Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

doccy

The NOAA are discarding the GFS runs past 3 or 4 days, surely a sign of unreliability. Whatever happens, it's going to be a lot colder in a week or so.

BLIZZARD7

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Gfs 18z off on its own again, Chalk and cheese to the Ecm run 12z, The only model on the same trend as the Gfs is the NOGAPS, Please let there not be another flip tomorrow:mad:

I think were safe tbh, the differences start at +96 hrs!

ECM/UKMO vs GFS at 96hrs = No contest in my opinion-Expect 00Z GFS to fall into line with ECM/UKMO. I just hope that they continue todays trend!

Overall its looking Good imo, I reckon from tomorrow on we will start to see how cold its going to get, as I think its now a matter of how cold rather than if it gets cold. I am 99% sure that ECM\UKMO will prove correct. If not it will be the biggest win for the GFS that I have ever seen, UKMO/ECM are NEVER wrong at that timeframe, maybe one of them but not both!





Dan

TheMilkyPirate

WolfeIRE wrote: »

If the GFS was the only model showing cold weather we would probably be asking when the other models would be coming on board

Probably! :P

But not to this extent, A UKMO/ECM combination against the GFS is a lot stronger than the GFS against both. And as blizzard pointed out at 96hrs it would be quite a shock if it was the ECM and UKMO that were wrong.

But this is the weather so it wouldn't surprise me one bit really.

WolfeIRE

let's hope Friday 13th isn't a horror show for the models.

tomorrows runs will determine a lot.

davidsr20

Hopefully things will look up but when I log on in the morning I'm hoping for better things than the last few!what date are we looking at for cold or is it still around the 20th?

blackius

baraca wrote: »

Probably! :P

But not to this extent, A UKMO/ECM combination against the GFS is a lot stronger than the GFS against both. And as blizzard pointed out at 96hrs it would be quite a shock if it was the ECM and UKMO that were wrong.

But this is the weather so it wouldn't surprise me one bit really.

Agreed.
Anything could happen ,preferably an exciting cold synoptic.
It's going to have to be inside 120 though

Danno

Wasn't the GFS the star performer for Dec 2010?

cherryghost

I'll go with an Enderblizzard on the 23rd :P

cherryghost

Danno wrote: »

Wasn't the GFS the star performer for Dec 2010?

Just looked at the older threads and nope, the earlier charts went for ECM. GFS was trending towards milder sequences.

EDIT: UKMO was in line with ECM over that period too, apparently.

kittyn

Enderman wrote: »

I'll go with an Enderblizzard on the 23rd :P

I'm likin your style lol Here's to seeing lots of white ;-)

mickger844posts

GFS 0Z falling into line with others.

sdanseo

It's -1 outside right now.

Now, what I don't understand is this: it's been said on here that the 500hPa thicknesses (I understand this is the measure of the thickness between 500hPa and 1013hPa?) must be around 528dm or lower to produce snow. At the moment, thickness is around 568dm. Yet with the temperature and dewpoint outside both being sub-zero, surely any precipitation would HAVE to be snow whatever the thickness? Or is it precisely because of the high thickness (and thus presumably, high pressure) that precipitation CANNOT be generated at present?

Effectively what I'm asking is, why is a high thickness incompatible with snowfall, and is it incompatible with precipitation in general? If so, only a certain type, or all? (I'm talking about lake effect etc).

I think I actually probably understand this OK, that my hunch is right and that I'm overcomplicating things, but I equally think I could be stumbling about in the dark. Can anyone turn on the light for me?

WolfeIRE

ecmwf sticking to its guns bringing colder weather from the north late on 18th. the ecmwf 0z intensifies the cold a tad compared to 12z. with gefs falling a little more into line, the first prolonged cold spell of significance this winter is becoming increasingly likely

mickger844posts

As wolfe said above ECM 0Z sticking to its guns.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Which is why their online forecast went from mentioning mild for much of next week yesterday to referring only up to Monday today. They may hint at the possibility of colder weather in tomorrow morning's update.

ME now talking about wintry weather from Wednesday in their online forecast. That's the 18th sponge bob!!

mercenary2

tank god im booked to go to morroco region on 21st 20 deg or above

WolfeIRE

GEFS is clearly seeing (takes a few secs to load) a sharp rise into positive territory for the AO, which may explain its reading of the situation for the end of next week i.e. milder than ECM or UKMO.

Sponge Bob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

ME now talking about wintry weather from Wednesday in their online forecast. That's the 18th sponge bob!!

We'll have to give someone else the naming rights on that blizzard if it starts on the 18th Wolfie, you have been assigned the 19th starting at 0z

Rebelbrowser

Yeah on Netweather they see the GFS run at 0z as fairly consistent with previous runs and are concerned it might still prove correct. Was hoping MT's forecast this morning might be a bit more definitive on longer term cold too but clearly even he isn't sure yet. Fingers firmly crossed here though....

irish1967

Sponge Bob wrote: »

We'll have to give someone else the naming rights on that blizzard if it starts on the 18th Wolfie, you have been assigned the 19th starting at 0z

Think it would only be fair to name it .....

SpongeWolfe

If it starts on the 18th.

kstand

A crow report would be greatly appreciated at this juncture Sponge Bob. I feel we are at some sort of a threshold.

Sponge Bob

kstand wrote: »

A crow report would be greatly appreciated at this juncture Sponge Bob. I feel we are at some sort of a threshold.

Thick fog and accurate crow observation does not for make Kstand. :cool:

Redsunset

Another excellent ECM 32 day update, with an E or NE'ly signalled between the 23rd/29th Jan, as per EC Det
Matt Hugo

Redsunset

Oh it gets better
ECM 32 Day - 6th - 12th Feb high pressure over Greenland/NW UK & low pressure to the S or SE with further N or NE'lies - a cold EC 32 update
Matt Hugo

blackius

@redsunset

Beyond day 10,that 32 day ensemble is like looking at tea leaves useless!

You go back over matt Hugo's twitter posts and see what he was saying about the ecm a month ago,a forthnight ago and you'll see that it's with all due respect to you nonsense to say it gets better if the 32 dayer says we'll have a block to the NW on feb 14th.
It may aswell say we will have widespread tornado's!

Point being and point often being forgotten in the ether here lately is that FI is still FI no matter who is tweeting it.
Beyond 10 days is virtually useless in my humble opinion right now even with the ECM,with model output being in such a state of flux.

Don't get carried away!
I'm sure Matt's brief twitter comments are more a statement of the eye candy rather than a belief that they could ever verify.

WolfeIRE

This is no time for pragmatism, Black. Did you not know that snowysteria has set in?

6Z GFS rolling out. Would be more inclined to wait until after the 12z before commenting on the model and whether it is holding its own or falling into line with the ECM. It certainly did make some movement toward the ECM's line of thinking overnight.

blackius

It's certainly set in on you alright lol
I've never seen such a transformation into looking for it under every dusty crevice of the models

Rebelbrowser

blackius wrote: »

@redsunset

say it gets better if the 32 dayer says we'll have a block to the NW on feb 14th.
It may aswell say we will have widespread tornado's!
.

Widespread tornados on Valentine's Day you say! I'm going to ring the Daily Mail straight away - I can see it now "A leading meteorologist has predicted widespread tornados on 14 February. Experts are already dubbing it the Valentine's Day Tornado Massacre..."

Sponge Bob

WolfeIRE wrote: »

This is no time for pragmatism, Black. Did you not know that snowysteria has set in?

The fog is clearing around here thank God, I'll check the crows.

davidsr20

Sponge Bob wrote: »

The fog is clearing around here thank God, I'll check the crows.

:rolleyes:

Anyway back to we're starting to look good for the cold