Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

bb1234567

If this cold spell doesnt materialise I will have given up completely on this winter, itll be to late by start of feb for a cold snap to begin if it hasnt even begun yet...and then after this depressing winter has ended I will start to look forward to next winter which I know will be very cold ;)well I hope it will anyway:) I just feel like itll be a really bad winter but then again I thought this winter was going to be bad too so maybe Ive jinxed next winter already too:eek:

TheMilkyPirate

bb1234567 wrote: »

If this cold spell doesnt materialise I will have given up completely on this winter, itll be to late by start of feb for a cold snap to begin if it hasnt even begun yet...and then after this depressing winter has ended I will start to look forward to next winter which I know will be very cold ;)well I hope it will anyway:) I just feel like itll be a really bad winter but then again I thought this winter was going to be bad too so maybe Ive jinxed next winter already too:eek:

February 1947?

dexter647

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Not sure what all the depression is about. Its very much on as things stand tonight......

+1... A bit to early to give up hope. The one thing I have learned about the models this year is that past 5 days they are so unreliable and in some cases, like for example last January, past 3 days.Only last month, if my memory serves me right, we were on a Monday expecting the storm of the century but alas it never really materialised come that Friday and in that case nearly all the models were in agreement:mad:...

So keep the chin up lads.... and it would not surprise me in the least if this place was not buzzing 24 hrs from now:)

CricketDude

baraca wrote: »

Neither am I, Whatever happens with this situation we have at the moment, we will have more chances and I still feel February will be the coldest month of winter.

That wouldnt be hard to achieve.

boatbuilder

dexter647 wrote: »

+1... A bit to early to give up hope. The one thing I have learned about the models this year is that past 5 days they are so unreliable and in some cases, like for example last January, past 3 days.Only last month, if my memory serves me right, we were on a Monday expecting the storm of the century but alas it never really materialised come that Friday and in that case nearly all the models were in agreement:mad:...

So keep the chin up lads.... and it would not surprise me in the least if this place was not buzzing 24 hrs from now:)

Thanks for the ray of hope! Back to varnishing my snow sledges then...:)

CricketDude

I have been getting up to go to work at around 6am for 20 years.
In all that time, if you exclude the last 2 freak winters, i have rarely seen snow, never mind snow that sticks.
I have rarely seen the road icy in the morning and not be thawed out a few hours later.
I have rarely seen a frost stay all day.
The chances of even having snow that sticks in any single year are very, very slim.
Over 20 years you could probably on one hand the days that snow sticks.
And probably on two hands you would count the number of times snow falls.
We just dont have a cold climate.
If you want to increase your chances of snow, you need to live in the mountains.

doccy

baraca wrote: »

February 1947?

Umm February 1947 is not really a good example. I don't think we're going to get a winter of that magnitude, and it definitely wasn't as mild as this one. But the charts really aren't that bad, cold is coming at last. I honestly reckon this Winter will have a kick in its tail.

200motels

I think it's over lads, no major cold spell this winter, and I still can't believe M.E on Friday having charts for next weekend with sub zero temps, it'll be more like 14c next weekend.

TheMilkyPirate

doccy wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

February 1947?

Umm February 1947 is not really a good example. I don't think we're going to get a winter of that magnitude, and it definitely wasn't as mild as this one. But the charts really aren't that bad, cold is coming at last. I honestly reckon this Winter will have a kick in its tail.

I was referring to the point bb made that February was to late for a cold snap. Its not.

I never said this February was going to be like 47.

pistolpetes11

200motels wrote: »

I think it's over lads, no major cold spell this winter, and I still can't believe M.E on Friday having charts for next weekend with sub zero temps, it'll be more like 14c next weekend.

14C

Charts or GTFO !

Elmer Blooker

14c next weekend is probably pushing it a bit. 13c maybe?:rolleyes:

pistolpetes11

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

14c next weekend is probably pushing it a bit. 13c maybe?:rolleyes:

Or Maybe not , Tis stil all up in the air

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nacho libre

What the models with better verification stats show is a potential 24-48 hour cold spell, with the possibility of sleet or snow at times lower down in the north and west. It's not the best, but after the dreadful winter so far, i'd be happy just to see a light dusting of snow again at night.


By the way who ever said the month of February is too late for a cold spell is mistaken.

delw

bit of this going on here people,winter aint over yet

nacho libre

delw wrote: »

bit of this going on here people,winter aint over yet

ah it is delw. it is all over. wah! wah!


but seriously, that's the point i was trying to make - February has often been the month in years gone by where we have had our biggest snowfalls in Ireland(the previous two years being the notable exceptions). So it really is a falsehood to suggest February is too late for cold and snow.

cherryghost

As drunk as I may be, can we keep things civil instead of trying to drag this into a pre-adoelescent nit-pick?

Regardless of charts, both seem set for some heavy wintry showers next weekend, its one thing they can agree on!

seanknowsall

OK so the outlook doesnt appear to be anyway near as cold as expected and my hunch is that as the week progresses all the models will show a rapid downgrade.... disappointing yes but far to early to write the winter off yet. Thinking back over the last 20 years I can remember some worthwhile snow events in Sligo in Feb, March, April and May...yes May!! March 1995 brought a number of days of heavy snow to the west in particular, I can remember seeing drifting snow in fields then. First week in May 1997 brought a very cold blast with heavy snow showers leaving a few cms of snow...ok nothing spectacular but the fact it was May made it remarkable. Then there was an April, 1998/1999? I think that brought a few cold days again with some lying snow (the only snow to lie around here that "Winter"!!). Going further back in weather history March and April snowstorms have often been severe... April 1917....ok I guess with the lengthening days of March and April the temps are never very low but once it below 3 or 4 snow can and does lie in the right conditions. So lets not get all to depressed yet.... we still have 3 months of potential snow producing weather left.....

delw

nacho libre wrote: »

ah it is delw. it is all over. wah! wah!


but seriously, that's the point i was trying to make - February has often been the month in years gone by where we have had our biggest snowfalls in Ireland(the previous two years being the notable exceptions). So it really is a falsehood to suggest February is too late for cold and snow.

ah here nacho,people have already convinced themselves winter is over & you go & try to get their hopes up with statements like that,shame on you :D

Sponge Bob

This thread is about January and Nacho Libre is correct.

Will MT have to invoke the "Mercy Rule" in the Forecast Competition ???

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

14c next weekend is probably pushing it a bit. 13c maybe?

Course there are always those who want to listen to Mark "White Christmas" Vogan , even in Mid June. I don't know what the cure is TBH.

Rebelbrowser

From other websites situation seems to be that next weekend will not be remarkable just a bit on cold side. I further understand though that the set up could allow serious upgrades without much changing. Also the set up has real potential for the next three weeks or so. overall disappointing right now but you'd never know...

garyha

Charts are awful this morning, downgrades all round

Min

The good news is Evelyn was doing the weather this morning at 7:55am on the radio, she said there will be nothing extreme this week.

blackius

You must have been asleep min because that was jean byrne not Eveyln!

As regards severe cold weather,nothing now untill february methinks.

Min

blackius wrote: »

You must have been asleep min because that was jean byrne not Eveyln!

As regards severe cold weather,nothing now untill february methinks.

I was driving, so I can blame my concentration on the road :pac:

DOCARCH

Yip, it was Jean Byrne. I hope Gerry isn't doing the farming forecast today!

Elmer Blooker

DOCARCH wrote: »

I hope Gerry isn't doing the farming forecast today!

I suppose its up to me to break the bad news, someone has to do it!
He said after last night's forecast - "join me for the farming forecast tomorrow"

200motels

I'm not looking forward to his forecast today with his mild muck, I hate mild weather at this time of year and he'll be loving it.

Redsunset

Hate to say it but it really does look like January is



February

glimmerman123

True to form Gerry just put the final nail in the coffin for next weekends predicted cold spell which Evelyn mentioned yesterday. Temps between eight and 10 next weekend. Winter on it's last legs i think.

Wild Bill

Wow - whatever about the weather the mood here has turned a bit gloomy since my last visit.

Did someone die :rolleyes:?

Can I point out that here on the east coast (at least) February is about equal to January for snowy weather and way ahead of December.