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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

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    #692
    Kippure
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,186 ✭✭✭Kippure


    Whats the story with the ECM, bit late to start.?


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    #693
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    No Kipp. Up to 120hrs now and showing pretty much identical results to UKMO. Looking good. Still find it difficult to understand the discrepancies between the GFS and ECM at 96-120hrs. A very complex scenario for these computers obviously.


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    #694
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    GFS and ECM diverge at 120hrs in the 12z updates.


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    #695
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    jirafa wrote: »
    Believe me, derekon, I want snow as much as most others do, but " Don't shoot me, I am only the messenger" and not my views.Hopefully in time,I will find a forecast,that is positive for a good snowy outlook...:D:D:D;);):p:p

    Sorry messenger :) I understand you are only conveying the information. I wait in hope for the day you confirm a source quoting snow is on the way!

    D


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    #696
    derekon
    Registered Users Posts: 836 ✭✭✭derekon


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    GFS and ECM diverge at 120hrs in the 12z updates.

    Hi Beasterly, the 12z ECM just out now seems to have dropped the -8 uppper temps for next weekend and replaced them with lower -4 temps. The latter would not be cold enough for snow would they?

    D


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    #697
    mcriot29
    Registered Users Posts: 386 ✭✭mcriot29


    esposito wrote: »
    Personally, I wouldn't take too much notice of that. Nobody knows, theres just too much confusion at the moment.
    With the ao going back upand nao it wont be cold really there maybe some cold , around 20th till 24th then mild again irish met have backtracked on any reall cold next weekend , im afriad unless ao dips and stays low with nao cold air wil never reach ireland
    Feb best chance


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    #698
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    derekon wrote: »
    Hi Beasterly, the 12z ECM just out now seems to have dropped the -8 uppper temps for next weekend and replaced them with lower -4 temps. The latter would not be cold enough for snow would they?

    D

    On the website im looking at doesn't have next weekend out for the 12z yet. Are you sure you're not talking about the 0z? But no, it would not be cold enough for snow :(


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    #699
    Musicman2000
    Registered Users Posts: 1,461 ✭✭✭Musicman2000


    ECM 12Z goes down hill after 144hrs :mad: BUT signs of an easterly brewing on FI.


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    #700
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭jirafa


    John Holmes who has his own weather site, is someone,who I have great respect for, as far as charts/models readers go.I think he gives a clear understanding of what may happen.He is also a respected member of the netweather forum.
    One can check out his forecast from the end of Jan up to mid Feb on the link below.


    Link............. http://www.johnholmes-weather.co.uk/forecast.php


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    #701
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    mcriot29 wrote: »
    With the ao going back upand nao it wont be cold really there maybe some cold , around 20th till 24th then mild again irish met have backtracked on any reall cold next weekend , im afriad unless ao dips and stays low with nao cold air wil never reach ireland
    Feb best chance

    Does the AO not correlate to wind directions around the Arctic and the NAO to sea level pressure in the atlantic to up towards greenland ?

    Cold air can still get here but may come in from a westerly direction .


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    #702
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    pistolpetes11 wrote: »
    Cold air can still get here but may come in from a westerly direction .

    And it is ALWAYS sh1te, look back at December!


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    #703
    BEASTERLY
    Registered Users Posts: 1,789 ✭✭✭BEASTERLY


    ECM has shifted everything a few hundred miles to the East leaving us in the middle, ah well, maybe in 2012/13...


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    #704
    faktisperminute
    Registered Users Posts: 139 ✭✭faktisperminute


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    ECM has shifted everything a few hundred miles to the East leaving us in the middle, ah well, maybe in 2012/13...

    wait for the blizzard don't worry its coming next week :D


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    #705
    Villain
    Registered Users Posts: 15,944 ✭✭✭✭Villain


    Umm 12z ECM has gone the wrong way, only one run mind you and plenty of time to change but with the GFS sticking to its guns so it could well be the ECM that falls in line.


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    #706
    WolfeIRE
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,667 ✭✭✭WolfeIRE


    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    ECM has shifted everything a few hundred miles to the East leaving us in the middle, ah well, maybe in 2012/13...
    There is a lot of changing going on at present, Beasterly. I wouldn't lose hope yet. The position of that high over the Azores is key. It is located closer to us in the last two runs, hence the cold shifting east. If that high pushes further nw or w, we will be in a better position. The overriding trend at present is cold weather i.e. temps colder than average for the time of year.

    As of now, the models are predominantly indicating cold but not snowy weather. The GEFS is sticking to its guns out to 144hrs but after this it too is trending cold where it wasn't doing so 24 hours ago. A convergence of models somewhat, as Villain stated earlier. Expect plenty of more changes.


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    #707
    yorlum11
    Registered Users Posts: 342 ✭✭yorlum11


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    BEASTERLY wrote: »
    ECM has shifted everything a few hundred miles to the East leaving us in the middle, ah well, maybe in 2012/13...
    There is a lot of changing going on at present, Beasterly. I wouldn't lose hope yet. The position of that high over the Azores is key. It is located closer to us in the last two runs, hence the cold shifting east. If that high pushes further nw or w, we will be in a better position. The overriding trend at present is cold weather i.e. temps colder than average for the time of year.

    As of now, the models are predominantly indicating cold but not snowy weather. The GEFS is sticking to its guns out to 144hrs but after this it too is trending cold where it wasn't doing so 24 hours ago. A convergence of models somewhat, as Villain stated earlier. Expect plenty of more changes.
    Well weighed up Wolf


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    #708
    blackius
    Closed Accounts Posts: 469 ✭✭blackius


    WolfeIRE wrote: »
    There is a lot of changing going on at present, Beasterly. I wouldn't lose hope yet. The position of that high over the Azores is key. It is located closer to us in the last two runs, hence the cold shifting east. If that high pushes further nw or w, we will be in a better position. The overriding trend at present is cold weather i.e. temps colder than average for the time of year.

    As of now, the models are predominantly indicating cold but not snowy weather. The GEFS is sticking to its guns out to 144hrs but after this it too is trending cold where it wasn't doing so 24 hours ago. A convergence of models somewhat, as Villain stated earlier. Expect plenty of more changes.
    The trouble is they are not trending cold enough which is made worse by the fact that even this not cold enough stuff is watered down and stubbornly not wanting to leave FI.

    I'm not discouraged but I'm not encouraged either.


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    #709
    Sponge Bob
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 25,234 ✭✭✭✭Sponge Bob


    blackius wrote: »
    I'm not discouraged but I'm not encouraged either.
    The pesky models had better get into alignment or I will ask for a thread downgrade to:

    "Possible Cold Spell (Chat Thread) Mid-Late January "

    :cool:


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    #710
    beco
    Registered Users Posts: 60 ✭✭beco


    That's right Gerry - deny all knowledge!!!


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    #711
    pauldry
    Registered Users Posts: 7,047 ✭✭✭pauldry


    when he came on I turned the channel

    was looking forward to EC:mad:


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    #712
    Eastcoastryan
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 197 ✭✭Eastcoastryan


    Looks like GFS in coming more in line with ECM tonight.. I'm sure someone on here with more knowledge will be able to give more info.


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    #713
    pistolpetes11
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 7,146 Mod ✭✭✭✭pistolpetes11


    Some body better have turned off the lights on the way out !

    Seems everyone is gone , like the hopes of the cold blast at the moment ,

    Well thats at least until the next model run ;)


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    #714
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    18z better but still far off the ecm and ukmo


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    #715
    Iancar29
    Registered Users Posts: 5,068 ✭✭✭Iancar29


    baraca wrote: »
    18z better but still far off the ecm and ukmo

    I agree, the GFS has the azores high closer to us giving just relative cooler conditions , ECM has a " AZORES Barrier " up right on the Kerry coast ! :rolleyes: , thus giving a better chance of more colder conditions at +144hrs.

    The polar vortex still not budging much either though.


    Right im not disappointed with that as theres no big downgrade, but not REAL happy either as the GFS still aint wanna go play kick about with the ECM and UKMO ... :rolleyes:

    Off to bed , up for work at 5, night all!


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    #716
    boatbuilder
    Registered Users Posts: 624 ✭✭✭boatbuilder


    Looks like the 20 snow sledges I made will have to go into storage until next winter! :mad:


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    #717
    davidsr20
    Registered Users Posts: 769 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    boatbuilder wrote: »
    Looks like the 20 snow sledges I made will have to go into storage until next winter! :mad:

    Is it really that bad? Why all the big hype the last month :mad:


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    #718
    Rebelbrowser
    Registered Users Posts: 3,158 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser


    Not sure what all the depression is about. Its very much on as things stand tonight......


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    #719
    Trotter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,362 ✭✭✭Trotter


    Looking at those charts I can put away the bobble hat for the snowy weather here in Waterford anyway.

    Back to the rain jacket for our standard muggy cloudy damp non weather weather.


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    #720
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 6,009 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    Rebelbrowser wrote: »
    Not sure what all the depression is about. Its very much on as things stand tonight......

    Neither am I, Whatever happens with this situation we have at the moment, we will have more chances and I still feel February will be the coldest month of winter.


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    #721
    jirafa
    Registered Users Posts: 2,418 ✭✭✭jirafa


    LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: The cold is coming whether you like it or not!
    From Mark Vogan


    Video Link........................ http://youtu.be/sr_t63w1rwM


    Quick..Quick...everybody back in, all isnt lost, if you believe Mark.

    ;););););););):P:P:P:cool::cool:;););)


This discussion has been closed.
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