Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

M.T. Cranium

Let's pretend I have no idea what you're on about and say that around here, we would like to see 5 to 10 inches as well -- it's just a matter of nudging it a little this way. The local guys are saying 2 to 4 inches here and so very few are satisfied.

(and on and on it goes) ...

On a serious note, I will post pictures by Thursday of whatever transpires, the storm is due in here later Wednesday, so I guess the uncle wakes up rather late. Course (here we go again) ... blah blah ... so would I ... blah blah.

M.T. Cranium

Have posted a satellite image for those interested in tracking this west coast storm.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_wcan_1070_100.jpg

This image is likely to update regularly, so come back to this post in the next 24-36 hours and check the progress.

Features as of posting time (23z Tues 17th)

** the storm in question is out over the Pacific getting organized, it is expected to hit the west coast of WA state (the state south of the border with Canada) around 09z Wednesday, and should move through during the afternoon and evening.

** at present all of western Canada and the northwest border states are covered in arctic air with very low temperatures inland. A weak storm that went by here last night can be seen over the Rockies near the Alberta-Montana border (the orange clouds on this image) ... this is creating near blizzard conditions in some places with strong east winds.

** the higher cloud with bright reflectivity in northern Canada is mainly altocumulus and cirrus and some of the enhancement is geomagnetic ... this is slightly milder arctic air returning around the top of massive high pressure which is sprawled over all of Alaska, Yukon and ridges southeast into BC and Alberta.

For those who need a basic geography upgrade, the image covers these states and provinces ...


... Alaska ..... Yukon ..... Northwest Territories .... Nunavut

....(Pacific) ..... BC ........ Alberta ...... Saskatchewan ..... Manitoba

.....(Ocean) ....WA ......ID .... MT ......... ND ........... MN

................... OR .......ID ........MT ........ND ...........MN

..................CA ....... NV .......UT ....WY ....SD ...... IA

you'll have to look up what those mean if you don't already know the US states. My location (Vancouver, BC) is basically where the river hits the coast near the border and to the east of the large island on the coast which is Vancouver Island. Inland, there are basically three main mountain ranges, the Coast Ranges, the Monashee-Selkirk Ranges, and the Rocky Mountains. Each of those takes a big bite out of the moisture which is why some parts of southern Alberta are almost desert-like.

TheMilkyPirate

Hey MT I have two good friends living in Edmonton, Are they likely to see this storm. He was telling me today it's close to -30 where he is.

pauldry

latest GFS( I think its called ) on wetterzentrale the coldest for a number of runs.

Ive noticed everything I predict lately is wrong so mild and wet for the weekend.

nacho libre

baraca wrote: »

He was telling me today it's close to -30 where he is.

According to a friend of mine there, the temperature would normally be around - 6 in Edmonton at this time of year.

Redsunset

All that cold air that has been intensifying in the North Pole region due to it being bottled up over the last 2 months is now giving people a reminder that winter can indeed have a nasty bite as it spills out.

nacho libre

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/forecastvideo/caab0049

Lucreto

nacho libre wrote: »

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/forecastvideo/caab0049

Frostbite temperatures thats mad. It shows how cold the air is. Not much in the way of snow though.

nacho libre

Lucreto wrote: »

Frostbite temperatures thats mad. It shows how cold the air is. Not much in the way of snow though.

Yeah, there's a big area of high pressure nearby keeping things dry in that region, but it results in even colder air than normal streaming down right from the Arctic.
To be honest as much as i love snow and cold weather, I don't think I'd like it to be that cold here!

Calibos

Another uncle coming home for a visit from Edmonton on Friday. He'll probably feel like its shorts and T-Shirt weather here. Interesting fact - He emigrated to the same line of latitude as Bray within a few minutes around the other side of the world

Calibos

H2UMrsRobinson wrote: »

Lucky Aunty !!!

Not the Kind of 'Morning Glory' I was talking about dude!

M.T. Cranium

Edmonton won't see any snow from this system, for those who don't know, Edmonton is about 300 miles north of the border and Calgary, which is about half that distance, will be on the northern edge of any snow. (there could be very light air mass snow as weak disturbances come southeast but that would be separate).

From my data, the "normal" Edmonton January max is about -14 C, but they have a large range, there tend to be spells above freezing around 3-5 C and spells like this with -20 to -30 C highs. Most of this recent winter has been quite mild and this is the first really brutal cold wave.

The chinook downsloping winds that are warm in this climate tend to be more concentrated around Calgary and south, so they average closer to -5 C and can get well above 10 C in a strong chinook. We have seen 23 C in Alberta in January (in 1954, must have been an SUV testing ground). :cool:

This high variability is confined to regions east of the Rockies, the range is not as great in the B.C. interior although probably larger than in Ireland, and the range on the coast here is about the same as in Ireland.

Birdnuts

Hi MT - What is causing that rather active LP system with torrential downpours and high winds to develope over the Algerian Sahara ATM?? - how often does this happen

Redsunset

BBC report on USA/CANADA storm, Laura on a ramp saying some areas can expect a foot of snow.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/16604383

sdanseo

I know this is almost a week out, and so very much "FI", but surely would be bring conditions that could support snowfall unless I'm reading something wrong? 510dm-530dm, 850hPa temps around -6 (I know -7/8 is the normal minimum, but could snow at +1 or +2 with negative DP right?) with plenty of precip showing. Granted, it's not supported by any of the other models on www.wetterzentrale.de where I'm sourcing these.

I'm still a weather novice, and aware that these charts will be negated by their 174hr timeframe and the fact that new ones are due out any moment now (00Z runs), however please let me know if I;m reading this right or wrong.

200motels

sdeire wrote: »

I know this is almost a week out, and so very much "FI", but surely would be bring conditions that could support snowfall unless I'm reading something wrong? 510dm-530dm, 850hPa temps around -6 (I know -7/8 is the normal minimum, but could snow at +1 or +2 with negative DP right?) with plenty of precip showing. Granted, it's not supported by any of the other models on www.wetterzentrale.de where I'm sourcing these.

I'm still a weather novice, and aware that these charts will be negated by their 174hr timeframe and the fact that new ones are due out any moment now (00Z runs), however please let me know if I;m reading this right or wrong.

It's a long way off as you have said but to me that would be a cold setup for the north west, in my opinion for what it's worth and there's many on here who can read the charts better, we're not going to get any severe cold for the rest of the winter, I hope I'm wrong as I happen to like proper winter weather and hate mild muck.

Sponge Bob

Spot of Graupel there lads. Perhaps. Not a cold snap though.

garyha

Simon Keeling has been spot on in regard to the cold snap this weekend that never was, he stuck to his hunch which was supported by only the gfs runs last week despite all other models, particularly the ecmwf, suggesting cold.

He has put up some thoughts on a possible cold spell developing next week. I like his calm, non-hysterical manner opposed to many others such as mark vogan, I like what mark does but he goes way over the top.

Anyhow, worth a read:
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=181

Joe Public

garyha wrote: »

Simon Keeling has been spot on in regard to the cold snap this weekend that never was, he stuck to his hunch which was supported by only the gfs runs last week despite all other models, particularly the ecmwf, suggesting cold.

He has put up some thoughts on a possible cold spell developing next week. I like his calm, non-hysterical manner opposed to many others such as mark vogan, I like what mark does but he goes way over the top.

Anyhow, worth a read:
http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtvsimonnew.php?ID=181

He could be right ok but he could lessen off on the I predicted this and I predicted that stuff and find more subtle ways of expressing his good run of forecasting. There's a few of them here too:)

esposito

This Mr Keeling chap could well be right. I have more faith in him than anyone else. (excluding MT of course):D

garyha

Joe Public wrote: »

He could be right ok but he could lessen off on the I predicted this and I predicted that stuff and find more subtle ways of expressing his good run of forecasting. There's a few of them here too:)

I guess when you put so much free time into predicting things long range you like to remind people that you're being proved somewhat right. I don't mind people doing this once they can also say they were wrong. Unlike chancers like Corbyn who blame filaments on the sun or other nonsense for a lack of another "winter from hell". I thought hell was supposed to be warm, so perhaps corbyn was somewhat correct afterall.

weatherfiend

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Spot of Graupel there lads. Perhaps. Not a cold snap though.

spot of graupel would be very welcome at the moment - just while we're waiting for the real stuff:P

cherryghost

From what I see, we have some colder weather this weekend with only a minute chance of snow on lower ground, before getting milder again on Monday, and then around the 25th/26th, another colder spell with a chance of snow on higher ground once more. GFS is trending towards a mild end to January now All charts indicate a 25th-27th cooler spell though, so at least that's something to look forward to.

As for chart consistantsy, I think the round goes to the GFS. GFS went against the grain of every other chart and has duly delivered. 3-2 to ECM for now.

seanknowsall

Just been out for a very pleasant walk along the Liffey and there is a spring-like feeling out there...birds singing, first of the early wild flowers starting to appear, hazel catkins are out.... I enjoy the snow etc, but sometimes you cant beat a dry mild winter's day to make you feel good. I really think alot of users in here are clutching at straws about possible cold spells..... I have looked at the models, there is nothing to support any forecast of an imminent cold spell.... cooler in about a week or so yes but nothing wintry. Certain contributors on here tend to tell us what they think we want to hear rather than what they actually truthfully believe will happen..... only saying!! However, just because snow isnt falling in January does not imply winter has finished with us...there are still a good 8 weeks left yet for a snowfall and February is statistically the snowiest month so dont be giving up hope yet.

garyha

Simon Keeling goes for a decent cold snap starting next week.

weatherfiend

For anybody who is having withdrawal symptoms

World Snow Day.JPG

DOCARCH

12z GFS out now. Any sign of wintry weather all gone now (at least out to 192hrs)! All you can do at this stage is laugh!

bb1234567

DOCARCH wrote: »

12z GFS out now. Any sign of wintry weather all gone now (at least out to 192hrs)! All you can do at this stage is laugh!

aww:( I saw '':D'' in your post and thought it was going to be good news before I started reading it...:P

pistolpetes11

DOCARCH wrote: »

12z GFS out now. Any sign of wintry weather all gone now (at least out to 192hrs)! All you can do at this stage is laugh!

This place is already like a morgue , thats the final nail in the coffin .

Might be time to revert back to the Winter thread going forward .

Its a reals shame that were missing input on the models from Su,Deep E,Wolfe,Maq, Redsunset to name but a few .

seanknowsall

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

This place is already like a morgue , thats the final nail in the coffin .

Might be time to revert back to the Winter thread going forward .

Its a reals shame that were missing input on the models from Su,Deep E,Wolfe,Maq, Redsunset to name but a few .

Why is it a shame?? They not going to invent snow or a cold snap...the same models are used by the same people!! There is no imminent cold spell and no amount of different interpretation of models will change that.