Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Duiske

Harps wrote: »

Yeah an improvement for Friday if that came off, at least from an IMBY point of view it'd at give an interesting day with squally wintry showers. Its vastly different again even before 96h who knows what's going on. Even Gerry Murphy on the weather admitted they haven't a clue what's going to happen!

Much better run for the Northern half of the country from late Thurday afternoon thru to the early hours of Friday morning. Good chance of wintry stuff. Not much to get excited about after that, but given the change between the last 2 GFS runs at only 96hrs, then who knows.
Quick look at ensemble (dublin) shows this run is by far the mildest for the weekend. For the rest of the run the OP is up and down like a fiddlers elbow.

weatherfiend

Ah c'mon guys n girls!! The great thing about this thread is that we all want the same thing!!! So stop being downers on all those trying to be positive about what COULD come about. That's life - hope

We'll move on to summer when it's time n have just as much fun

pauldry

yeah possible cold spell Mid-Late January 2013!

2012 will be hot!

Birdnuts

Min wrote: »

We had a very dry summer here, a very good summer in fact, just a bit too dry as we had drought conditions.

It was very chilly though - I can only remember a handfull of days where it was pleasant to walk around in a T-Shirt. Certainly no real beach weather - indeed its been many years now since I've even contamplated taking a dip on the East coast such has been the lack of any real heat:( I got one or 2 days back in 2008 in the West of Ireland, but thats been it since the marvellous heat of June/July 2006!!

PS: And I really fear if we don't get some decent cold between now and the middle of March things will balance out with yet another cool, cloudy summer:(

Nabber

UKMO showing a nice high building up through east US. Not all models agree on how much the high will build up. We may get enough to block the Westerlies




IOf we can't shift the Azores high West to North West. Then it doesn't matter to much what goes on anywhere elese :rolleyes:

Elmer Blooker

Nabber wrote: »

IOf we can't shift the Azores high West to North West. Then it doesn't matter to much what goes on anywhere elese :rolleyes:

So true. I have been more or less saying this for two months now.
This only cold spells in this situation will be brief NW'lies. end of...

nilhg

NIALL D wrote: »

if we dont get any snow soon i think ill have to give up on the weather watching.:(
and i think its true , as many say long range forcasts are just impossible to get right.
with all the long-range forcasts and outlooks ive seen and read this winter i just dont think there possible to get right and anything that did/does come off is more luck than anything really.

i think from now on maybe be just better off watchin the rte daily news and you would have some idea of the weather for 1 - 2 days ahead , and dont put to much confidence in anything beyond that...

an of course check MT's daily updates , to get and idea what lies instore for the few days ahead !!

Depends what you mean by long range really, if it's the predicting a white Christmas in June then yeah that's bunkum, but if you mean watching the models and trying to see the trends a week or 10 days ahead then I think the current technology is pretty good. It's not at a stage where you can predict exactly what the morning of this day week will be like but usually the trends are clear enough.

I'm a tillage farmer and in the sowing, spraying and harvesting seasons I have to make all sorts of decisions that can save or cost me a lot of money which are weather related, sure there's Met Eireann and the UKMO and all the various websites but I like to be able to come in and see the various models and make a decision for myself based on the maximum amount of data.

HellFireClub

nilhg wrote: »

Depends what you mean by long range really, if it's the predicting a white Christmas in June then yeah that's bunkum, but if you mean watching the models and trying to see the trends a week or 10 days ahead then I think the current technology is pretty good. It's not at a stage where you can predict exactly what the morning of this day week will be like but usually the trends are clear enough.

I'm a tillage farmer and in the sowing, spraying and harvesting seasons I have to make all sorts of decisions that can save or cost me a lot of money which are weather related, sure there's Met Eireann and the UKMO and all the various websites but I like to be able to come in and see the various models and make a decision for myself based on the maximum amount of data.

I often wonder how the farmers of years ago, coped without the technology that we have today.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Im actually enjoying this back and forth on the models.

I think we will see something come out of the blue in the next few days when they suddenly lock on to it.

NIALL D

nilhg wrote: »

Depends what you mean by long range really, if it's the predicting a white Christmas in June then yeah that's bunkum, but if you mean watching the models and trying to see the trends a week or 10 days ahead then I think the current technology is pretty good. It's not at a stage where you can predict exactly what the morning of this day week will be like but usually the trends are clear enough.

I'm a tillage farmer and in the sowing, spraying and harvesting seasons I have to make all sorts of decisions that can save or cost me a lot of money which are weather related, sure there's Met Eireann and the UKMO and all the various websites but I like to be able to come in and see the various models and make a decision for myself based on the maximum amount of data.

hey nilhg , i know exactly what you mean but im kinda talkin about people tryin to predict whats goina happen in a months + time...;)

Rebelbrowser

If we are keeping this thread going I think we can safely drop the word "mid" from the title......

esposito

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If we are keeping this thread going I think we can safely drop the word "mid" from the title......

Yep. I have a funny feeling we might see something good for the last week of Jan. Just a gut feeling that's all. Hoping Ian will bring back some cold weather from Sveeeden

Wild Bill

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

If we are keeping this thread going I think we can safely drop the word "mid" from the title......

Nah...the way things are going keep "mid" and add "February" :mad:

Iancar29

esposito wrote: »

Yep. I have a funny feeling we might see something good for the last week of Jan. Just a gut feeling that's all. Hoping Ian will bring back some cold weather from Sveeeden

I'll try my best !


Current Forecast for when im there looks to be going below -15 o C , perhaps into the -20s ! .... BRRRRR!

Packing now! .... NOTE : * THROWS SWIM SHORTS IN * ... Jacuzzi underneath the sky! ... :cool:


BUt ye, keep the faith,the weather always has tricks up its sleeves! ...

>>>>:cool:

Wild Bill

btw, I'm seriously thinking of cancelling Friday's blizzard.

I'll give the GFS/ECM thingy another gander at 00Z....just before zzzzzzzzz....and make the call then :cool:

esposito

Iancar29 wrote: »

I'll try my best !


Current Forecast for when im there looks to be going below -15 o C , perhaps into the -20s ! .... BRRRRR!

Packing now! .... NOTE : * THROWS SWIM SHORTS IN * ... Jacuzzi underneath the sky! ... :cool:


BUt ye, keep the faith,the weather always has tricks up its sleeves! ...

>>>>:cool:

I'm well jello Ian. The colder it gets, the happier I would be Half-thinking of going somewhere cold myself in Feb if i can, even on my tod!

th3 s1aught3r

Of all the major snow events we have had in Ireland in the past, how many of these have been in the end of January/ February ?

Nabber

t|nt|n wrote: »

Im actually enjoying this back and forth on the models.

I think we will see something come out of the blue in the next few days when they suddenly lock on to it and then suddenly drop it

Fixed your post for you.

The back and forth is entertaining.
If we could bring the 'events' closer to present time, rather than +144. Then we will get some heated debates going on.

Su Campu

The HiRLAM has gone a bit bonkers regarding Thursday night, with 850-1000 thickness of 1270-1280 m through the north, and theta-e below +10 °C in the northern half of the country. These would indicate snow to all levels for the northern half of the country, but compared with the other models it is a huge cold outlier, and I fail to see a reason for such a cold scenario. It will still be interesting to see if it sticks to its guns over the next few runs.

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Su Campu wrote: »

The HiRLAM has gone a bit bonkers regarding Thursday night, with 850-1000 thickness of 1270-1280 m through the north, and theta-e below +10 °C in the northern half of the country. These would indicate snow to all levels for the northern half of the country, but compared with the other models it is a huge cold outlier, and I fail to see a reason for such a cold scenario. It will still be interesting to see if it sticks to its guns over the next few runs.

Hey Su, good to see you back !

What is your take on all of this chopping and changing ?

pistolpetes11

Su Campu wrote: »

The HiRLAM has gone a bit bonkers regarding Thursday night, with 850-1000 thickness of 1270-1280 m through the north, and theta-e below +10 °C in the northern half of the country. These would indicate snow to all levels for the northern half of the country, but compared with the other models it is a huge cold outlier, and I fail to see a reason for such a cold scenario. It will still be interesting to see if it sticks to its guns over the next few runs.

Pretty much par of the course for models to be showing all sorts the last 2 weeks , the discrepancies has been amazing .

Lucreto

Friday: A possibility of another band of rain crossing from the Atlantic bringing back milder weather with temperatures possibly rising to 10 or 11 degrees again in fresh westerly winds. Mild Friday night with scattered outbreaks of rain. Saturday: Still a possibility of mild, breezy weather with scattered outbreaks of rain. Sunday: The latest indications are that a cold front will cross Ireland on Sunday bringing a spell of heavy rain and followed by colder weather with wintry showers and a possibility of frost Sunday night. Please note that there continues to be is a good deal of uncertainty in the details of the forecast with overall a very mixed scenario in prospect.

Met Eireann doesn't even know what is going to happen.

screamer

Nothing new there, Met Eireann never know.... I'll stick to MTs forecasts.

Rebelbrowser

Interestingly both MT here and GP on Netweather have posted in the last 24 hours to say the models are all over the shop because changes are afoot and we could yet get a blast of real cold this side of February...hope they are right.

As an aside and in praise of our little boards section, I was reading the model update thread on netweather for 3 days without knowing what the real problem was with the lack of cold. 20 seconds on here and WolfIre, who I think doesn't profess to having any technical qualifications (sorry if wrong!), had explained you need to look at the Azores High and if it doesn't bugger off (north) west then there's no hope of real cold. On netweather I was too busy reading that the GFS was gone AWOL in relation to the ECM which in turn was consistent with the AO but OMG in relation to the NAO all leading to a real or otherwise Toppler just east of Greeny which in turn would lead to a Bartlett....etc....to know what the hell was actually happening.

jirafa

Tuesday's 10-14 day outlook 17/1/12
From: Weather School Channel


Video link ............. http://youtu.be/kIHMdtobwKM

jirafa

Latest news and views from Brian Gaze, TWO's founder.


Unsettled outlook
Posted Tue, 17 Jan 2012 08:51:21

The risk of widespread wintry weather later this week looks to have diminished quite a lot for most of the country, although higher ground in the north could see some sleet or snow. It looks as though the Azores high pressure will continue to have a big influence on the weather here, with the colder air being pushed back further east. It’s a fairly typical pattern we get in Britain during the winter months, with pressure remaining low close to Iceland, and high to the south west, giving a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. The more prolonged colder spells usually come about when pressure is higher over Iceland than the Azores and the NAO goes negative. No real sign of that happening now,or in the near future.

Musicman2000

UKMO update going by the ECM 32 day outlook



Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

Rebelbrowser

Musicman2000 wrote: »

UKMO update going by the ECM 32 day outlook



Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

The plot thickens.......

H2UMrsRobinson

I can't take anymore...!!!!

there's a song by the lovely Katy Perry that springs to mind, something about up and down, hot and cold etc.

jirafa

Lucreto wrote: »

Met Eireann doesn't even know what is going to happen.

Its not just Met Eireann arent sure,on what may happen.UK Met Office also not to sure,in their extended forecast.



UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012


UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 201,