Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

bb1234567

darkman2 wrote: »

Folks,

The pessimism is not valid IMO. I think many are making the common mistake of taking the charts at face value at rediculous time periods beyond 120hrs. These are deterministic forecasts. The models if you like are solving a
problem from a current state of factual readings from around the world and inputing these into complex algorithms to make a prediction and come up with a solution. Every second more one looks into the proposed future on the
models the error count multiplies due to the insane number of variables that have to be accounted for. Every chart has errors at 6hrs out. None of them can be 100% accurate. But they are important for establishing trends and the
trend I see is actually very good. We are moving away from the zonal pattern that's devoured most of the Winter so far with the exception of the odd incursion of wintry weather. I think that will change from the middle of this
week. I don't think it will be "odd" incursions from now on and it would not take much change at all among all the models for something pretty spectacular to occur synoptically.

I think you have to look at it on the basis of where we are coming from. Zonal weather pattern (high pressure to the south, low pressure to the north) is extremely difficult to shift and does last for weeks and sometimes months.

We got unlucky for the first part of the Winter - a prolonged cold period of weather was never on with the state of the Polar Vortex and a rampant Jet Stream.

But now things have changed. The teleconnections (AO and NAO) have improved, the polar vortex has weakened and split and we have seen pressure rises disrupting the zonality in parts on the Northern hemisphere in the last week or more. This trend is forecast to continue and maybe even escalate. We just have to end up in the right posistion to benefit from ejections of cold air from the poles. We have already seen this over Eastern Europe. The polar air in that region looks like hanging around and we could concievably tap that over the next week or two or alternatively we may see North or Northwesterlies.


My own opinion is we will tap that cold pool to the East before the end of January after initial North or Northwesterly flows of air. I think the trough will dig down into the mediterranean as the ECM was suggesting over
the last few days but a little later. I think overall that trend is still there but it's a slow old process.

Meanwhile I suspect next weekend is not as clear cut as many think. There is a real risk of bitterly cold North or Northwesterlies becoming established. It's not really showing on the models right now, true. But not alot has to
change to put us in a very good posistion.


So i'd say turning colder during the second half of the coming week through the weekend and potentially much colder the week after. Watch this space. All may not be as it seems!

Darkman you always keep me optimistic with your big weather words and complicated sentences:D Thanks you!

Min

RickRoll wrote: »

Thank God it will be mild for the rest of winter, I work outside so it's not nice when its below freezing.

I agree, but there is a lot of winter still to go, it is a long time from mid January to early April.

darkman2

Wednesday 18th to Sunday 22nd - Frost and Snow Showers


Hi all,

This thread is intended for the second half of the coming week. It looks very likely that a very cold Northwesterly airflow will take hold from Wednesday and day by day temperatures will be falling after a brief very mild spell mid week. Very cold, frosty with increasingly wintry showers and snow showers Thursday night and Friday possible especially in the Northwest. Very Frosty weather on Saturday night associated with a ridge of high pressure with very low minima and ice may be widespread particularly where snow has settled. On Sunday it should remain cold with maximum daytime temperatures in low single figures and winds turning more Northerly. Crisp winter sunshine.

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

Wednesday 18th to Sunday 22nd - Frost and Snow Showers


Hi all,

This thread is intended for the second half of the coming week. It looks very likely that a very cold Northwesterly airflow will take hold from Wednesday and day by day temperatures will be falling after a brief very mild spell mid week. Very cold, frosty with increasingly wintry showers and snow showers Thursday night and Friday possible. Very Frosty weather on Saturday night associated with a ridge of high pressure with very low minima and ice may be widespread particularly where snow has settled. On Sunday it should remain cold with maximum daytime temperatures in low single figures and winds turning more Northerly. Crisp winter sunshine.

Totally unnecessary to open a new thread at this stage with this thread in the forum.

Lucreto

darkman2 wrote: »

Wednesday 18th to Sunday 22nd - Frost and Snow Showers


Hi all,

This thread is intended for the second half of the coming week. It looks very likely that a very cold Northwesterly airflow will take hold from Wednesday and day by day temperatures will be falling after a brief very mild spell mid week. Very cold, frosty with increasingly wintry showers and snow showers Thursday night and Friday possible. Very Frosty weather on Saturday night associated with a ridge of high pressure with very low minima and ice may be widespread particularly where snow has settled. On Sunday it should remain cold with maximum daytime temperatures in low single figures and winds turning more Northerly. Crisp winter sunshine.

If this does happen I bet all the snow will in on the mountains and hills in the north-west and the usual nothing in the east.

eyesquirm

We in the north west hope none of the snow makes it to the east. We want it all ourselves.

200motels

Lucreto wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

Wednesday 18th to Sunday 22nd - Frost and Snow Showers


Hi all,

This thread is intended for the second half of the coming week. It looks very likely that a very cold Northwesterly airflow will take hold from Wednesday and day by day temperatures will be falling after a brief very mild spell mid week. Very cold, frosty with increasingly wintry showers and snow showers Thursday night and Friday possible. Very Frosty weather on Saturday night associated with a ridge of high pressure with very low minima and ice may be widespread particularly where snow has settled. On Sunday it should remain cold with maximum daytime temperatures in low single figures and winds turning more Northerly. Crisp winter sunshine.

If this does happen I bet all the snow will in on the mountains and hills in the north-west and the usual nothing in the east.

We don't want north West winds I bloody hate them we get nothing down here from them. And what a horrible forecast just now after the news. Where's the chart they showed us on Friday?

blackius

snow on high ground or well inland and at night time mostly,maybe to the lower ground in a few heavier showers and mainly in Ulster and north connaught.
Major urban areas won't be building snowmen except maybe in Letterkenny,parts of NI or monaghan

Basically what we saw in early december,nothing of note except for the frosts becoming regular especially in leinster away from those pesky sleety showers.

On a scale of one to ten my excitement is at zero folks sadly.

Sponge Bob

darkman2 wrote: »

I think many are making the common mistake of taking the charts at face value at rediculous time periods beyond 120hrs.

:eek::eek::eek::eek:

You don't say. !!!

:cool::eek::cool::cool:

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

Totally unnecessary to open a new thread at this stage with this thread in the forum.

I will accept your apology on Friday;)

RickRoll

eyesquirm wrote: »

We in the north west hope none of the snow makes it to the east. We want it all ourselves.

You can have it.

darkman2

blackius wrote: »

snow on high ground or well inland and at night time mostly,maybe to the lower ground in a few heavier showers and mainly in Ulster and north connaught.
Major urban areas won't be building snowmen except maybe in Letterkenny,parts of NI or monaghan

Basically what we saw in early december,nothing of note except for the frosts becoming regular especially in leinster away from those pesky sleety showers.

On a scale of one to ten my excitement is at zero folks sadly.

It depends on what you are looking for. If you want a new ice age it might be disappointing but for some it's snow, ice and frost at the end of the day.

Iancar29

WHO PRESSED REWIND?! hahaha!

ninebeanrows

darkman2 wrote: »

I will accept your apology on Friday;)

What's wrong with using this thread though?

Seems the exact title for discussion no?

You can create a new one in a few days for more focused discussion but i don't see the point at this stage which such a large amount of uncertainty. This thread is ideal for discussion at the moment/.

Harps

darkman2 wrote: »

It depends on what you are looking for. If you want a new ice age it might be disappointing but for some it's snow, ice and frost at the end of the day.

Yep its not going to be anything amazing but a welcome return to more wintry weather, hail and wet snow is about the best we managed in December but it was still a good 10 days or so that I'd gladly take a repeat of

ECMWF rolling out at the moment and largely the same as earlier for Thursday and Friday, -4 to -6C upper temps which will at least give some interesting weather for a few days

ninebeanrows

Iancar29 wrote: »

WHO PRESSED REWIND?! hahaha!

We might squeeze something out of it, but we have to remember we aren't in southeastern England like most people in the UK forums. This is a fair bit away from anything of note. But something to build on tonight.

nacho libre

darkman2 wrote: »

It depends on what you are looking for. If you want a new ice age it might be disappointing but for some it's snow, ice and frost at the end of the day.

well from an imby perspective i can see why black briar downplays it. If you're living in Wicklow its a non event. however if you're living in Donegal or Mayo i think there is a decent chance of snow settling at night lower down next weekend. It won't be anything like we've had last year, but any snow in better than no snow at all.

Meanwhile according to the recent ecm 32 day forecast there is a good chance of sustained cold during February. It may not be right, but they did have a good handle on the blocking in the previous two winters.

darkman2

Weathercheck wrote: »

What's wrong with using this thread though?

Seems the exact title for discussion no?

You can create a new one in a few days for more focused discussion but i don't see the point at this stage which such a large amount of uncertainty. This thread is ideal for discussion at the moment/.

Not really a short term thread. It's from Wednesday IMO (just my opinion mind, I think Wednesday there is a real change on the way) and we will need a specific thread when/if things kick off. The models definately going that direction atm.

P.S Blink and you will miss the short snow event on the ECM on Saturday;)

Wild Bill

glimmerman123 wrote: »

Looks like any cold spell will be short and sweet. The mild air is never too far from our shores. I'm after saving a fortune on timber and coal so far this winter but having said that i still would have liked to have seen some cold snowy days. Ah well there is always next Winter.

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. So far all I hear is crows..........:)

Iancar29

Weathercheck wrote: »

We might squeeze something out of it, but we have to remember we aren't in southeastern England like most people in the UK forums. This is a fair bit away from anything of note. But something to build on tonight.

Oh but this has nothing to do with me as ill be in Sweden! ... ROLLING AROUND IN SNOW SNOW ... and ye... MORE SNOW! :pac:

But im then going back to london for 2 nights on the 24th. SO COULD get interesting !

Iancar29

Wild Bill wrote: »

It ain't over till the fat lady sings. So far all I hear is crows..........:)

Ill rather hear the fat lady sing before fecking crows anyday. :rolleyes:

nacho libre

Iancar29 wrote: »

Oh but this has nothing to do with me as ill be in Sweden! ... ROLLING AROUND IN SNOW SNOW ... and ye... MORE SNOW! :pac:

Ian there has been a heatwave in Kiruna. All the snow is gone:p

It's a great place. You'll have a wonderful time. It is Kiruna you're going to. I hope i'm not mixing you up with someone else.

Duiske

darkman2 wrote: »

Wednesday 18th to Sunday 22nd - Frost and Snow Showers


Hi all,

This thread is intended for the second half of the coming week. It looks very likely that a very cold Northwesterly airflow will take hold from Wednesday and day by day temperatures will be falling after a brief very mild spell mid week. Very cold, frosty with increasingly wintry showers and snow showers Thursday night and Friday possible especially in the Northwest. Very Frosty weather on Saturday night associated with a ridge of high pressure with very low minima and ice may be widespread particularly where snow has settled. On Sunday it should remain cold with maximum daytime temperatures in low single figures and winds turning more Northerly. Crisp winter sunshine.

Darkman, what charts were you looking at to come up with that forecast ? GFS (as it stands now) shows zero snow, and shows minimum temps for Saturday night rangeing from 3 in the east, to 7 in the west.

jirafa

Well Mark Vogan is positive as far as cold enough for snow is concerned.

LONG RANGE DISCUSSION: Very Cold Week Ahead For Europe!
By Mr Mark Vogan.

Link.............. http://youtu.be/-igZxf6rQqM


Well if Mark is still sticking to his guns, maybe we should bear with him till the end of Jan at least...After all,we have nothing to lose, but our patience with him..:D:D:D;););):p:p:p:):):rolleyes::rolleyes::cool::cool:

yorlum11

nacho libre wrote: »

well from an imby perspective i can see why black briar downplays it. If you're living in Wicklow its a non event. however if you're living in Donegal or Mayo i think there is a decent chance of snow settling at night lower down next weekend. It won't be anything like we've had last year, but any snow in better than no snow at all.

Meanwhile according to the recent ecm 32 day forecast there is a good chance of sustained cold during February. It may not be right, but they did have a good handle on the blocking in the previous two winters.

Have you a link for that Nacho?

Nabber

GFS looking a lot nicer out in the far reaches of FI. Too far out to get excited. Showing a big build up on a Scandi High. No doubt it will be downgrade slowly over the next week.

Sponge Bob

OK so Darkman predicts a spot of Graupel at 100m ASL and over in Donegal. This thread is really cooking now....even if it took two weeks to get here.

patneve2

ECM not bad, better than nothing

Eastcoastryan

What would the latest ECM produce IF it were to materialise??

ninebeanrows

Eastcoastryan wrote: »

What would the latest ECM produce IF it were to materialise??

Some wintry showers for some areas Friday (briefly)

From Saturday it would turn a bit milder in the west coast but a shortwave moves across the country which would bring a spell of rain, sleet and snow, potentially snow inland of the east coast.

Sunday would be frosty with a few wintry light showers in the east and then.
Cold night Sunday night, harsh frost.

Things would then turn mild countrywide Monday night into Tuesday