Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

Diamond Dust

Min wrote: »

Reminds me, a plane went overhead the otherday, the app on my phone told me it was a load of depressed Norwegians returning home to Bergen and to the cold after they had taken restbite in Tenerife.

Sorry for going off topic but are you serious about the app, if so what's the name ?

Min

Diamond Dust wrote: »

Sorry for going off topic but are you serious about the app, if so what's the name ?

Yes apart from saying they were depressed Norwegians, but that would be how I would feel going from warmth to cold...
The app is on my iPhone, had to pay for it, a few euro or something like that - Plane Finder is the name of the app.
Tells the where it left from, airport, city and Country, and to where it is going, the height te plane is flying and how fast it is travelling, what airliner it is and stuff like that.

blackius

ah plane finder.
Free on android phones

Wild Bill

If the cold doesn't come by tomorrow (Friday) we can officially drop the "mid" from the thread title :cool:

btw, I'm doing a Mark Vaughan on my blizzard forecast for 20th January!

Sponge Bob

delw wrote: »

any chance you can take the back seat mods with you

Oh God NO!. :eek:

Ian is with us all year round ( bar his trips to where the snow actuallY IS) whereas the 'back seat mods' are like retarded swallows that appear in November and disappear in March. It is soooOoo civilised around here for most of the year Delw.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

the 'back seat mods' are like retarded swallows that appear in November and disappear in March.

So Sponge - if that's your real name - you are calling me a "retarded swallow" ? :mad:

Sponge Bob

Wild Bill wrote: »

So Sponge - if that's your real name - you are calling me a "retarded swallow" ? :mad:

You'd be more of an overfed Crow who can't get the leg over Bill. :cool:

But I digress! For Tomorrow is the day when you can name a Thin Scrim of Embedded Graupel on a Cliff Face in Donegal as an epic Blizzard.

Your day Bill and nobody elses.

Call it whatever you fancy. It shall be so as long as it looks white.

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

You'd be more of an overfed Crow who can't get the leg over Bill. :cool:

Hmmm....we've obviously met.

Anyways, cut to the chase - your odds on a decent, say, three day spell of snow with maxima in the zeroish region?

In late January to mid-Feb, obviously.

Sponge Bob

Feb looks good for COLD Bill.

My big problem is finding any evidence for cold meets moisture = snow.

But I fully concede cold. Sadly this is a January thread and we must meet again elsewhere to discuss.

planetX

Min wrote: »

Yes apart from saying they were depressed Norwegians, but that would be how I would feel going from warmth to cold...
The app is on my iPhone, had to pay for it, a few euro or something like that - Plane Finder is the name of the app.
Tells the where it left from, airport, city and Country, and to where it is going, the height te plane is flying and how fast it is travelling, what airliner it is and stuff like that.

Haha, if they were travelling back to Bergen you can be sure they were depressed - highest rainfall in W Europe, miserable place to live:(

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sponge Bob

t|nt|n wrote: »

A Greenland storm eh.

This is perhaps more interesting!

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Sponge Bob wrote: »

A Greenland storm eh.

This is perhaps more interesting!

Interesting run alright !!

TheMilkyPirate

Difference between the 00z and the 06z at even 96hrs but more impressively at +174 is incredible. Just goes to show anything can happen within a week.

00z +174



06z +174

ninebeanrows

Yea hopefully some good changes ahead.

As early as T96 look out for the chances of further upgrades in that weak northerly. Could give us the chance of the first sneachta showers for a few people.

ninebeanrows

Not a great fan of the GFS Ensembles.

But it shows the uncertainty and liklihood we will be heading into a below average period of weather (Temperature wise) With a decent cluster heading sub -5c for a bit.

hotwhiskey

Heavy snow on Japan's northern island of Hokkaido. 2 metres in places.

http://english.ntdtv.com/ntdtv_en/news_asia/2012-01-17/record-snow-sweeps-japan.html

Ok on another note, UK met office as said so much uncertainty in the forecast for the mid-term outlook on there blog and if you scroll down the page it also says we could be heading for the warmest January's on record if conditions stay as they are.

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

Wild Bill

hotwhiskey wrote: »

it also says we could be heading for the warmest January's on record if conditions stay as they are.

Sponge Bob stated that as a real possibility here some time ago - those crows really know their stuff

jirafa

Next weeks cold spell, an update 19/1/12
From: Weather School Channel Jan 19, 2012 .


Video Link ......... http://youtu.be/7IW7xG_HjQk


Well if Simon is right, this day next week on for a few days at least,should be cold and not mild at least.How cold and if it will bring snow,is another thing,but at least,its trending in the right direction for snow.

:D:D;);):):):):)::p:p:cool::cool:

Sponge Bob

hotwhiskey wrote: »

if you scroll down the page it also says we could be heading for the warmest January's on record if conditions stay as they are. http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/

One must be VERY careful around this forum when alluding to any form of warm excursion at this time of year Hotwhiskey. It seems that people constantly report me for it.

The UK Met Office Said:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/01/17/how-mild-has-it-been-so-far-this-winter/

"This gives a mean (including night-time and day-time temperatures) of 5.5 °C, which – if it stayed the same – would place it as one of the warmer January’s in climate records which go back to 1910."

In order to be 'the warmest' like you said it therefore has to be warmer than that again during the second half of this month and there is no evidence whatsover that it will be warmer going forward.

And No Bill, I did not make any January forecast really.

jirafa

t850control-180.png


Not bad,,but just one run, the thing is,,will it stay that way over the next few hours,never mind the next few days,but its a start at least, for some snow.

:D:D:D:):):rolleyes::rolleyes:

weatherfiend

jirafa wrote: »

t850control-180.png


Not bad,,but just one run, the thing is,,will it stay that way over the next few hours,never mind the next few days,but its a start at least, for some snow.

:D:D:D:):):rolleyes::rolleyes:

yummy!!!!

jirafa

prectypeuktopo.png


:D:D:D;);););):):):)

Duiske

Amazed no one is talking about the GFS 06z. Huge differences from the previous run.

Saturday night. That Azores high looks like its smiling at us as it tries to make a break North West.



Don't want to jinx it, so going to wait and see what the next run brings, but best run I have seen this winter at such short range. The word "potential" still has to be thrown in there, but looking good.

Gonzo

jirafa wrote: »

prectypeuktopo.png


:D:D:D;);););):):):)

I'll keep my fingers, toes and everything else crossed for this to happen, I think if we get some decent easterly snow in the east this place will go into meltdown we are so hungry for some snow! We've barely seen a flake of snow in 13 months!

weatherfiend

YUMMY!!!!!!!!!! :):):)

Nabber

The Azores high has gone NW a few times. But it has yet to block the lows rolling in.

Calibos

jirafa wrote: »

prectypeuktopo.png


:D:D:D;);););):):):)

You go Girl...its ma birthday!!

Just to remind everyone, if that comes off it'll be known as the 'Su Su Super..Cali..frigid..listic Australia Day Snowstorm, The lads took pity on my because it is my birthday and let me share the day with Su Campu in the naming competition.

Sponge Bob

Calibos wrote: »

The lads took pity on my because it is my birthday and let me share the day with Su Campu in the naming competition.

There was another condition Calibos if you'll remember but we should be able to fit you in somewhere.

Calibos

The Su-Su-Super-Cali-Frigid-Listic Snowstorm!

Oh? I thought cleverly incorporating my name within the existing name with a Mary Poppins Twist was going to be enough. Tough audience!!

No doubt the record low temp on the 26th January was set in the Dalton Minimum or something. :rolleyes: