Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Icanseethewind

I see the predicted cold spell is not coming now... I wasnt expecting it to. I now solely going on nature's signs and I can tell you there will be no snow this winter or spring. The mildness has won out and will continue to do so. Found more frog spawn earlier and its in the middle of the drain... I firmly believe thats a sign of warmth, a dry spring and a good summer. I have observed the frog spawn for over 50 years and I can tell you that in about 90% of cases its a reliable indicator. A neighbour who is a fisherman tells me that he has noticed that the seals are spending alot of time sitting out on the rocks...they are not hungry so are relaxing. This is apparently a sure sign that the spring will not be severe

Gonzo

glimmerman123 wrote: »

True to form Gerry just put the final nail in the coffin for next weekends predicted cold spell which Evelyn mentioned yesterday. Temps between eight and 10 next weekend. Winter on it's last legs i think.

yeah at this stage now we've seen the cold pushed back by nearly 2 weeks, still hopefull something good will happen but the timeframe is starting to narrow now. We only have 5 to 6 weeks of proper winter left before things start to warm up in relatively in March, however March has seen some great snow in the past but it doesnt stick around for long once February is over. It's starting to look like January/February of last year when the cold kept getting pushed back staying in FI all the time. So far it looks like the Donegal Postman was correct with his predictions of a mild boring uneventfull winter because that's all we've really seen so far.

bb1234567

Icanseethewind wrote: »

I see the predicted cold spell is not coming now... I wasnt expecting it to. I now solely going on nature's signs and I can tell you there will be no snow this winter or spring. The mildness has won out and will continue to do so. Found more frog spawn earlier and its in the middle of the drain... I firmly believe thats a sign of warmth, a dry spring and a good summer. I have observed the frog spawn for over 50 years and I can tell you that in about 90% of cases its a reliable indicator. A neighbour who is a fisherman tells me that he has noticed that the seals are spending alot of time sitting out on the rocks...they are not hungry so are relaxing. This is apparently a sure sign that the spring will not be severe

ok youre forecast is the final nail in the coffin for this winter for me anyway, atleast we might get a good summer anyway. I know its far away but you seem to have a lot of experience,any idea what next winter will be like?

cherryghost

Oh hai!



Clutching at straws here but ya never know.

Musicman2000

Enderman wrote: »

Oh hai!



Clutching at straws here but ya never know.

Wouldnt be much, Crap upper temps maybe a bit of snow on high ground

glimmerman123

Looks like any cold spell will be short and sweet. The mild air is never too far from our shores. I'm after saving a fortune on timber and coal so far this winter but having said that i still would have liked to have seen some cold snowy days. Ah well there is always next Winter.

howlinwolf

personally speaking im glad it looks like were stayin in the mild setup, admititly its a little borin but theres nothing worse than havin to scrap hard frost of the car at the crack of dawn and then drive like a bag of nerves to work on the ice waitin for the car do slide across the road.... i got enough of that in the last two winters to last a life time...if i had a few weeks off work id love it to bucket down with snow though but sadly i havent got a few weeks off work to look forward to:(

glimmerman123

I remember growing up in the 1970s when you would see plenty of snow in the Winter and nice sunny warm days for most of Summer. Now the seasons have gone haywire. How things have changed.

jirafa

redsunset wrote: »

Hate to say it but it really does look like January is



February

Not so quick bud,,,if Simon is correct..maybe and I say maybe,, a chance of a few showers of snow,towards the end of Jan...:D:D;);)


The week ahead
From: Simon Keeling of Weather School's Channel Jan 15,



Video Link ................ http://youtu.be/Jj4PUn6JINs

Icanseethewind

bb1234567 wrote: »

ok youre forecast is the final nail in the coffin for this winter for me anyway, atleast we might get a good summer anyway. I know its far away but you seem to have a lot of experience,any idea what next winter will be like?

Its impossible to see beyond the next season when using nature so I cant work out next winter yet....but what I can say is that in my humble yet well thought out opinion we are in for a seriously hot summer.... you read it hear first!!;) ..... more updates over next few weeks!!

darkman2

Folks,

The pessimism is not valid IMO. I think many are making the common mistake of taking the charts at face value at rediculous time periods beyond 120hrs. These are deterministic forecasts. The models if you like are solving a
problem from a current state of factual readings from around the world and inputing these into complex algorithms to make a prediction and come up with a solution. Every second more one looks into the proposed future on the
models the error count multiplies due to the insane number of variables that have to be accounted for. Every chart has errors at 6hrs out. None of them can be 100% accurate. But they are important for establishing trends and the
trend I see is actually very good. We are moving away from the zonal pattern that's devoured most of the Winter so far with the exception of the odd incursion of wintry weather. I think that will change from the middle of this
week. I don't think it will be "odd" incursions from now on and it would not take much change at all among all the models for something pretty spectacular to occur synoptically.

I think you have to look at it on the basis of where we are coming from. Zonal weather pattern (high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north) is extremely difficult to shift and does last for weeks and sometimes months.

We got unlucky for the first part of the Winter - a prolonged cold period of weather was never on with the state of the Polar Vortex and a rampant Jet Stream.

But now things have changed. The teleconnections (AO and NAO) have improved, the polar vortex has weakened and split and we have seen pressure rises disrupting the zonality in parts on the Northern hemisphere in the last week or more. This trend is forecast to continue and maybe even escalate. We just have to end up in the right posistion to benefit from ejections of cold air from the poles. We have already seen this over Eastern Europe. The polar air in that region looks like hanging around and we could concievably tap that over the next week or two or alternatively we may see North or Northwesterlies.


My own opinion is we will tap that cold pool to the East before the end of January after initial North or Northwesterly flows of air. I think the trough will dig down into the mediterranean as the ECM was suggesting over
the last few days but a little later. I think overall that trend is still there but it's a slow old process.

Meanwhile I suspect next weekend is not as clear cut as many think. There is a real risk of bitterly cold North or Northwesterlies becoming established. It's not really showing on the models right now, true. But not alot has to
change to put us in a very good posistion.


So i'd say turning colder during the second half of the coming week through the weekend and potentially much colder the week after. Watch this space. All may not be as it seems!

davidsr20

How was this got so wrong guys?

pistolpetes11

davidsr20 wrote: »

How was this got so wrong guys?

It wasnt , you can only really go on what the models show

eyesquirm

darkman2 wrote: »

Folks,

The pessimism is not valid IMO. I think many are making the common mistake of taking the charts at face value at rediculous time periods beyond 120hrs. These are deterministic forecasts. The models if you like are solving a
problem from a current state of factual readings from around the world and inputing these into complex algorithms to make a prediction and come up with a solution. Every second more one looks into the proposed future on the
models the error count multiplies due to the insane number of variables that have to be accounted for. Every chart has errors at 6hrs out. None of them can be 100% accurate. But they are important for establishing trends and the
trend I see is actually very good. We are moving away from the zonal pattern that's devoured most of the Winter so far with the exception of the odd incursion of wintry weather. I think that will change from the middle of this
week. I don't think it will be "odd" incursions from now on and it would not take much change at all among all the models for something pretty spectacular to occur synoptically.

I think you have to look at it on the basis of where we are coming from. Zonal weather pattern (high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north) is extremely difficult to shift and does last for weeks and sometimes months.

We got unlucky for the first part of the Winter - a prolonged cold period of weather was never on with the state of the Polar Vortex and a rampant Jet Stream.

But now things have changed. The teleconnections (AO and NAO) have improved, the polar vortex has weakened and split and we have seen pressure rises disrupting the zonality in parts on the Northern hemisphere in the last week or more. This trend is forecast to continue and maybe even escalate. We just have to end up in the right posistion to benefit from ejections of cold air from the poles. We have already seen this over Eastern Europe. The polar air in that region looks like hanging around and we could concievably tap that over the next week or two or alternatively we may see North or Northwesterlies.


My own opinion is we will tap that cold pool to the East before the end of January after initial North or Northwesterly flows of air. I think the trough will dig down into the mediterranean as the ECM was suggesting over
the last few days but a little later. I think overall that trend is still there but it's a slow old process.

Meanwhile I suspect next weekend is not as clear cut as many think. There is a real risk of bitterly cold North or Northwesterlies becoming established. It's not really showing on the models right now, true. But not alot has to
change to put us in a very good posistion.


So i'd say turning colder during the second half of the coming week through the weekend and potentially much colder the week after. Watch this space. All may not be as it seems!

Well said Evelyn!

Sponge Bob

It wasn't 'got wrong'. There was enough support for a speculative outbreak starting from when Wolfie got the thread going in the first place. Support waxed and waned since.

nacho libre

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lIrwH9QXEV4

The country track forecast isn't that bad for Friday next. Considering how the winter has gone so far, i won't turn my nose up at a fleeting glimpse of the white stuff. It maybe downgraded or upgraded in the days ahead, but at least as Darkman says we have grounds for optimism with the NH profile changing. So no need to raise the white flag yet.

cherryghost

I'll wait til Thursday until I give in

redsteveireland

davidsr20 wrote: »

How was this got so wrong guys?

You have been around here too long to ask that kind of question.

TURRICAN

glimmerman123 wrote: »

I remember growing up in the 1970s when you would see plenty of snow in the Winter and nice sunny warm days for most of Summer. Now the seasons have gone haywire. How things have changed.

So true. Seasons are so out of sync. Wonder will they come back around again properly.

cherryghost

12Z rolling out now. Seems the deep low above Iceland has moved down almost 200 miles south-eastwards as opposed to the last run!

6z


12z at the identical timeframe

TheMilkyPirate

12z looking very good so far

davidsr20

baraca wrote: »

12z looking very good so far

This is my point some say looking good and next saying big downgrade :rolleyes:

TheMilkyPirate

davidsr20 wrote: »

baraca wrote: »

12z looking very good so far

This is my point some say looking good and next saying big downgrade :rolleyes:

The 12z is nothing special in its own right, But its a huge improvement over recent gfs runs, More amplification towards Greenland and more in line with the euros at 120h.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Trying to build heights to our north east in FI too !

Musicman2000

Lot of silly comments in here writing off winter, Its early days yet folks things could change very easily and the strat warming has a lag effect and is still filtering threw.

Bishop_Donal

I am normally just a daily lurker on this thread, but for what it's worth:

Two points:

If I am not mistaken, typical Irish winters only get started at this stage of the year? It seems that because we had two 'unusual' years where we got a lot of action before Christmas, that there is an assumption that this is the way winter will happen forever more. I still believe we will get a hard belt of cold weather before this year is out.

Second point, the dismay because a few runs were not favourable leaves me bewildered! If the runs turn negative for a little while, they surely can easily turn positive again. It seems the pessimists / glass half empty people prevail around here.

Finally (and not related to either of my deeply scientific points), it has to be noted that the birds did eat all those holly berries at the start of the year. Have they all become opportunist thieves???? I don't think so (unless I hear they were pinching onions in Tesco as well) - there still is a spell of punishing cold, ice, blowing snow & pebble dashing graupel to come. Mark me down, I feel it in my waters!!!!

Redsunset

Bit over the top Musicman, I don't see posts writing off the winter.
Actually Nature man is but hey every one to their own
Yes the Strat warm has a lag but it is already influencing matters. There is never any guarantee we will see any significant cold spell from it either. Jan doesn't look like throwing at us anything special so Feb is another month. Yes it will get seasonal but nothing to write home about yet until the set up improves

RickRoll

Thank God it will be mild for the rest of winter, I work outside so it's not nice when its below freezing.

Musicman2000

redsunset wrote: »

Bit over the top Musicman, I don't see posts writing off the winter.
Actually Nature man is but hey every one to their own
Yes the Strat warm has a lag but it is already influencing matters. There is never any guarantee we will see any significant cold spell from it either. Jan doesn't look like throwing at us anything special so Feb is another month. Yes it will get seasonal but nothing to write home about yet until the set up improves

Dont think it is over the top, If you read back on the previous few pages you will see what I mean, No argument there isnt a guarntee as we could be on the wrong side of a block, I really thing we will get a least one decent cold blast in Feb either an Easterly or North Easterly. Time will tell:)

Redsunset

Yes I suppose, peoples frustration at not seeing the sacred white stuff heightens anxiety.:)

It's because we(Most of us) have been spoilt of late and now its almost expected to be severe cold every winter. Not going to happen.
Without killing too much joy, we might not see anything like it again for another 10/20 years,and sadly that is the reality.

In saying all that,in the current situation it really would not take a whole lot of change to bring us a lot of bitter cold. All we can do is model watch and find the clues.