Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

lostinashford

jirafa wrote: »

Its not just Met Eireann arent sure,on what may happen.UK Met Office also not to sure,in their extended forecast.



UK Outlook for Sunday 22 Jan 2012 to Tuesday 31 Jan 2012:

Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012


UK Outlook for Wednesday 1 Feb 2012 to Wednesday 15 Feb 2012:

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 201,

If there's one thing I've learnt from following this thread is that no one knows what the likely outcome will be...yet. Any room left on that fence:D

odyboody

Musicman2000 wrote: »

UKMO update going by the ECM 32 day outlook



Sunday is likely to be chilly and windy, with a mixture of sunny spells and scattered showers. Showers should be most frequent in the north, with snow on hills, whilst the south should remain driest. Similar conditions will likely persist through the following days, with further showers and some more persistent rain likely to affect many areas. Temperatures will probably be near average, occasionally mild, but with overnight frosts possible in any quieter interludes. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.

I love snow as much as the next polar bear but think the red highlighted area should be stressed.
This winter I have taken the view expect the worst and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Unfortunately expecting the worst has turned out to be worse than expected:rolleyes:

Musicman2000

odyboody wrote: »

I love snow as much as the next polar bear but think the red highlighted area should be stressed.
This winter I have taken the view expect the worst and hope to be pleasantly surprised.
Unfortunately expecting the worst has turned out to be worse than expected:rolleyes:

Yeah the lastest GFS run is zonal and more zonal its still just one run and hopefully we are not going back to square one again:mad:

TheMilkyPirate

12z isn't too bad, The PV is further west and has been trending further west on each run now. The russian high seems to be pushing further east and the greenland heights are still there trying.

It seems it's been "potential" for quite a while now and i can see why people would be getting anxious, I think if were not seeing some proper resolution to what's going to happen by Friday then it may be time to look toward February.

EDIT: Also the latest UKMET update is grounds for optimism.

6-15 days
There is considerable uncertainty regarding the weather during the last few days of January. The slightly more probable scenario at present is that conditions will remain similar to those described above. However there is also a significant risk of much colder weather becoming established right across the UK, with snow in places and widespread overnight frosts.
Updated: 1310 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

16-30 days

The forecast for the first half of February is very uncertain. As with the day 6 to 15 forecast, there appear to be two main scenarios, each equally probable, but which are very different. It is also fairly likely that the prevailing weather type at the end of January will continue into February. The first scenario consists of a changeable westerly or southwesterly type, with rain at times (amounts greatest in the west), and with temperatures noticeably above average for early February, with only occasional frosts. The alternative scenario is that very much colder weather, with winds from an easterly or northeasterly quarter, will prevail well into February, bringing widespread frosts, and snow to some areas. In this scenario it would be the east that was most vulnerable to snowfall.
Updated: 1436 on Tue 17 Jan 2012

Obviously it's just as likely that the non bold parts will be what actually happens. But encouraging none the less to see them mention the possibility.

EDIT: Sorry just realised jirafa had already posted the met update!!

pauldry

so basically they are saying that there is a possibility it could snow in the winter

200motels

pauldry wrote: »

so basically they are saying that there is a possibility it could snow in the winter

Yeah that's about all they are saying, pie in the sky if you ask me, this mild muck this evening is terrible, how anyone would prefer this type of weather to nice crisp and cold is beyond me.:mad:

darkman2

It's going to be cold this weekend with wintry showers and some snow showers in the Northwest Friday night into Saturday morning. Frost elsewhere too. Sunday night may be particularly cold with sub zero temperatures widely - icy patches and severe frost.

Hooter23

I dont think we will get as much snow as there expecting in north west of america :pac:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16601307

esposito

darkman2 wrote: »

It's going to be cold this weekend with wintry showers and some snow showers in the Northwest Friday night into Saturday morning. Frost elsewhere too. Sunday night may be particularly cold with sub zero temperatures widely - icy patches and severe frost.

Damn north westerlies are no good to us here on the east coast! Please God an easterly/north easterly will develop in feb. Still, I suppose a sharp frost is something:rolleyes:

darkman2

esposito wrote: »

Damn north westerlies are no good to us here on the east coast! Please God an easterly/north easterly will develop in feb. Still, I suppose a sharp frost is something:rolleyes:

There is life beyond the pale;)

Nabber

Cold from the west? Living in Dublin I think I'll pass on that. Just get cold, wet & windy conditions. Which is possibly the worst form of weather.

If we could just get a high to the NW that actually blocks, that would be a start. Any build up in Nova Scotia, Greenland and The Azores seems to fade out allowing the Lows to go as they please.

If this Azores high drops south in Summer, that will just be the biggest kick in the balls.

Wild Bill

Nabber wrote: »

If this Azores high drops south in Summer, that will just be the biggest kick in the balls.

It always does!

Don yer jock-strap

Wild Bill

darkman2 wrote: »

There is life beyond the pale;)

'Tis but a pale shadow of life

derekon

Nabber wrote: »

Cold from the west? Living in Dublin I think I'll pass on that. Just get cold, wet & windy conditions. Which is possibly the worst form of weather.

If we could just get a high to the NW that actually blocks, that would be a start. Any build up in Nova Scotia, Greenland and The Azores seems to fade out allowing the Lows to go as they please.

If this Azores high drops south in Summer, that will just be the biggest kick in the balls.

Could not agree more Nabber. I live in Dublin too (folks, outside the Pale, please let myself and Nabber have our moment) - cold from the west for us in Dublin typically means rain and wind or if you are lucky some sleet or hail.

So like Nabber, I say PASS to the cold from the west! Its crap.

However, one great thing about living in Dublin is that when we get the beast from the east, its the best place in Ireland to live! Think December 2010, January 09, February 08, December 2000, February 91, January 87, January 82, winter '63, winter '47...............you get my drift! :D:D:D:D

D

mcriot29

Wild Bill wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

There is life beyond the pale;)

'Tis but a pale shadow of life

That ao and nao looks impresive for cold from 23rd on both go low and stay low right into feb

Wild Bill

derekon wrote: »

However, one great thing about living in Dublin is that when we get the beast from the east, its the best place in Ireland to live! Think December 2010, January 09, February 08, December 2000, February 91, January 87, January 82, winter '63, winter '47...............you get my drift! :D:D:D:D

You forgot February 69, January 71, January 77, December 78, January and February 79 -n I'm sure there is a few more!

Add: Dec 2000 and 28th Feb/March 2001 - that was a biggie!

Lucreto

I am not sure if they were posted already


http://policlimate.com/climate/gens_nao_00.png

http://policlimate.com/climate/gens_ao_00.png

derekon

Quick update from MT following a question I posted to him earlier this evening - basically is this winter now a write off in Ireland for any snow?

MT's reply noted below and might give some of you hope

D


M.T. Cranium
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Well, I'm sure you as well as other readers can imagine the frustration of seeing the global models toying with the same patterns as my long-range forecast (in second half of January) then backing off, returning with new glimpses, backing off again ... at least I predicted what the models would show.

As to what will actually happen, I would not write off chances for snow yet, the models have not closed the door on it totally and also they could be wrong at any point past 120h (120 minutes?) ... the polar vortex has begun to leak cold in various places (for example, western-central North America) and I don't think the strong +AO will persist.

Let's say the chances are about 50-50 that the rest of the winter will deliver one significant snowfall in Ireland, and about 25% for two events (separated by more than 3d). As to severe cold, the snowfall is a big factor there. The minimum of -3 in Dublin (and -6 in B'ham) in the recent cool spell would have been 5-8 deg colder over a snow cover, and then that high would have dug in and resisted the Atlantic more vigorously too. So there's always feedback issues in the details, although I continue to believe that patterns are largely responsive to external forcing.

Anyway, let's see how January actually unfolds, stranger things have happened than some massive upgrades in the model runs.

darkman2

I have to say I think it is unfair, though not unexpected, for IMBY's to want snow or whatever in their own town or city and thus dismiss forecasts for other regions more conducive to what they want to see in their neck of the woods. I do myself want to see something interesting.

Fact is that it will be cold this weekend across the country and for a lucky few some are going to see some snow in the Northwest. Others on higher ground above 150m have a very good chance of seeing snow showers on either Friday or Saturday/night. And it will be frosty elsewhere with good spells of sunshine (a few wintry showers elsewhere too).

I wonder do posters in the West sometimes feel left out or ignored on the forum? I take joy out of seeing other's joy when they see snow.:D To hell with the Dubs and enjoy any weather you get that we are (mostly) deprived of:D

Wild Bill

darkman2 wrote: »

I wonder do posters in the West sometimes feel left out or ignored on the forum?

My God Dark! I'd guesstimate at least half the regulars on the weather threads are from the West or Northwest.

It's us Dubs are the ignored and weather-deprived detritus in these threads

weatherfiend

Wild Bill wrote: »

My God Dark! I'd guesstimate at least half the regulars on the weather threads are from the West or Northwest.

It's us Dubs are the ignored and weather-deprived detritus in these threads

Agreed. I'm very happy for anyone who gets snow - any snow!!! - but to be honest it's hard to be happy for someone else when we're sitting in mild muck!!!! However I'm going to be magnanimous (for now anyway) and say how great it would be for any Irish county to get snow :cool:

Su Campu

darkman2 wrote: »

I have to say I think it is unfair, though not unexpected, for IMBY's to want snow or whatever in their own town or city and thus dismiss forecasts for other regions more conducive to what they want to see in their neck of the woods. I do myself want to see something interesting.

Fact is that it will be cold this weekend across the country and for a lucky few some are going to see some snow in the Northwest. Others on higher ground above 150m have a very good chance of seeing snow showers on either Friday or Saturday/night. And it will be frosty elsewhere with good spells of sunshine (a few wintry showers elsewhere too).

Going on the GFS, UKMO and ECMWF, which have T850s of 0 to 5 °C through Friday, I would say you're mad, but looking at the Spanish Hirlam on weatheronline, I'd say you're spot on. It's still showing no signs of backing off the snow parameters of earlier, and is in total contradiction to the others. I think there must be some teething problems on that site, as the other parameters don't really back up the low thicknesses and theta-e values being quoted, and the version on meteociel isn't quite as cold.

Gut instinct tells me to side with the others, and some snow on hills in the north Thursday night, turning milder with ridging through Friday. Still will be keeping an eye on the hirlam though....

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

looking at the Spanish Hirlam on weatheronline, I'd say you're spot on.

Wasn't there a asong about that?

There is a rose in Spanish Hirlam , la la la

weatherfiend

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Wasn't there a asong about that?

There is a rose in Spanish Hirlam , la la la

I've been humming that ever since

Sponge Bob

weatherfiend wrote: »

I've been humming that ever since

Every time that dipstick Vogan is mentioned around here I hum this one in MY head

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TDgkOOlbwg

yorlum11

Sponge Bob wrote: »

weatherfiend wrote: »

I've been humming that ever since

Every time that dipstick Vogan is mentioned around here I hum this one in MY head

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TDgkOOlbwg

He might be a bit out there but the man loves his winter weather.He wouldnt be the first to get it wrong this winter.

Calibos

Hooter23 wrote: »

I dont think we will get as much snow as there expecting in north west of america :pac:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16601307

MT responded to my comments about Seattle last week (Friday). He said to tell my uncle to expect to wake up to 5-10 inches on Wednesday morning.

Exactly what that BBC report says.

H2UMrsRobinson

Calibos wrote: »

Hooter23 wrote: »

I dont think we will get as much snow as there expecting in north west of america :pac:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-16601307

MT responded to my comments about Seattle last week (Friday). He said to tell my uncle to expect to wake up to 5-10 inches on Wednesday morning.

Exactly what that BBC report says.

Lucky Aunty !!!

Min

It has been a great month of January so far.

The fields are starting to dry out, the grass is growing, happy for any snow or ice to stay a possibility but not a reality.

Though I heard someone say January grass is never eaten. But I remember someother mild winters and it was eaten but there are usually some cold spells but I don't think we will be getting any sustained long term cold.
Would be nice if we could get into the weather pattern of this time last year.
That was a great build up to a lovely spring.

Danno

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Lucky Aunty !!!