Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Musicman2000

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Ultimately, it's the failure of the high to build off eastern canada into Greenland as happens on the ECM. This indeed does happen at around 240hrs in the gefs but that is way to far our to be read into in any great detail. The GFS pushes that low near Iceland much further south in this run alright which has the effect of dragging colder air further south over us on Thursday than was shown on the previous GFS run.

The fear now is that the ECM will lose its consistency and follow the GFS lead in downgrading any ridging toward Greenland next week. Or the ECM could stand its ground which would leave us in an unusual situation i.e. having the GEFS and ECM being very different 5 days out.

I think we will see a back down from the Ecm later, will be more off a half way house situation something like the UKMO are showing.

Harps

Yeah I'd be surprised to see the ECM win on this one for a change, usually the other way about, guess we'll know in half an hour or so anyway

WolfeIRE

While you're waiting for ECM....

An Accuweather article comparing the GFS and ECM for accuracy

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/weathermatrix/why-are-the-models-so-inaccurate/18097

WolfeIRE

ECM seems to be holding its own up to 120hrs

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Waiting for this ECM is nailbiting !

Musicman2000

t|nt|n wrote: »

Waiting for this ECM is nailbiting !

Trending more towards the Gfs

Sponge Bob

Harps wrote: »

From what I can see the GFS develops an intense low south of Iceland on Monday night which doesn't appear on UKMO or ECMWF

That low is a new feature of the 12z run. There were no storms 'out there' until that one showed up. I would start to take it seriously were it still in the next 00z because GFS does not invent false signal or one run only storms that often.

BEASTERLY

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Trending more towards the Gfs

No it's not! Vastly different to GFS at 144hrs.

Harps

Sponge Bob wrote: »

That low is a new feature of the 12z run. There were no storms 'out there' until that one showed up. I would start to take it seriously were it still in the next 00z because GFS does not invent false signal or one run only storms that often.

First run I really looked at since Wednesday night so not sure what the last few runs have been showing, the storm is showing on the ECMWF now as well I see

Anyway ECM is out to 144h now, seems to be sticking to its guns so far

Tom Cruises Left Nut

144 looks better

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WolfeIRE

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Trending more towards the Gfs

Only very slightly but not enough to have a bearing on what it has been signalling for the past few days, Music.

Ridging still taking place reducing the chances of the GFS eastern Canada storm from breaking out into the Atlantic.

One thing that is noticeable is that the cold doesn't track as far south on Thursday as it did earlier in the 0z.

UPDATE

168hrs looks great now too.

GEFS storm follows track of 0ZECM i.e. up the west coast of Greenland. Track determined by continued ridging.

Musicman2000

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Only very slightly but not enough to have a bearing on what it has been signalling for the past few days, Music.

Ridging still taking place reducing the chances of the GFS eastern Canada storm from breaking out into the Atlantic.

One thing that is noticeable is that the cold doesn't track as far south on Thursday as it did earlier in the 0z.

UPDATE

168hrs looks great now too.

GEFS storm follows track of 0ZECM i.e. up the west coast of Greenland. Track determined by continued ridging.

168 not bad at all:)

WolfeIRE

ECM holding its own and the GEFS changing slightly in favour of ECM.

Can only mean one thing...

Answers on a postcard

192hrs

Tom Cruises Left Nut

The pub run is going to be interesting. One of them has to give up but ECM seems to have better support in the ensembles

BEASTERLY

One thing though, were not tapping into very cold air. High is too dominant and too far south over Russia.

EDIT: 216 is nice

Musicman2000

Not bad at all, Even a slight ramp from Evelyn after the six one news.

Redsunset

Yes the lovely Evelyn with that cheeky grin. Oh tis very hard not to get somewhat excited bout the prospects but past disappointments are always a constant memory

Harps

A nice ECMWF run then, can't take the latter stages too seriously with such different outputs from the major models but with the ECMWF typically the more accurate its looking good for some winter weather. Quite a slack flow so its not going to drag down any extreme cold but its a progressive set up and after what we've had for the past 4 weeks I'd gladly take it

If you look at the overall output on the N hemisphere chart there's little difference between GFS, ECM etc but its the small details that give such varying weather to our part of the world. Can't imagine the 18z will suddenly shift but again interesting to see what happens next

Musicman2000

Harps wrote: »

A nice ECMWF run then, can't take the latter stages too seriously with such different outputs from the major models but with the ECMWF typically the more accurate its looking good for some winter weather. Quite a slack flow so its not going to drag down any extreme cold but its a progressive set up and after what we've had for the past 4 weeks I'd gladly take it

If you look at the overall output on the N hemisphere chart there's little difference between GFS, ECM etc but its the small details that give such varying weather to our part of the world. Can't imagine the 18z will suddenly shift but again interesting to see what happens next

Maybe its just me but the 12run could be even a slight upgrade on this mornings run, and the Jma backing the ECM now, but we have being here before when everything comes tumbling down. So lets not get out hopes up to much just yet:)

DOCARCH

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Not bad at all, Even a slight ramp from Evelyn after the six one news.

Really sticking her neck out showing a chart 8 days away!

snaps

DOCARCH wrote: »

Really sticking her neck out showing a chart 8 days away!

Well the ME website even have a future forecast for next weekend!!

Kippure

Its the same situtation with the start to every cold spell, period, age ive known, the models havent a grasp on the modeling of it. One contradicts the other. Its a good sign for us.:D

M.T. Cranium

The situation looks volatile now as the flow is buckling all around the hemisphere, often a signal of blocking to follow.

Western North America has had a rather benign winter to date (south of Alaska, that is) but that's all going to change big-time over the weekend. Following a moderate cold wave this week, we are looking at severe cold developing over Alaska today and spreading rapidly southeast to force the storm track to southern BC then into Washington state over the weekend and early next week. The net result will be several days of snow turning heavy at times around here (Vancouver area) and blizzard conditions on Vancouver Island where outflow winds from the northeast howl across the open waters and bring sea effect squalls to enhance the snowfall amounts.

Expecting to be buried in 20-40 cms of snow here by mid-week and 40-70 cms potentially on eastern and southern Vancouver Island. The cold will be severe, -8 to -12 C around here is exceptional, and -30 to -45 C in the central interior regions of BC, to -55 C in parts of the Yukon. This severe winter weather will spread into all parts of western Canada and the north-central to northwest U.S. during the week. It has also been a rather bland winter in the southwest U.S. except for one or two windstorms (Santa Ana type outflow winds hitting southern California) but this change in the pattern will probably bring heavy rains and mountain snows to that region.

It has also been a very mild and bland winter in the northeast U.S., in fact New York City has seen no snow at all since that pre-Halloween storm that was mostly slush in the city, 10-20 inches inland. The snow drought continues despite colder air this weekend, but in the Great Lakes there are some locally heavy snow squalls, notably around Buffalo NY.

Anyway, it would not surprise me if the Siberian high splits and you also get a good shot of cold air perhaps more vigorous than even the ECM is currently showing. Ten days is a long time and you should watch for potential upgrades of the situation once the flow turns more to north and northeast, a larger slug of cold air could engage and turn the situation very wintry in the UK and Ireland. On today's ECM model maps, I would say some chance of locally heavy snowfalls around Dublin by Sunday 22nd, not vastly different looking from the early stages of the Nov 2010 events.

only one

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The situation looks volatile now as the flow is buckling all around the hemisphere, often a signal of blocking to follow.

Western North America has had a rather benign winter to date (south of Alaska, that is) but that's all going to change big-time over the weekend. Following a moderate cold wave this week, we are looking at severe cold developing over Alaska today and spreading rapidly southeast to force the storm track to southern BC then into Washington state over the weekend and early next week. The net result will be several days of snow turning heavy at times around here (Vancouver area) and blizzard conditions on Vancouver Island where outflow winds from the northeast howl across the open waters and bring sea effect squalls to enhance the snowfall amounts.

Expecting to be buried in 20-40 cms of snow here by mid-week and 40-70 cms potentially on eastern and southern Vancouver Island. The cold will be severe, -8 to -12 C around here is exceptional, and -30 to -45 C in the central interior regions of BC, to -55 C in parts of the Yukon. This severe winter weather will spread into all parts of western Canada and the north-central to northwest U.S. during the week. It has also been a rather bland winter in the southwest U.S. except for one or two windstorms (Santa Ana type outflow winds hitting southern California) but this change in the pattern will probably bring heavy rains and mountain snows to that region.

It has also been a very mild and bland winter in the northeast U.S., in fact New York City has seen no snow at all since that pre-Halloween storm that was mostly slush in the city, 10-20 inches inland. The snow drought continues despite colder air this weekend, but in the Great Lakes there are some locally heavy snow squalls, notably around Buffalo NY.

Anyway, it would not surprise me if the Siberian high splits and you also get a good shot of cold air perhaps more vigorous than even the ECM is currently showing. Ten days is a long time and you should watch for potential upgrades of the situation once the flow turns more to north and northeast, a larger slug of cold air could engage and turn the situation very wintry in the UK and Ireland. On today's ECM model maps, I would say some chance of locally heavy snowfalls around Dublin by Sunday 22nd, not vastly different looking from the early stages of the Nov 2010 events.

I'm praying for snow in the south east with this

Sponge Bob

I bags naming rights for the 22nd for MT.

Quick Recap on the situation as it has developed rapidly.

19th Wolfies Blizzard
20th Wild Bill Blizzard
21st The Great Wolfie Blizzard
22nd The MT Blizzard or the Canadian Blizzard (MTs choice)
23rd EnderBlizzard
24th The Great White Out of Jan 24th (Redsunset may wish to reconsider that one in time )
25th Baracablizzard
26th The Su Su Super Snowstorm AND if the event is co-incident with a record low temperature for THAT date at ANY IMT station used in Board competition the naming rights go to Calibos as a happy birthday treat
27th The BEASTERLY'S Easterly Blizzard
28th The great blizzard of Ireland except the south east Onlyone
29th Del's winter-wonder land Delw
30th Robbos Revenge Blizzard ( Heres 2 u Mrs R)
31st The Docharch wouldn't name it Blizzard

Rules

One Name per day. Line up for the rest of January the rest of ye and
No naming of any Feb events allowed.
Sponge Bob not allowed to have any snow event named after himself in January 2012.
If you don't like your day name PM me your choice of name for it.
Final entries by posting into this thread by saturday 14th at midday Z

Redsunset

24th The Great White Out of Jan 24th

TheMilkyPirate

I'll take the 25th for the -BaracaBlizzard-

:pac:

Although I feel that will be a bit late

DOCARCH

Ah damm it! I wanted the 24th. Always good blizzards here on a Tuesday!

Sponge Bob

I'll give you Tuesday the 31st instead of the crows Docarch, final offer.

Rebelbrowser

baraca wrote: »

I'll take the 25th for the -BaracaBlizzard-

:pac:

Although I feel that will be a bit late

In his absence how about the Su Snowstorm on 26 Jan?