Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Musicman2000

seanknowsall wrote: »

Door has not been locked....wow such an over reaction on your behalf. I expressed an opinion, didnt use any hurtful, politically incorrect langauge so I really do not see what the problem is. You know I find it rather strange in here at times....Met Eireann etc are often slated for their poor forecasting yet its as if MT's forecasts (I respect the guy but I dont worship him) may never be criticised. There is nothing malicious in what I posted, it was a honest expression of my views, which I sure others agree with. I have no problem with someone having different views or to question them, but who are you to warn me to expect to be locked out??

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, MT is a good forecaster, His winter forecast has being fairly bang about the weather getting colder Mid month and what you know? Its getting colder, He never promised anyone a re run of last Dec and I think a lot of people on here were expecting that. Hopefully next weekend will be a white out:D But looking at todays models I dont think its going to happen:(

eyesquirm

Not getting colder in Galway.

derekon

The following view has just been expressed over on the TWO forum today - it struck a chord with me, does it strike one with you?

TWO Quote by Sriram
Why people keep checking the models in trying to kid themselves of a severe wintery that is not going to come - is beyond me - I don't see how people take enjoyment out of seeing an easterly in 8 days time and a stalling low to the south west - the fact is it just does not materialise

What is the fun in seeing severe wintery charts in the future - and the end result is nothing ?

Something rings very true about the above eh? With the ECM already starting to back away from the anticpated cold next week, I think there will be a lot of disappointed people on this forum (including me) :mad:

D

Harps

This place is nowhere near as bad as netweather for that to be fair, the hysteria after that one GFS chart showing an easterly at 240h last week was hilarious!

ECMWF hasn't been showing a severe cold spell all week, just a return to more seasonal weather from the north west with a chance of wintry showers. I haven't really been excited by what its been showing but it'd be nice to see an end to the boredom of the past month. The storm at the start of the month aside there hasn't been a single event worth talking about since mid December.

No major agreement again today so its still a wait and see situation

derekon

Harps wrote: »

This place is nowhere near as bad as netweather for that to be fair, the hysteria after that one GFS chart showing an easterly at 240h last week was hilarious!

ECMWF hasn't been showing a severe cold spell all week, just a return to more seasonal weather from the north west with a chance of wintry showers. I haven't really been excited by what its been showing but it'd be nice to see an end to the boredom of the past month. The storm at the start of the month aside there hasn't been a single event worth talking about since mid December.

No major agreement again today so its still a wait and see situation

Ok fair point Harps!

Do you know what time the 12z GFS and 12z ECM will be released ?

D

Kippure

derekon wrote: »

The following view has just been expressed over on the TWO forum today - it struck a chord with me, does it strike one with you?

TWO Quote by Sriram
Why people keep checking the models in trying to kid themselves of a severe wintery that is not going to come - is beyond me - I don't see how people take enjoyment out of seeing an easterly in 8 days time and a stalling low to the south west - the fact is it just does not materialise

What is the fun in seeing severe wintery charts in the future - and the end result is nothing ?

Something rings very true about the above eh? With the ECM already starting to back away from the anticpated cold next week, I think there will be a lot of disappointed people on this forum (including me) :mad:

D

Dont be down hearted mate. You shall have your snow, endless amounts of it.:eek:

nacho libre

Given what we've had for the past month, i'll gladly take a brief wintry blast next weekend. Despite the differences in the models, they do show a return to colder conditions, but i think it's safe to say there is no sign of a prolonged freeze on any of them. We really need to lose the Azore high and there seems no prospect of us doing so.

derekon

Kippure wrote: »

Dont be down hearted mate. You shall have your snow, endless amounts of it.:eek:

Thank you for the confidence Kippure , appreciate it. I suppose its just that we are now in this transitionary phase from wild Atlantic weather and possibly something colder. However, Ireland's location always makes me nervous in terms of snow......

D

Kippure

derekon wrote: »

Thank you for the confidence Kippure , appreciate it. I suppose its just that we are now in this transitionary phase from wild Atlantic weather and possibly something colder. However, Ireland's location always makes me nervous in terms of snow......

D

Nervous of amounts, me too . To think we are at the same latitude as nothern canada... a warm atlantic ocean and irish sea, theres massive potential for large amounts of snow...:)

blackius

seanknowsall wrote: »

Door has not been locked....wow such an over reaction on your behalf. I expressed an opinion, didnt use any hurtful, politically incorrect langauge so I really do not see what the problem is. You know I find it rather strange in here at times....Met Eireann etc are often slated for their poor forecasting yet its as if MT's forecasts (I respect the guy but I dont worship him) may never be criticised. There is nothing malicious in what I posted, it was a honest expression of my views, which I sure others agree with. I have no problem with someone having different views or to question them, but who are you to warn me to expect to be locked out??

You know,I could go onto the golf forum and give out about people searching for the best game of golf but I don't.
Why do you seek to taunt weather enthusiasts whose only crime is the search for exciting weather as opposed to bland.
They examine it here,learn and are obviously disappointed if the exciting prospects don't materialise.

What trouble is that giving you?
I suggest you look in at yourself if all you have to do is rant about other peoples hobbies.


Regarding MT,his 4 day forecasts are pretty accurate,his 24hr ones are very accurate usually.
The rest of his input here is similar to most others and that is a search for exciting weather and analysis.
In winter,thats a search for snow.
If that is making you lose sleep,try the personal issues forum,someone there may be able to help you.
But be carefull because like here,if you go there ranting and seemingly deliberately trolling,you might be banned.

derekon

blackius wrote: »

You know,I could go onto the golf forum and give out about people searching for the best game of golf but I don't.
Why do you seek to taunt weather enthusiasts whose only crime is the search for exciting weather as opposed to bland.
They examine it here,learn and are obviously disappointed if the exciting prospects don't materialise.

What trouble is that giving you?
I suggest you look in at yourself if all you have to do is rant about other peoples hobbies.


Regarding MT,his 4 day forecasts are pretty accurate,his 24hr ones are very accurate usually.
The rest of his input here is similar to most others and that is a search for exciting weather and analysis.
In winter,thats a search for snow.
If that is making you lose sleep,try the personal issues forum,someone there may be able to help you.
But be carefull because like here,if you go there ranting and seemingly deliberately trolling,you might be banned.

Liking your style Blackius, liking your style

D

vicwatson

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, MT is a good forecaster, His winter forecast has being fairly bang about the weather getting colder Mid month and what you know? Its getting colder, He never promised anyone a re run of last Dec and I think a lot of people on here were expecting that. Hopefully next weekend will be a white out:D But looking at todays models I dont think its going to happen:(

Did you not know that poor aul MT is wholly responsible for the creation of the weather we get, he doesn't just forecast it you know, he actually makes the weather too :D:D (Some snow next weekend Please MT to keep everyone calm and happy):pac:

nacho libre

blackius wrote: »

r.

I've seen all this before,most regular model readers have...a change to mild in the models and a revert back to cold again and vice versa before they fully resolve what we may have.

.

Yes. We've seen this before. Although my main concern is the UK met office update, which have been fairly spot on this year in their updates, indicates no sign of a blocked pattern in their extended outlook, just what might be termed more seasonal weather at times in the north and north west of Ireland. Certainly nothing to suggest widespread snow, unless we are lucky enough to get a polar low(might that be enough to get su campu back:) ) in a brief northerly blast

You'll recall last year they were bullish in early November 2010 of well below average temperatures taking hold and being sustained.
Their forecasts according to what i've read over on netweather, do factor in what happens in the stratosphere. So it would seem they are not confident of a blocking pattern being maintained in the Northern Hemisphere. The experts over on netweather are not confident either it would seem.

nacho libre

vicwatson wrote: »

Did you not know that poor aul MT is wholly responsible for the creation of the weather we get, he doesn't just forecast it you know, he actually makes the weather too :D:D (Some snow next weekend Please MT to keep everyone calm and happy):pac:

With this in mind I recall a poster a couple of years ago haranguing him for the snowstorm he promised not happening. It's funny how these posters only seem to appear briefly in the forum, then are nowhere to be seen for most of year.

Musicman2000

UKMO supporting the ECm @144hrs and the GFS is still on its own.

UKMO



ECM

vicwatson

nacho libre wrote: »

With this in mind I recall a poster a couple of years ago haranguing him for the snowstorm he promised not happening. It's funny how these posters only seem to appear briefly in the forum, then are nowhere to be seen for most of year.

Ha. Crazy stuff. If only MT could control the weather;) :cool:

jimmy.d

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x9qpf8_troll-playing-golf_people

seanknowsall wrote: »

Door has not been locked....wow such an over reaction on your behalf. I expressed an opinion, didnt use any hurtful, politically incorrect langauge so I really do not see what the problem is. You know I find it rather strange in here at times....Met Eireann etc are often slated for their poor forecasting yet its as if MT's forecasts (I respect the guy but I dont worship him) may never be criticised. There is nothing malicious in what I posted, it was a honest expression of my views, which I sure others agree with. I have no problem with someone having different views or to question them, but who are you to warn me to expect to be locked out??

TheMilkyPirate

UKMO comes into line with the ECM, A great run and a very very good sign for cold if the UKMO is on board.

12z GFS still flat as a pancake, The saga continues.....

Eastcoastryan

Just saw on Twitter that the latest UKMO is very encouraging for cold lovers and now GFS is totally out on its own, any truth in this??


Just saw Baraca's post above.. looks like its true.

Harps

Yeah a nice UKMO run this evening with a NW toppler from 120h, GFS still not playing ball but with ECM & UKMO, considered the two most accurate models both in agreement, the money has to be on GFS falling into line. GEM incidentally is a half way house between the two so still no definite agreement.

Onwards to the 12z ECMWF then!

whataboutnow

never seen this before in my life ha
met.ie don't have a clue what's going to happen read their outlook
http://www.met.ie/forecasts/

hotwhiskey

UKMO +144 12z



ECM +144 06z



NOGAPS +144 12z




GFS +144 12z




GFS model out on its own not bringing in cold weather until further out into fi.

I think myself the GFS is bringing the low depression to quickly across the Atlantic not giving time for the ridge of high pressure to develope mid Atlantic which gives the time for the cold to plundge in.

Redsunset

Well another way to look at it,
What if ECM falls in line with GFS (WORSE CASE SCENARIO)
Or a blend of the two could be more realistic.

Villain

In my expierence the result is usually some where in between the two which would wouldn't be good for snow lovers.

hotwhiskey

redsunset wrote: »

Well another way to look at it,
What if ECM falls in line with GFS (WORSE CASE SCENARIO)
Or a blend of the two could be more realistic.

Well Redsunset if ECM falls in line with GFS the UKMO would have to fallow suite after it going towards the ECM this evening it would have done a full circle. ECM will be interesting this evening. But yes! you a right middle ground might be the final outcome.

cherryghost

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Well Redsunset if ECM falls in line with GFS the UKMO would have to fallow suite after it going towards the ECM this evening it would have done a full circle. ECM will be interesting this evening. But yes! you a right middle ground might be the final outcome.

In the long term the ECM is usually more reliable. When it comes to Tuesday or so we might see a huge shift in the GFS ensemble. It may not show an identical outcome as the ECM but might be a little closer to it.

jirafa

Major update: Rest of January and early February 14/1/12
From: WeatherSchool | Jan 14, 2012



Link.............. http://youtu.be/pAkVjax50jQ


Hope Simon is wrong, but will he be.? thats question I guess.


:(:(:(:confused

esposito

Personally, I wouldn't take too much notice of that. Nobody knows, theres just too much confusion at the moment.

derekon

jirafa wrote: »

Major update: Rest of January and early February 14/1/12
From: WeatherSchool | Jan 14, 2012



Link.............. http://youtu.be/pAkVjax50jQ


Hope Simon is wrong, but will he be.? thats question I guess.


:(:(:(:confused

Why is it every time I read your posts Jirafa, its bad news in terms of snow? :D:D

D

jirafa

derekon wrote: »

Why is it every time I read your posts Jirafa, its bad news in terms of snow? :D:D

D

Believe me, derekon, I want snow as much as most others do, but " Don't shoot me, I am only the messenger" and not my views.Hopefully in time,I will find a forecast,that is positive for a good snowy outlook...:D:D:D;);):p:p