the strat and PV - http://t.co/wzHLw6Z5

Peter Walsh @ppetes11 Close
@MattHugo81 Thats the final nail in the winter coffin for me anyway .
8:40 AM - 12 Jan 12 via web · Details
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Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 10h · Details
@ppetes11 - There's a long way to go yet, the severe winter of 1947 didn't kick in until late Jan & lasted through to March...#alltoplayfor

darkman2

Tentative support for the ECM outlook from the JMA and GEM models