Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

blackius

more like backwards and downpours (of Rain)

Redsunset

Yeah nothing of much interest for me either. Ok it's changing slightly from run to run but this is really nothing to be getting excited about. When I see a strong block in the right place set up I will be more enthusiastic. Sorry but that's the way it is.

200motels

redsunset wrote: »

Yeah nothing of much interest for me either. Ok it's changing slightly from run to run but this is really nothing to be getting excited about. When I see a strong block in the right place set up I will be more enthusiastic. Sorry but that's the way it is.

I have to agree with you, it's crap at the moment.

davidsr20

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Not very long, into the first few days of Feb. The Azores high eventually destroyed that beautiful set up.

1947. What I wouldn't give to have a time capsule that would transport us back to that winter just to see that it was like. I don't think even last winter would have been a patch on it. 1947 had it all, constant strong biting winds in a far more volatile set up than at anytime during winter 2010/2011.

Can some explain what happened that year to make it the one that people remember,how come this event is so rare,and what's needed for this to every happen again?
Was is jan/feb 47 this happened and was nov/dec 46 mild like now?

glimmerman123

Gerry Murphy on the six one weather just said that there was a lot of uncertainty about next weekends weather. So the next couple of days will be interesting.

Redsunset

I'm a cold seeker and love to see great potential in models however I think its time we call a spade, a spade here. I would love to see this post shoved back in my face but don't think it will. Places the far side of the world are freezing their ass off but we have missed out for now. Perhaps the turn off the month will produce something amazing
No disrespect to any posters here by the wa:)y.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

redsunset wrote: »

I'm a cold seeker and love to see great potential in models however I think its time we call a spade, a spade here. I would love to see this post shoved back in my face but don't think it will. Places the far side of the world are freezing their ass off but we have missed out for now. Perhaps the turn off the month will produce something amazing
No disrespect to any posters here by the wa:)y.

I hate to say it but im with ya

There is a spot on the fence beside me if you want it

blackius

davidsr20 wrote: »

Can some explain what happened that year to make it the one that people remember,how come this event is so rare,and what's needed for this to every happen again?
Was is jan/feb 47 this happened and was nov/dec 46 mild like now?

The only set rule that weather follows is that winds round a high pressure go clockwise and anti clockwise with a low pressure.
Thats it.

The rest is random.
Random gusts of wind,random amounts of rain,random cold,random heat and crucially random positioning of the highs and lows which leads to random wind directions and random front positioning s and random convection etc etc

Models do their best to forecast these entirely random events,they don't make the weather [though you'd swear they did sometimes with posts on weather fora],they just try to forecast where the various events governing weather will take place and the where items governing them will be.

Nov-December was a random perfect[almost] storm mix as was that 1947 winter though it was better,longer and more intense.

So to answer your question,it's all random.
We know in theory where things should be to get particular types of weather but how they get there is random.

Does that help? It's all I can say without complicating things with textbook analysis/charts/venn diagrams/complex drawings and foruma's etc
I'll finish by using the word random one more time.
Random

glimmerman123

The cold spell has been pushed back so many times this Winter i am beginning to believe this Winter is going to be one big damp squib. Roll on next Winter. :mad:

dsmythy

I was born in 1984. Normal to me is this winter!

If only some of the set ups this winter happened in summer instead :rolleyes: Would be a scorcher.

eyesquirm

t|nt|n wrote: »

I hate to say it but im with ya

There is a spot on the fence beside me if you want it

Won't you two look sweet.

Wild Bill

glimmerman123 wrote: »

The cold spell has been pushed back so many times this Winter i am beginning to believe this Winter is going to be one big damp squib. Roll on next Winter. :mad:

But next winter will be a big damp squib also - if we go with the stats

davidsr20

I think I may book this ski holiday did I hear Austria got serious snow last week the left people stranded! Also the snow was late in all ski resorts this year and now there getting really good dumpings!

Wild Bill

davidsr20 wrote: »

I think I may book this ski holiday did I hear Austria got serious snow last week the left people stranded! Also the snow was late in all ski resorts this year and now there getting really good dumpings!

Bit like the models predicting cold weather here all winter; Austria just got downgraded :cool:

Gonzo

looks like January is gonna be another rite-off, i'll come back in a week hopefully things will be looking better by then for some proper wintryness. Still hoping February will deliver, at this stage i'd be happy enough to settle for a 2 day snow outbreak in February. From my memory I think the first decent winter in years about 3 years ago delivered most snow during February so we still live in hope.

Min

Birdnuts wrote: »

Winter hasn't even arrived yet!! - i'd prefer to have it now instead of being subjected to another cold unpleasant May followed by a 5th succesive disappointing summer like 2011:(

We had a very dry summer here, a very good summer in fact, just a bit too dry as we had drought conditions.

Lucreto

Watching this and then the weather an 9.30 they are completely different.

blackius

davidsr20 wrote: »

I think I may book this ski holiday did I hear Austria got serious snow last week the left people stranded! Also the snow was late in all ski resorts this year and now there getting really good dumpings!

If we had mountain ranges 5000ft asl and higher,they would get regular dumpings the likes of which would put the alps to shame.

The only reason austrian mountains etc got record snow was because they got the weather systems in
Up at the heights of most ski slopes,especially the higher ones,precipitation is usually snow,so get an atlantic system in or a yoke that floats down the north sea and then into Europe and of course they get dumpings.
Thats their climate up at that height and also that they are so far inland.

Are we at the point yet by the way that this thread can be renamed impossible cold spell mid-late january

blackius

Lucreto wrote: »

Watching this and then the weather an 9.30 they are completely different.

Theres a reason for that...
Ones rubbish and the others not and I'll give you a clue which one,the reliable one was brought to you by an agency whose first word rhymes with wet

derekon

Lucreto wrote: »

Watching this and then the weather an 9.30 they are completely different.

Fair play to Mark Vogan, he has a passion for weather I will give him that. However, I cannot help but think that he is just hopecasting - he states in the video that he thinks this weekend in the UK and Ireland will see most cities struggling to get above freezing..........what weather charts is he reading?!! :D:D

D

blackius

fantasycasting.
That lad and yer man,whats his name madden live on planet laa laa land where dreams and reality get confuzzled.

Wild Bill

derekon wrote: »

Fair play to Mark Vogan, he has a passion for weather I will give him that. However, I cannot help but think that he is just hopecasting -

Lotta that here :cool:

Is it time to re-name this thread (in time-honoured tradition) "Possible Cold Spell Mid-Late May"

dsmythy

Lucreto wrote: »

Watching this and then the weather an 9.30 they are completely different.

He seems to disregard the very charts he is looking at. How can a one day northerly flow bring sub zero temps to UK/IRE? Even if snow came it would be killed off by ridging soon after. The latest version of the charts he was viewing have already changed the pattern he was looking at.

He is super enthusiastic and can't fault him for it but he is killed by allowing what he wants to see enter his forecasts.

yorlum11

Looks like the 18z rolling out now is a little better for this weekend?IMHO

Sponge Bob

dsmythy wrote: »

He is super enthusiastic and can't fault him for it but he is killed by allowing what he wants to see enter his forecasts.

They are not forecasts, they are hysterical babblings. His name should be added to the swear filter so we only see ***** which is a fair description of his ravings.

Harps

yorlum11 wrote: »

Looks like the 18z rolling out now is a little better for this weekend?IMHO

Yeah an improvement for Friday if that came off, at least from an IMBY point of view it'd at give an interesting day with squally wintry showers. Its vastly different again even before 96h who knows what's going on. Even Gerry Murphy on the weather admitted they haven't a clue what's going to happen!

BEASTERLY

yorlum11 wrote: »

Looks like the 18z rolling out now is a little better for this weekend?IMHO

No.

NIALL D

if we dont get any snow soon i think ill have to give up on the weather watching.:(
and i think its true , as many say long range forcasts are just impossible to get right.
with all the long-range forcasts and outlooks ive seen and read this winter i just dont think there possible to get right and anything that did/does come off is more luck than anything really.

i think from now on maybe be just better off watchin the rte daily news and you would have some idea of the weather for 1 - 2 days ahead , and dont put to much confidence in anything beyond that...

an of course check MT's daily updates , to get and idea what lies instore for the few days ahead !!

Duiske

Lucreto wrote: »

Watching this and then the weather an 9.30 they are completely different.

Hope this guy never contemplates moving to South Africa. New law means up to 5yrs in the slammer if an independant forecaster issues a warning of severe weather which turns out to be wrong, and thats for a first offence. :eek:

blackius

lol

Anyhow ukmo's Alex deakin has tweeted tonight about the uk,never mind here...

@alexdeakin Alex Deakin


Chance of any significant snow at the end of the week looking slim. The wait goes on for the #snowmantics....

That would be the fat lady singing for january.
Anyone want to start a thread on february's prospects?

Please don't,I'm superstitious now