Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

faktisperminute

tylercollins wrote: »

And the media have begun..

http://www.newswireni.com/content/weather-warning-polar-air-bring-ice-and-snow-next-week

just Donegal?

tylercollins

I think because of the target audience of that website they are just referring to Derry and Donegal lol

derekon

Big downgrade on the 0Z ECM charts?

The 12z charts yesterday showed -8oC 850hPA temperatures over Ireland from next Friday 20th January right up to the end of its forecast sequence (for another four days after that).

However this has now changed to -8oC 850hPA temps over Ireland for next weekend for just 24 hours (with the real cold now appearing to head south over France rather than west over Ireland)

However, as MT has noted - there are large changes happening and if anything the ECM might be understating the cold somewhat.

The main thing would appear to be that from the end of next week, the trend is definitely towards colder weather. And also give current volatility in terms of models, anything past 3/4 days is just not reliable at the moment? :rolleyes:

D

ch750536

tzfrantic wrote: »

+2

Could the adding up posts be moved to the maths forum please.

Eastcoastryan

very quiet in here this morning, I'm guessing that means a downgrade? anybody want to give the current state of play?

garyha

Ukmo on twitter:

Met Office (@metoffice)
1/14/12 8:21 AM
To All of you who are interested in snow. There is NO snow forecast anywhere within the next 5 days

200motels

I couldn't believe M.E last night ramping so far ahead for next weekend, if Gerry Murphy is on he'll put a stop to this and have us in his beloved mild muck.

Rebelbrowser

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

very quiet in here this morning, I'm guessing that means a downgrade? anybody want to give the current state of play?

Could go any way yet. Believe!

JFKIRELAND

UKMO only mentioning next 5 days. I do not believe anyone was expecting snow in the next 5 days?:D

maquiladora

200motels wrote: »

I couldn't believe M.E last night ramping so far ahead for next weekend, if Gerry Murphy is on he'll put a stop to this and have us in his beloved mild muck.

It's all based on what the ECM shows. The previous ECM was showing cold conditions setting in. The current ECM has downgraded that somewhat so don't expect any ramping from ME today!

weatherfiend

I have to say it feels nice and frosty in the wind here today. After the sunny cold of yesterday and icy wind today I'm in good form

Gipo3

Evelyn is on about half twelve

smellslikeshoes

Gipo3 wrote: »

Evelyn is on about half twelve

Just missed that there, anything new?

Gipo3

smellslikeshoes wrote: »

Gipo3 wrote: »

Evelyn is on about half twelve

Just missed that there, anything new?

Wintry conditions by friday. Didn't say about next weekend.

Irish Steve

Nothing new, but they are not backing down that much on next weekend, the forecast was a live from the RDS one, and didn't go that far out as such, but certainly "mentioned" a cold and wintry period next weekend, "in contrast to the mild weather we've been having".

Not ramped up at all, but equally. and perhaps significantly, not ramped down, and still very much mentioned as on it's way for the weekend.

I suspect that's about as good as it's going to get for now.

blackius

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

very quiet in here this morning, I'm guessing that means a downgrade? anybody want to give the current state of play?

The current state of play is the biggest and usually most reliable medium term model which Eveylyn Cusack showed last night as having us shivering from next weekend has backed down from that prospect to basically more or less what we have now.

The ecm was with 2 of the lesser models the only one ramping up the cold.
The gfs never showed it at all.
However the gfs model beyond 5 days pretty much has shown a different scenario with each of it's 4 daily runs so it's not to be trusted either.


This mornings ecm run's ensembles show no sign of an easterly or cold,I understand.

That kind of flip flopping means simply we don't know whats going to happen.
It's a wait and see.

For cold and snow fans,it must be remembered that just as a few FI cold runs do not show a trend,one or even two mild ones don't either.

I've seen all this before,most regular model readers have...a change to mild in the models and a revert back to cold again and vice versa before they fully resolve what we may have.

So keep tuned.Theres more excitement to come.

seanknowsall

Yet another hype and ramp situation... and the biggest culprit is MT...every day in his outlook it is always "cold spell" "sleet/snow" etc... eventually it might/will happen and when it does he will be praised as tIhe best forecaster ever!! Its like me saying " chances of some warm weather in June"....probability will dictate that a warm spell is more likely than not!! I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

TURRICAN

If there is cold on the way,we should look at nature now for clues etc.

wingnut32

seanknowsall wrote: »

Yet another hype and ramp situation... and the biggest culprit is MT...every day in his outlook it is always "cold spell" "sleet/snow" etc... eventually it might/will happen and when it does he will be praised as tIhe best forecaster ever!! Its like me saying " chances of some warm weather in June"....probability will dictate that a warm spell is more likely than not!! I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

Close the door on your way out

WolfeIRE

seanknowsall wrote: »

Yet another hype and ramp situation... and the biggest culprit is MT...every day in his outlook it is always "cold spell" "sleet/snow" etc... eventually it might/will happen and when it does he will be praised as tIhe best forecaster ever!! Its like me saying " chances of some warm weather in June"....probability will dictate that a warm spell is more likely than not!! I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

How is the flower pot Sean?
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76289928&postcount=1229

BEASTERLY

WolfeIRE wrote: »

How is the flower pot Sean?
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=76289928&postcount=1229

But you don't understand....He knows ALL!:eek:

WolfeIRE

To follow up on what Black said, I agree that there is a lot of chopping and changing going to happen in the coming days. Ultimately, the trend is for cold weather to occur towards the end of next week. In FI, it is all about trends and what is noticeable since last night is that the GFS has started trending cold where it wasn't doing so for most of the week gone by. The ecm has downgraded the depth of the cold itself overnight but is still trending same from Thursday into Monday.

The UKMO is going the same way as the ECM so there is lots to play for. Colder weather is very likely at this stage, we are now waiting to determine the longevity and severity of same.

Eastcoastryan

blackius wrote: »

The current state of play is the biggest and usually most reliable medium term model which Eveylyn Cusack showed last night as having us shivering from next weekend has backed down from that prospect to basically more or less what we have now.

The ecm was with 2 of the lesser models the only one ramping up the cold.
The gfs never showed it at all.
However the gfs model beyond 5 days pretty much has shown a different scenario with each of it's 4 daily runs so it's not to be trusted either.


This mornings ecm run's ensembles show no sign of an easterly or cold,I understand.

That kind of flip flopping means simply we don't know whats going to happen.
It's a wait and see.

For cold and snow fans,it must be remembered that just as a few FI cold runs do not show a trend,one or even two mild ones don't either.

I've seen all this before,most regular model readers have...a change to mild in the models and a revert back to cold again and vice versa before they fully resolve what we may have.

So keep tuned.Theres more excitement to come.

Thanks for that Blackius.. the term rollercoaster certainly bounces to mind, I was hoping for at least a few days of wintry weather just to spice things up a little!

yorlum11

seanknowsall wrote: »

Yet another hype and ramp situation... and the biggest culprit is MT...every day in his outlook it is always "cold spell" "sleet/snow" etc... eventually it might/will happen and when it does he will be praised as tIhe best forecaster ever!! Its like me saying " chances of some warm weather in June"....probability will dictate that a warm spell is more likely than not!! I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

Freedom of speech.Its not communism in here.

TURRICAN

seanknowsall wrote: »

Yet another hype and ramp situation... and the biggest culprit is MT...every day in his outlook it is always "cold spell" "sleet/snow" etc... eventually it might/will happen and when it does he will be praised as tIhe best forecaster ever!! Its like me saying " chances of some warm weather in June"....probability will dictate that a warm spell is more likely than not!! I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

Well it is winter.

whataboutnow

First time all season the metoffice has predicted sustained below average temperatures,click on days 6-15 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_weather.html

Irish Steve

wingnut32 wrote: »

Close the door on your way out

and please don't be surprised if it's locked next time you go to come in

Irish Steve

seanknowsall wrote: »

I expect to see this post removed fairly promptly.....

More likely is that your name will now be on a lot more ignore lists than it was before. It's gone on mine

compsys

Irish Steve wrote: »

More likely is that your name will now be on a lot more ignore lists than it was before. It's gone on mine

I think we're being a little bit harsh on the guy. He was only expressing an opinion. Albeit one that could have been expressed slightly better.

I love MT's posts and forecasts and genuinely log on every day to view them. I even have his forecasts linked to the home page of my iPhone for easy access! Sometimes though I do wonder whether his 'outlook' forecasts are just giving us what we want to hear and are perhaps a bit too biased in favour of the cold. Cold always seems to be only a few days away in his winter forecast and this pending cold snap has been forecast for a month now but still seems as far away as ever.

Anyway, I think we're all just getting snow cravings at this stage and are longing to see some of the white stuff and are getting frustrated! I know I am! I hope MT is right and that things cool down significantly next weekend. He seems reasonably confident.

It's been great to see some sun and frost over the past few days though -yesterday morning was the first day this winter I had to use the de-icer on my car before setting off for work. What a change from last year!

seanknowsall

Irish Steve wrote: »

and please don't be surprised if it's locked next time you go to come in

Door has not been locked....wow such an over reaction on your behalf. I expressed an opinion, didnt use any hurtful, politically incorrect langauge so I really do not see what the problem is. You know I find it rather strange in here at times....Met Eireann etc are often slated for their poor forecasting yet its as if MT's forecasts (I respect the guy but I dont worship him) may never be criticised. There is nothing malicious in what I posted, it was a honest expression of my views, which I sure others agree with. I have no problem with someone having different views or to question them, but who are you to warn me to expect to be locked out??