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Cold Spell Prospects and Discussion (January + Early Feb 2012)
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I'm starting this thread 'cos the consensus amongst the experts (both snow bunnies and realists) is that we are heading towards an outbreak of Siberian air around a Scandinavian High for much of February.
Odds are said to be another Feb 1986, cold and dry.
But of course all we need is a low to nudge north into such a flow to bring us Snowmageddon
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Models looking... different this morning
GFS is showing a colder outlook than most of the other models. The GFS was down played when the ECM and UKMO were showing cold outlooks to Jan. I think it was those 2 models that sparked off this thread. So I'm hoping people don't just start saying 'The GFS is the one to watch':cool:
If an Easterly does look like it's going to head our way, my thoughts would be that the Azore high will Keep the west coast average or maybe -1 below average.
I think we may find ourselves on the recieving end of a South Westerly :P0 -
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Would you explain how the azores high would affect the weather in the west if a freezing Easterly heads in?Models looking... different this morning
GFS is showing a colder outlook than most of the other models. The GFS was down played when the ECM and UKMO were showing cold outlooks to Jan. I think it was those 2 models that sparked off this thread. So I'm hoping people don't just start saying 'The GFS is the one to watch':cool:
If an Easterly does look like it's going to head our way, my thoughts would be that the Azore high will Keep the west coast average or maybe -1 below average.
I think we may find ourselves on the recieving end of a South Westerly :P
Does it get lost around mullingar and turn back?
Theres an awfull lot of nonsense in this forum in the last month or two.
Stick to the facts.0 -
Fair enough. First I never said a freezing Easterly was heading in. I was looking at the facts. As it's FI I'm not even sure it is even fact. But hey...
I was just giving my opinion. An Easterly set up does not guarantee -10 (not saying your suggesting that either)
Why can't the Azore high influence the West? I didn't realise an Easterly had to be nationwide even a setup like below I what I think is more likely, with a slight shift to the east. The Azore high hasn't moved in about 2 months? If it has moved it's usually up and East. So why is it so bad to think it might still bring us mild air?
I'm not an expert, didn't claim to be one, I said it was my opinion, it's weather related... So nonsense is a bit harsh. I could talk about crows, post irrelevant pictures and have off topic converstaions or which is more likely, move to a different weather forum where an amateur is given advice rather than attacked
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What you are showing in that graphic Nabber is a 'Battle of the Highs' setup where a northern european high with an easterly circulation coming from say the Baltic replaces an Azores high with the standard south westerly setup along the edge of it.
They may indeed 'meet' over Ireland or one could fully displace the other. Generally the Azores High has dominated in recent months save when a Cyclonic storm system periodically gave it a clatter from the west.
If the European high wins out and the Azores high moves west or south then it will be drier and colder. But we don't quite know what will happen.
Personally I like the Azores high...but not all the time and mainly from May to September when it tends to go AWOL most of the time
The most likely single event over the next while is a cold Cyclonic incursion from Greenland on Wed/Thu next. And then ??
HTH in plain language.0 -
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Look.Fair enough. First I never said a freezing Easterly was heading in. I was looking at the facts. As it's FI I'm not even sure it is even fact. But hey...
I was just giving my opinion. An Easterly set up does not guarantee -10 (not saying your suggesting that either)
Why can't the Azore high influence the West? I didn't realise an Easterly had to be nationwide even a setup like below I what I think is more likely, with a slight shift to the east. The Azore high hasn't moved in about 2 months? If it has moved it's usually up and East. So why is it so bad to think it might still bring us mild air?
I'm not an expert, didn't claim to be one, I said it was my opinion, it's weather related... So nonsense is a bit harsh. I could talk about crows, post irrelevant pictures and have off topic converstaions or which is more likely, move to a different weather forum where an amateur is given advice rather than attacked
I'm sorry if I have offended you but I'm finding the mis reading of weather charts and the resulting flawed analysis is growing around here.
An easterly if it's there will contain air from the East and if that is freezing cold,it will actually bring colder temperatures to the west than to the east because it will have lost a bit of warming got over the irish sea and will have gone over land.
Plus at night time frosts would be much deeper further west.
The chart above you posted is not an easterly.
It's possibly a transition to one.
An azores high would not be affecting an easterly if there was an easterly because if the azores was having any influence on our weather there would be no easterly.
Do you get what I'm saying?
You gave the impression that both could be affecting our weather at the same time,they couldn't.
And yes the type of easterly being discussed should it materialise would be nationwide and a few hundred miles or more into the atlantic.
Look at some of the historic great easterlies eg february 1991
Even if a weather system came in from the atlantic,the wind would still be easterly in a battleground situation eg jan 82
This is all very basic and no I'm not trying to be smarmy here so please don't take it like that
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Agreed.Mis-reading of them is how people learn though:)
I was more concerned with clarifying a few things when I wrote that post and there are 100's of people who come on this forum from time to time just to lurk so it's important to clear things up.
Yes we are talking about an easterly and the effects of it if it did happen.
These FI charts have to come in under 120hrs before excitement can be upped a level or three 0 -
And once they learn to read them...in 2D..... then they can start to appreciate the third dimension of the NAO and an SSW here and there and finally grow to love their Theta-e 0
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Agreed.
I was more concerned with clarifying a few things when I wrote that post and there are 100's of people who come on this forum from time to time just to lurk so it's important to clear things up.
Yes we are talking about an easterly and the effects of it if it did happen.
These FI charts have to come in under 120hrs before excitement can be upped a level or three
Totally agree, your post was good ! Wasn't just a rant which is important ! haha
Im having a little excited moment here, looking forward to the pub run putting us into a new ice age ! :pac:0 -
This is from the 06z gfs[folks reading later will see a different chart after 430 pm so my post then won't make sense],a model I'm not fond of that far out but this chart if it were to verify would have snow shower,after snow shower after snow shower pasting the East of the country from a very cold unstable irish sea airflow sourced off near russia somewhere.
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Deep Easterly wrote: »+1
The sky and general hue of the daylight are very much much enhanced during a good easterly. The sky actually looks blue between any clouds! and not the usual bleached white grey/brown tripe we get in maritime flows. This is because the air is much drier during an a proper easterly which results in less 'scattering' of light by the water content (humidity) of the atmosphere. Although if there is a haze, this can lessen the actual effect but always in a much more aesthetic and visual way.
Agree with you. Not only the colour of the sky but the light is so strange, comforting 0 -
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Look.
I'm sorry if I have offended you but I'm finding the mis reading of weather charts and the resulting flawed analysis is growing around here.
This is all very basic and no I'm not trying to be smarmy here so please don't take it like that
It may be basic to you but not to others.
The mis-reading of weather charts and stupid questions asked was what I loved about this forum. It was a learning environment and until recently I had learnt so much from it. Explanations were given and stupid questions answered with patience. I even loved the disagreements among the "experts"
Now all I can almost hear are collective sighs. I think this forum has become less about the weather, teaching, learning and fun and more about egos!
I know this is OT and will feck off now but I have been sitting on my hands for too long and feel kind of reckless this morning. It is sad to see something you loved be destroyed.0 -
OK so its a crime to question something posted round here now? Look half the new problem here imho is people taking offence where its not meant and then high horsing about it.Fcekin internet at times ...people taking things too much to heart.Look.
I'm sorry if I have offended you but I'm finding the mis reading of weather charts and the resulting flawed analysis is growing around here.
This is all very basic and no I'm not trying to be smarmy here so please don't take it like that
It may be basic to you but not to others.
The mis-reading of weather charts and stupid questions asked was what I loved about this forum. It was a learning environment and until recently I had learnt so much from it. Explanations were given and stupid questions answered with patience. I even loved the disagreements among the "experts"
Now all I can almost hear are collective sighs. I think this forum has become less about the weather, teaching, learning and fun and more about egos!
I know this is OT and will feck off now but I have been sitting on my hands for too long and feel kind of reckless this morning. It is sad to see something you loved be destroyed.
Remember the spoken word contains a lot more information than the written.
So reading a somewhat cross post doesn't mean the person isn't nice.
I may have been blunt but was and always will be conciliatory afterwards.
No need for anymore than that.
Now can we get back to the weather?
Quite breezy cool but sunny here in arklow today ... whoops wrong thread 0 -
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The GFS 06Z for Feb 1st not to dissimilar to the actual set up for November 30th 2010 when we got pounded with streamers coming off the Irish Sea. That November 30th brought some of the heaviest snow showers i have ever seen in Waterford. A repeat would be nice but bit too far out in FI for me to get excited just yet.
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This discussion has been closed.
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