Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

pistolpetes11

t|nt|n wrote: »

+216 is savage !

You know the Rule

Pics OGTFO !

Well in this case a chart will do !

Think this is what you were talking about ?




Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 3m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
The ECM ENS in about an hr will be very important to gauge whether the 12Z ECM Det has support or it's a wild unlikely outlier...stay tuned.

Typical Il be out playing football , someone text me so I dont come home and want to put the mac through the window !

Musicman2000

Cracker of and ECM 12z run this evening if you like cold:) But we still have one problem the GFS is still not in agreement

darkman2

M.T. Cranium

I think a sub-plot of the drama is whether or not the current blocking episode, set to deliver colder weather for 3-4 days, actually does end as shown on models or whether it just hangs around and transforms into the deeper cold pattern of the ECM at day 8. I'm not totally convinced that the energy coming out of North America around Monday-Tuesday will be all that strong. Whatever the outcome of that, the ECM seems to be responding faster to developments around Alaska where massive blocking is developing in the next five days. A 580 dm upper high will be cut off near the Bering Strait leading to pulses of very high surface pressure, but models are having some trouble resolving how much of that buildup is released southeast into North America and how much hangs around capable of ridging towards Greenland or northern Russia across the nearby polar region.

Personally, I'm optimistic about cold and even snow entering the picture by day 8 or 9. But it may be relatively cold most days before that too.

yorlum11

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

I think a sub-plot of the drama is whether or not the current blocking episode, set to deliver colder weather for 3-4 days, actually does end as shown on models or whether it just hangs around and transforms into the deeper cold pattern of the ECM at day 8. I'm not totally convinced that the energy coming out of North America around Monday-Tuesday will be all that strong. Whatever the outcome of that, the ECM seems to be responding faster to developments around Alaska where massive blocking is developing in the next five days. A 580 dm upper high will be cut off near the Bering Strait leading to pulses of very high surface pressure, but models are having some trouble resolving how much of that buildup is released southeast into North America and how much hangs around capable of ridging towards Greenland or northern Russia across the nearby polar region.

Personally, I'm optimistic about cold and even snow entering the picture by day 8 or 9. But it may be relatively cold most days before that too.

Thanks for that update M.T. your insight is always refreshing!!

derekon

Want some snow?

Check out the following live feed, right from Chicago (Wrigley Field) - you can see the snow streaming NOW! (Thursday evening here, afternoon their time)......current temp in Chicago is -1oC......maybe a wee bit of that snow will rub off here?!! :D

D

http://www.sportsworldchicago.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/#.Tw9BfoFnggo

jirafa

Widespread winterlike conditions across Europe

A few days back I advised that the patterns which have hitherto dominated winter 2011-12 across Europe were about to be modified as a result of upper atmosphere heating – stratwarming – beginning to take place across parts of the Arctic.
The change for Europe is that the massive Polar Depression, that has been practically geostationary for most of this season, is being ‘overmined’ and fragmented by stratwarming, with the Arctic Oscillation that produces resultant high-latitude weather systems being weakened and disrupted.
For North-West Europe a harbinger of the change will be the cold, bright and largely dry upcoming weekend, followed early next week by a return of westerlies which, as they move into the colder air, appear likely to generate temporary snow across northern uplands and locally at lower levels in some locations across the north and east.
As indicated in my previous article on this the situation for Europe as a whole becomes still more intriguing from about 20 January onwards. There are two mechanisms to monitor.
Firstly, intense continental cold will finally develop across much of central and northern Russia – for the first time this northern hemisphere winter. A side story to this is that milder-than-trend conditions across Siberia may have temporarily propelled the planet back into a ‘positive’ global warming scenario… more on this in a future ClimateWatch article.
Secondly, elements of the Polar Depression look set to transit southwards – towards northern and eastern Europe, allowing the Canadian Depression to begin to develop over the Greenland region. As foreseen in the PWS wintercast chill conditions will be embedded within the circulation of both macro depressions, meaning that the majority of north European airspace - most of Scandinavia, central, eastern – as well as parts of south-eastern Europe - are already assured a generally cold conclusion to January…
The big question is to what extent North-West Europe, incorporating the UK, will be affected by the cold. With breezy, but chill Atlantic-driven activity seeking to continue to affect the UK from the west and north-west, there is ample chance for secondary lows and bands of rain, sleet and snow to affect our neighbourhood as these transit into colder air developing to the east of the UK. Mild air will typically be forced to remain over western and southern regions. The probability for chill weather and transient wonderstuff therefore remains greatest across upland, northern and eastern regions. Across northern uplands and in the far north the cold may persist for long enough for snow to remain on the ground for a while.
Such a scenario does however seem to preclude any prospect of a repeat of the intense cold that affected North-West Europe during November and December 2010. Our cousins in Scandinavia and across central, northern and eastern Europe will witness the majority of this late wintry activity.
The 2011-12 season therefore seems likely to be concentrated in this single episode. Most of February in the UK appears characterised by a return of milder weather, set to affect progressively more and more of the rest of Europe as the month unfolds. The season generally will reveal itself to have been wetter and milder across most of our continent compared to the 30-year mean.
PWS does however anticipate that the cold will remain entrenched to the north, east and across Russia, and there is a strong possibility that it will also affect at least central Europe during early March. Can it return towards the UK too? Stay with PWS to find out…

Ray Anthony/Chief Assistant Weather Forecaster/Positive Weather Solutions
Thursday January 12th 2012

H2UMrsRobinson

derekon wrote: »

Want some snow?

Check out the following live feed, right from Chicago (Wrigley Field) - you can see the snow streaming NOW! (Thursday evening here, afternoon their time)......current temp in Chicago is -1oC......maybe a wee bit of that snow will rub off here?!! :D

D

http://www.sportsworldchicago.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/#.Tw9BfoFnggo

I watched that for 15 mins solid....it was the snow equivalent of a nicotine patch. Similar buzz but not as satisfying as the real thing!

WolfeIRE

View of Northern Hemisphere on 22 Jan showing cold over Europe

pistolpetes11

Matt Hugo just tweeted that the ECM ENC clusters are very promising and support the last run of the ECM ,


Very promising indeed !

darkman2

Yes,the ensembles are quite good. Here is the mean of the 50 ensemble members of the ECM set at 192hrs. Proper support for the first phase of increasingly cold weather from Wednesday next week.

ninebeanrows

derekon wrote: »

Want some snow?

Check out the following live feed, right from Chicago (Wrigley Field) - you can see the snow streaming NOW! (Thursday evening here, afternoon their time)......current temp in Chicago is -1oC......maybe a wee bit of that snow will rub off here?!! :D

D

http://www.sportsworldchicago.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/#.Tw9BfoFnggo

Cool, i was there just a few months ago when it was probably a good 35/40c warmer!

Good signs tonight from the output and a more realistic route to cold weather shown from the ECM

TheMilkyPirate

baraca wrote: »

Hopefully the 12z ECM sticks to it's guns and doesn't go down the route of the GFS.

Well it stuck to them alright, Matter of fact it upgraded them! That's a nice solid trend from the ECM and with the JMA UKMO and the lesser NOGAPS showing support, And the 12z ECM ensembles. Surely it's only a matter of time before the GFS comes on board?

18z eagerly awaited...

Musicman2000

baraca wrote: »

Well it stuck to them alright, Matter of fact it upgraded them! That's a nice solid trend from the ECM and with the JMA UKMO and the lesser NOGAPS showing support, And the 12z ECM ensembles. Surely it's only a matter of time before the GFS comes on board?

18z eagerly awaited...

I wouldnt be expecting much from the 18z, Hopefully some support on the morning run's.

derekon

jirafa wrote: »

Widespread winterlike conditions across Europe

A few days back I advised that the patterns which have hitherto dominated winter 2011-12 across Europe were about to be modified as a result of upper atmosphere heating – stratwarming – beginning to take place across parts of the Arctic.
The change for Europe is that the massive Polar Depression, that has been practically geostationary for most of this season, is being ‘overmined’ and fragmented by stratwarming, with the Arctic Oscillation that produces resultant high-latitude weather systems being weakened and disrupted.
For North-West Europe a harbinger of the change will be the cold, bright and largely dry upcoming weekend, followed early next week by a return of westerlies which, as they move into the colder air, appear likely to generate temporary snow across northern uplands and locally at lower levels in some locations across the north and east.
As indicated in my previous article on this the situation for Europe as a whole becomes still more intriguing from about 20 January onwards. There are two mechanisms to monitor.
Firstly, intense continental cold will finally develop across much of central and northern Russia – for the first time this northern hemisphere winter. A side story to this is that milder-than-trend conditions across Siberia may have temporarily propelled the planet back into a ‘positive’ global warming scenario… more on this in a future ClimateWatch article.
Secondly, elements of the Polar Depression look set to transit southwards – towards northern and eastern Europe, allowing the Canadian Depression to begin to develop over the Greenland region. As foreseen in the PWS wintercast chill conditions will be embedded within the circulation of both macro depressions, meaning that the majority of north European airspace - most of Scandinavia, central, eastern – as well as parts of south-eastern Europe - are already assured a generally cold conclusion to January…
The big question is to what extent North-West Europe, incorporating the UK, will be affected by the cold. With breezy, but chill Atlantic-driven activity seeking to continue to affect the UK from the west and north-west, there is ample chance for secondary lows and bands of rain, sleet and snow to affect our neighbourhood as these transit into colder air developing to the east of the UK. Mild air will typically be forced to remain over western and southern regions. The probability for chill weather and transient wonderstuff therefore remains greatest across upland, northern and eastern regions. Across northern uplands and in the far north the cold may persist for long enough for snow to remain on the ground for a while.
Such a scenario does however seem to preclude any prospect of a repeat of the intense cold that affected North-West Europe during November and December 2010. Our cousins in Scandinavia and across central, northern and eastern Europe will witness the majority of this late wintry activity.
The 2011-12 season therefore seems likely to be concentrated in this single episode. Most of February in the UK appears characterised by a return of milder weather, set to affect progressively more and more of the rest of Europe as the month unfolds. The season generally will reveal itself to have been wetter and milder across most of our continent compared to the 30-year mean.
PWS does however anticipate that the cold will remain entrenched to the north, east and across Russia, and there is a strong possibility that it will also affect at least central Europe during early March. Can it return towards the UK too? Stay with PWS to find out…

Ray Anthony/Chief Assistant Weather Forecaster/Positive Weather Solutions
Thursday January 12th 2012

Ok no offence jirafa, but I am not reading any more of your posts. They always tend to disappoint a cold lover like me (not your fault!!). Please let us live in hope at least............;)

I do however take some consolation from MT's comments this evening that he is confident we will see some cold and even snow by around the 20-22 January so I am grasping onto this for dear life !! :D

D

blackius

Ecm op run has to quote matt Hugo remarkable ensemble support!
The snow train cometh nearer slowly.
Hold on tight!
Secure you hand luggage.

derekon

Weathercheck wrote: »

Cool, i was there just a few months ago when it was probably a good 35/40c warmer!

Good signs tonight from the output and a more realistic route to cold weather shown from the ECM

Glad you enjoyed Weathercheck (and you too Mrs Robinson!)

ECM runs looking good today. We might have some of the white stuff over our own Fair City later this month............:)

D

WolfeIRE

baraca wrote: »

Well it stuck to them alright, Matter of fact it upgraded them! That's a nice solid trend from the ECM and with the JMA UKMO and the lesser NOGAPS showing support, And the 12z ECM ensembles. Surely it's only a matter of time before the GFS comes on board?

18z eagerly awaited...

If the GFS was the only model showing cold weather we would probably be asking when the other models would be coming on board

Who knows, maybe the GEFS does not believe that the current warming event in the stratosphere is significant enough to flood eastern europe/scan with cold air.

MT does make a good point though when he says the GFS might be overestimating the strength of the jet out of the US on Monday and Tuesday. It is the GFS' interpretation of the Jet and its consequences on this side of the Atlantic that are current dictating the output for the period where the ECM is showing cold.

As Musicman said, it may be tomorrow morning or even the weekend before we see some 'trend' agreement across the various models.

derekon

WolfeIRE wrote: »

If the GFS was the only model showing cold weather we would probably be asking when the other models would be coming on board

Who knows, maybe the GEFS does not believe that the current warming event in the stratosphere is significant enough to flood eastern europe/scan with cold air.

MT does make a good point though when he says the GFS might be overestimating the strength of the jet out of the US on Monday and Tuesday. It is the GFS' interpretation of the Jet and its consequences on this side of the Atlantic that are current dictating the output for the period where the ECM is showing cold.

As Musicman said, it may tomorrow morning or even the weekend before we see some 'trend' agreement across the various models.

I am happy though that the ECMWF is on board for a decent shot of cold middle of next week. I have always found this the most reliable and it is the one that Evelyn uses after all..............:D

D

WolfeIRE

derekon wrote: »

I am happy though that the ECMWF is on board for a decent shot of cold middle of next week. I have always found this the most reliable and it is the one that Evelyn uses after all..............:D

D

Which is why their online forecast went from mentioning mild for much of next week yesterday to referring only up to Monday today. They may hint at the possibility of colder weather in tomorrow morning's update.

esposito

Even Evelyn was pointing to colder weather towards the end of next week. Woohoo!

WolfeIRE

esposito wrote: »

Even Evelyn was pointing to colder weather towards the end of next week. Woohoo!

So that's why the forum jumped by 80 users in the past few mins

rhonin

derekon wrote: »

Want some snow?

Check out the following live feed, right from Chicago (Wrigley Field) - you can see the snow streaming NOW! (Thursday evening here, afternoon their time)......current temp in Chicago is -1oC......maybe a wee bit of that snow will rub off here?!! :D

D

http://www.sportsworldchicago.com/category/a_cubworld_cam/#.Tw9BfoFnggo

Aptly named coupon code on the ad above the stream - blizzard!!

Sponge Bob

jirafa wrote: »

Mild air will typically be forced to remain over western and southern regions. The probability for chill weather and transient wonderstuff therefore remains greatest across upland, northern and eastern regions.

Ray Anthony/Chief Assistant Weather Forecaster/Positive Weather Solutions
Thursday January 12th 2012

Perfectly clear to me. No wonder they are called Positive Weather Solutions.

Wild Bill

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Personally, I'm optimistic about cold and even snow entering the picture by day 8 or 9. But it may be relatively cold most days before that too.

So! We are still set for the Great Wild Bill Blizzard of Jan 20th?

tzfrantic

Wild Bill wrote: »

So! We are still set for the Great Wild Bill Blizzard of Jan 20th?

could be let's hope for the cold snowy weather

Sponge Bob

Every Blizzard is Great and The Wild Bill Blizzard sounds like a damn good name for one. BUT if it happens either side of the 20th I'll bags both the 19th and the 21st for Wolfie right now.

irishdub14

I miss the streamers from last year, there better be some next week!

To Alcohol

Graupel

Musicman2000

Gfs 18z off on its own again, Chalk and cheese to the Ecm run 12z, The only model on the same trend as the Gfs is the NOGAPS, Please let there not be another flip tomorrow:mad: