Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

pauldry

There is a chance of cold weather at the end of the week with snow but equally a chance of mild weather with rain:p

davidsr20

Min wrote: »

Sounds good, an early spring like last year would be great.

Sounds not good,why do people post in this tread at all with comments like an early spring would be great,maybe u misread the title

darkman2

Hi guys,

Don't be too downhearted about some of the output this morning if you want cold weather. We are still in pretty good shape and the output will continue to be up and down for the next couple of days. The UKMO is reasonably good for us as is the ECM and it is all about the trend rather then actual charts shown. Evidently alot of uncertainty with the change of pattern. The GFS operational run is well above the ensemble average now which suggests that is the last sting of a dieing wasp and i'm hopeful for big changes on either the 12z or 18z runs later on though I was expecting big changes this morning around the 96hr mark after last night's 18z GFS run as were quite a few here no doubt.

Fundamentally not alot has changed from yesterday in that it should get increasingly cold and more wintry from Wednesday with increasing frost and hail, sleet and snow showers at times particularly in the Northwest. Also it cannot be ruled out that we could see a frontal period of snow aswell at some stage with Atlantic fronts brushing up against cold air to the East and North. It's the specific details that have yet to be nailed down. Hopefully we will have some resolution by tomorrow.

pistolpetes11

davidsr20 wrote: »

Sounds not good,why do people post in this tread at all with comments like an early spring would be great,maybe u misread the title

Because its an open forum where everyone is entitled to there opinion and wishes,


In this case Min is a farmer and prolonged cold spells cause him hardship and money and his lands are on the hills which markes it worse again

dsmythy

Beyond +96 the GFS charts look an awful mess constantly. I don't think it really knows what is going to happen. Wouldn't even bother looking at them until they become less sloppy.

weatherfiend

Everybody is complaining about how cold it and it really feels colder than 7o (or even 3o which is the real feel). I love it but it's getting my hopes up, whatever the charts say

cherryghost

12Z rolling out now. This should be fun. :rolleyes:

Deep Easterly

blackius wrote: »

you want it to block all incoming from the Atlantic by it linking up to a high around Iceland somewhere

An Azores ridge linking up to a Icelandic high will help block out any mild weather reaching Ireland but not necessarily the Atlantic itself. I personally would rather see a true Scandinavian that is not associated with that accursed Azores high at all such as this classic set up back in Jan '54:

WolfeIRE

Enderman wrote: »

12Z rolling out now. This should be fun. :rolleyes:

It isn't. Same as you were at 6z up to 78 hrs.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

An Azores ridge linking up to a Icelandic high will help block out any mild weather reaching Ireland but not necessarily the Atlantic itself. I personally would rather see a true Scandinavian that is not associated with that accursed Azores high at all such as this classic set up back in Jan '54:


How long did that last for? With a Scandi highs on its own, it seems harder for us to maintain the cold, is it not?

Personally i prefer this kind of chart:


Failing that a chart like this:


Memories:(

cherryghost

12Z not looking too bad. High squeezed a little further south with lows to our east looking a bit more healthy. Let's see how it progresses

Birdnuts

Min wrote: »

Sounds good, an early spring like last year would be great.

Winter hasn't even arrived yet!! - i'd prefer to have it now instead of being subjected to another cold unpleasant May followed by a 5th succesive disappointing summer like 2011:(

cherryghost

Urgh, looks crap now. Weekend looks mild from Sunday for a few days before a slight cooling again. Had a good start but completely downhill from there. At least there's one thing to take away from this; GFS is completely all over the place. How there is such huge shifts in the models in the space of 12 hours is completely beyond me

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

How long did that last for? With a Scandi highs on its own, it seems harder for us to maintain the cold, is it not?

Personally i prefer this kind of chart:

Not very long, into the first few days of Feb. The Azores high eventually destroyed that beautiful set up.

1947. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule that would transport us back to that winter just to see that it was like. I don't think even last winter would have been a patch on it. 1947 had it all, constant strong biting winds in a far more volatile set up than at anytime during winter 2010/2011.

yorlum11

Is Mark Vogan reading this set up wrong or is there something we dont see?

nacho libre

yorlum11 wrote: »

Is Mark Vogan reading this set up wrong or is there something we dont see?

he could be seeing what he wants to see, rather than what is being depicted.

oisingeogho

Tuesday night will be mild with widespread rain or drizzle and fresh, southwest breezes. Rain and drizzle will clear to isolated showers and sunny spells by Wednesday afternoon. Winds will veer southwest to west, moderate to fresh during Wednesday and it will turn cooler later. Showers will become more frequent in the west and north on Wednesday night but other areas will be mainly dry; cool overnight but too breezy for frost. It will become colder on Thursday as fresh to strong, westerly winds set in countrywide. There will be widespread showers and sunny intervals, some of the showers heavy in the north, with hail there also; however, the southeast will only have isolated showers. Little change Thursday night; feeling colder but it will be too windy for significant frost. Another rather cool, windy and showery day on Friday, with some of the showers prolonged in the north and west. Little change Friday night but westerly winds will begin to moderate in many areas; significant frost is again unlikely at night due to persistent cloud. It will become wet, breezy and relatively mild on Saturday. Sunday will see a change to cold and windy conditions with scattered showers and sunny spells, most of the showers affecting the north and west; widespread frost is likely on Sunday night as winds ease and showers die out.

force eleven

nacho libre wrote: »

he could be seeing what he want to see, rather than what is being depicted.

An accusation that could be flung at a few of us here (me included)

yorlum11

nacho libre wrote: »

yorlum11 wrote: »

Is Mark Vogan reading this set up wrong or is there something we dont see?

he could be seeing what he want to see, rather than what is being depicted.

Very possible.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not very long, into the first few days of Feb. The Azores high eventually destroyed that beautiful set up.

1947. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule that would transport us back to that winter just to see that it was like. I don't think even last winter would have been a patch on it. 1947 had it all, constant strong biting winds in a far more volatile set up than at anytime during winter 2010/2011.

Indeed it would be great to go back and experience something like that!
There was battle ground situations giving decent snow falls with the milder air frequently being beaten back.
As you say the one negative thing about the cold outbreak of mid December 2010 was that type of situation never occurred. The first real attack from the Atlantic and it was all over, despite how severely cold it was over the country.

yorlum11

force eleven wrote: »

nacho libre wrote: »

he could be seeing what he want to see, rather than what is being depicted.

An accusation that could be flung at a few of us here (me included)

I suppose its just his opinion,its as good as anyones at the moment.

nacho libre

force eleven wrote: »

An accusation that could be flung at a few of us here (me included)

Yes. Most of us who want colder weather are all guilty of it at times:D

jirafa

10-14 day outlook & early Feb thoughts 16/1/12
From: Weather School's Channel Jan 16, 2012


Link ....................http://youtu.be/dOv7dBBnHNQ


Well if Simon is right in his outlook, it looks like that our chance of snow,in this neck of the woods, is over for winter 2011/12.

Hope he is wrong,,but its hard to disagree,with him at the same time, if he is reading the charts correctly.

:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::mad::(:(:(:(:mad::mad::mad:

bb1234567

Should I start the winter 12/13 thread now?:p

munsterlegend

Just reading over on NW and they seem much more optimisic on here saying we are very close to having the colder air from the East and that each GFS run is trending further West.

DOCARCH

munsterlegend wrote: »

Just reading over on NW and they seem much more optimisic on here saying we are very close to having the colder air from the East and that each GFS run is trending further West.

Yes indeed, the only problem is that is for the UK. They are closer to having cold air - we are not.

The 12z GFS shows sleet and snow at times for England and Scotland but only rain for Ireland.

Redsunset

Close but no cigar more like.

They have a chance for brief wintryness however we are just enough too far west

Anyway this is a pitiful setup until we see a robust block set up that can actually help deliver a good prolonged easterly. Feeling that we are chasing a ghost for Jan.Roll on Feb

BLIZZARD7

AO forecast is interesting, A few ensembles drop of the graph!

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

Look at the next 3 charts- The first 2 from the past-the third is todays chart-Tell me honestly which of the first 2 we are closer to. ;D

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=16&mohttp://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.phpnth=1&year=1989&hour=0&map=5&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=19&month=1&year=1947&hour=0&map=5&mode=0

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=1&type=0&archive=0




Dan :cool:

darkman2

The GFS operational run is not digging the trough south into the continent this weekend as much as the other models. UKMO is fine and cold with wintry showers from Thursday. Be interesting to see the ECM shortly. Happy overall with this evenings model runs so far. Plenty of potential.

Onward and upward!

patneve2

ECM 168 hrs....so much uncertainty, the models really don't know what's going on...