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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

WolfeIRE · 2012-01-04 12:27:07

Please note that this is an outlook based on two successive runs and increasing evidence that a northerly/north-easterly outbreak is indicated around or in the days following 15 January. It is not a guarantee that colder weather will occur post mid-January, although confidence is growing in relation to such an eventuality.…

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#572 13-01-2012 10:02pm
darkman2

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Agree with MT regarding volatility of the situation. The ECM ensembles are not quite as solid as this morning (but are still reasonably good) and the GFS is not on board really just yet. Let's see if the 18z GFS sheds any more light on the situation.

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#573 13-01-2012 10:06pm
WolfeIRE

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Did you hear the latest gossip ...

Lucreto posted a video in which Mark Vogan says he emailed Joe Bastardi who told him that cold weather is on the way to the UK and Ireland next weekend.

WolfeIRE
Presenter, Xpose

In other news, GFS starts to roll out at 9.30. Here is the link for anyone who may not have it. Note that it will update very slowly but should be complete by 11pm or so.

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#574 13-01-2012 10:21pm
only one

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28th the great blizzard of Ireland except the south east

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#575 13-01-2012 10:23pm
Rebelbrowser

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Just a general comment. If the cold next weekend verifies that's one helluva winter forecast so far by MTC

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#576 13-01-2012 10:27pm
Basq

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Don't mind a cold snap..

.. but am flying out to NYC on Feb 2nd.

As long as it doesn't affect that, I'm all for it!

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#577 13-01-2012 10:31pm
jo06555

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only one wrote: »

28th the great blizzard of Ireland except the south east

Nothing new their so met eireannn saying temps -3 for south next friday surely thats enough to bring some of the good stuff down ???????????

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#578 13-01-2012 10:31pm
Chuchu

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WhoooaH... even a mere mortal (lurker) like myself could not help but enjoy that smirk by EC before going into 8 day charts

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#579 13-01-2012 10:33pm
pauldry

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yes minus 8 next weekend apparently.

winters coming proper

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#580 13-01-2012 10:34pm
only one

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jo06555 wrote: »

only one wrote: »

28th the great blizzard of Ireland except the south east

Nothing new their so met eireannn saying temps -3 for south next friday surely thats enough to bring some of the good stuff down ???????????

Really? Fingers crossed eh

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#581 13-01-2012 10:46pm
BEASTERLY

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There will really be some depressing tone on here in the morning once the ECM falls in line with every other model...:p

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#582 13-01-2012 10:46pm
Fully Established

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Hi all only new on here ,my question is as follows is Ecmwf model regarded as the most accurate model?Thanks to any replies.

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#583 13-01-2012 10:48pm
Sponge Bob

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asked and answered already in this thread today!

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#584 13-01-2012 10:50pm
Darwin

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Fully Established wrote: »

Hi all only new on here ,my question is as follows is Ecmwf model regarded as the most accurate model?Thanks to any replies.

Hi and welcome!. Post #545 here answers your question:
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056503572&page=37

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#585 13-01-2012 10:51pm
BEASTERLY

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Fully Established wrote: »

Hi all only new on here ,my question is as follows is Ecmwf model regarded as the most accurate model?Thanks to any replies.

At medium range yes. GFS is only marginally less accurate in the 5-10 day time frame though. But I would go with the GFS for anything less than 3 days out. The important thing in this scenario is to look at all the models and see what the general consensus is. At them moment the GFS has most support from other models, unfortunately. Lets see how the 18z GFS turns out...

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#586 13-01-2012 10:54pm
H2UMrsRobinson

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Oh i'm taking the 30th - love a good competition

i'm naming it Robbo's Revenge...!

bring...it...on!!!!!!!!! :cool:

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#587 13-01-2012 10:54pm
Fully Established

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Darwin ,Beasterly
Thank you for the timely advice and response.
Fully Established

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#588 13-01-2012 10:57pm
Sponge Bob

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H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Oh i'm taking the 30th - love a good competition

Done, 2 slots left.

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#589 13-01-2012 11:01pm
jo06555

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Strange how all the excitment builds around a cold spell only for it to be qaushed
a few models later , i only came back on here after watching evelyn give her 8 day forecast but straight away i feel its a non starter here ...

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#590 13-01-2012 11:02pm
Elmer Blooker

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Fully Established wrote: »

Hi all only new on here ,my question is as follows is Ecmwf model regarded as the most accurate model?Thanks to any replies.

Met.ie use ECM which would explain Evelyn's ramp forecast tonight (8 days away) which I found strange. I must have heard her say a million times over the years that forecasts are only accurate up to about 5 days.
I would back the GFS at the moment, I dont think the Azores high will disappear that quickly but I may be wrong. We'll see ??

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#591 13-01-2012 11:04pm
BEASTERLY

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Sponge Bob wrote: »

Done, 2 slots left.

BEASTERLY'S Easterly Snow for the 27th???:)

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#592 13-01-2012 11:04pm
pistolpetes11

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BEASTERLY wrote: »

There will really be some depressing tone on here in the morning once the ECM falls in line with every other model...:p

Are all the other models against The ECM ?

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#593 13-01-2012 11:08pm
hotwhiskey

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BEASTERLY wrote: »

At medium range yes. GFS is only marginally less accurate in the 5-10 day time frame though. But I would go with the GFS for anything less than 3 days out. The important thing in this scenario is to look at all the models and see what the general consensus is. At them moment the GFS has most support from other models, unfortunately. Lets see how the 18z GFS turns out...

I have to disagree with you Beasterly on that other modules a turning more to ECM. GEFS ensemble member shows the same evolution at the same time frame that the ECM.

JMA backs the ECM.

http://www.meteociel...44-21.GIF?13-12
http://www.meteociel...68-21.GIF?13-12
http://www.meteociel...92-21.GIF?13-12

UKMO is sitting on the fence so to speak but have noticed on last run some of the charts have turn in favour of the ECM also look up 12z GEM +144 and 12z NOGAPS.

(if someone could pm me a easy way of posting charts here would be much appriecated)

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#594 13-01-2012 11:12pm
inabina

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DOCARCH wrote: »

Really sticking her neck out showing a chart 8 days away!

the way she sticks her neck out. respect. not one of her other TV colleagues would do it. regardless of the outcome....respect.

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#595 13-01-2012 11:17pm
delw

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Sponge Bob wrote: »

Done, 2 slots left.

i'll take what ever is left,"Del's winter-wonder land"

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#596 13-01-2012 11:20pm
pistolpetes11

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:mad::(:mad:

Matthew Hugo @MattHugo81 4m Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
Still some interesting ECM ENS clusters but there is a shift towards the GFS solution unfortunately for cold weather fans this evening...

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#597 13-01-2012 11:21pm
Sponge Bob

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All Blizzard Naming rights allocated now. Day allocated to person and renaming rights remain vested in the person whose day it is.

Full list here

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76497837&postcount=567

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#598 13-01-2012 11:23pm
pistolpetes11

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Sponge Bob wrote: »

All Blizzard Naming rights allocated now. Day allocated to person and renaming rights remain vested in the person whose day it is.

Full list here

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What happens if nothing happens ?

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#599 13-01-2012 11:23pm
BEASTERLY

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hotwhiskey wrote: »

I have to disagree with you Beasterly on that other modules a turning more to ECM. GEFS ensemble member shows the same evolution at the same time frame that the ECM.

JMA backs the ECM.

Now look, you've got me all excited! Why couldn't you just leave me be pessimistic! :P

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#600 13-01-2012 11:25pm
hotwhiskey

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Originally Posted by 200motels
I think we could have missed the boat on this supposedly cold spell. I know the models are all over the place and it's hard to get a grip on things but I don't think we're going to get any major cold spell this winter.

Min wrote: »

Well it is a boat that I hope is hijacked and kept away from Ireland.

Just for his badness what Min posted. Min-Blizzard

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#601 13-01-2012 11:29pm
WolfeIRE

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latest gefs not buying ecmwf cold outlook. Atlantic dominated weather next week into Friday at least

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