Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)

pistolpetes11

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I firmly believe that we are going to get an easterly in the next 2 weeks! Its been trending towards it for ages now- The rollercoaster is about to go into overdrive- Expect epic easterlys to be a developing theme on future runs over the next week! ;D

AO- Going deeply negative
NAO- Going negative
MASSIVE siberian high will build+push into scandi/iceland.
GP/Chionomaniac/BFTP over on netweather have been saying for days that easterlys should start appearing in Op runs, not just ensembles! M.T thinks there is a cold pattern building too, no? Of coarse all of these forecasters could be wrong, but GP is very rarely wrong and is never wrong when he is so sure of something! + Met office UK have a strong possibility of an easterly in their 15-30 day forecast, ie 50%.

I reckon the we are going to get a beasterly! Who's with me?





Dan :cool:

The 18z is a great run according to the folks on NW plenty of easterly on show too

Wild Bill

doccy wrote: »

we're still on this forum because we like talking about the weather

Indeed. I could bore y'all silly rambling on in even the mehiest conditions!

Ain't that why we here?

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

I firmly believe that we are going to get an easterly in the next 2 weeks! Its been trending towards it for ages now- The rollercoaster is about to go into overdrive- Expect epic easterlys to be a developing theme on future runs over the next week! ;D

AO- Going deeply negative
NAO- Going negative
MASSIVE siberian high will build+push into scandi/iceland.
GP/Chionomaniac/BFTP over on netweather have been saying for days that easterlys should start appearing in Op runs, not just ensembles! M.T thinks there is a cold pattern building too, no? Of coarse all of these forecasters could be wrong, but GP is very rarely wrong and is never wrong when he is so sure of something! + Met office UK have a strong possibility of an easterly in their 15-30 day forecast, ie 50%.

I reckon the we are going to get a beasterly! Who's with me?





Dan :cool:

i'll have a ticket please, Dan. we won't get any snow this side, but i like the colour the sky takes on in an easterly and a stiff easterly breeze is much better than mild and damp conditions!

pistolpetes11

Its in FI Blizzard7 but that siberin / Russian high is a beast at 1048 and is making its way nicely to move in scandinavia , its nearly there in FI

BLIZZARD7

EXCELLENT CHART-






Dan :cool:

Sponge Bob

But this will all come in February, someone start a new thread quick !!!!!

Wild Bill

Sponge Bob wrote: »

But this will all come in February, someone start a new thread quick !!!!!

OK.

TheMilkyPirate

The 18z is a fantastic run alright, 95% sure that easterly will be gone come 4.30am but if we can get it to start showing it's beautiful bitter face a few more times I'll be very happy.

The trend is our friend.

EDIT: That cpc chart posted by blizzard is excellent, They've been very accurate so far.

Wild Bill

I'm starting this thread 'cos the consensus amongst the experts (both snow bunnies and realists) is that we are heading towards an outbreak of Siberian air around a Scandinavian High for much of February.

Odds are said to be another Feb 1986, cold and dry.

But of course all we need is a low to nudge north into such a flow to bring us Snowmageddon

Redsunset

Yes been silently keeping an eye on those CPC charts. They are good for showing the bigger picture and have been performing well.
Things could get very interesting indeed.

Wild Bill

Beast of an Easterly in February?

:mad:


Thread now started.

Sponge Bob

Yep. February looks like being a proper winter month like you remember them Bill.

darkman2

I really hope one of the mods takes some action against you two clowns at this stage. You come on here wrecking this forum which so many of us have put so much effort to build up. Would you just go away.

Wild Bill

darkman2 wrote: »

I really hope one of the mods takes some action against you two clowns at this stage. You come on here wrecking this forum which so many of us have put so much effort to build up. Would you just go away.

wtf??

Calibos

darkman2 wrote: »

I really hope one of the mods takes some action against you two clowns at this stage. You come on here wrecking this forum which so many of us have put so much effort to build up. Would you just go away.

WTF? +1

Calibos

Looks like the forum should have been made private and invite only back at its inception to keep any friendly banter, humour and comic relief out so all the hardwork would not be ruined by any comments not discussing theta values in a particular model run :rolleyes:

God, the rest of us non model analysing regulars must test some of you guys patience!

Trogdor

Can we all try and get along please? Insulting of other members is always going to get you in trouble.

Wild bill do you have any charts/reasoning you could give to support to your post?

Calibos

nacho libre wrote: »

i'll have a ticket please, Dan. we won't get any snow this side, but i like the colour the sky takes on in an easterly and a stiff easterly breeze is much better than mild and damp conditions!

Is the Irish Sea too cold to generate convection now? ie. No chance of streamers in an easterly now?

hotwhiskey

Calibos wrote: »

Is the Irish Sea too cold to generate convection now? ie. No chance of streamers in an easterly now?

Nacho libre is from Mayo or Galway i think, so a easterly is as much good to him as sunbed in the Sahara.

Wild Bill

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-252.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-336.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-348.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-384.png?18

Is there some kind of test required if Darkman happens to disapprove of your sense of humour/views/appearance/skin colour?

Trogdor

Calibos wrote: »

Is the Irish Sea too cold to generate convection now? ie. No chance of streamers in an easterly now?

Not at all actually, sea temps are still around 9-10C and with very cold air running over those (relatively) warm waters there'd be be plenty of convection kicking off. As long as atmospheric conditions were suitable for it we'd still get streamers, sea temps wouldn't be too much of an issue really.

delw

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

EXCELLENT CHART-






Dan :cool:

Dan just barely understanding the GFS etc.. any chance of a quick explication of that chart & why it's so good,thanks

Wild Bill

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1.../wea.73.03/pdf

The easterlies will probably be too weak to generate streamers like those ones ...but if Snowdonia freezes there may be some in Dublin/Wicklow if not elsewhere.

Now I'm going to bed, if that's OK?

Trogdor

Wild Bill wrote: »

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-252.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-336.png?18


http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-348.png?18

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/...8-1-384.png?18

Is there some kind of test required if Darkman happens to disapprove of your sense of humour/views/appearance/skin colour?

Not at all, it was just that your post cited only "consensus amongst the experts" for a whole month of cold weather.
A bit of friendly banter in threads here is fine, but starting new threads as a bit of a joke is not. If starting a new genuine forecast thread, some charts/explanations/reasoning to back up your forecast doesn't go amiss. I think the current January cold spell thread might be sufficient for now really but i'll leave this open for now.

On topic please, from now on or this one will be locked up.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

i'll have a ticket please, Dan. we won't get any snow this side, but i like the colour the sky takes on in an easterly and a stiff easterly breeze is much better than mild and damp conditions!

+1

The sky and general hue of the daylight are very much much enhanced during a good easterly. The sky actually looks blue between any clouds! and not the usual bleached white grey/brown tripe we get in maritime flows. This is because the air is much drier during an a proper easterly which results in less 'scattering' of light by the water content (humidity) of the atmosphere. Although if there is a haze, this can lessen the actual effect but always in a much more aesthetic and visual way.

It is true in general that the west does not get much snow under such a set up, but occasionally, it can happen. 1947 was a good example. Frequent battles between the blessed easterly and Atlantic fronts to the west and south of Ireland resulting in much snow. But equally, the best of any summer or any season weather always comes in from the east or south east. In summer, the biggest and most violent storms come from that direction, as well as the hardest/warmest/coldest & driest weather as well. The recent dry spell, in which we saw the roads actually dry for the first time in months, was because we had a brief flirt with an easterly flow.

They say that the wind from the east in neither good for man nor beast. Obviously whoever came up with that statement lived on an east coast somewhere, because living in the west of Ireland, it is the west wind that is the killer imo.

Trogdor

delw wrote: »

Dan just barely understanding the GFS etc.. any chance of a quick explication of that chart & why it's so good,thanks

Basically it shows an average of pressure 8-14 days out and has higher than average pressure over North-Eastern Canada/Greenland/Scandinavia which would be more conducive to an Easterly flow coming off the continent and over to us.

M.T. Cranium

Current GFS run (00z) is a lot colder than previous runs, supported by GEM at 144h. Floodgates open to north as the next in endless series of lows collapses southeast instead of tracking east. Leads to over a week of cold weather (not counting minor ups and downs next 5-6 days) that looks sustained through about 5-6 February. Pattern change of figment?

UKMO in general agreement, opening floodgates to northerly flow at 144h ... massive pattern change may be underway.

Will post on ECM at 0700h.

whataboutnow

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Current GFS run (00z) is a lot colder than previous runs, supported by GEM at 144h. Floodgates open to north as the next in endless series of lows collapses southeast instead of tracking east. Leads to over a week of cold weather (not counting minor ups and downs next 5-6 days) that looks sustained through about 5-6 February. Pattern change of figment?

UKMO in general agreement, opening floodgates to northerly flow at 144h ... massive pattern change may be underway.

Will post on ECM at 0700h.

Hi mt,Is this the most encouraging sign of cold weather u have seen this winter thus far?and how much of a percentage would you currently give it for heavy snow/wintry conditions in inland Ulster?thanks

M.T. Cranium

Yes, it is the most encouraging or maybe tied with some output we saw a couple of weeks ago, but the ECM has been a bit more gradual in its evolution, would not say it is totally out of step, more of an emphasis on anticylonic linkage to Scandinavia followed by colder weather in roughly the same time frame. Blending it all together, there is now good potential for a cold spell and I would say chances of snow in general are rising above the magic 50-50 barrier, for inland Ulster as the previous poster asked, 65% chance if we blend the four models being surveyed. So it's not a done deal and I will word my forecast accordingly. Going over there to post now.

nilhg

It does look fine and dandy for a pattern change, though in deep FI, one thing that might give cause for thought is that both the operational and control runs are quite extreme outliers.




Looks like it's all to play for though.